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Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain Kathy Conway Co-facilitator: Southern Oregon Climate Action Now http://socan.info k [email protected] 541 – 324 – 4501

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Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain. Kathy Conway Co-facilitator: Southern Oregon Climate Action Now http://socan.info k [email protected] 541 – 324 – 4501. Outline. Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire:What’s Behind the Curtain

Kathy ConwayCo-facilitator:

Southern Oregon Climate Action Nowhttp://socan.info

[email protected] 541 – 324 – 4501

http://socan.info/
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
Page 2: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Outline Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Page 3: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Outline Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Page 4: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
Page 5: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
Page 6: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html
Page 7: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Wildfires

10 F makes difference between a high fire year and a low fire year.(http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html )

http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html
http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html
Page 8: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Outline Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Page 9: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Rogue Valley Temperature History and Projections

2099

1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F

Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.100F

1900 2000

1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F

Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.170F

Page 10: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Projected Temperature Increases

2035-2045Average1.6 – 4⁰F

(51.6 – 53.8⁰F)

Winter 1 – 3.5⁰F

(39.1 – 41.7⁰F)

Summer1 – 6⁰F

(64.4 – 69.5⁰F)

August 1 – 7.5⁰F

(67.1 – 73.5⁰F)

2075-2085Average

4.3 – 8.2⁰F(54.3 – 58.2⁰F)

Winter 3.4 – 6.3⁰F

(41.5 – 44.5⁰F)

Summer5.5 – 11.8⁰F

(69.1 – 75.4⁰F)

August6.7 – 16.8⁰F

(72.7 – 82.8⁰F)

Page 11: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Historic Precipitation

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

National increaseof 5%

Page 12: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Projected Precipitati

onSeasonal Pattern –

HighEmissions Scenarios

Page 13: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Crater Lake (May, 2011)

Page 14: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Declining Mid-Elevation Snowfall 7,000 – 8,000 ft

1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s0

100200300400500600700

Average annual snowfall at Crater Lake HQ

From when data were first collected

Inch

es o

f sn

owfa

ll

Source: Crater Lake National Park

25% Reduction

N. California 1950 - 2000

Below 7500’ 13% declineAbove 7500’ 12% increase

Applegate Lake

By the end of the century, there may be 90%

reduction.

Page 15: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Outline Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Page 16: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012cf 1951-1980

20112010

2008

2009

2000-2009 was hottest

decade on record

Nine of the ten hottest years recordedoccurred in that decade

2012

Since 1970s + 1.3⁰FSince 1880s + app. 1.65⁰F

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

The 15 hottest year recordedare post 1997

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
Page 17: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Future Temperature Range

http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html

There is much variability –depends on what we do.

http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
Page 18: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Outline Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Page 19: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Home

Page 20: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Incoming Visible light

Transformed toInfra-red radiation= heat – re-radiated

outSome infra-red

radiation is absorbed by

atmospheric gases (CO2, methane,

oxides of nitrogen)

Remainder escapes

into space

The Atmospheric “Greenhouse

Effect"

WARNING:Not drawn to scale

Page 21: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

NOTE: Absorbency is

in lower atmosphere – which is

where we live

Page 22: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

If atmospheric gas density increases,

more heat is retained by this ‘thermal

blanket’

Surface - LowerAtmosphere

War

min

g

Less escapes

into space

Page 23: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

The CO2 / Temperature Pattern

Page 24: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Finally – Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation of Global

Warming…

Page 25: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Outline Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Page 26: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

B UT

23 X CO2 296 X CO2

Approximately 75% > 75%

The Problem

Greenhouse gases released by human activity:• Carbon dioxide• Methane• Oxides of nitrogen

2000 Global Emissions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
Page 27: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Source: EPA’s Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Materials and Land Management Practices

2006 U.S. GHG Emissions: sectors viewU.S. Total GHG Emissions (2006) = 7.1 billion MT CO2e

Page 28: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

What produces carbon emissions locally? Good Co, Eugene, OR GHG Inventory

http://rvcog.org/cogboard/2011/Dec_14/RVCOG-REA-Final_PPT-121511.pdf

http://rvcog.org/cogboard/2011/Dec_14/RVCOG-REA-Final_PPT-121511.pdf
http://rvcog.org/cogboard/2011/Dec_14/RVCOG-REA-Final_PPT-121511.pdf
Page 29: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Outline Just a bad fire year? Local projections Temperature Green House Gas Basics Take Action SOCAN

Page 30: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

http://socan.info Co-Facilitators:

Alan Journet [email protected] Kathy Conway [email protected]

MEETINGS: Last Tuesday of the month (except September 17th)Special Topic Presentation 6:00 – 6:30 pm

General Meeting: 6:30 – 8:00 pmMedford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

http://socan.info/
mailto:[email protected]
mailto:[email protected]
Page 31: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Mission & Goal Statement The Mission of SOCAN is:

• To recognize the urgency for bold action against climate change• To promote awareness and understanding about the causes and

consequences of climate change• To develop solutions and motivate concerned citizens to take action

Our Goal:Collaborating with individuals and organizations throughout the world, we seek a reduction in the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to 350 parts per million. To achieve this, we encourage both personal and governmental actions that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from individual to global levels.

Page 32: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Focus Groups Community Education Green Energy Natural Resources Government

Page 33: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Projects Divestment from Fossil Fuels Climate change in the curriculum Weather Reporting Presentations Federal, State & Local Governments Networking Bear Creek Salmon Festival Booth (October 5, 2013)

Page 34: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire:What’s Behind the Curtain

What will you do to protect future generations?

http://socan.info

http://socan.info/
Page 35: Where There’s Smoke There’s Fire: What’s Behind the Curtain

Want to Learn More?'Climate Change and the Rogue Valley;' a ten week SOU/OLLI course; will be presented Thursdays 1:00 - 3:00 pm from September 12th at the SOU/RCC HEC in Medford - contact SOU/OLLI. (541) 552-6048 'A Rogue Climate for the Valley;' a three week Ashland North Mountain Park Nature Center course; Tuesdays 7:00 - 9:00 pm from October 1st - contact the Nature Center. (541) 488-6606 'A Rogue Climate for Our Valley;' three week Coyote Trails Jefferson Nature Center Course; Saturdays 1:00 - 3:00 pm from November 9th - contact Coyote Trails: 541-772-1390

tel:(541)%20552-6048
tel:(541)%20488-6606
tel:541-772-1390

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