what's the future of cleantech - online brainstroming results

THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH

RESULTS FROM GLOBAL

ONLINE BRAINSTORMING

10/2011-1/2012

Santtu Hulkkonen & Jani Timonen, Cleantech Finland

Objectives

• To identify future trends in cleantech globally

• To evaluate the probability and impact of issues affecting cleantech

development

Background

• Brainstorming was conducted by Cleantech Finland and Fountain Park in

10/2011–1/2012

• Up to 1500 expert answers and comments from 66 countries

Primary affiliation %-share

Business 60,4 %

Government 12,5 %

Research or science 7,1 %

Student 2,8 %

Investor 2,1 %

Media 5,7 %

Other 9,4 %

Copyright © Cleantech Finland 2012

OBJECTIVES & BACKGROUND

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

There are only minor differences in what people talk about between the

highest participation countries (India, China, UK, USA, Finland)

• 4 key aspects

• Public opinion

• Individual people, consumers

• Technology to solve one or more of the key challenges

• Major occurrence or disruption changing current ways of thinking

• More information is wanted

• New information through research, testing, experimentation, etc.

• Distribution of information is very important

• Concrete examples and individual experiences are making huge difference

• Political decision makers, business and investors react and follow

rather than drive change


WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT WHEN ASKED: “THINK

ABOUT FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. WHAT COULD

SIGNIFICANTLY SHAPE THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH?”

Public sector role, energy efficiency and business infra. In spontaneous responses

transportation, social media, food and green construction are the least relevant themes


WORLD




Participants from India highlight waste clearly higher than other parts of the world


INDIA

% = share of answers that

include the keyword for this class




Respondents in China put special emphasis on people issues


CHINA






UK responses are in line with the overall results


UK


Include the keyword for this class






USA participants rank innovation higher than the rest of the world. In other areas the

responses are in line with the overall results.


USA



EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY

AND IMPACT


WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT AND WHAT IS CONSIDERED TO

HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY (ALL)

Blue bar = volume of the theme in all answers

Green bar = importance (relative)

• People talk the most

about public sector role,

energy efficiency and

business infra

• The highest probability is

given to economy, energy

efficiency and business infra

related topics

• The second high priority

group of topics includes

renewable energy, food and

people

• Lowest probability topics

are nuclear, public sector

and non-renewables


WHAT IS SHAPING THE FUTURE OF CLEANTECH

WITH HIGH PROBABILITY?

• GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT

• People talk the most about public sector role, business infra and energy efficiency

• Raising cost of utilizing currently used energy resources etc. leads to changes in decision

making

• Political will is wanted and needed to speed up the progress

• PEOPLE

• Awareness of the real cost of pollution growing

• Consumers should know about the advantages of clean technologies

• Cheaper technologies can be used by people that have never even dreamed of cleantech

• Individual people find greener ways of thinking, living and acting

• Research into what drives people to use cleantech products

• GLOBAL TRENDS

• Business environment has integrated – investors act more globally than locally

• Global network for cooperation in forums of R&D and solutions

• The greatest economic opportunities and environmental challenges are in Asia

• Innovative urban solutions and systems is a future business growth area, i.e. smart

urbanization, smart grid, clean transportation


Value-based research – People will eventually get tired of "only" trying to make money

Curtailment of nuclear power

If investment banks had a 10+ year focus – Getting humanity back to 10+ year focus

will change how people see cleantech and how clean products show in ROI comparisons

Social media as interaction – a way of common action – network effect will cause

the acceleration of the need and demand for cleantech solutions

One well-known industrial country taking a clear lead – One prominent industrial

country taking a clear lead by launching a long-term cleantech program that is politically

anchored in all political camps, bold and includes everything from policy to funding

“Investing into natural capital becomes profitable. We will finally realize that nature is not

our biggest enemy we need to take advantage of, but in fact our best business partner.”


POTENTIAL WILD CARDS

WHAT PEOPLE TALK ABOUT AND WHAT HAS

HIGH POTENTIAL IMPACT (ALL)

Blue bar = volume of the theme in all answers

Green bar = importance (relative)

• People talk the most about

the importance and impact

of communication and PR in

raising awareness and

changing attitudes towards

cleantech and the

environment in general

• Other high impact areas

are water, air/climate,

nuclear and transportation

• Lower potential impact is

given to innovation, food

and social media related

topics


HIGH PROBABILITY & HIGH POTENTIAL IMPACT

Highest significance areas are energy efficiency and economy. Second group in terms of

significance includes water, air/climate, communication/PR and people related topics.

Note: Green construction is included in energy efficiency


WORLD

LOOKING AT KEY CLASSES


ENERGY EFFICIENCY

• Shortage of resources and cost of energy are key drivers

towards improved efficiency

• Using technology to improve efficiency in production,

transportation, storage and use

• Urbanization continues in the world and increasingly efficient

energy usage is critical

Shortage of energy resources. Rapid urbanization worldwide and a ubiquitous real-time networked civil environment will require an exponential broadening of energy resources. Localized sources of supply (renewables), efficient usage and cost effective storage are needed.

Smart grid

development

Smart urban area

development

Implementation of

regulation in smart

cities and the

attraction of people

interest in being

more attentive to

energy efficiency.

Citizens rewarded for sustainable living Citizens could receive tax rebates or other incentives for becoming more sustainable; i.e. using less energy at home, growing their own food, recycling water, etc. Some type of tracking/accounting system could be developed so that citizens have some financial incentive to maintain a more sustainable lifestyle. Rewards could come from companies that manufacture certain products or from local governments.


ECONOMY

• Economic situation is very challenging and takes focus away from

environmental aspects

• Economic growth leads to growing challenges on the environment

• If/when the global focus is shifted more towards environmental

issues, new business opportunities start to open up for cleantech

companies

Global government

policies. Due to economic downturn

(and several other reasons)

the decision-making in

many countries (incl. the

U.S.) is inconsistent, and

the energy and

environmental policies may

change or discontinue

abrubtly. This significantly

hampers the development

and deployment of clean

technologies.

Serious investments to infrastructure's modernization In case if Russia finds/stimulates investments to modernization of the infrastructure of for instance municipal housing economy, new segments for cleantech will be immediatly opened.

Economic growth in Asia and

the need to limit pollutants World population is growing as

well as the world economy.

Biggest growth takes place in

developing countries, esp in Asia.

On the other hand, pollution and

the limeted resources shape the

development towards more

efficient and less polluting society

and technologies.


WATER

• Importance of clean water raising significantly

• Efficient water treatment systems are vital (fresh water, sea

water, sewage, recycling)

• New solutions to water efficiency

• Clean water will be a political issue one day, it may even become

a reason for war

Shortage of water resources.

Clean, viable water resources

are under stress. Changing

climates, due to long lasting

high atmospheric pressure

zones, are causing droughts,

which bring populations in

competition with agriculture.

Clean technologies that find

efficient solutions - i.e., water

minimization, recycling,

harvesting, etc. - are needed.

Water treatment

more and more

important

drinking water

resources, if cheap

energy then no

problem (sea water),

sewage treatment, to

save the ecological

conditions.

Water shortages are looming

as the greatest near-term

problem following from global

warming.

Good sweet clean water is

scarce. We will obviously have to

go to the salt water. New

technology in this area with a low

cost would no doubt help a lot of

countries.


AIR, CLIMATE

• Need to shift from just watching and waiting to action

• Financial support and financial penalty both play a role

• Charging-based clear regulation drives actions

• Public opinion and awareness of individuals are important factors

Cost of pollution

If public and private bodies would

have a way to assess individual

emissions. Money talks. If

polluting is more expensive, more

new technology will be applied.

Public opinion and everyone's

will to change thinking.

We should move from climate

change fear to actions and do

something instead of waiting.

Public opinion is crucial to get

money for cleantech investments

and to get companies develop

new ways of production etc.

Financal support some clean technologies are too expensive for "normal people". so there must be financial support from the government. there are several support systems in austria, but there must be done more to reach (or to get closer to) emission goals (like kyoto)

Global agreement has been

tried already twice (at least). This

card has been played, and it

showed to be vague. What can

turn up better is global

agreements between cities (i.e.

C40 movement). Completely

bypassing states and countries.

Cities are anyways where the

battle on climate change is

played and lost or won.


COMMUNICATION, PR

• Need to increase awareness globally

• Politicians make legislation but the public elects them. Public

opinion is necessary to move politicians.

• Developing countries are the main factor

• Social media can have a major role

The awareness of consumers Through possibilities as social media and internet, linking the ideas of people will enable the cleantech revolution to truly begin. As the consumers will have better possibilities to understand their impacts, but at the same time devote effort to turning them into positive impacts, rather than negative.

Consumers can have a strong impact. But there shoud be organized ways to organize the power otherwise it will be something here and there but not really anything big. Could it be Greenpeace? I don´t know. It should be unpolitical movement.

Different segments have different

perspective towards the clean

technology and considering the

high capital investment with ROI

taking long time the impact is

slow . Every individual of the

planet need to realize the

importance of sustainability and

Govt along private organization

need to create the campaigns

and promotional activities.


PEOPLE

• Consumer behavior is key

• Pressure to political decision-making needs to come from the people

• Changes are expected to be slow but there are new signs

• 100s of millions of people will move to cities – only ecocities can

make this possible

Dramatic changes in

energy supplies

change thinking

For example, dramatic

catastrophe at a

nuclear powerplant in

Japan, oil spill in U.S -

change the way of

thinking of people,

governments etc

Consumers become prosumers This is happening. ZipCar. AirBNB. This will crack consumerism from the inside. Leading to degrowth and end of fun life for many. Maybe not the politicians and others measuring things by GDP. Even for that purpose, we must get new measures so that once GDP goes down, we can show something else (positive) goes up.

People's interest in

consumption will change as

they notice that this can have an

effect. People might even enjoy

simple life styles in future more

than consuming. Nature and

saving the planet will become the

most important goal in people's

functions.


TOP 3 TAKE-AWAYS

POWER OF NETWORKS

• Scale local challenges to global solutions – and global challenges to local solutions

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE

• Self-evident solutions have high global demand (e.g. energy efficiency, renewable energy, water and waste treatment)

• Innovations save environment and economy

INFORMATION IS WANTED AND NEEDED

• Attitude makes the big difference

• Different ways to boost cleantech industry (education, government, discussion)

• Public opinion and public sector are key factors


KIITOS. TACK. THANK YOU.

www.cleantechfinland.com

www.solved.fi


http://www.cleantechfinland.com/

http://www.solved.fi/

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