what's hot in a flat world
TRANSCRIPT
What’s Hot in a Flat World
Dan GordonDirector of Research, Valhalla Partners
[email protected]: @pipik
A Word About Chasms & Disruptive Technologies
What Makes the Flat World Flat?
• Friedman argument –essentially “speeds and feeds” – is correct as far as it goes
• But there are obstacles beyond network bandwidth and latency
Friedman’s 10 Flattening Factors
1. The Berlin Wall2. Netscape3. Work Flow Software4. Open Sourcing5. Outsourcing
6. Off shoring7. Supply Chains8. In sourcing9. In-forming10. The Steroids
Bits to Atoms
Tape/DVD Rental
Politics
Newspapers
Books
Music CDs
Shrink-wrap Software
?
It’s not the Internet, it’s the World Computer
• Bursty workloads are common in all layers of computing
• Two strategies:
– Overprovision
– Dynamically allocate
• World Computer is dynamic allocation of everything
The Cloud Infrastructure
VMWare’s Mantra
COST EFFICIENCYQUALITY OF SERVICE
BUSINESS AGILITY
IT as a ServiceBusiness ProductionIT Production
Optimizing
Production of IT Services
Optimizing
Consumptionof IT Services
Cloud wars
Borderless Security
Unfortunately, all roads lead to…
• Bane of an earlier decade, the PKI
• What does it accomplish?
• Can it be salvaged?
Convergence/Divergence
Networks… Converge
• Proprietary networks killed by Ethernet/IP/TCP
– X.25
– VANs
– EDI
– TDM
– Fibre Channel
– AOL
– Cable?
• Networks become dumb pipes despite wishes of their owners
Edge Devices… Diverge
• The “right” device trumps the “one” device
• New devices– Smartphones
– Netbooks
– Tablets
– Nettops
– Set-top boxes?
• New devices can anchor and consolidate value chains
Mobile client wars
What’s the Apple/Android Rivalry All About?
• An Old Story from the 80’s
• It’s all about the apps, stupid
• Steve Jobs vs. Bill Gates vs. Sergey & Larry
Ad-sponsored Universe: Audience, not Inventory
• Content is not king, audience is
• Content can draw an audience, but so can:– Flashfads– (Social) Interaction– Search– (Software) Interaction
• Enduring winners can draw an enduring audience
• Good ads make the right offer to the right audience in the right setting
Some Audience Plays
Obvious
• Facebook– Cf. AOL
• Social Shopping
• MMOGs and other immersive environments
• Data-based audiences
Not-So-Obvious
• Groupon/Living Social
• Huffington Post
• Mechanical Turk
Big Data
Ad Wars
Video as the New Text
The New TextThree eras of Informing, Communicating, Entertaining, Instructing, Persuading
< Gutenberg 1450-2020 2020
Ruling Class Face-to-face Read & Write Video
“Moorlocks” Read & Write Read & Write Read & Write
“Masses”Spectacles and
StoriesRead & Write Video
TheaterDistributor
TV episode,
long-form
TV
PC
Phone
Subscribers/
Users/
Attendees
Advertisers
ISP
Big Screen
Carrier
Aggregator (Portal,
Publisher)
Computer
Mobile specialist
Agencies
“Buy
Side”
“Sell S
ide”
UGC, social
Film, ultra-
long-form
Professional
short-form
Broadcast network Local affiliate
Broadcaster
Programmer MVPD
DVD distributor
4/1/2010
Video ecosystem: Who delivers what content to whom
DVD player
Set-top box
