what’s on your horizon? ncvo third sector foresight [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
our immediate future (next 90 mins)
what foresight is & isn’t
what’s on your horizon
how the 2010s will look in the rear view mirror
[who’s in the room?]
foresight is…understanding your changing world
(and so making better decisions)
spotting the storm before it hits (so buying you time to plan)
preparedness not prediction
foresight avoids problems later
foresight helps you choose a hill (so you can plan the right moves to get there)
you have to make time(or you’ll always be fire-fighting)
we should have seen it coming
but so should they (& others…)
‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent,
it’s the most adaptable’
‘it’s not the strongest that survives, or the most intelligent,
it’s the most adaptable’
so, how do we do foresight ?
it’s a three-part process (we can’t do it all today) :
what drivers may affect your organisation or its beneficiaries (for good or ill) ?
so what are the implications ?
now what to do about it ?
‘the future is already here – it’s just unevenly distributed’ william gibson
we make it easy: 100 drivers (trends) on 3s4.org.uk
a good old tool : PEST
4 mins, in twos
trends affecting you
/ your beneficiaries
by 2020
politics
(& legal)
economics
(& environment)
society technology
top drivers spotted by the sector
last 3 years
training in 9 regions (search VSNW onwww.3s4.org.uk)
6-month-long foresight coaching for 8 umbrella bodies (search them too!)
looking back from 2020
(permanent beta, please don’t sue)
the ‘teens’ began with desire for change [coalition, electoral reform]
‘there’s no more money’
the coalition response was part of a global
shift in how the state delivers: the 90s now
seem as long ago as the 70s did in 2010. why?
underlying ‘crunch4’ of economy, climate, resources
& stubborn, rising need
a rubik’s cube of new old words
big good
govt local
citizens society
the social falloutsplits cut many ways:
soaring expectations (eg EU & UK equal rights law)vdwindling receipts
white-ish, ‘rich’, baby-boomers-plus vyoung, diverse, poor, ‘undeserving’ migrants
in 2010, 36p of each £1 of charity income was from govt
cuts took us back to 2003/04 (Tory pre-election figures)ie: pre-ChangeUp investment
Statutory funding of the VCS, 2001/01- 2007/08 (£billions): NCVO
perpetual innovation
eg: social impact bonds
2010 pilot
peterborough prison
raised £5m
if reoffending cut by 7.5%+, MoJ would share out savings
but many questions needed resolving. eg: what counts? who counts it?
social media impacted everything
not just comms & campaigns
the network effect caused explosive
growth. in 2010 twitter had 180m
users (after just 4 years)
(almost) the death of print media
in 2020 your mobile is the main way
you use the web
but the ‘IT poor’ are a real problem
like it or not, massive shift happens (click twice)
50+ global web philanthropy
exchanges in 2010 eg kiva
you are the philanthropist
direct relationship with
projects
by 2020, giving happens without the middle-man
‘atomised collectivity’ (what in 2010 we still called ‘community’)
small government (& small society?)
web-enabled micro-volunteering of
what Clay Shirky called your
‘cognitive surplus’
single equalities act
► ‘diversity mosaic’? not blending
is there still a role for generalist
organisations when people can source
everything direct?
looking back from 2020
what does all this mean for our near future?
a drive to local solutions,individual & community responsibility
grassroots swell in community organising – inspired by Obama (etc), facilitated by technology, driven by need
politicians of all hues try to conceptualise and harness this (NESTA ‘mass localism’)
but no consensus on:big / smallsociety / government
polls say we don’t think experts/govt know best, & support others taking responsibility and being more involved. but fewer of us want to be more involved!
Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-relatives in the last 12 months Source: Citizenship Survey
there are so many ifs. for instance….
how do the statutory bodies in your local area influence your organisation’s success? (%)
Ipsos-MORI for OTS
we can coach you, scan for you, bring you & others together to study a shared threat or opportunity…
ncvo third sector foresight www.3s4.org.uk