who rules zimbabwe?:the military and zimbabwe’s …ccs.ukzn.ac.za/files/mangongera26march.pdf ·...

WHO RULES ZIMBABWE?:THE WHO RULES ZIMBABWE?:THE WHO RULES ZIMBABWE?:THE WHO RULES ZIMBABWE?:THE

MILITARY AND ZIMBABWE’S MILITARY AND ZIMBABWE’S MILITARY AND ZIMBABWE’S MILITARY AND ZIMBABWE’S

PROSPECTS FOR A DEMOCRATIC PROSPECTS FOR A DEMOCRATIC PROSPECTS FOR A DEMOCRATIC PROSPECTS FOR A DEMOCRATIC

BBBBREAKTHROUGHREAKTHROUGHREAKTHROUGHREAKTHROUGH

C H A R L E S C H A R L E S C H A R L E S C H A R L E S MMMM A N G O N G E R AA N G O N G E R AA N G O N G E R AA N G O N G E R A

P H D C A N D I D A T E , U K Z NP H D C A N D I D A T E , U K Z NP H D C A N D I D A T E , U K Z NP H D C A N D I D A T E , U K Z N

J A N U A R Y 2 6 , 2 0 1 4J A N U A R Y 2 6 , 2 0 1 4J A N U A R Y 2 6 , 2 0 1 4J A N U A R Y 2 6 , 2 0 1 4

1

.

PRESENTATION OUTLINEPRESENTATION OUTLINEPRESENTATION OUTLINEPRESENTATION OUTLINE

I.I.I.I. Introduction Introduction Introduction Introduction

II.II.II.II. Why Focus on the Military?Why Focus on the Military?Why Focus on the Military?Why Focus on the Military?

III.III.III.III. A Brief A Brief A Brief A Brief HHHHistoryistoryistoryistory

IV.IV.IV.IV. Militarization of the State Militarization of the State Militarization of the State Militarization of the State

V.V.V.V. The Military and the ‘Diamond Curse’The Military and the ‘Diamond Curse’The Military and the ‘Diamond Curse’The Military and the ‘Diamond Curse’

VI.VI.VI.VI. Possible ScenariosPossible ScenariosPossible ScenariosPossible Scenarios

VII.VII.VII.VII. RecommendationsRecommendationsRecommendationsRecommendations

2

INTRODUCTION: MY HYPOTHESISINTRODUCTION: MY HYPOTHESISINTRODUCTION: MY HYPOTHESISINTRODUCTION: MY HYPOTHESIS

The military has played a central role in The military has played a central role in The military has played a central role in The military has played a central role in

prolonging Zimbabwe’s democratic prolonging Zimbabwe’s democratic prolonging Zimbabwe’s democratic prolonging Zimbabwe’s democratic

transition. transition. transition. transition.

3

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

• Military has become more active in political Military has become more active in political Military has become more active in political Military has become more active in political processes processes processes processes

since 1999 since 1999 since 1999 since 1999 –––– 2000 2000 2000 2000

• SSSState tate tate tate of crisis since the of crisis since the of crisis since the of crisis since the 1990s resulting in: 1990s resulting in: 1990s resulting in: 1990s resulting in:

� Economic, political, social decline

�Culture of state violence

• 2008 disputed 2008 disputed 2008 disputed 2008 disputed electionelectionelectionelection

• Power sharing government between Power sharing government between Power sharing government between Power sharing government between 2009 2009 2009 2009 –––– 2013201320132013

• Opportunity for democratic transitionOpportunity for democratic transitionOpportunity for democratic transitionOpportunity for democratic transition

• Military derailed/prolonged transitionMilitary derailed/prolonged transitionMilitary derailed/prolonged transitionMilitary derailed/prolonged transition

4

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

• GNU failed to reform state institutionsGNU failed to reform state institutionsGNU failed to reform state institutionsGNU failed to reform state institutions

• Mugabe controlled key ministriesMugabe controlled key ministriesMugabe controlled key ministriesMugabe controlled key ministries

• 2013 2013 2013 2013 eeeelections won by ZPF lections won by ZPF lections won by ZPF lections won by ZPF

• Irregularities in elections Irregularities in elections Irregularities in elections Irregularities in elections

• Mugabe now firmly in control Mugabe now firmly in control Mugabe now firmly in control Mugabe now firmly in control

• Economy off the railsEconomy off the railsEconomy off the railsEconomy off the rails

• Isolation by the US and EUIsolation by the US and EUIsolation by the US and EUIsolation by the US and EU

• Support from China, SADC and the AU Support from China, SADC and the AU Support from China, SADC and the AU Support from China, SADC and the AU

5

WHY FOCUS ON THE MILITARY? WHY FOCUS ON THE MILITARY? WHY FOCUS ON THE MILITARY? WHY FOCUS ON THE MILITARY?

• Dim prospects for democratic transition without Dim prospects for democratic transition without Dim prospects for democratic transition without Dim prospects for democratic transition without

security sector reform security sector reform security sector reform security sector reform

• Complex partyComplex partyComplex partyComplex party----state conflationstate conflationstate conflationstate conflation

• Military control of natural resources (diamonds) Military control of natural resources (diamonds) Military control of natural resources (diamonds) Military control of natural resources (diamonds)

• Mugabe’s old age Mugabe’s old age Mugabe’s old age Mugabe’s old age

• Role of military postRole of military postRole of military postRole of military post----MugabeMugabeMugabeMugabe

• Sufficient attention not being paid to security sector Sufficient attention not being paid to security sector Sufficient attention not being paid to security sector Sufficient attention not being paid to security sector

reform reform reform reform

6

A BRIEF HISTORY: A BRIEF HISTORY: A BRIEF HISTORY: A BRIEF HISTORY:

THE THE THE THE MMMMILITARY AND POLITICSILITARY AND POLITICSILITARY AND POLITICSILITARY AND POLITICS

• Is Mugabe in charge? Is Mugabe in charge? Is Mugabe in charge? Is Mugabe in charge?

• Is there objective civilian control?Is there objective civilian control?Is there objective civilian control?Is there objective civilian control?

• Eldred Eldred Eldred Eldred MasunungureMasunungureMasunungureMasunungure/Mike Bratton /Mike Bratton /Mike Bratton /Mike Bratton ––––

‘coup by stealth’ ‘coup by stealth’ ‘coup by stealth’ ‘coup by stealth’

• Miles Miles Miles Miles TendiTendiTendiTendi –––– Mugabe is fully in charge Mugabe is fully in charge Mugabe is fully in charge Mugabe is fully in charge

7

A BRIEF HISTORY: A BRIEF HISTORY: A BRIEF HISTORY: A BRIEF HISTORY:

CIVILCIVILCIVILCIVIL----MILITARY RELATIONSMILITARY RELATIONSMILITARY RELATIONSMILITARY RELATIONS

• Difficult to think of Mugabe and ZANU (PF) outside of Difficult to think of Mugabe and ZANU (PF) outside of Difficult to think of Mugabe and ZANU (PF) outside of Difficult to think of Mugabe and ZANU (PF) outside of

the military the military the military the military

• LLLLiberation struggle in the 1960s and 70s iberation struggle in the 1960s and 70s iberation struggle in the 1960s and 70s iberation struggle in the 1960s and 70s

• Roles of ZANLA, ZIPRA and RFRoles of ZANLA, ZIPRA and RFRoles of ZANLA, ZIPRA and RFRoles of ZANLA, ZIPRA and RF

• VVVViolent purges and assassinations including: iolent purges and assassinations including: iolent purges and assassinations including: iolent purges and assassinations including:

�Herbert Chitepo, 1975

�Josiah Tongogara, 1979

• Palace Palace Palace Palace coupscoupscoupscoups

8

A BRIEF HISTORY:A BRIEF HISTORY:A BRIEF HISTORY:A BRIEF HISTORY:

CIVILCIVILCIVILCIVIL----MILITARY RELATIONSMILITARY RELATIONSMILITARY RELATIONSMILITARY RELATIONS

• IIIIntegration process in 1980 ntegration process in 1980 ntegration process in 1980 ntegration process in 1980

• Mutual suspicions Mutual suspicions Mutual suspicions Mutual suspicions –––– ZANLA, ZIPRA, RF ZANLA, ZIPRA, RF ZANLA, ZIPRA, RF ZANLA, ZIPRA, RF

• ‘Zanufication’ of the military ‘Zanufication’ of the military ‘Zanufication’ of the military ‘Zanufication’ of the military

• North Korean trained Fifth BrigadeNorth Korean trained Fifth BrigadeNorth Korean trained Fifth BrigadeNorth Korean trained Fifth Brigade

• GukurahundiGukurahundiGukurahundiGukurahundi massacres of the 1980s massacres of the 1980s massacres of the 1980s massacres of the 1980s

9

MILITARIZATION OF THE STATEMILITARIZATION OF THE STATEMILITARIZATION OF THE STATEMILITARIZATION OF THE STATE: : : :

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC ECONOMIC ECONOMIC COLLAPSE COLLAPSE COLLAPSE COLLAPSE

• Corruption and mismanagementCorruption and mismanagementCorruption and mismanagementCorruption and mismanagement

• Signs of strain in the mid 90s Signs of strain in the mid 90s Signs of strain in the mid 90s Signs of strain in the mid 90s

• 1997 1997 1997 1997 –––– cash gratuities to veteranscash gratuities to veteranscash gratuities to veteranscash gratuities to veterans

• Mugabe betrayed his vulnerabilityMugabe betrayed his vulnerabilityMugabe betrayed his vulnerabilityMugabe betrayed his vulnerability

10

MILITARIZATION OF THE STATE: MILITARIZATION OF THE STATE: MILITARIZATION OF THE STATE: MILITARIZATION OF THE STATE:

ECONOMIC COLLAPSEECONOMIC COLLAPSEECONOMIC COLLAPSEECONOMIC COLLAPSE

• Black Black Black Black Friday (November 14, 1997) Friday (November 14, 1997) Friday (November 14, 1997) Friday (November 14, 1997) –––– currency currency currency currency

collapsecollapsecollapsecollapse

• CCCCrucial rucial rucial rucial turning turning turning turning point in 2000 point in 2000 point in 2000 point in 2000

• Zimbabwean Zimbabwean Zimbabwean Zimbabwean military military military military intervention in DRCintervention in DRCintervention in DRCintervention in DRC

• Economic vs. geoEconomic vs. geoEconomic vs. geoEconomic vs. geo----political interestpolitical interestpolitical interestpolitical interest

• UN UN UN UN Panel of Experts Report on Panel of Experts Report on Panel of Experts Report on Panel of Experts Report on DRC DRC DRC DRC

• Zimbabwean military and resource plunder Zimbabwean military and resource plunder Zimbabwean military and resource plunder Zimbabwean military and resource plunder

11

MILITARIZATION OF THE STATEMILITARIZATION OF THE STATEMILITARIZATION OF THE STATEMILITARIZATION OF THE STATE: : : :

POLITICAL POLITICAL POLITICAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS

• De facto one party state until 1999De facto one party state until 1999De facto one party state until 1999De facto one party state until 1999

• Broad social movement emerged in mid 1990s Broad social movement emerged in mid 1990s Broad social movement emerged in mid 1990s Broad social movement emerged in mid 1990s

• DDDDemand for new constitution emand for new constitution emand for new constitution emand for new constitution

• Emergence of MDC in 1999 Emergence of MDC in 1999 Emergence of MDC in 1999 Emergence of MDC in 1999

• 2000 referendum on constitution 2000 referendum on constitution 2000 referendum on constitution 2000 referendum on constitution �� Mugabe’s Mugabe’s Mugabe’s Mugabe’s 1111stststst defeat defeat defeat defeat

• Reliance on violence, military, and other state Reliance on violence, military, and other state Reliance on violence, military, and other state Reliance on violence, military, and other state agenciesagenciesagenciesagencies

12

MILITARIZATION MILITARIZATION MILITARIZATION MILITARIZATION OF THE STATE: OF THE STATE: OF THE STATE: OF THE STATE:

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• The Joint Operations Command (JOC): The Joint Operations Command (JOC): The Joint Operations Command (JOC): The Joint Operations Command (JOC):

�De facto policy making organ

• Deployment to key institutions Deployment to key institutions Deployment to key institutions Deployment to key institutions

• Exclusive promotion of war veterans in Exclusive promotion of war veterans in Exclusive promotion of war veterans in Exclusive promotion of war veterans in

security agencies security agencies security agencies security agencies

• Allocation of prime landAllocation of prime landAllocation of prime landAllocation of prime land

13


POLITICAL POLITICAL POLITICAL POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTS

• Access to lucrative Access to lucrative Access to lucrative Access to lucrative government government government government contracts, contracts, contracts, contracts,

mining mining mining mining concessions, and prime land concessions, and prime land concessions, and prime land concessions, and prime land

• Joint ventures with Chinese firms in Joint ventures with Chinese firms in Joint ventures with Chinese firms in Joint ventures with Chinese firms in

diamonds diamonds diamonds diamonds

• Violence, intimidation, and lootingViolence, intimidation, and lootingViolence, intimidation, and lootingViolence, intimidation, and looting

• Government by ‘Operations’ Government by ‘Operations’ Government by ‘Operations’ Government by ‘Operations’

14

THE MILITARY IN POLITICSTHE MILITARY IN POLITICSTHE MILITARY IN POLITICSTHE MILITARY IN POLITICS

““““TTTThe he he he war veterans came to me and said, war veterans came to me and said, war veterans came to me and said, war veterans came to me and said,

‘President, we can never accept that our ‘President, we can never accept that our ‘President, we can never accept that our ‘President, we can never accept that our

country which we won through the barrel of country which we won through the barrel of country which we won through the barrel of country which we won through the barrel of

the gun can be taken merely by an the gun can be taken merely by an the gun can be taken merely by an the gun can be taken merely by an ‘X’ ‘X’ ‘X’ ‘X’ made made made made

by a ballpoint penby a ballpoint penby a ballpoint penby a ballpoint pen.”.”.”.”

-------- President Robert Mugabe President Robert Mugabe President Robert Mugabe President Robert Mugabe

15


“Security organisations will only stand in support of those “Security organisations will only stand in support of those “Security organisations will only stand in support of those “Security organisations will only stand in support of those

political leaders that will pursue Zimbabwean values, political leaders that will pursue Zimbabwean values, political leaders that will pursue Zimbabwean values, political leaders that will pursue Zimbabwean values,

traditions and beliefs for which thousands of lives were lost traditions and beliefs for which thousands of lives were lost traditions and beliefs for which thousands of lives were lost traditions and beliefs for which thousands of lives were lost

in the pursuit of Zimbabwe’s hard won independence, in the pursuit of Zimbabwe’s hard won independence, in the pursuit of Zimbabwe’s hard won independence, in the pursuit of Zimbabwe’s hard won independence,

sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests. We sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests. We sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests. We sovereignty, territorial integrity and national interests. We

will therefore not accept, let alone support or salute, will therefore not accept, let alone support or salute, will therefore not accept, let alone support or salute, will therefore not accept, let alone support or salute,

anyone with a different agenda that threatens the very anyone with a different agenda that threatens the very anyone with a different agenda that threatens the very anyone with a different agenda that threatens the very

existence of our sovereignty.”existence of our sovereignty.”existence of our sovereignty.”existence of our sovereignty.”

--------The Joint Operations Command (JOC), The Joint Operations Command (JOC), The Joint Operations Command (JOC), The Joint Operations Command (JOC),

JJJJanuary 2002anuary 2002anuary 2002anuary 2002

16


““““TTTThe he he he Constitution says the country should be protected by voting Constitution says the country should be protected by voting Constitution says the country should be protected by voting Constitution says the country should be protected by voting

and in and in and in and in the the the the June June June June 27 presidential 27 presidential 27 presidential 27 presidential election runelection runelection runelection run----off pitting our off pitting our off pitting our off pitting our

defense defense defense defense chief, chief, chief, chief, CdeCdeCdeCde. . . . Robert Mugabe, and Morgan Tsvangirai of Robert Mugabe, and Morgan Tsvangirai of Robert Mugabe, and Morgan Tsvangirai of Robert Mugabe, and Morgan Tsvangirai of

the MDCthe MDCthe MDCthe MDC----T, we should, therefore, stand behind our CommanderT, we should, therefore, stand behind our CommanderT, we should, therefore, stand behind our CommanderT, we should, therefore, stand behind our Commander----

inininin----Chief. Soldiers are not apolitical. Only mercenaries are Chief. Soldiers are not apolitical. Only mercenaries are Chief. Soldiers are not apolitical. Only mercenaries are Chief. Soldiers are not apolitical. Only mercenaries are

apolitical. We have signed and agreed to fight and protect the apolitical. We have signed and agreed to fight and protect the apolitical. We have signed and agreed to fight and protect the apolitical. We have signed and agreed to fight and protect the

ruling party’s principles of defending the revolution. If you have ruling party’s principles of defending the revolution. If you have ruling party’s principles of defending the revolution. If you have ruling party’s principles of defending the revolution. If you have

other thoughts, then you should remove that uniform.other thoughts, then you should remove that uniform.other thoughts, then you should remove that uniform.other thoughts, then you should remove that uniform.””””

--------Army Army Army Army Chief of Staff MajorChief of Staff MajorChief of Staff MajorChief of Staff Major----General General General General

Martin Martin Martin Martin ChedondoChedondoChedondoChedondo, May 2008, May 2008, May 2008, May 2008

17


““““AAAAs s s s soldiers, we will never be apologetic for supporting soldiers, we will never be apologetic for supporting soldiers, we will never be apologetic for supporting soldiers, we will never be apologetic for supporting ZANUZANUZANUZANU----PF because it is the only political party that has PF because it is the only political party that has PF because it is the only political party that has PF because it is the only political party that has national interests at heart. We cannot be seen supporting national interests at heart. We cannot be seen supporting national interests at heart. We cannot be seen supporting national interests at heart. We cannot be seen supporting a political party that is going against the ideals of a nation, a political party that is going against the ideals of a nation, a political party that is going against the ideals of a nation, a political party that is going against the ideals of a nation, which came by as a result of a liberation struggle, which which came by as a result of a liberation struggle, which which came by as a result of a liberation struggle, which which came by as a result of a liberation struggle, which saw many of the country’s sons and daughters losing their saw many of the country’s sons and daughters losing their saw many of the country’s sons and daughters losing their saw many of the country’s sons and daughters losing their lives. As soldiers we must support ideologies that we lives. As soldiers we must support ideologies that we lives. As soldiers we must support ideologies that we lives. As soldiers we must support ideologies that we subscribe to, I for one will not be apologetic for supporting subscribe to, I for one will not be apologetic for supporting subscribe to, I for one will not be apologetic for supporting subscribe to, I for one will not be apologetic for supporting ZANUZANUZANUZANU---- PF because I was part of the liberation struggle.PF because I was part of the liberation struggle.PF because I was part of the liberation struggle.PF because I was part of the liberation struggle.””””

--------Major Major Major Major General Martin General Martin General Martin General Martin Chedondo, Chedondo, Chedondo, Chedondo, May 2012 May 2012 May 2012 May 2012

18

COMMANDER IN CHIEF COMMANDER IN CHIEF COMMANDER IN CHIEF COMMANDER IN CHIEF

PRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABEPRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABEPRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABEPRESIDENT ROBERT MUGABE

19

ZDF COMMANDERZDF COMMANDERZDF COMMANDERZDF COMMANDER

GENERAL CONSTANTINE CHIWENGAGENERAL CONSTANTINE CHIWENGAGENERAL CONSTANTINE CHIWENGAGENERAL CONSTANTINE CHIWENGA

20

ZRP COMMISSIONER ZRP COMMISSIONER ZRP COMMISSIONER ZRP COMMISSIONER

GENERAL AUGUSTINE CHIHURIGENERAL AUGUSTINE CHIHURIGENERAL AUGUSTINE CHIHURIGENERAL AUGUSTINE CHIHURI

21

AIR FORCE OF ZIMBABWE COMMANDER AIR FORCE OF ZIMBABWE COMMANDER AIR FORCE OF ZIMBABWE COMMANDER AIR FORCE OF ZIMBABWE COMMANDER

AIR MARSHAL PERENCE SHIRI AIR MARSHAL PERENCE SHIRI AIR MARSHAL PERENCE SHIRI AIR MARSHAL PERENCE SHIRI

22

COMMISSIONER GENERAL PRISON SERVICES COMMISSIONER GENERAL PRISON SERVICES COMMISSIONER GENERAL PRISON SERVICES COMMISSIONER GENERAL PRISON SERVICES

MAJOR GENERAL PARADZAI ZIMONDI MAJOR GENERAL PARADZAI ZIMONDI MAJOR GENERAL PARADZAI ZIMONDI MAJOR GENERAL PARADZAI ZIMONDI

23


GNU AND THE MILITARYGNU AND THE MILITARYGNU AND THE MILITARYGNU AND THE MILITARY

• Control of Control of Control of Control of political party political party political party political party strategies strategies strategies strategies

• Violent 2008 runViolent 2008 runViolent 2008 runViolent 2008 run----off campaignoff campaignoff campaignoff campaign

• Operation Operation Operation Operation Makavhotera Makavhotera Makavhotera Makavhotera papi (who did you papi (who did you papi (who did you papi (who did you

vote for?) vote for?) vote for?) vote for?)

• ‘‘‘‘Short sleeve’ Short sleeve’ Short sleeve’ Short sleeve’ and ‘and ‘and ‘and ‘Long sleeve’ Long sleeve’ Long sleeve’ Long sleeve’ treatment treatment treatment treatment

24



• GNU potential for democratic transitionGNU potential for democratic transitionGNU potential for democratic transitionGNU potential for democratic transition

• Political settlement negotiated under Thabo Political settlement negotiated under Thabo Political settlement negotiated under Thabo Political settlement negotiated under Thabo

Mbeki and SADC Mbeki and SADC Mbeki and SADC Mbeki and SADC

• Mugabe kept control of the ‘hard power cluster’ Mugabe kept control of the ‘hard power cluster’ Mugabe kept control of the ‘hard power cluster’ Mugabe kept control of the ‘hard power cluster’

• CCCCreation of NSA to replace JOC reation of NSA to replace JOC reation of NSA to replace JOC reation of NSA to replace JOC

• JOC was never disbandedJOC was never disbandedJOC was never disbandedJOC was never disbanded

• Public denouncement of GNU by military Public denouncement of GNU by military Public denouncement of GNU by military Public denouncement of GNU by military

25



• General deployed to monitor the constitution making General deployed to monitor the constitution making General deployed to monitor the constitution making General deployed to monitor the constitution making process process process process

• Diamond revenues were never remitted to treasuryDiamond revenues were never remitted to treasuryDiamond revenues were never remitted to treasuryDiamond revenues were never remitted to treasury

• Funds deployed to strategic institutionsFunds deployed to strategic institutionsFunds deployed to strategic institutionsFunds deployed to strategic institutions————party, army, party, army, party, army, party, army, intelligenceintelligenceintelligenceintelligence

• 2013 election campaign funding2013 election campaign funding2013 election campaign funding2013 election campaign funding

• Henry Muchena (Air Marshal), Sidney Nyanungo (CIO Henry Muchena (Air Marshal), Sidney Nyanungo (CIO Henry Muchena (Air Marshal), Sidney Nyanungo (CIO Henry Muchena (Air Marshal), Sidney Nyanungo (CIO Director)Director)Director)Director)

• Took full charge of voter registration process Took full charge of voter registration process Took full charge of voter registration process Took full charge of voter registration process

26

THE MILITARY AND THE MILITARY AND THE MILITARY AND THE MILITARY AND TTTTHE ‘DIAMOND HE ‘DIAMOND HE ‘DIAMOND HE ‘DIAMOND

CCCCURSEURSEURSEURSE’

• Mining concessionsMining concessionsMining concessionsMining concessions

• Joint ventures with Chinese firms Joint ventures with Chinese firms Joint ventures with Chinese firms Joint ventures with Chinese firms

• $100 million$100 million$100 million$100 million loan agreement with Chinaloan agreement with Chinaloan agreement with Chinaloan agreement with China

• Construction of elite military and intelligence Construction of elite military and intelligence Construction of elite military and intelligence Construction of elite military and intelligence

training school training school training school training school

• Loan details kept secretLoan details kept secretLoan details kept secretLoan details kept secret

• Prime Minister barred from diamond fieldsPrime Minister barred from diamond fieldsPrime Minister barred from diamond fieldsPrime Minister barred from diamond fields

27

THE MILITARY AND THE MILITARY AND THE MILITARY AND THE MILITARY AND TTTTHE ‘DIAMOND HE ‘DIAMOND HE ‘DIAMOND HE ‘DIAMOND

CCCCURSE’ URSE’ URSE’ URSE’

• Illicit diamond sales Illicit diamond sales Illicit diamond sales Illicit diamond sales

• 2012 Parliamentary Portfolio Committee 2012 Parliamentary Portfolio Committee 2012 Parliamentary Portfolio Committee 2012 Parliamentary Portfolio Committee

Report on DiamondsReport on DiamondsReport on DiamondsReport on Diamonds

• Government is brokeGovernment is brokeGovernment is brokeGovernment is broke

• LLLLavish spending by political eliteavish spending by political eliteavish spending by political eliteavish spending by political elite

• Mail and Guardian Mail and Guardian Mail and Guardian Mail and Guardian (South Africa) Report (South Africa) Report (South Africa) Report (South Africa) Report

28

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

Scenario A: Continuity Scenario A: Continuity Scenario A: Continuity Scenario A: Continuity

• Mugabe remains alive and in power

• Military tightens its grip

• Pillage of natural resources

• International isolation persists

• Economic and social collapse

• Deepening poverty

• Citizen despondency

29

POSSIBLE SCENARIOSPOSSIBLE SCENARIOSPOSSIBLE SCENARIOSPOSSIBLE SCENARIOS

Scenario B: Transition in ZANU (PF)Scenario B: Transition in ZANU (PF)Scenario B: Transition in ZANU (PF)Scenario B: Transition in ZANU (PF)

•Mugabe unable to continue (incapacitation,

death)

•ZANU (PF) chooses successor:

�Emerson Mnangagwa

�Joyce Mujuru

30

POSSIBLE POSSIBLE POSSIBLE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS SCENARIOS SCENARIOS SCENARIOS

Scenario C: Democratic TScenario C: Democratic TScenario C: Democratic TScenario C: Democratic Transition ransition ransition ransition

• Security sector reform

• United opposition

• Citizen agency

• Reform of state institutions

• Credible electoral process

• International re-engagement, recovery and

reconstruction

31

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ZIMBABWEAN RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ZIMBABWEAN RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ZIMBABWEAN RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ZIMBABWEAN

ACTORSACTORSACTORSACTORS

• Lobby and advocacy on security sector Lobby and advocacy on security sector Lobby and advocacy on security sector Lobby and advocacy on security sector

reform reform reform reform

• Campaign on the ‘diamond curse’ Campaign on the ‘diamond curse’ Campaign on the ‘diamond curse’ Campaign on the ‘diamond curse’

• Target SADC strategically Target SADC strategically Target SADC strategically Target SADC strategically

• Broader democratization agendaBroader democratization agendaBroader democratization agendaBroader democratization agenda

• Internationalize the Zimbabwean crisis Internationalize the Zimbabwean crisis Internationalize the Zimbabwean crisis Internationalize the Zimbabwean crisis

32

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR

REGIONAL ACTORS (SADC + AU)REGIONAL ACTORS (SADC + AU)REGIONAL ACTORS (SADC + AU)REGIONAL ACTORS (SADC + AU)

• FFFFull implementation of constitutionull implementation of constitutionull implementation of constitutionull implementation of constitution

• Specific clauses on limited terms for the Specific clauses on limited terms for the Specific clauses on limited terms for the Specific clauses on limited terms for the

heads of securityheads of securityheads of securityheads of security

• Unfinished business of the Global Political Unfinished business of the Global Political Unfinished business of the Global Political Unfinished business of the Global Political

Agreement (GPA)Agreement (GPA)Agreement (GPA)Agreement (GPA)

• Role of other liberation movements Role of other liberation movements Role of other liberation movements Role of other liberation movements

33

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS FOR

INTERNATIONAL ACTORSINTERNATIONAL ACTORSINTERNATIONAL ACTORSINTERNATIONAL ACTORS

• Need for strategic reNeed for strategic reNeed for strategic reNeed for strategic re----think on sanctionsthink on sanctionsthink on sanctionsthink on sanctions

• Support to sustainable civil society Support to sustainable civil society Support to sustainable civil society Support to sustainable civil society initiativesinitiativesinitiativesinitiatives

• International lobbying and advocacy on International lobbying and advocacy on International lobbying and advocacy on International lobbying and advocacy on security sector reformsecurity sector reformsecurity sector reformsecurity sector reform

• Work with SADC and AUWork with SADC and AUWork with SADC and AUWork with SADC and AU

• Humanitarian supportHumanitarian supportHumanitarian supportHumanitarian support

34

who rules zimbabwe?:the military and zimbabwe’s …ccs.ukzn.ac.za/files/mangongera26march.pdf ·...

Documents