what will it take to end extreme poverty?
DESCRIPTION
This is a presentation on 'What will it take to end extreme poverty?' by Andy P. Sumner of King’s College London. He gave this presentation in November 2013 for the internal launch of the 2013 Development Co-operation Report: Ending Poverty.TRANSCRIPT
What will it take to end extreme poverty?
Andy SumnerKing’s College London
The storyline so far…
1. Progress on $1.25 poverty, 1990-2010 (China essential part of story)
$1.25 poor (mills), 1990-2010
1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
TotalTotal exc. ChinaChina
Edward and Sumner (2013)
2. Looking ahead: An emerging post-ODA world for all but about 15-20 countries? (IMF
growth forecasts)
1990 1993 1998 2000 2003 2008 2009 2010 2020 est. 2030 est.0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
MICs
LICs
Edward and Sumner (2013)
3. So, where will the $1.25 poor live, 2010-2030?
Strong growth + falling inequality = 300m poor in 2030
2010 2015 2020 2025 20300%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MIC stableMIC fragileLIC stableLIC fragile
4. But a more likely scenario…? Moderate growth + historical inequality trends = 600m poor
(of which half to two-thirds in MICs depending on assumptions)
2010 2015 2020 2025 20300%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MIC stableMIC fragileLIC stableLIC fragile
5. So, where has $1.25 poverty fallen?
$1.25 poor (mills), 1990-2010
1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Stable countries excluding China, Indonesia and Viet-nam
Fragile states (OECD list)
Edward and Sumner (2013)
Seems to be two emerging types of fragile states:
Boomers – About half of fragile states notably better off GDP per capita, 2000-2010 (these are unlikely to be conflict/post-conflict). Big rises in forex & gold raise ODA questions?
Long runners – About half of fragile states are stagnant, 2000-2010 (these are very likely to be conflict/post-conflict countries). Likely to need ODA for 100 years or forever?
Fragile states GDP pc PPP ranges from $300 to $11,000 – too broad to make sense of? (Same problem as LIC/MIC)
6. Are there 2 emerging types of fragile states?
7. And is ending $1.25/$2 poverty just the beginning?
Eco
n g
row
th
Eco
n g
row
th
Eco
n g
row
th
Eco
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Eco
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Eco
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row
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Pessimistic Optimistic Pessimistic Optimistic Pessimistic Optimistic Current inequality trends Static inequality ‘Best-ever’ historic distribu-
tion2010 2030
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Under $1.25 per capita
Under $2 per capita
$2-$10 per capita
Poor (mills)
Edward and Sumner (2013)
8. Strong growth alone not enough to end $1.25 poverty
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Extrapo-lated, Pes-simisticExtrapo-lated, Op-timisticStatic, Pes-simisticStatic, Op-timisticBest, Pes-simistic
$1.25 poor (mills)
Edward and Sumner (2013)
9. So, what is inclusive growth…?
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
Per
cen
tage
ch
ange
of
co
nsu
mp
tio
n p
er c
apit
a
Fractile location (%)
1990 to 2010 Global average $1.25 a day $2 a day $10 a day $50 a day
Aggregate: HFC
Filled: No
NA/S option: 1
Input Criteria
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
Perc
enta
ge ch
ange
of
cons
umpti
on p
er c
apit
a
Fractile location (%)
1990 to 2010 Global average $1.25 a day $2 a day $10 a day $50 a day
Aggregate: HFC
Filled: No
NA/S option: 1
Input Criteria
Vietnam
Ethiopia
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
Perc
enta
ge ch
ange
of
cons
umpti
on p
er ca
pita
Fractile location (%)
1990 to 2010 Global average $1.25 a day $2 a day $10 a day $50 a day
Aggregate: HFC
Filled: No
NA/S option: 1
Input Criteria
China
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0
Per
cen
tage
ch
ange
of
co
nsu
mp
tio
n p
er c
apit
a
Fractile location (%)
1990 to 2010 Global average $1.25 a day $2 a day $10 a day $50 a day
Aggregate: HFC
Filled: No
NA/S option: 1
Input Criteria
Brazil
Edward and Sumner (2013)
10. So, what for policy?
1. New country groupings - current groupings past sell by date?
2. Policies for ‘better-off developing societies’ (BODS) = concessional lending for major infrastructure to reconnect ‘LICs within MICs’ to growth (spatially inclusive growth)
3. Policies for 2 types of fragile states – ‘Boomers’ (more focus on governance of growth?) & ‘long-runners’ (who knows?)
4. Horizon scanning - a post-ODA world for all but 15-20 countries? Perhaps a DCR in 2030: Development Cooperation in a world of ‘two middles’?