what lessons can asia draw from capital controls in brazil during 2008–2012?

7/30/2019 What Lessons Can Asia Draw from Capital Controls in Brazil during 20082012?

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F@DJ Yorejmi ^fphr Qhrjhs

Ybft Chssoms Afm Fsjf @rfw g rol

Afpjtfc Aomtrocs jm Drfzjc `urjmi

4>>24>64?

Zotbjm K jmkfrfe# Jcfm Moy#fm Bufmbufm [bhmi

Mo- 041Lfy 4>61

Fsjfm @hvhcoplhmt Dfme Jmstjtuth


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Pbh Yorejmi fphr shrjhs js f aomtjmuftjom og tbh gorlhrcy mflh` @jsaussjom fphr shrjhs5 tbhmuldhrjmi og tbh pfphrs aomtjmuh wjtbout jmthrruptjom or abfmih- F@DJs worejmi pfphrsrhgchat jmjtjfc j hfs om f topja fm frh posth omcjmh gor jsaussjom- F@DJ hmaourfihs rhf`hrs topost tbhjr aollhmts om tbh lfjm pfih gor hfab worejmi pfphr "ijvhm jm tbh ajtftjom dhcow*-Qolh worejmi pfphrs lfy `hvhcop jmto otbhr gorls og pudcjaftjom-

Quiihsth ajtftjom;

K jmkfrfe# Z-# J- Moy# fm B- [bhmi- 4>61-Ybft Chssoms Afm Fsjf @rfw grol Afpjtfc Aomtrocs jmDrfzjc ùrjmi 4>>24>64? F@DJ Yorejmi ^fphr 041- Poeyo; Fsjfm @hvhcoplhmt Dfme Jmstjtuth-Fvfjcfdch; bttp;//www-f`dj-ori/worejmi,pfphr/4>61/>8/42/8960-chssoms-fsjf- rfw-afpjtfc-aomtrocs-drfzjc/

^chfsh aomtfat tbh futbors gor jmgorlftjom fdout tbjs pfphr-

Hlfjc; ykjmkfrfeNf`dj-ori5 moyNbfwfjj-hù5 frwhmzbNilfjc-aol

Zotbjm K jmkfrfe js rhshfrab ghccow ft tbh Fsjfm @hvhcoplhmt Dfme Jmstjtuth "F@DJ* fmrhf`hr ft tbh Qabooc og Orjhmtfc fm Fgrjafm Qtu jhs "QOFQ*# Xmjvhrsjty og Comòm- JcfmMoy js fssoajfth proghssor og haomoljas ft Wjatorjf Dusjmhss Qabooc fm Xmjvhrsjty ogBfwfjj- Bufmbufm [bhmi js chaturhr ft Xmjvhrsjty og Zore fm fssjstfmt proghssor ftAbjmhsh Xmjvhrsjty og Bomi Eomi-

Pbh vjhws hxprhssh` jm tbjs pfphr frh tbh vjhws og tbh futbor fm ò mot mhahssfrjcyrhgchat tbh vjhws or pocjajhs og F@DJ# tbh F@D# jts Dofr og @jrhators# or tbh iovhrmlhmtstbhy rhprhshmt- F@DJ òhs mot iufrfmthh tbh faaurfay og tbh `ftf jmacu`h jm tbjs pfphrfm faahpts mo rhspomsjdjcjty gor fmy aomshquhmahs og tbhjr ush- Phrljmocoiy ush lfymot mhahssfrjcy dh aomsjsthmt wjtb F@D oggjajfc thrls-

Fsjfm @hvhcoplhmt Dfme JmstjtuthEfsuljifshej Dujc jmi 2G1,4,8 Efsuljifshej# Abjyo`f,eu

Poeyo 6>>,7>>2# K fpfm

Phc; %26,1,18:1,88>>Gfx; %26,1,18:1,8896XTC; www-f`dj-oriH,lfjc; jmgoNf`dj-ori

4>61 Fsjfm @hvhcoplhmt Dfme Jmstjtuth
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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F@DJ Yorejmi fphr 041 K jmkfrfe# Moy# fm [bhmi

Fdst rfat

@rjvhm dy wfvhs og gorhjim afpjtfc jmgcows fm outgcows# Jmòmhsjf# tbh Thpudcja og Eorhf# fm`Pbfjcfm`flomi shvhrfc otbhr hlhrijmi lfrehtsbfvh rhsorth` to afpjtfc aomtroc pocjay sjmah4>>7- Frh afpjtfc aomtrocs hgghatjvh? Aomtrocs om afpjtfc jmgcows bfvh dhhm hxphrjhmajmi frhmfjssfmah sjmah 4>>2# wjtb shvhrfc proljmhmt Fsjfm fm Cftjm Flhrjafm aoumtrjhs

jlpchlhmtjmi tbhl- Yh goaus om Drfzjc# wbjab jmstjtuth gjvh abfmihs jm jts afpjtfc faaoumtrhijlh ovhr 4>>24>66- Xsjmi tbh symtbhtja aomtroc lhtbo # wh aomstruat aoumthrgfatufcs "j-h-#Drfzjc wjtb mo pocjay abfmih* gor hfab og tbhsh abfmihs- Yh gjm mo hvj hmah tbft fmy tjibthmjmiog aomtrocs wfs hgghatjvh jm rhùajmi tbh lfimjtu`hs og afpjtfc jmgcows# dut wh odshrvh solhlo`hst fm sbort,cjvh suaahss jm prhvhmtjmi gurtbhr `hacjmhs jm jmgcows wbhm tbh afpjtfcaomtrocs whrh rhcfxh - Yh bypotbhsjzh tbft prjah,dfsh afpjtfc aomtrocs omcy phrahptjdch hgghatjs to dh goum jm tbh aomthmt og tbh sjimfc tbhy drofàfst rhifr jmi tbh iovhrmlhmts cfrihrjmthmtjoms fm shmsjdjcjtjhs- Jm tbh afsh og Drfzjc# jts chgt,og,ahmthr iovhrmlhmts wjccjmimhss torhlovh aomtrocs wfs phrahjvh fs f mothwortby jm jaftjom tbft tbh iovhrmlhmt wfs mot fsbostjch to tbh jmthrmftjomfc gjmfmajfc lfrehts fs lfmy hxphath jt to dh- Dfsh om tbhsh gjm jmis#tbh hgghatjvhmhss og afpjtfc aomtrocs sbouc dh vjhwh om f afsh,dy,afsh dfsjs# toihtbhr wjtbtbh pocjtjafc haomoly aomsj hrftjoms# fm otbhr pocjay toocs# j-h-# gorhjim hxabfmih jmthrvhmtjom-

KHC Acfssjgj aftjom; G14# I41# H7>


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Aomthmts

6- Jmtroùatjom --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14- Afpjtfc Aomtrocs fm Gcows jm DrfzjcPbh @ftf @htfjcs -------------------------------------------------- 8

4-6 Pbh Aomtrocs ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 84-4 Pbh Gcows ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8

1- Lhtboòcoiy ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 70- Thsucts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :

0-6 Thsucts gor Afpjtfc Jmgcows fm Hxabfmih Tfth --------------------------------------------------- :0-4 Qullfry og Hlpjrjafc Gjm jmisAfpjtfc Aomtrocs fs f Qjimfc ---------------------------690-1 Drfzjc fm` DTJA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------62

8- Ybft Afm Fsjf Chfrm? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6:7- Afvhfts fm Guturh Thshfrab ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6:Thghrhmahs -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------46Fpphm jx F; Hstjlftjom Thsucts gor Qymtbhtja Fmfcysjs --------------------------------------------------------------40Fpphm jx D; Yhrh Drfzjcjfm Afpjtfc Aomtrocs Fmtjajpfth`? --------------------------------------------------------49Fpphm jx A; Aorrhcftjom dhtwhhm Hlhrijmi ôrtgocjo Gum Thshfrab fm Dfcfmah og ^fylhmtsQtftjstjas @ftf ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------16Fpphm jx @; Aoumtry Yhjibts gor Qymtbhtja Afpjtfc Gcows to Drfzjc -------------------------------------------14


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1

6- JMPTO@XAPJOM

Aomtrocs om afpjtfc jmgcows bfvh dhhm hxphrjhmajmi f phrjo sjljcfr to f rhmfjssfmah sjmah tbhdhijmmjmi og tbh icodfc gjmfmajfc arjsjs jm 4>>2- Pbjs rhmfjssfmah bfs lfmjghsth jtshcg lostjlportfmtcy jm proljmhmt afshs og mhw aomtrocs dhjmi put jm pcfah# lost motfdcy jm Jahcfm #

Jmòmhsjf# tbh Thpudcja og Eorhf# ^hru# fm Pbfjcfm -6 Jm aomkumatjom wjtb tbjs rhhlhrihmah ogaomtrocs fs fm fatufc pocjay# tbh tbhorhtjafc cjthrfturh bfs sbjgth # wjtb shvhrfc aomtrjdutjoms tbfthxpcfjm tbh possjdch f`vfmtfihs og sbort,thrl aomtrocs usjmi tbhorhtjafc lo`hcs-4

Lfydh tbh lost promoumah sbjgt bfs oaaurrh ft tbh Jmthrmftjomfc Lomhtfry Gum "JLG*# wbjabf`voafth tbh rhlovfc og fcc aomtrocs om outgcows fm jmgcows tbrouibout tbh 6::>s-

1 Pbh FsjfmArjsjs og 6::9/6::2# bowhvhr# jmjtjfth f vhry scow proahss og aomvhrsjom wjtbjm tbh JLG tbftaucljmfth rhahmtcy wjtb jts `hajsjom to hxpcjajtcy fm ophmcy support tbh jlposjtjom og aomtrocsom afpjtfc jmgcows-0

Bhrh# wh frh jmthrhsth jm hxfljmjmi wbhtbhr afpjtfc aomtrocs om jmgcows# jlposh ft tbh tjlh og

fm jmgcow surih# frh hgghatjvh? Fm jg tbhy frh# wbft frh tbhjr hgghats? Yh ftthlpt to fmswhrtbhsh quhstjoms usjmi tbh Drfzjcjfm hxphrjhmah og 4>>24>66 jm jlposjmi mhw "prjah,dfsh`*aomtrocs fs tbh icodfc gjmfmajfc arjsjs hmgoc h - F prhvfjcjmi vjhw js tbft aomtrocs sbouc omcy dhjlposh jm tbhsh ejm`s og arjsjs ajraulstfmahs# rftbhr tbfm fs dusjmhss,fs,usufc pocjajhs5 fm`tbjs posjtjom kustjgjhs our abojah to goaus om Drfzjcs pocjay ùrjmi tbh hvocutjom og tbh icodfcgjmfmajfc arjsjs-

Pbh dfsja prhljsh og tbjs mhw JLG stfmah om afpjtfc aomtrocs js tbft tbhshsbouc dh jlposh wbhm aoumtrjhs frh gfajmi f afpjtfc jmgcow surih fm fgthr otbhr pocjayfcthrmftjvhs bfvh dhhm hxbfusth -

8

Pbhrh frh drof cy gjvh possjdch jlpfats og afpjtfc aomtrocs om jmgcows; "j* rh uah tbh voculh ogafpjtfc jmgcows5 "jj* abfmih tbh aolposjtjom og jmgcows "jm faaor fmah wjtb tbh sphajgja aomtrocsjlposh *5 "jjj* jlpfat tbh rhfc hxabfmih rfth "prhvhmtjmi fm fpprhajftjom*5 "jv* hmfdch f lorhjm`hphm`hmt pursujt og lomhtfry pocjay "fs jt rhcfxhs tbh jmthrmftjomfc trjchllfs aomstrfjmts*5fm "v* jmarhfsh gjmfmajfc stfdjcjty-

7

6Pbh lost dfsja jstjmatjom js dhtwhhm aomtrocs om outgcows fm jmgcows- Pbh haomoljas cjthrfturh aomsjsthmtcy gjm s

aomtrocs om outgcows fs jmhggjajhmt fm bfrlguc- Djmjaj# Butabjsom# fm Qabjm chr "4>6>* provj h f rhahmt hlpjrjafcftthlpt to jgghrhmtjfth dhtwhhm tbh jlpfat og aomtrocs om outgcows fm jmgcows-

Yh frh umfdch to `hfc jrhatcy wjtb tbh shaom jlpfat

"aolposjtjom og gcows* ijvhm our `ftf cjljtftjoms fm aboosh mot to hxfljmh tbh jlpfat omgjmfmajfc stfdjcjty sjmah tbjs js f comihr thrl jlpfat# fm our goaus bhrh js om tbh sbort thrl "1lomtbs*- Yh tbus goaus om tbh voculh og afpjtfc jmgcows# om tbh hxabfmih rfth# fm om òlhstjalomhtfry pocjay "tbh jmthrhst rfth*-

4K hfmmh "4>64f* provj hs f shchatjvh sullfry og tbjs mhw tbhorhtjafc cjthrfturh5 f lorh rhahmt hxfljmftjom tbft

cooes ft tbh jlpfat og afpjtfc faaoumt pocjajhs om tbh rhfc hxabfmih rfth js fvfjcfdch jm K hfmmh "4>64d*-

1Pbh JLGs aflpfjim to cjdhrfcjzh afpjtfc gcows aucljmfth` jm fm ftthlpt to jmshrt tbjs fjl jmto jts abfrthr- Qhh K oyahfm Moy "4>>2* gor `htfjcs fm hlpjrjafc hvj hmah-

0Pbh lost rhahmt sullfry og tbjs mhw JLG vjhw js fvfjcfdch jm JLG "4>64*- Gjiurh 6 jm Ostry ht fc- "4>66* provj hs f

sullfry og tbh afvhfts fm prhaom jtjoms tbft# faaor jmi to tbh JLG# sbouc faaolpfmy tbh jlposjtjom ogaomtrocs-

8Echjm "4>64* hlpcoys f rhcfth jstjmatjom dhtwhhm aomtrocs fs ifths "thlporfry fm sphajgja lhfsurhs* fmàomtrocs fs wfccs "fjljmi to dcoae lost or fcc aross,dor hr afpjtfc trfmsfatjoms rhiucfrcy*-

7Pbh hvj hmah om gjmfmajfc stfdjcjty jm ihmhrfc# fm` jm pfrtjaucfr fdout tbh jlpfat og aomtrocs om tbh cjehcjboo og

gjmfmajfc arjshs js qujth ljxh "shh# gor hxflpch# Icjae# Iuo# fm Butabjsom 4>>7*-


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0

Pwo rhahmt survhy pfphrs om afpjtfc aomtrocs "Lfiu # Thjmbfrt# fm Toiogg 4>665 Ostry ht fc-4>6>* gjm tbft tbh hlpjrjafc cjthrfturh om tbh jlpfats og afpjtfc aomtrocs js jmaomacusjvh# wjtbsolh odshrvh hgghats om tbh aolposjtjom og gcows# dut vhry cjttch hgghat om voculhs og gcows"fm hvhm chss firhhlhmt om tbh jlpfat og aomtrocs om tbh hxabfmih rfth fm pocjay jmthrhstrfths*-9

Fs Lfiu # Thjmbfrt# fm Toiogg "4>66* pojmt out# tbjs hvfcuftjom og afpjtfc aomtrocs cjthrfturhsugghrs grol shvhrfc fppchs,to,orfmihs prodchls- Lost rhchvfmt to our wore frh two prodchls;Gjrst# tbh cjthrfturh lostcy jimorhs tbh bhthroihmhjty og afpjtfc aomtrocs jlposh faross aoumtrjhsfm ovhr tjlh# fm ushs aross,aoumtry aolpfrjsoms tbft utjcjzh aomtroc jm jahs tbft bj h tbhshjstjmatjoms "tbh omhs `hvhcoph dy Ljmjfmh U4>>0\# Abjmm fm Jto U4>>7\# fm Qabjm chr U4>>:\

frh grhquhmtcy ush`*- Qhaom # tbh afsh stu jhs cjthrfturh goaushs fclost hxacusjvhcy om tbh twoposthr abjc rhm og afpjtfc aomtrocs# Lfcfysjf "outgcows* fm Abjch "jmgcows*-

2

Fmotbhr jgghrhmah tbft fpphfrs jlportfmt js tbh jstjmatjom dhtwhhm tbh sbort, fm comi,thrljlpfats og afpjtfc faaoumt pocjajhs- Comi,thrl jlpfats# wbjch pothmtjfccy lorh jlportfmt# frhihmhrfccy lorh jggjauct to j hmtjgy prhajshcy# fm tbjs bfs ahrtfjmcy dhhm tbh afsh jm tbjscjthrfturh- Lfmy og tbh pfphrs tbft ò lfmfih to j hmtjgy solh prhajsh jlpfat og aomtrocs# ò soomcy jm tbh sbort thrl# fm gfjc to gjm fmy comihr thrl hgghats- Pbh JLG# jm jts support gor

rhaomsj hrjmi tbh ush og afpjtfc aomtroc fs f pocjay# friuhs tbft tbhjr ush sbouc dh thlporfry#fm tbhjr fjl js prhajshcy to bfvh f sbort,thrl hgghat om tbh voculh og afpjtfc jmgcows- Yh tbusgoaus hxacusjvhcy om tbh quhstjom og tbh sbort thrl# fm jimorh comi,thrl hgghats# wbjab frhprodfdcy umj hmtjgjfdch wjtb our lhtboòcoiy# hvhm jg tbhy hxjst ft fcc-

Yh goaus om f sht og aomtrocs jlposh "fm rhcfxh * dy Drfzjc sjmah 4>>2# jm fm ftthlpt toaomtroc tbh floumt og afpjtfc gcowjmi jmto tbh aoumtry- Dy goausjmi om Drfzjc ùrjmi tbh icodfcgjmfmajfc arjsjs# wh jrhatcy hxfljmh tbh JLGs support gor jlposjtjom og aomtrocs jm tbh gfah ogafpjtfc jmgcow surihs jm f aoumtry tbft bfs gjmfmajfc lfrehts tbft frh cfrihcy ophm to afpjtfcgcows-

Yh ush ljaro,chvhc `ftf om afpjtfc gcows grol lutufc gum`s jmvhstjmi jmthrmftjomfccy# fm f mhwlhtboòcoiy to hstjlfth tbh aoumthrgfatufc "mo jlposjtjom og aomtrocs*- Yh ush f

lhtboòcoijafc jmmovftjom rhahmtcy gorlfcjzh jm Fdf jh# @jflom # fm Bfjmluhcchr "4>6>*- Pbhlhtboòcoiy "bhmahgortb F@B* js dfsh om sjlucftjmi aom jtjoms fgthr fm hxoihmous hvhmt "jmtbhjr afsh# f abfmih jm tbh tfx rfth# jm ours# tbh jlposjtjom or abfmih jm tbh ruchs iovhrmjmiafpjtfc jmgcows*- Pbh symtbhtja aoumthrgfatufcs aomstruatjom js dfsh om tbh rhcftjomsbjp to faomtroc iroup- Pbh F@B fciorjtbl òhs mot prhsulh to jlposh fmy f boa fssulptjoms fdouttbh cjehcy aomtroc iroup# dut rftbhr `hrjvhs tbjs aomtroc iroup fs f whjibth fvhrfih ogodshrvftjoms grol fcc tbh mom,trhfth umjts og odshrvftjom wjtb whjibts hstjlfth grol prh,trhftlhmt `ftf "jm our afsh tbh mom,trhfth umjts frh aoumtrjhs tbft bfvh mot abfmih tbhjrafpjtfc faaoumt pocjajhs ùrjmi our sflpch*- Pbh F@B proahùrh fccows us to aomstruat f mo,pocjay,abfmih aoumthrgfatufc fm tbus lhfsurh jm `htfjc tbh jlpfat og tbh aomtrocs- Jt òhs motrhqujrh us to lfeh lfmy struaturfc fssulptjoms tbft wouc bfvh dhhm jggjauct to kustjgytbhorhtjafccy-

Po dh tborouib# wh mhh to gjm f wfy to hxfljmh fcc gjvh possjdch jlpfats- Yh bfvh whhecy`ftf om afpjtfc jmgcows grol lutufc gum`s fm hxfljmh tbh hvocutjom og tbhsh jmgcows jm tbh

9Yh ò mot provj h f sjimjgjafmt rhvjhw og tbjs hxthmsjvh cjthrfturh sjmah tbhsh two rhahmt survhys frh fvfjcfdch- Fmhfrcjhr survhy og tbjs cjthrfturh js H`wfr s "6:::*-

2Lfcfysjf gflouscy jlposh thlporfry aomtrocs om afpjtfc outgcows jm tbh fgthrlftb og tbh Fsjfm arjsjs og 6::9/6::2#fm tbjs fat ihmhrfth f bhfth `hdfth om tbh topja- Abjch jlposh f sht og tfxhs om sbort,thrl gcows jm tbh 6::>stbft whrh gfjrcy wj hcy phrahjvh fs suaahssguc jm chmitbhmjmi tbh lfturjty og gcows-


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8

fgthrlftb og tbh jlposjtjom og aomtrocs- Our `ftf ò mot fccow us to hxfljmh tbh jlpfat ogaomtrocs om otbhr typhs og gcows# suab fs gorhjim jrhat jmvhstlhmt or dfme cofms# dut tbh gcowswh hxfljmh frh rhcftjvhcy rhprhshmtftjvh-:

4- AF^JPFC AOMPTOCQ FM@ GCOYQ JM DTF[JCPBH @FPF@HPFJCQ

Jm f` jtjom to hxfljmjmi tbh jlpfat om hqujty gcows#wh cooe gor fmy jlpfat og tbh aomtrocs om hxabfmih rfth- Yh ush tbh sflh symtbhtja aomtroclhtboòcoiy "F@B* to `hvhcop fm fcthrmftjvh aoumthrgfatufc hxabfmih rfth wjtbout aomtrocs-Fifjm# tbh F@B lhtboòcoiy fccows us to sejrt tbh jggjaucty og wh` jmi our fmfcysjs to fmy omh

hxabfmih,rfth, hthrljmftjom lo`hc# sjmah tbh cjthrfturh om tbh `hthrljmftjom og hxabfmih rfthsjs dotb voculjmous fm aomthmtjous- Yh jlpchlhmt tbh sflh lhtboòcoiy gor jmthrhst rfths# dutsjmah jmthrhst rfth pocjay abfmih vhry cjttch ùrjmi tbjs phrjo jm Drfzjc# our lo`hc js mot ioo`hmouib to afpturh faaurfthcy f symtbhtja aomtroc wjtb f ioo gjt gor tbh hx,fmth `ftf- Ijvhm tbftcjljtftjom# wh ò mot prhshmt our rhsucts rhifr jmi jmthrhst rfths dut drjhgcy `hsarjdh tbhl ft tbhhm og tbh mhxt shatjom- Yh ò mot hxfljmh gjmfmajfc stfdjcjty sjmah our goaus js tbh sbort thrl "1lomtbs* rftbhr tbfm tbh comi thrl# wbjab js ft tbh aorh og tbh gjmfmajfc stfdjcjty friulhmt-

4-6 Pbh Aomtrocs

Drfzjc cjdhrfcjzh jts afpjtfc gcow rhijlhs irfùfccy stfrtjmi grol tbh hfrcy 6::>s# aucljmftjmi jmfm fclost aolpchthcy ophm afpjtfc faaoumt dy tbh lj ,4>>>s# jmacu jmi f gchxjdch hxabfmih rfthrhijlh "shh Ioc gfkm fm Ljmhccf U4>>8\ fm Afrvfcbo fm Ifrajf U4>>2\ gor `htfjcs# fm Dfdffm Eoehmymh U4>66\ gor fm hvfcuftjom og tbjs afpjtfc faaoumt rhijlh jm tbh rum,up to kust dhgorhtbh icodfc gjmfmajfc arjsjs*- Fgthr f gfjrcy drjhg phrjo og mo tfxhs om gorhjim afpjtfc trfmsfatjoms#tfxhs whrh rhjmtroùah jm Lfrab 4>>2 ft tbh rfth og 6-8( om gjxh`,jmaolh jmvhstlhmts-6>Jmvhstlhmts rhcfth to hqujtjhs rhlfjmh hxhlpt grol tfxhs gor f wbjch-66 Pbh tfx wfs rhùah`to zhro jm Oatodhr 4>>2 ft tbh phfe og tbh icodfc gjmfmajfc arjsjs# wbhm tbh hxabfmih rfth aflhum`hr `hprhajftjom prhssurhs "fs jm lfmy otbhr dji hlhrijmi lfrehts*- F 4( tfx om gjxh ,

jmaolh fm hqujty jmgcows wfs rhjmtroùah jm Oatodhr 4>>:# fm jts fppcjaftjom wfs wj hmh`tbh mhxt lomtb- Pbh tfx wfs cfthr jmarhfsh to 7( jm two stfihs "jm Oatodhr 4>6>*# dut rhùah`to 4( jm K fmufry 4>66-64

4-4 Pbh Gcows

Pbh whhecy lutufc gum` gcows `ftf wh ush frh grol tbh Hlhrijmi ôrtgocjo Gum Thshfrab"H^GT* `ftfsht- Yh afcaucfth tbh whhecy gcows to f sphajgja aoumtry fs tbh fiirhifth gcowsabfmmhch sphajgjafccy to tbjs aoumtry "grol lutufc gum`s wbosh goaus js aoumtry,sphajgja*- Gorrodustmhss# wh fcso afcaucfth tbh drof rhijomfc gcows to Cftjm Flhrjaf# wbjab frh tbh sul og fccgcows abfmmhch to tbjs rhijom jmacu jmi gcows tbft tfriht f drof`hr rhijomfc lfreht# h-i-# Cftjm

:F aolpfrjsom wjtb afpjtfc gcow ftf grol tbh JLGs Dfcfmah og fylhmts Qtftjstjas ftfsht js jm Fpphm jx A-

6>Pbjs tfx om gjmfmajfc ophrftjoms# emowm fs tbh JOG "jlposto sodrh ophrfhs gjmfmahjrfs*# wfs fcso ush ùrjmitbh 6::>s-

66Jm Lfy 4>>2# tbh tfx wfs hxthm`h to aovhr sjluctfmhous ophrftjoms to prhvhmt ajraulvhmtjom og tbh jmgcow tfx"wbjab wfs fppfrhmtcy wj hsprhf *-

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0- THQXCPQ

0-6 Thsucts gor Afpjtfc Jmgcows fm` Hxabfmih Tfth

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symtbhtja aomtroc tbft fssulhs mo abfmih jm pocjay- Pbhsh gjiurhs sbow tbh aoumthrgfatufchvocutjom og afpjtfc gcows bf tbh abfmihs jm afpjtfc faaoumt pocjay mot oaaurrh - Yh sullfrjzhtbhsh rhsucts abromocoijafccy gor hfab abfmih jm Drfzjcs afpjtfc faaoumt pocjajhs ovhr 4>>24>66-

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j mot put fmy aomtrocs jm pcfah-6:

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64 Lfrab 4>>2

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Gjiurh 6d; Pfxjmi Gjxh` Jmaolh JmvhstlhmtHxabfmih Tfth

64 Lfrab 4>>2

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66

Gjiurh 4f; Auttjmi Gjxh` Jmaolh PfxAfpjtfc Gcows

41 Oatodhr 4>>2

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64

Gjiurh 4a; Auttjmi Gjxh` Jmaolh PfxHxabfmih Tfth

41 Oatodhr 4>>2

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Yh gjm mo hvj hmah tbft tbh jlposjtjom og aomtrocs bf fmy jlpfat om tbhhxabfmih rfth "Gjiurh 1d*-


15/37


61

Gjiurh 1f; Pfxjmi Qtoae fm` Dom` Jmvhstlhmt ft 4(Afpjtfc Gcows

4> Oatodhr 4>>:

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60

fm gour og 4>>: fm 4>6># tbh post,aomtroc jmgcow dool hpjso`hs shhl to dh cfrih fm umjquh"sjmah tbh fatufc js sjimjgjafmtcy cfrihr tbfm tbh symtbhtja fm umjquh to Drfzjc rhcftjvh to CftjmFlhrjafm gum`s*- Pbh aomtrocs j mot lfmfih to sthl tbh voculh og tbhsh jmgcows# tbouib tbhylfy bfvh pro`uah otbhr `hsjrfdch outaolhs "lorh om tbft dhcow*- Jm tbh mhxt abfmih jmpocjay# prhshmth jm Gjiurh 0d# tbh JOG wfs gurtbhr jmarhfsh to 7( omcy 4 whhes fgthr tbhprhvjous jmarhfsh "Oatodhr 4>6>*- Fifjm# tbh gurtbhr tjibthmjmi og aomtrocs fpphfrs jmhgghatjvh jm

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Gjiurh 0f; Jmarhfsjmi Pfxhs grol 4( to 0(Afpjtfc Gcows

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Gjiurh 0d;

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Gjiurh 8f; Th`uajmi Pfxhs grol 7( to 4(Afpjtfc Gcows

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69

Gjiurh 8a; Th`uajmi Pfxhs grol 7( to 4(Hxabfmih Tfth

1 Kfmufry 4>66

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cjljtftjoms# wh afmmot thst tbjs possjdjcjty-


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Yby j wh gjm fm fsyllhtrja jlpfat? Yby js tbhrh f sjimjgjafmt jlpfat wbhm aomtrocs whrhrhlovh`? Pbh jmthrvjhws tbft whrh aomùath dy Gordhs ht fc- "4>64* suiihst tbft lfmy lomhylfmfihrs whrh lorh jmthrhsth jm tbh sjimfc aomthmt og tbh afpjtfc faaoumt pocjay abfmih rftbhrtbfm jm tbh jrhat jlpfat og tbh abfmihs om tbhjr tfx cjfdjcjty fm tbhrhgorh om tbhjr dottol cjmhs-Drfzjc# tbrouibout tbjs phrjo # wfs aomtrocch dy tbh chgt,og,ahmthr Yorehrs ^frty bhf`h dyCucf-44

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Our bypotbhsjs js tbft prjah,dfsh # ljc afpjtfc aomtrocs omcy phrahptjdch hgghats frh to

dh goum jm tbh aomthmt og tbh sjimfc tbhy drofàfst rhifr jmi tbh iovhrmlhmts cfrihr jmthmtjomsfm shmsjdjcjtjhs- Jm Cucfs afsh# tbh iovhrmlhmt wfs wj hcy phrahjvh fs fldjvfchmt tolfrehts# fm hsphajfccy to tbh jmthrmftjomfc afpjtfc lfrehts- Pbus# fm jlposjtjom og "gfjrcy ljc *aomtrocs wfs mot phrahjvh fs mhws fm tbus bf mo jlpfat- F wjccjmimhss to rhlovh aomtrocs#bowhvhr# fs bfpphmh jm Oatodhr 4>>2 jm tbh lj ch og tbh icodfc post,Chblfm gjmfmajfc pfmjafm tbhm fifjm jm K fmufry 4>66# kust fgthr tbh trfmsjtjom grol Cucf to @jclf Tousshggsf`ljmjstrftjom# whrh dotb phrahjvh fs mothwortby jm jaftjoms tbft tbh iovhrmlhmt wfs mot fsbostjch to tbh jmthrmftjomfc gjmfmajfc lfrehts fs lfmy hxphath jt to dh- Pbh rhlovfc og aomtrocswfs tbus hgghatjvh sjmah tbh prhsulptjom wfs tbft tbh iovhrmlhmt bf solh fmtjpftby togjmfmajfc lfrehts fm gorhjim jmvhstors- Pbjs suiihsts tbft tbh sflh pocjay lfy bfvh f jgghrhmtjlpfat wjtbjm f pocjtjafc hmvjromlhmt jm wbjab tbh iovhrmlhmt js phrahjvh jgghrhmtcy-

Pbh whjibts wh odtfjmh jm aomstruatjmi our symtbhtja aomtrocs "shh Fpphm jx @* bfvh mo rhfchaomolja lhfmjmi# dut ò `hsarjdh tbh aom jtjomfc aorrhcftjom dhtwhhm gcows to Drfzjc fm gcowsto tbh otbhr aoumtrjhs jm our sflpch- Jmthrhstjmicy# tbh otbhr DTJA aoumtrjhs "tbh TussjfmGh`hrftjom# Jm jf# fm tbh ^hopchs Thpudcja og Abjmf U^TA\* shhl to gjiurh qujth proljmhmtcyfs aomtrocs "wjtb tbh oaafsjomfc f` jtjom og Fustrfcjf5 Jmòmhsjf5 Lhxjao5 fm Pfjphj#Abjmf*- Pbjsjs jmthrhstjmi jm fm og jtshcg# sjmah tbh Tussjfm Gh`hrftjom fm Drfzjc frh cfrih aollo jtyhxporthrs# fm Jm jf fm tbh ^TAs shatorfc aolposjtjom og trf h js qujth jgghrhmt- Jmvhstlhmtlfmfihrs og tbh gum`s jmacu`h jm tbh `ftfsht shhl to trhft DTJA fs sjljcfr sudstjtuths fmàfpjtfc jmgcows to tbhl fpphfr to dh lotjvfth sjljcfrcy- Afpjtfc gcows jm Drfzjc frh aorrhcfth`luab lorh acoshcy wjtb tbh otbhr lhldhrs og tbh DTJA acud rftbhr tbfm wjtb rhijomfc mhjibdors

cjeh Frihmtjmf or Abjch# fm otbhr cfrih firjaucturfc hxporthrs cjeh Aocoldjf or Pbfjcfm -

Gordhs ht fc- "4>64* goaus om tbh hxthrmfcjtjhs arhfth dy tbh jlposjtjom og afpjtfc aomtrocs# fm`bow tbh jlposjtjom og aomtrocs jm omh aoumtry "Drfzjc* lfy chf to rhfccoaftjom og portgocjo sbfrhstbft lfy bfvh fm jlpfat om otbhr aoumtrjhs afpjtfc gcows- Yh tbhrhgorh hstjlfth tbh jlpfat ogDrfzjcs gjvh hpjso`hs og abfmih jm jts afpjtfc faaoumt rhijlh om tbh otbhr DTJA acud lhldhrs#tbh Tussjfm Gh`hrftjom# Jm jf# fm tbh ^TA- Jm lost afshs# wh ò mot odshrvh fmy stftjstjafccyvjsjdch `hvjftjom dhtwhhm tbh symtbhtja fm tbh fatufc gcowsso Drfzjcs pocjay abfmihs bf mofppfrhmt jlpfat- Jm f ghw jmstfmahs# bowhvhr# tbhrh ò shhl to dh motfdch `hvjftjoms# jmpfrtjaucfr gor tbh ^TA jm tbh gjrst hpjso`h "fm jmgcow surih*# tbh Tussjfm Gh`hrftjom jm tbhshaom hpjso`h "outgcow*# tbh ^TA fifjm jm tbh tbjr hpjso`h "fifjm fm jmgcow surih*# fm Jm jffm tbh ^TA jm tbh gjgtb hpjso`h "outgcow*- Dut tbhsh `hvjftjoms gjt wjtb our motjom tbft Drfzjc js

ftthlptjmi to chfm fifjmst tbh wjm` "aoumthrayacjafc pocjay* wbjch tbh otbhr DTJA aoumtrjhs frhgfajmi tbh sflh bhf , or tfjc, wjm`s tbhlshcvhs- Xmcjeh Gordhs ht fc- "4>64*# wh frh bhsjtfmt toaomacu`h tbft tbjs js f sjim og fm hxthrmfcjty5 jt js hqufccy pcfusjdch tbft tbhsh abfmihs jm aomtrocswhrh jlpchlhmth wbhm fcc tbh DTJA aoumtrjhs whrh hxphrjhmajmi vhry sjljcfr afpjtfc jmgcowsurihs or afpjtfc gcjibts fm /or rhtrhmablhmts-

44Cujz Jmajo Cucf `f Qjcvf- Thpcfah om 6 K fmufry 4>66 dy @jclf Tousshgg grol tbh sflh chgt,og,ahmthr pocjtjafcpfrty-


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8- YBFP AFM FQJF CHFTM?

Pbh hxphrjhmahs og Drfzjc wjtb afpjtfc aomtrocs suiihst tbft tbh hgghatjvhmhss og afpjtfc aomtrocssbouc dh vjhwh om f sahmfrjo,dfsh fmfcysjs- Jm tbh afsh og Drfzjc# f bypotbhsjs gorhxpcfjmjmi tbh fsyllhtrja hgghats og afpjtfc aomtrocs js possjdcy f pocjtjafc haomoly omh- Gorhjimjmvhstors lfy tfeh tbh hcjljmftjom or rhcfxftjom og tbh JOG tfx fs fm jmvhstor,grjhm cy pocjaysjimfc "bhmah tbh lfthrjfc hgghat om mht jmgcows og jmthrmftjomfc lutufc gum`s*# wbhrhfs tbhjlposjtjom og afpjtfc aomtrocs wfs mot aomsj hrh f surprjsh or umfmtjajpfth mhws gor gorhjimjmvhstors# ijvhm tbh chgt,og,ahmthr iovhrmlhmt wfs jm abfrih- Pbh pocjay jlpchlhmtftjom sbouctbhrhgorh tfeh jmto faaoumt tbh phrahptjom og tbh lfreht jmvhstors# dotb om tbh pocjay fm om tbhtfx cjfdjcjty hgghat og tbh fatufc aomtroc lhfsurh-

Zht# gfajmi tbh umahrtfjmty og gorhjim afpjtfc lomhtfry futborjtjhs jm Fsjf lfy dh gorah` torhaomsj hr tbh hgghatjvhmhss og afpjtfc aomtroc lhfsurhs# jm rhcftjom to tbhjr comi,thrl odkhatjvhs#j-h-# irowtb# jmgcftjom# proùatjvjty# fm hlpcoylhmt- Pbfjcfm jlposh afpjtfc aomtroc jm@hahldhr 4>>7# omcy gor tbhl to dh rhlovh fclost jllh jfthcy fgthr tbh sbfrp mhiftjvhrhfatjom og tbh òlhstja hqujty lfreht- Fifjmst tbh umahrtfjmty og outaolhs# Drfzjc bfsrhjlposh fm sudshquhmtcy rhcfxh aomtroc aomtrocs sjmah 4>>2# wjtb tbh lfkorjty og lhfsurhs

hvhmtufccy rhcfxh dy tbh hm og 4>64- Faross hlhrijmi lfrehts# tbh dhijmmjmi og 4>61#bowhvhr# shhs tbh rhsurihmah og gorhjim afpjtfc jmgcows fm tbh aomtjmufc fpprhajftjom ogaurrhmajhs# motfdcy jm Fsjf "tbh Thpudcja og Eorhf fm Pbfjcfm`* fm Cftjm Flhrjaf "^hru*-Ybhtbhr afpjtfc aomtroc wouc dh tbh rjibt pocjay lhfsurh tbjs tjlh froum js `hdftfdch# fmùsjmi tbh aoumthrgfatufc,Pbfjcfm or tbh aoumthrgfatufc, hru lfy dh bhcpguc- Achfrcy# fmy pocjayaomsj hrftjom bfs to tfeh jmto faaoumt tbh jlpchlhmtftjom og afpjtfc aomtroc lhfsurhs jmaomkumatjom wjtb otbhr pocjajhs# pocjtjafc haomoly# fm lfreht gfators- Afpjtfc aomtrocs lfy dhsuppchlhmtfc to gorhjim hxabfmih jmthrvhmtjom# wjtb rhsphat to tbh hcfstjajty# aolposjtjom# fm`chvhc og afpjtfc gcows "Dcfmabfr ht fc- 4>615 Ifrajf fm Abflom 4>61*- Ybhm jt aolhs tolfmfijmi afpjtfc gcows# tbh abojah js mot fcwfys hfsy5 fs gor otbhr jmthrvhmtjoms# afpjtfc aomtrocjs jstortjomfry "rhcftjvh to chfvjmi lfreht gorahs om jmthrhst rfths fm aurrhmay fpprhajftjom*fm thm`s to cosh jts hgghatjvhmhss ovhr tjlh "jmthrmftjomfc jmvhstors afm gjm coopbochs faross

gjmfmajfc jmstrulhmts fm /or lovh to otbhr umaomtrocch lfrehts*-

7- AFWHFPQ FM@ GXPXTH THQHFTAB

Jm fm JLG Fprjc 4>66 lhhtjmi jsaussjmi tbh JLGs iuj hcjmhs gor supportjmi tbh ush og afpjtfcaomtrocs# tbh Drfzjcjfm gjmfmah ljmjsthr Iuj o Lfmthif vojah bjs opposjtjom- Bh `hacfrh ; $Yhopposh fmy iuj hcjmhs# grflhwores or ao`hs og aomùat tbft ftthlpt to aomstrfjm# jrhatcy orjm jrhatcy# pocjay rhspomshs og aoumtrjhs gfajmi surihs jm vocftjch afpjtfc jmgcows- Iovhrmlhmtslust bfvh gchxjdjcjty fm jsarhtjom to fòpt pocjajhs tbft tbhy aomsj hr fpproprjfth$ "Th``y4>66*- Pbh Iovhrmlhmt og Drfzjc# fs whcc fs otbhr rhprhshmtftjvhs grol hlhrijmi lfrehts#goum tbh JLGs cjljth support og afpjtfc aomtrocs fs f pru`hmtjfc pocjay tooc too cjljth fm`

aomstrfjmjmi# fm friuh gor f drof`hr lfm`fth to ush tbjs sht og toocs-Jm wbft afm dh phrahjvh fs f cjljth aomgjrlftjom og tbjs aomahrm# JLG rhshfrabhrs rhahmtcyaomacu`h # jm tbh afsh og shvhrfc Hfsthrm Hurophfm aoumtrjhs tbft whrh hxphrjhmajmi bhfvyjmgcows# tbft tbh aom jtjoms prhvfjcjmi jm tbhsh afshs j mot kustjgy tbh jlposjtjom og aomtrocs5fm f`voafth lorh aomvhmtjomfc lomhtfry fm gjsafc f kustlhmts "Abow`bury fm Ehcchr4>64*- Jg omh ushs tbh drof grflhwore tbft tbh JLG suiihsts# bowhvhr# om lost faaoumtsDrfzjc jm 4>>24>6> fpphfrh to bfvh dhhm f ioo afm j fth gor tbh jlposjtjom og aomtrocs-


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Jt js rhlfrefdch# tbhrhgorh# tbft wh gfjc to gjm luab jlpfat og tbhsh aomtrocs ijvhm tbhjr jmthm`h`rftjomfch jm cjljtjmi tbh voculh og afpjtfc gcowjmi jmto f pothmtjfccy ovhrbhfth haomoly# fm tbhvoafc support tbhsh pocjajhs bfvh ifrmhrh grol lfmy aormhrs og tbh pocjay worc - Pbhshgjm jmis suiihst tbft ljc prjah,dfsh aomtrocs fpphfr hgghatjvh omcy jg tbhy frh surprjsjmi fm`provj h f sjimfc rhifr jmi tbh iovhrmlhmts cfrihr pocjay trfkhatory- Achfrcy# usjmi aomtrocs fs fsjimfc js dotb aostcy# jmhggjajhmt# fm afm omcy dh ush jmgrhquhmtcy- F sahptjafc rhf`hr lfy# og

aoursh# suiihst tbft our rhsucts lfy mot dh rodust fm our gfjcurh to umaovhr tbh jrhat jlpfatsog aomtrocs "dfr tbhjr sjimfccjmi jlpfat* js f gfjcurh og our lhtbo`ocoiy- Ybjch tbjs js f possjdjcjty#f spfth og otbhr rhahmt wore bfs fcso gfjch to gjm luab hvj hmah gor f sjimjgjafmt jlpfat og ljcaomtrocs# or js ihmhrfccy sahptjafc og fmy acfjls og tbh hggjafay og tbhsh aomtrocssuab fs tboshtbft whrh jlpchlhmth jm tbh Drfzjcjfm afsh "h-i-# Afcvo 4>6>5 Yfrmoae 4>665 H`wfr s 4>645Grftzsabhr 4>645 Qtrfhtlfms ht fc- gortbaoljmi5 fm Abfrj gortbaoljmi*-

Fm f` jtjomfc possjdjcjty js tbft tbh Drfzjcjfm afsh js mot rhprhshmtftjvh fm fmy aomacusjoms wjccmot dh fppcjafdch hcshwbhrh- Pbjs js f ihmhrfc arjtjajsl og fmy afsh stu`y# fs tbh fppcjafdjcjty ogf afsh js mhvhr fssurh 5 fifjm# wh friuh tbft ijvhm tbh prhvfchmah og sjljcfr aomacusjoms jm tbjsrhahmt spfth og aross,aoumtry rhshfrab prokhats# wh dhcjhvh tbh Drfzjcjfm afsh js lost cjehcyrhprhshmtftjvh og tbh cfrihr pftthrm; ljc afpjtfc aomtrocs frh cfrihcy jmhgghatjvh umchss tbhyprovj h f sjimfc rhifr jmi tbh ihmhrfc trfkhatory og iovhrmlhmt haomolja pocjay " rfaomjfmaomtrocs frh# dy `hgjmjtjom# hgghatjvh*-

Pbh rhfsoms gor jmstjtutjmi tbhsh pocjajhs# og aoursh# lfy dh pocjtjafc fm hchatorfc jm mfturh#rftbhr tbfm dhjmi trucy iuj h dy f `hsjrh to odtfjm fmy og tbh jlpfats wh `hsarjdh - Jt lfy dhjm`hh tbft pocjaylfehrs guccy um`hrstfm tbh jmfdjcjty og tbhsh aomtrocs to bfvh fmy sudstfmtjfcjlpfat# dut mhvhrtbhchss rhsort to f`optjmi tbhl- Yh chfvh tbft possjdjcjty gor guturh wore-


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THGHTHMAHQ

Fdf jh# F-# F- @jflom # fm K - Bfjmluhcchr- 4>6>- Qymtbhtja aomtroc lhtbo`s gor aolpfrftjvhafsh stu jhs; hstjlftjmi tbh hgghat og Afcjgormjfs todfaao aomtroc proirfl- Kourmfc og tbh

Flhrjafm Qtftjstjafc Fssoajftjom 6>8"0:>*; 0:18>8-

- 4>64- Aolpfrftjvh ôcjtjas fm tbh Qymtbhtja Aomtroc Lhtbo - Lfssfabushtts Jmstjtuthog Phabmocoiy "LJP* ôcjtjafc Qajhmah @hpfrtlhmt Thshfrab ^fphr 4>6648-

Fdf jh# F-# fm K - Ifr hfzfdfc- 4>>1- tbh haomolja aosts og aomgcjat; f afsh stu y og tbhDfsquh Aoumtry-Flhrjafm Haomolja Thvjhw :1"6*; 66114-

Dfdf# A-# fm F- Eoehmymh- 4>66- Hgghatjvhmhss og afpjtfc aomtrocs jm shchath hlhrijmilfrehts jm tbh 4>>>s- JLG Yorejmi ^fphr66/426- Yfsbjmitom# @A; JLG-

Djmjaj# L-# L- Butabjsom# fm L- Qabjm chr- 4>6>- Aomtroccjmi afpjtfc? Chifc rhstrjatjoms fm tbhfssht aolposjtjom og jmthrmftjomfc gjmfmajfc gcows- Kourmfc og Jmthrmftjomfc Lomhy fm`Gjmfmah 4:"0*; 77720-

Dcfmabfr # O-# I- @hccFrjaajf# fm - Lfuro- 4>61- Thtbjmejmi Lfaro ôcjay JJ; ihttjmi irfmucfr-JLG Qtfgg @jsaussjom Moth "Fprjc*- Yfsbjmitom# @A; JLG-

Afcvo# I- 4>6>- Aomtrocs om ayacjafc afpjtfc jmgcowssolh sehptjafc moths- WoxCFAHF- bttp;//vox-cfahf-ori/?q

Afrvfcbo# D-# fm L- Ifrajf- 4>>2- Jmhgghatjvh Aomtrocs om Afpjtfc Jmgcows jm Qopbjstjafth`Gjmfmajfc Lfrehts; Drfzjc jm tbh Mjmhtjhs- Jm Gjmfmajfc Lfrehts Wocftjcjty fm` ^hrgorlfmahjm Hlhrijmi Lfrehts# h jth dy Q- H`wfr s fm L- Ifrajf- Afldrj ih# LF; MftjomfcDurhfu og Haomolja Thshfrab "MDHT*-

Afvfcco# H-# Q- Ifcjfmj# J- Moy# fm` K - fmtfmo- Gortbaoljmi- Aftfstropbja mfturfc jsfsthrs fm`haomolja irowtb- Thvjhw og Haomolja fm` Qtftjstjas-

Abfrj# F- Gortbaoljmi- Dooe rhvjhw og Ocjvjhr K hfmmh# Frvjm Qudrflfmjfm# K obm Yjccjflsom#wbo mhh`s to ophm tbh afpjtfc faaoumt? Kourmfc og Jmthrmftjomfc Haomoljas-

Abjmm# L-# fm B- Jto- 4>>7- Ybft lftthrs gor gjmfmajfc hvhcoplhmt? Afpjtfc aomtrocs#jmstjtutjoms# fm jmthrfatjoms- Kourmfc og @hvhcoplhmt Haomoljas 26; 671:4-

Abow`bury# J-# fm C- Ehcchr- 4>64- Lfmfijmi cfrih,safch afpjtfc jmgcows; Pbh afsh og tbh AzhabThpudcja# ôcfm fm Tolfmjf- JLG Yorejmi ^fphr64/612- Yfsbjmitom# @A; JLG-

@u omt# Y-# fm` J- Moy-

H`wfr s# Q- 6:::- Bow hgghatjvh frh afpjtfc aomtrocs? Kourmfc og Haomolja ^hrsphatjvhs 61"0*;7820-

Gortbaoljmi- Ybft bfpphmh to Eodh? F rhfsshsslhmt og tbh jlpfatog tbh 6::8 hfrtbqufeh- Haomolja @hvhcoplhmt fm Aucturfc Abfmih-

- 4>64- Pbh Gh`hrfc Thshrvh# Hlhrijmi Lfrehts# Fm Afpjtfc Aomtrocs; F BjibGrhquhmay Hlpjrjafc Jmvhstjiftjom- MDHT Yorejmi ^fphrMo- 62889- Afldrj ih# LF-

Gordhs# E-# L- Grftzsabhr# P- Eostef# fm` T- Qtrfud- 4>64- Duddch Pby Mhjibdor; ortgocjoHgghats fm Hxthrmfcjtjhs grol Afpjtfc Aomtrocs- MDHT Yorejmi ^fphrMo- 62>84-Afldrj ih# LF; MDHT-

Grftzsabhr# L- 4>64- Afpjtfc gcows# pusb vhrsus pucc gfators fm tbh icodfc gjmfmajfc arjsjs-Kourmfc og Jmthrmftjomfc Haomoljas 22"4*; 10687-
http://vox.lacea.org/?q=node/20http://vox.lacea.org/?q=node/20


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Ifrajf# L-# fm L- Abflom- 4>61- Afpjtfc aomtrocs jm Drfzjc; hgghatjvh? @hpfrtlhmt ogHaomoljas Yorejmi ^fphr7>7- omtjgjafc Aftbocja Xmjvhrsjty og Tjo h K fmhjro "^XA,Tjo*# Drfzjc-

Icjae# T-# R- Iuo# fm L- Butabjsom- 4>>7- Aurrhmay arjshs# Afpjtfc,faaoumt cjdhrfcjzftjom# fm`shchatjom djfs- Pbh Thvjhw og Haomoljas fm` Qtftjstjas

Ioc gfkm# J-# fm F- Ljmhccf- 4>>8- Afpjtfc gcows fm aomtrocs jm Drfzjc; Ybft bfvh wh chfrmh`?MDHT Yorejmi ^fphrMo- 6670>- Afldrj ih# LF; MDHT-

22"0*; 7:2960-

Bjmrjabs# ^- 4>64- Pbh hgghats og fggjrlftjvh fatjom dfms om aocchih hmrocclhmt# hùaftjomfcfttfjmlhmt# fm tbh `hloirfpbja aolposjtjom og umjvhrsjtjhs- Thvjhw og Haomoljas fm`Qtftjstjas :0"1*; 96444

JLG- 4>64- Pbh Cjdhrfcjzftjom fm Lfmfihlhmt og Afpjtfc Gcows; Fm Jmstjtutjomfc Wjhw- JLGôsjtjom ^fphr-

-

bttp;//www-jlg-ori/hxthrmfc/mp/pp/hmi/4>64/666064-p g

K hfmmh# O- 4>64f- Afpjtfc gcow lfmfihlhmt-

- 4>64d- Afpjtfc Faaoumt ôcjajhs fm tbh Thfc Hxabfmih Tfth- MDHT Yorejmi ^fphrMo-620>0- Afldrj ih# LF; MDHT-

Flhrjafm Haomolja Thvjhw 6>4"1*; 4>1>7-

K oyah# K -# fm J- Moy- 4>>2- Pbh JLG fm` tbh Cjdhrfcjzftjom og Afpjtfc Gcows- Thvjhw ogJmthrmftjomfc Haomoljas 67"1*; 0611>-

K umi,f# Q- 4>61- Dhyom drjaes; Q Eorhf gcjrts fifjm wjtb Podjm- Gjmfmajfc Pjlhs- 4> Lfrab-

Echjm# L- 4>64- Afpjtfc aomtrocs; Ifths vhrsus Yfccs- MDHT Yorejmi ^fphrMo- 62847-Afldrj ih# LF; MDHT-

Lfiu # M-H-# A-L- Thjmbfrt# fm` E-Q- Toiogg- 4>66- Afpjtfc Aomtrocs; Lytb fm` ThfcjtyFôrtgocjo Dfcfmah Fpprofab- MDHT Yorejmi ^fphrMo- 672>8- Afldrj ih# LF; MDHT-

Ljmjfmh# K - 4>>0- F mhw sht og lhfsurhs om afpjtfc faaoumt rhstrjatjoms- JLG Qtfgg ^fphrs 86"4*;4971>2-

Mfmmjajmj# P-# fm F- Djcclhjhr- 4>66- Haomoljhs jm trfmsjtjom; Bow jlportfmt js trf`h ophmmhssgor irowtb? Oxgor` Ducchtjm og Haomoljas fm` Qtftjstjas 91"1*; 429160-

Orifmjsftjom gor Haomolja Ao,ophrftjom fm @hvhcoplhmt "OHA@*- 4>66- OHA@ HaomoljaQurvhys; Drfzjc- ^frjs; OHA@-

Ostry# K -# F- Ibosb# L- Abflom# fm L- Vurhsbj- 4>66- Afpjtfc aomtrocs; Ybhm fm wby? JLGHaomolja Thvjhw 8:"1*; 8742>-

- 4>64- Poocs gor lfmfijmi gjmfmajfc,stfdjcjty rjses grol afpjtfc jmgcows- Kourmfc ogJmthrmftjomfc Haomoljas 22; 0>946-

jmottj# - 4>66- Pbh Haomolja Aomshquhmahs og Orifmjzh Arjlh; Hvj hmah grol QoutbhrmJtfcy- Lfmusarjpt-

Th``y# Q- 4>66- Hlhrijmi Mftjoms Thkhat Afpjtfc cfm; JLG @hcfys ^roirfl to Bhcp AoumtrjhsLfmfih Qbort,Phrl Jmgcows5 fs Ihjtbmhr Dcflhs Abjmf# Otbhrs Dcflh tbh Gh - YfccQtrhht Kourmfc- 62 Fprjc-bttp;//omcjmh-wsk-aol/frtjach/QD6>>>6040>849029>19>4>>0897472:2>>90288604-btlc

Qabjm chr# L- 4>>:- Lhfsurjmi gjmfmajfc jmthirftjom; F mhw ftf sht- JLG Qtfgg ^fphrs 87"6*;44412-

Qtrfhtlfms# Q-# T- Whrsthhi# fm A- Yocgg- Gortbaoljmi- Frh afpjtfc aomtrocs jm tbh gorhjimhxabfmih lfreht hgghatjvh? Kourmfc og Jmthrmftjomfc Lomhy fm` Gjmfmah-
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2012/111412.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2012/111412.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2012/111412.pdf


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Pbh Haomoljst- 4>61- bomhy aurrhmay wfrs- 67 Ghdrufry-

Yfrmoae# G- 4>66- @oudts fdout afpjtfc aomtrocs; Afpjtfc gcows aollhmt- Aoumajc om GorhjimThcftjoms-bttp;//www-agr-ori/ihohaomoljas/ oudts,afpjtfc,aomtrocs/p40708 -
http://www.cfr.org/geoeconomics/doubts-capital-controls/p24645http://www.cfr.org/geoeconomics/doubts-capital-controls/p24645http://www.cfr.org/geoeconomics/doubts-capital-controls/p24645http://www.cfr.org/geoeconomics/doubts-capital-controls/p24645


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40

F^^HM@JR F; HQPJLFPJOM THQXCPQ GOT QZMPBHPJAFMFCZQJQ

Pbh goccowjmi sht og tfdchs aolpfrhs tbh prh,trhftlhmt abfrfathrjstjas og tbh trhfth` "fatufc*

Drfzjc wjtb tbft og tbh symtbhtja Drfzjc- Qymtbhtja Drfzjc js aomstruath fs tbh aoldjmftjom ogaoumtrjhs aboshm grol tbh sflpch tbft lost acoshcy rhshldch Drfzjc jm thrls og afpjtfc gcowsdhgorh Drfzjc jmtro`uah tbh afpjtfc faaoumt pocjay abfmih sphajgjh jm tbh tjtch og hfab tfdch"fm tbh `fth jt wfs jlpchlhmth *- Fpphm jx A aomtfjms f gucc cjst og aoumtrjhs fm tbhjr symtbhtjawhjibts ush to aomstruat tbh symtbhtja odshrvftjom- Pbh rhporth stftjstjas frh tbh lhfm vfcuhsog tbh fatufc fm symtbhtja hxpcfmftory vfrjfdchs gor tbh prh,trhftlhmt phrjo`s# wbjab frh 64whhes prjor to tbh whhe og pocjay abfmih- Toot lhfm squfrh prh jatjom hrror "TLQ^H* jsafcaucfth fs tbh root lhfm og tbh whjibth squfrh jstfmah dhtwhhm tbh trhfth fm symtbhtjaafpjtfc gcows gor tbh prh,trhftlhmt phrjo`s-

Pfdch F6; Hstjlftjom ThsuctsPfxjmi Gjxh`,Jmaolh Jmvhstlhmt

64 Lfrab 4>>2

Wfrjfdchs Prhfth` Qymtbhtja

Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 7 Ghdrufry 4>>2 "964->2>* "940-284*

Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 49 Ghdrufry 4>>2 "267-98>* "269->1:*

Lutufc Gum Thturm 7->27 6-:94

Coi "Potfc Mht Fsshts* :-070 2-271

Yhhecy Thturm om Qtoae Lfreht Jm`hx 6-:>0 ">-091*

Yhhecy Thturm om Dom Lfreht Jm`hx 6-2:2 6-264

Yhhecy Thturm om Gorhjim Hxabfmih Tfth 8-9>0 1-::6

TLQ^H 81->20" * 2


Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 40 Qhpthldhr 4>>2 "19>-74>* "127-727*

Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 2 Oatodhr 4>>2 "889->8>* "840-779*

Lutufc Gum Thturm "80-90>* "04->>4*Coi "Potfc Mht Fsshts* :-448 2-72:

Yhhecy Thturm om Qtoae Lfreht Jm`hx "17-48>* "18-477*

Yhhecy Thturm om Dom Lfreht Jm`hx 4->20 >-46:

Yhhecy Thturm om Gorhjim Hxabfmih Tfth "46-007* ":-987*

TLQ^H 17-770" *


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48

Pfdch F1; Hstjlftjom ThsuctsPfxjmi Qtoae fm` Dom` Jmvhstlhmt ft 4(

4> Oatodhr 4>>:


Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 8 Fuiust 4>>: 6:9-10> 6::-129

Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 64 Fuiust 4>>: 478-1:> 477-861

Lutufc Gum Thturm 47-776 48->4:

Coi "Potfc Mht Fsshts* :-7>: 2-882

Yhhecy Thturm om Qtoae Lfreht Jm`hx 62-:0: 41-9>4

Yhhecy Thturm om Dom Lfreht Jm`hx 6-182 4-890

Yhhecy Thturm om Gorhjim Hxabfmih Tfth 2-474 8-124

TLQ^H "Toot Lhfm Qqufrh` rh jatjom Hrror* 6>6-404" * Wfrjfdchs Prhfth` Qymtbhtja

Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 48 Fuiust 4>6>02>-11> 02>-411

Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 6 Qhpthldhr 4>6>829-74> 829-990

Lutufc Gum Thturm 6>-68> 6>-664

Coi "Potfc Mht Fsshts* :-:46 :-27:

Yhhecy Thturm om Qtoae Lfreht Jm`hx 9-262 9-99:

Yhhecy Thturm om Dom Lfreht Jm`hx 6-714 6-4:1

Yhhecy Thturm om Gorhjim Hxabfmih Tfth 1-024 1-248

TLQ^H 9>-807TLQ^H


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47

Pfdch F0d; Hstjlftjom ThsuctsJmarhfsjmi Pfxhs grol 0( to 7(

62 Oatodhr 4>6>


Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 48 Qhpthldhr 4>6> 7>7->7> 290-004

Aulucftjvh Gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 61 Oatodhr 4>6>4#>90-4:> 6#817-7:0

Lutufc Gum Thturm 60-109 66-907

Coi "Potfc Mht Fsshts* :-:70 6>-768

Yhhecy Thturm om Qtoae Lfreht Jm`hx :-69> 6>-70:

Yhhecy Thturm om Dom Lfreht Jm`hx 6-817 >-178

Yhhecy Thturm om Gorhjim Hxabfmih Tfth 8->02 6-962

TLQ^H 1>9-441TLQ^H 66


Aulucftjvh gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 1 Movhldhr 4>6>200-8:> 7>9-1>4

Aulucftjvh gcow om tbh whhe hm jmi ft 4: Movhldhr 4>6>722-:4> 286-:>0

Lutufc Gum Thturm ">->70* 1-124Coi "Potfc Mht Fsshts* 6>-668 :->24

Yhhecy Thturm om Qtoae Lfreht Jm`hx "6-2>:* 8->47

Yhhecy Thturm om Dom Lfreht Jm`hx 6-184 6-291

Yhhecy Thturm om Gorhjim Hxabfmih Tfth ">-789* 4-:28

TLQ^H 4>7-:72" *


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49

F^^HM@JR D; YHTH DTF[JCJFM AF^JPFC AOMPTOCQFMPJAJ^FPH@?

Jm tbjs fpphm jx# wh hxfljmh fm hlpjrjafc fssoajftjom dhtwhhm tbh fmmoumahlhmts og afpjtfc

aomtroc lhfsurhs fm fmy pothmtjfc lfreht fm pudcja fmtjajpftjom og tbhsh fmmoumahlhmts- Yhfjl to vhrjgy tbft tbh tjljmi og fmmoumahlhmts ush jm tbh lfjm stu`y js jm`hh f surprjsh"rhifr chss og jts mhws aomthmt fm haomolja sjimjgjafmah* fm tbhrhgorh afmmot dh gorhafsth`qufmtjtftjvhcy dy afpjtfc lfreht jm jaftors fm survhys- Ybjch our lfjm gjm jmis jm shatjoms 40frh dfsh om gjvh lfkor fmmoumahlhmts grol 4>>2 to 4>66# fs wh whrh aomstrfjmh dy tbhwhhecy gum gcows `ftf# tbjs fpphm jx rhports shvhrfc thsts ovhr tbh wboch post,icodfc gjmfmajfcarjsjs sflpch phrjo # 4>>24>64# fm provj hs f `hsarjptjom og fcc fmmoumahlhmts og aomtroclhfsurhs# fs drjhgcy outcjmh jm tbh goccowjmi-

Pbh tfx om gjmfmajfc ophrftjoms "JOG* tbft wfs jmjtjfccy jlposh` om gorhjim jmvhstors dom`jmvhstlhmts wfs fmmoumah om 64 Lfrab 4>>2- Om 41 Oatodhr 4>>2# tbh iovhrmlhmtfmmoumah tbh hcjljmftjom og tbh gjmfmajfc trfmsfatjom tfx om gorhjim jmvhstors# wbjab wfs 6-8>(om gorhjim hxabfmih trfmsfatjoms gor afpjtfc jmgcows fm >-12( om gorhjim aurrhmay cofms- Dylj ,Oatodhr 4>>:# tbh Drfzjcjfm rhfc fpprhajfth lfreh cy fm tbh JOG wfs rh,jlposh om4> Oatodhr 4>>:- Jm Qhpthldhr 4>6># tbh Drfzjcjfm rhfc fpprhajftjom jmarhfsh lfreh cy fifjm#fm om 0 Oatodhr 4>6># tbh iovhrmlhmt fmmoumah fm jllh jfth jmarhfsh og tbh JOG om dom`sgrol 4( to 0(- Om 62 Oatodhr 4>6># tbh iovhrmlhmt fmmoumah fm f` jtjomfc JOG jmarhfshgrol 0( to 7(- Dy hfrcy @hahldhr 4>6># tbh lfreht wfs sphaucftjmi wbhtbhr tbh JOG ljibt dhrfjsh gurtbhr grol 7( om dom jmvhstlhmts# dut jt rhlfjmh 4( om hqujty jmvhstlhmts "sjmahsphaucftjom jm tbh stoae lfreht j mot shhl to posh luab tbrhft*- Om 1 K fmufry 4>66# tbhiovhrmlhmt fmmoumah f rhùatjom jm tbh JOG om prjvfth hqujty gum`s# vhmturh afpjtfc gum`s#fm `hposjtory rhahjpts grol 7( to 4(- Dy lj ,4>66# fs tbh fpprhajftjom og tbh Drfzjcjfm rhfcrhifjmh lolhmtul# tbh iovhrmlhmt fmmoumah f tfx om trf jmi og aurrhmay `hrjvftjvhs om 49

K ucy 4>66# fm outcjmh` jts `htfjch` pcfm om 67 Qhpthldhr 4>66 gor f 6( tfx om aurrhmay`hrjvftjvhs# dut om 41 Qhpthldhr 4>66 jt `haj h to `hcfy tbh tfx umtjc tbh hm og @hahldhr- Fs

tbh tbrhft og tbh huro arjsjs ovhrsbfòwh icodfc lfrehts# tbh iovhrmlhmt fmmoumah om 6@hahldhr 4>66 tbft tbh JOG om hqujty jmvhstlhmts fm aorporfth dom jmvhstlhmts wfsjllh jfthcy sarfpph - Dy hfrcy Lfrab 4>64# bowhvhr# tbh fpprhajftjom og tbh Drfzjcjfm rhfcrhmhwh fm tbh iovhrmlhmt fmmoumah om 6 Lfrab 4>64 tbft tbh 7( JOG om gorhjim cofmswjtb lfturjtjhs up to 4 yhfrs mow hxthm`h to tbosh wjtb lfturjtjhs up to 1 yhfrs- Om 41 Lfy4>64# tbh iovhrmlhmt `haj h to rop tbh JOG om tbh purabfsh og `hrjvftjvhs jmstrulhmts gorhxporthrs# fm om 60 K umh 4>64# tbh iovhrmlhmt fmmoumah f rhùatjom jm tbh gjmfmajfctrfmsfatjom tfx om gorhjim cofms to òlhstja gjrls-

Po fsahrtfjm wbhtbhr tbh pudcja fmtjajpfth` tbh fmmoumahlhmts# wh cooe ft tbh `fjcylovhlhmts og shvhrfc afpjtfc lfreht jm jaftors# jmacu jmi dusjmhss survhys og hxphatftjomaomahrmjmi tbh Drfzjcjfm rhfcXQ òccfr hxabfmih rfth fm tbh Qphajfc Qysthl gor Qhttchlhmt

fm Austo`y "Qhcja* rfths# fs whcc fs spot gorhjim hxabfmih jmthrvhmtjoms dy tbh Dfmao Ahmtrfcò Drfsjc " djccjom* fm tbh mht "purabfshs ljmus sfchs* gorhjim hxabfmih trfmsfatjoms dy tbhgjmfmajfc shator jm Drfzjc " djccjom*- Yh aocchath tbh `ftf grol @ftfQtrhfl# wbjab lfehfvfjcfdch tbhsh `fjcy shrjhs grol 0 Lfy 4>>:5 wh frh tbus fdch to stu`y 66 out og tbh 61 `fthslhmtjomh fdovh- Gjiurh D6 pcots tbh gour shrjhs# lfreh wjtb tbh 66 fmmoumahlhmt `fths- Jtfpphfrs tbh fmmoumahlhmts whrh mot gorhafst dy tbhsh lfreht jm jaftors dut tbhrh frh solhpossjdjcjtjhs; om omh oaafsjom gor fm jmarhfsh jm tbh afpjtfc aomtroc lhfsurh fmmoumah om 4>Oatodhr 4>>:# wbhm jt wfs prhah`h dy f sjimjgjafmt jmthrvhmtjom jm spot gorhjim hxabfmihlfrehts dy tbh ahmtrfc dfme om 2 Oatodhr 4>>:5 fm om shvhrfc oaafsjoms wbhm aorrhcftjoms


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42

fpphfrh dhtwhhm mht gorhjim hxabfmih trfmsfatjoms dy tbh gjmfmajfc shator fm `harhfshs ogafpjtfc aomtroc lhfsurhs-

Yh gorlfccy thst tbh rhcftjomsbjp dhtwhhm tbh fmmoumahlhmt `fths fm tbh lfreht jm jaftors dyusjmi prodfdjcjstja rhirhssjoms- Dfsh om tbh @jaehy,Gucchr thsts# wh gjm tbft tbh Drfzjcjfm rhfcXQ òccfr fm tbh Qhcja shrjhs frh mom,stftjomfry5 tbhsh frh tbhm jgghrhmah - Fs f gjrst sthp# wh

hstjlfth f prodjt lo`hc og fmmoumahlhmt `fths om tbh gour vfrjfdchs aomthlporfmhouscy-Aoculms "6* fm "4* og Pfdch D6 rhport tbh hstjlftjom rhsucts gor tbh sjx jmarhfshs fm tbh gjvh`harhfshs og tbh aomtroc fmmoumahlhmt `fths# rhsphatjvhcy- Yh gjm tbh ahmtrfc dfmesjmthrvhmtjom js posjtjvhcy fssoajfth wjtb tbh jmarhfsh fmmoumahlhmts# wbjch tbh Drfzjcjfm rhfcs`hprhajftjom js posjtjvhcy fssoajfth wjtb tbh `harhfsh fmmoumahlhmts- Bowhvhr# tbhhxpcfmftory powhr og dotb prodjt rhirhssjoms# fs lhfsurh dy tbh ^shuò T4

# js vhry cow- Mhxt#wh proahh wjtb f Djvfrjfth prodjt rhirhssjom# wbhrhdy tbh jmarhfsh fmmoumahlhmt js f gumatjomog tbh Qhcja rfth# ahmtrfc dfme jmthrvhmtjom# fm mht "purabfshs ljmus sfchs* gorhjim hxabfmihtrfmsfatjoms dy tbh gjmfmajfc shator5 fm tbh `harhfsh fmmoumahlhmt js f gumatjom og tbhDrfzjcjfm rhfcXQ òccfr# Qhcja rfth# fm mht gorhjim hxabfmih trfmsfatjoms dy tbh gjmfmajfcshator# fm dotb gumatjoms frh hstjlfth sjluctfmhouscy- Po faaoumt gor fmy cfiih hgghats ogtbhsh lfreht jm jaftors# wh fcso jmacu`h tbhjr cfis up to 1 `fys prhah jmi tbh fmmoumahlhmt`fths- Pbh hstjlftjom rhsucts jm aoculm "1* og tbh tfdch suiihst tbft fmy fssoajftjom dhtwhhmtbh fmmoumahlhmt `fths fm tbh lfreht jm jaftors js rftbhr whfe fm mot stftjstjafccysjimjgjafmt- Mhjtbhr tbh jmarhfsh mor tbh `harhfsh fmmoumahlhmts sjimjgy fmy stftjstjafcrhcftjomsbjp wjtb tbh afpjtfc lfreht jm jaftors# fcc og wbjab frh pudcjacy fvfjcfdch- Pbhrhgorh# whaomacu`h tbft tbhsh pocjay abfmihs whrh mot fmtjajpfth jm fmy rjiorous "fatjomfdch* wfy dylfreht pfrtjajpfmts gor tbh hpjso`hs og afpjtfc aomtroc lhfsurhs tbft wh frh goausjmi om-


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4:

Gjiurh D6; Fmmoumahlhmts og Afpjtfc Aomtroc Lhfsurhs fm` Afpjtfc LfrehtJm`jaftors

GR


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1>

Pfdch D4; Fmtjajpftjom og tbh Fmmoumahlhmts og Afpjtfc Aomtroc Lhfsurhs

^rodjt Djvfrjfth rodjt

Afpjtfc Aomtroc "6* "4* "1*

Jmarhfsh @harhfsh Jmarhfsh @harhfsh

Qurvhyh` Wfr- aohgg- "s-h-* aohgg- "s-h-* aohgg- "s-h-* aohgg- "s-h-*Drfzjcjfm rhfcXQ òccfrt 1-:> "1-69* 16->6 "61-62*

d 49->6 "12-9>*

Qhcjat ,4-9> "4-6:* ,6-:0 "6-14* ,7-29 "8-11* ,>-24 "7-9>*

Jmthrvhmtjomt >-81 ">-47*d ,>-71 "6-69* ,6-94 "1-27*

GR Iross Gcows >-4>t ">-67* ,>-6: ">-1>* ,>-4> ">-08* ,>-46 ">-81*

Drfzjcjfm rhfc

XQ òccfrt,6 ,6-77 ":-6:* ,9-89 "0-92*

Drfzjcjfm rhfc

XQ òccfrt,4 ,>-88 "7-67* ,:->> "8-7:*

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Qhcjat,6 >-27 ">-:6*

Qhcjat,4 4->4 "1-94*

Qhcjat,1 ,64-47 "60-02*

Jmthrvhmtjomt,6 ,>->2 ">-0:* ,>-12 ">-8>*

Jmthrvhmtjomt,4 ,>-10 ">-84* ,>-40 ">-07*

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GR Iross Gcows

t,

6 ,6:-14 "82-:6*GR Iross Gcows

t,

4 9>-07 "7:->7*

GR Iross Gcows

t,

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Mo- og `fys

f

:9: :9: 1:6

^shuò T >->2484 >->87> ^rod-=abj4-::19GR


33/37


16

F^^HM@JR A; AOTTHCFPJOM DHPYHHM HLHTIJMIÔTPGOCJO GXM@ THQHFTAB FM@ DFCFMAH OG

^FZLHMPQ QPFPJQPJAQ @FPFPbjs tfdch rhports tbh aorrhcftjom aohggjajhmts dhtwhhm Hlhrijmi ôrtgocjo Gum Thshfrab"H^GT* lutufc gum gcows fm tbrhh oggjajfc lhfsurhs og aross,dor hr afpjtfc gcows rhporth dytbh Jmthrmftjomfc Lomhtfry Gum "JLG* Dfcfmah og ^fylhmts "DO * stftjstjastbh mht portgocjojmvhstlhmt " J*# tbh mht hqujty aolpomhmt og tbh portgocjo jmvhstlhmt "H^J*# fm tbh gorhjimjrhat jmvhstlhmt "G@J*- Pbh sflpch phrjo js grol tbh gourtb qufrthr "V0* og 4>>9 to V6 4>66-

Aoumtry Aoumtry

Fustrfcjf >-690 ">->81* >-690Thpudcja ogEorhf >-691 ">-679* ">-626*

Fustrjf >->97 ">-466* >-042 Lfcfysjf >-828 >-080a

">-169*Dhcijul >-0>6 >-68> >-179 Lhxjao ">-471* >-6:0

Drfzjc >-408 >-092 >-60> Mhtbhrcfm`s >-1>0 >-691 ">-688*

Afmf`f >-6:7 >-679 >-46> Mhw [hfcfm >-877 >-67: ">-18>*

Abjch ">-466* ">-646* >-674 Morwfy ">-469* >-6:4 >-6>0

^TA ">->27* ">->14* >-40: ^bjcjppjmhs >-801 >-8>:a ">-690*

Aocoldjf >-6>0 ">-:>>* ôcfm`f >-416 >->78 ">-714*AzhabThpudcja ">-646* >->16 >-798 ôrtuifcd ">-689* ">-69:* >-290

@hmlfre

a

">-197* ">-188* ">-819*TussjfmGh`hrftjom >-871 >-7>6a >->14a

Hiypt ">-19:* Qjmifporh ">-471* >-61:Gjmcfm ">-901* ">-870* ">-09:* Qoutb Fgrjaf ">->88* >->82 >->8>

Grfmah >->41 ">->8:* >->00 Qpfjm ">->62* >->17 ">-476*

Ihrlfmy ">-1::* ">->11* >-61: Qwh`hm ">->92* >-089 ">-47>*

Irhhah >-67: >->0> ">-64>* Qwjtzhrcfm ">-494* >-696 ">-181*Bomi Eomi#Abjmf ">->27* >->27 ">-668* Pfjphj#Abjmf ">->>8* >-4::

Jm`jf >-916 >-784d >->>7 Pbfjcfm >->44 >->97 >-421

Jmòmhsjf >-671 >-212 ">->00*f Purehy >->26 ">-60:*

Jsrfhc >->19 >->2> >-884XmjthÈjmiòla ">-420* ">-429* >->>:

Jtfcy ">->82* ">-8>8* >-8>4 Xmjth Qtfths >->>> ">->>0* >-112

K fpfm >-404 >-07> >-41: Wjht Mfl >-442 ">-694*" *


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14

F^^HM@JR @; AOXMPTZ YHJIBPQ GOT QZMPBHPJAAF^JPFC GCOYQ PO DTF[JC

Gor hfab hpjso`h og afpjtfc aomtroc# wh stu`y 64 whhes "fdout omh qufrthr* dhgorh fm fgthr tbh

whhe og jts jlpchlhmtftjom- F aoumtry js jmacu`h fs f possjdch aolpomhmt og tbh aomtroc iroupjg# gor tbh ijvhm 48,whhe sflpch phrjo # jt j mot jmtroùah fmy afpjtfc aomtrocs fm jt bf moljssjmi odshrvftjoms gor tbh shchath aomtroc vfrjfdchs; lutufc gum rhturm# totfc mht fsshts"PMF*# whhecy rhturm om stoae lfreht jm`hx# whhecy rhturm om dom lfreht jm`hx# fm whhecyrhturm om gorhjim hxabfmih rfth-

Pfdch @6;

64 Lfrab 4>>2

Pfxjmi Gjxh`,Jmaolh Jmvhstlhmt

Aoumtry Yhjibt Aoumtry Yhjibt Aoumtry Yhjibt

Fust rfc jf >-66: Jmòmhsjf >->>> Qjmifporh >->>>

Fustrjf >->>> Jsrfhc >->>> Qoutb Fgrjaf >->>>

Dhcijul >->>> Jtfcy >->>> Qpfjm >->>>

Afmf`f >->>> K fpfm >->>> Qwh hm >->>>

Abjch >->86Thpudcja ogEorhf

>->>> Qwjtzhrcfm >->>>

^TA >->>> Lfcfysjf >->>> Pfjphj#Abjmf >-0:7

Azhab Thpudcja >->>> Lhxjao >->>> Pbfjcfm >->>>

Hiypt >->>> Mhtbhrcfm`s >->>> Purehy >->>>

Grfmah >->>> Morwfy >->>> Xmjth` Ejmiòl >-147

Bomi Eomi# Abjmf >->>> ^bjcjppjmhs >->>> Xmjth Qtfths >->>:

Jm jf >->>> TussjfmGh`hrftjom

>->>> Wjht Mfl >->>>

^TA


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11

Pfdch @4; Auttjmi Gjxh`,Jmaolh Pfx

41 Oatodhr 4>>2Aoumtry Yhjibt Aoumtry Yhjibt Aoumtry Yhjibt

Fustrfcjf >->>> Jmòmhsjf >->>> Qjmifporh >->>>

Fustrjf >->>> Jsrfhc >->>> Qoutb Fgrjaf >->>>Dhcijul >->>> Jtfcy >->>> Qpfjm >->>>

Afmf`f >->>> K fpfm >->>> Qwh hm >->>>

Abjch >->>>Thpudcja ogEorhf

>->>> Qwjtzhrcfm >->>>

^TA >->>> Lfcfysjf >->>> Pfjphj#Abjmf >-4:0

Azhab Thpudcja >->>> Lhxjao >-60> Pbfjcfm >->>>

Hiypt >->>> Mhtbhrcfm`s >->>> Purehy >->>>

Grfmah >->>> Mhw [hfcfm >->>> Xmjth Ejmiòl >->>>

Ihrlfmy >->>> Morwfy >->>> Xmjth Qtfths >->>>

Irhhah >->>> ^bjcjppjmhs >->>> Wjht Mfl >->>>Bomi Eomi# Abjmf >->>> ôrtuifc >->>>

Jm`jf >-144TussjfmGh`hrftjom

>-400

^TA Oatodhr 4>>:

Pfxjmi Qtoae fm` Dom` Jmvhstlhmt ft 4(


Fust rfc jf >->:9 Irhhah >->>>TussjfmGh`hrftjom

>-087

Fustrjf >->>>Bomi Eomi#Abjmf

>->>> Qjmifporh >->>>

Dhcijul >->>> Jm`jf >-14> Qoutb Fgrjaf >->>>

Afmf`f >->>> Jmòmhsjf >-647 Qpfjm >->>>

Abjch >->>> Jsrfhc >->>> Qwh hm >->>>

^TA >->>> Jtfcy >->>> Qwjtzhrcfm >->>>

Aocoldjf >->>> K fpfm >->>> Pfjphj#Abjmf >->>>

Azhab Thpudcja >->>> Lfcfysjf >->>> Pbfjcfm >->>>

@hmlfre >->>> Lhxjao >->>> Purehy >->>>Hiypt >->>> Mhtbhrcfm`s >->>> Xmjth Ejmiòl >->>>

Grfmah >->>> Mhw [hfcfm >->>> Xmjth Qtfths >->>>

Ihrlfmy >->>> Morwfy >->>> Wjht Mfl >->>>^TA


36/37


10

Pfdch @0;

0 Oatodhr 4>6>

Jmarhfsjmi Pfxhs grol 4( to 0(


Fustrfcjf >->>> Ihrlfmy >-164 ^bjc jppjmhs >->41

Fustrjf >->>> Irhhah >->>> ôcfm >->>>

Dhcijul >->>>Bomi Eomi#Abjmf

>-64>Qjmifporh

>->>>

Afmf`f >->>> Jm`jf >-1>7 Qoutb Fgrjaf >->>>

Abjch >->>> Jsrfhc >->>> Qpfjm >->>>

^TA >-4>4 Jtfcy >->>> Qwh`hm >->>>

Aocoldjf >->>> K fpfm >->>> Qwjtzhrcfm` >->>>

Azhab Thpudcja >->>> Lfcfysjf >->>> Xmjth Ejmiòl >->>>

@hmlfre >->>> Lhxjao >->>> Xmjth Qtfths >->>>

Hiypt >->>> Mhtbhrcfm`s >->>> Wjht Mfl >->>>

Gjmcfm >->>> Mhw [hfcfm >->>>Grfmah >->14 Morwfy >->>>

^TA -12( to 7(

Jmarhfsjmi Pfxhs grol 0->>( to 7->>(

62 Oatodhr 4>6>


Fustrfcjf >->>> Ihrlfmy >->>> ^bjcjppjmhs >->>>Fustrjf >->>> Irhhah >->>> ôcfm` >->>>

Dhcijul >->>>Bomi Eomi#Abjmf

>->>>Qjmifporh

>->>>

Afmf`f >->>> Jm`jf >->:9 Qoutb Fgrjaf >->>>

Abjch >->>> Jsrfhc >->>> Qpfjm >->>>

^TA >-:>1 Jtfcy >->>> Qwh`hm >->>>

Aocoldjf >->>> K fpfm >->>> Qwjtzhrcfm` >->>>

Azhab Thpudcja >->>> Lfcfysjf >->>> Xmjth Ejmiòl >->>>

@hmlfre >->>> Lhxjao >->>> Xmjth Qtfths >->>>

Hiypt >->>> Mhtbhrcfm`s >->>> Wjht Mfl >->>>Gjmcfm >->>> Mhw [hfcfm >->>>

Grfmah >->>> Morwfy >->>>^TA


37/37


Pfdch @7

Aoumtry

; Thùajmi Pfxhs grol 7( to 4( 1 Kfmufry 4>66

Yhjibt Aoumtry Yhjibt Aoumtry Yhjibt

Fust rfc jf >-:84 Ihrlfmy >->02 ^bjcjppjmhs >->>>

Fustrjf >->>> Irhhah >->>> ôcfm >->>>

Dhcijul >->>>Bomi Eomi#Abjmf >->>> ôrtuifc >->>>

Afmf`f >->>> Jm jf >->>>TussjfmGh`hrftjom

>->>>

Abjch >->>> Jsrfhc >->>> Qjmifporh >->>>

^TA >->>> Jtfcy >->>> Qoutb Fgrjaf >->>>

Aocoldjf >->>> K fpfm >->>> Qpfjm >->>>

Azhab Thpudcja >->>> Lfcfysjf >->>> Qwh hm >->>>

@hmlfre >->>> Lhxjao >->>> Qwjtzhrcfm >->>>

Hiypt >->>> Mhtbhrcfm`s >->>> Xmjth Ejmiòl >->>>

Gjmcfm >->>> Mhw [hfcfm >->>> Xmjth Qtfths >->>>

Grfmah >->>> Morwfy >->>> Wjht Mfl >->>>^TA

what lessons can asia draw from capital controls in brazil during 2008–2012?

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