what is the real recession risk - store & retrieve data ... · recession resistant mpl 4 10 16...
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?What is the real recession
RISKScott Langmack
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!FEAR
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What Analysts SayMoody’s
Lending ClubProsperOthers
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Marketplace Lending Unsecured Consumer Debt
Analysts: Unemployment to Charge-Offs 1:0.8
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In A Fear Cycle, Predictions Are Typically
Worse Than Reality
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Most projections are more negative than reality
Both Unemployment and Impact of unemployment= compound negativity
Source: Business Insider
Analyst Consensus: Unemployment Predictions
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History has shown…
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Source: United States Federal Reserve
Credit Card Performance for the Past Two Decades
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Comparison of $100,000 Starting Fall 2007
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Why have confidence in category resilience?
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Cherry-Picking The Best From Banking
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A good credit score is your ticket to the American Dream
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Ego, Self Worth, Personal Identity
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A Substitute For 2nd Mortgages
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Having The Power Of A Bank To
Destroy Defaulter’s Credit
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It gets better…
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Time is on our side
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Source: United States Federal Reserve
Credit Card Performance for the Past Two Decades
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With Time, We Have Levers To Work With To Preserve
Returns and Capital
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Recession Scenario: Base
Monthly Returns
Recession
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Monthly Returns
Recession Scenario: Originator Rate Increase
Recession
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Monthly Returns
Recession Scenario: Adjust Term & Reserves
Recession
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Monthly Returns
Recession Scenario: Custom Loan Selection
Recession
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Monthly Returns
Recession Scenario: How It All Adds Up
Base
Managed
Recession
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Incline Pre-Fund and Fund Starting 2008/2010
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Thank You
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