Why 5G?

for Spectrum Futures 2017Bangkok, Thailand

by Gary Kimgary@fatpipes.biz

1

Threats Sometimes are Hard to See

source: Insight Research

Mission Statement

Where is the Value?

● Products/services become features● as telecom becomes part of the internet ecosystem● Value migrates elsewhere

Replace Half of Revenue Every 10 Years

source: Turk Telecom

Value of “Access” Drops 50% in 5 Years

source: AT Kearney

5G = Value Shift to Non-Human Revenue Growth

telco2research

Impact of Private Networks

* 70% of traffic on Latin American routes* 33% of traffic on Pacific routessource: TeleGeography

5G Can Help Restore Value

9

What the Data Shows

10

Value is the Heart of Business Model Change

source: Creative Connectivity

Connecting the Unconnected Creates Some Issues

source: Informa

Internet access = dumb pipeIf everyone connected, everyone can use OTT

Revenue Growth is Slowing, or Gone

source: GSMA Intelligence

Need is Not Obvious, in Most of Asia

source: GSMA

Asia is Different (Subs Up, ARPU Down Elsewhere)

source: Juniper Research

ARPU is Falling

source: techneconomyblog

Business Model is the Issue

source: Canonical

Challenge: “Free” or “Near Zero” Pricing

source: Cisco

With internet, people expect everything to be free

Mobile Data Will Help

source: Ericsson

ARPU Falling

source: strategy &

Growth is the Issue

source: ITU

But How Much? (Except India, China)?

source: Point Topic

Look at the Top Line

source: Strategy Analytics

Profit is an Issue

source: Strategy Analytics

All Products Have Life Cycles

source: Ali Sagheian

Remember 3G, 4G

source: Ali Saghaeian

Mobile Networks Also Have Life Cycles

source: Telegeography

All Telecom Products Have a Life Cycle

New Growth Drivers (Value) Needed

source: Ali Saghaeian

5G is Inevitable

source: Ericsson

What is 5G?

31

Orders of Magnitude Changes

source: Nokia

The Next Generation Air Interface

source: source: mobirank

Orders of Magnitude Difference

source: gsmaintelligence.com

Many Related Advances...

Virtualized Core (NFV, SDN)Virtualized Edge (Slicing)Small Cells (Backhaul dominates cost)Use “any spectrum” (below 2 GHz, Millimeter)Aggregate licensed and unlicensed spectrumMillimeter wave capacitySubstitute for fixed networkDesigned for new use cases (IoT)

Orders of Magnitude Will be Needed

source: Nokia

Capacity Scarcity Has Been the Norm

Scarcity to Abundance...

e-band communications

source: FCC

From Scarcity to Abundance

source: internetprovsechny.cz

Millimeter Wave Spectrum

source: National Instruments

What Happens When Supply Increases?

source: Strategy Analytics

● App providers become access providers?● What happens to “value,” retail price of access?

How to Increase Value in 5G Era?

source: Deloitte University Press

Key Attributes

● 1-10Gbps connections● 1 millisecond end-to-end delay (latency) ● 1000x bandwidth per unit area ● 10-100x number of connected devices● 99.999% availability● 90% reduction in network energy usage ● Up to 10-year battery life● M2M device support

5G = Internet of Things

source: techmazza

Virtual, Small Cell, Aggregated Spectrum

source: gadgetbytenepal.com/

Small Cells, MIMO, mWave are Complementary

source: Qorvo

Growth from “Non-Human” Users...

source: Ericsson

Enterprise Drives Revenue Opportunity

source: GSMA

Battery Life, Cost are Key for Many IoT Apps

● unattended operation● low device cost● low access cost● long battery life● low bandwidth● low latency

5G Early Adoption

source: GSMA

Early Deployment (Implies mmWave)

source: GSMA

Platform, App Roles (Hopefully)

source: GSMA

How do we get to 5G?for Spectrum Futures 2017Bangkok, Thailand

53

New Air Interfaces Every Generation

source: http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajeee/3/2/1/

Evolution from 4G: Aggregation

Evolution from 4G: Small Cell (Fiber to Light Pole)

source: Silicon Image

New Era of Licensed/Unlicensed Spectrum Use

source: www.researchgate.net

Spectrum Aggregation Key: Licensed, Unlicensed

source: Qualcomm

New Ways of Using Spectrum...

source: Qualcomm

Orders of Magnitude Performance Improvements

source: www.androidauthority.com

Spectrum Sharing

● Citizens Broadband Radio Service ● TV White Spaces● Licensed Assisted Access● Licensed Shared Access

Sharing by Priority, Time, Space

source: Intel

5G Will Use “Any” Spectrum

source: nutaq.com

Build on Advanced 4G...

Path to 5G Goes Through 4G Advanced

5G Uses 4G Advanced Investments

IoT is the Big Upside

67

Early Movers: U.S., China, Japan, South Korea, UK

source: Ericsson

5G = IoT

source: Business Insider

Internet of Things App Adoption, Existing Users

source: Inmarsat

5G IoT is a Business Model Revolution

source: www.gsmaintelligence.com

Partners Likely Necessary

source: www.gsmaintelligence.com

Infrastructure Sharing Might be Necessary

source: www.gsmaintelligence.com

Regulator IoT Issues

5G First Mobile Network for Non-Human Apps

source: i-e link

Moving up the Stack

source: Analysys Mason

5G = IoT = Enterprise Apps, Many Verticals

source:Qualcomm

Most of the Upside is Apps

source: ABI Research

Both Evolutionary and Revolutionary

• Evolutionary– MIMO– small cell– spectrum aggregation– virtual networks

• Revolutionary– millimeter wave for consumer apps– Orders of magnitude increase in capacity– Driven by enterprise users, apps– Revenue growth from non-human users

5G = Business Model Change = Move Up the Stack = Create New Value

source: Comcast

Legacy revenue was 89% of total in 2008; 51% in 2016

THANK YOU