what is the future of the rare earths sector?
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Objective Capital's Global Resources Investment Forum 2012 Ironmongers' Hall, City of London 25 September 2012 Speaker: Gary Billingsley, Great Western MineralsTRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL RESOURCESINVESTMENT FORUM
IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● TUESDAY, 25 SEPTEMBER 2012
www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?Gary Billingsley – Executive Chairman, Great Western Minerals
TSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.caTSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.ca
Rare Earths: What Does The Future Hold?
Objective Capital ConferencesLondon, UK Sept. 25th, 2012
Cautionary Statement on Forward Looking Statements
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441 Projects…269 Companies…37 Countries
Source: TMR, GWMG
Perspective: Global RE Projects August 2012
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43 Advanced Projects40 Companies13 Countries
Perspective: Global Rare Earth DemandKey elements of anticipated global demand for Rare Earth Oxides:
2012 Demand 2016 Demand IncreaseTonnes (China%) Tonnes (China%)
Permanent Magnets 23,000 (78%) 36,000 (78%) 56%NiMH Batteries 22,500 (73%) 30,000 (77%) 33%Catalysts 22,000 (58%) 25,000 (62%) 14%Phosphors 9,000 (67%) 12,000 (71%) 33%Total REO 115,000 160,000 39%Chinese Demand 77,000(67%) 104,000(65%) 35%
By 2016, the most significant surpluses (%supply>demand) of REO’s will include: Lanthanum 41%Cerium 25%Samarium 275%
By 2016, the most significant shortages (%demand>supply) of REO’s will include:Europium 30%Terbium 55%Dysprosium 28%Yttrium 35% Source: IMCOA Aug 2012
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Perspective: Global Rare Earth SupplyKey locations of current REE Reserves and Production include (in tonnes):
Reserves (t) Production (2011 t)United States 13,120,000 0Australia 1,700,000 0China 55,220,000(48%) 138,800(97%)Others (CIS, India etc) 44,280,000 3,600Global Total (rounded) 114,000,000 142,400Source: USGS January 2012
Chinese Take On World Resources
United States 13,000,000Australia 5,400,000China 18,590,000 (23%)Others 44,100,000Global Total 81,090,000
Source: China Rare Earth Industry Association August 2012
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Perspective: Global Rare Earth SupplyThe history of the Chinese export quotas is as follows:
Quota (Tonnes) % Change Over Prior Year2005 65,609 2006 61,821 - 6%2007 60,074 - 3%2008 56,939 - 5%2009 50,145 -12%2010 30,258 -40%2011 30,184 -0.2%2012 30,996 + 3%
LRE 27,122 M/HRE 3,874
However…Only 18,600t of the 30,184t quota in2011 was exported!
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Perspective: REO Pricing
CeO2 Dy2O3
Eu2O3 Nd2O3
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What Else Is Happening In China?
• Fine-tuning the quota: now split into LRE and MLE/HRE quantities. Companies now required to pass pollution control inspections.
• Mining licenses reduced: In 2012 only 67 mining licenses issued down from 113 in 2011. Ionic clay licenses (included in the previous total) were down to 45 from 88 the year before.
• Industry consolidation: in north China, Baotou Steel Rare Earths has announced forming a conglomerate to protect resources and improve vertical integration in the industry. This includes production, R&D, trading, stockpiling and capital management.
• Baotou Rare Earths Exchange: established Sept 2012, founders control over 80% of production and export quotas. The Exchange will attempt to stabilize pricing locally and internationally.
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What Is Happening In The ROW?
• Exploration and development still ongoing but slowing down.
• More effort being put into HREE-enriched deposits
• Third party separation plants are being built: already established in Vietnam, Laos and Thailand, India and announced in North America.
• Initiatives focused on substitution, technical design, and recycling still ongoing
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So Is The Panic Over?What next?
• Generally yes, but there is still concern over HREE.
• Vertical integration still necessary outside China as there are still not enough third party processors.
• Prices are still coming down. The Chinese are not interested in seeing prices drop too low. Whether their price control efforts work remains to be seen
• If the price of LREE drops too far it effectively increases the cost of producing Nd/Pr and HREE.
• Some substitution/technical advancement/recycling will be successful, but in most cases it will be hard to get rid of rare earths
• HREE projects need to accelerate progress and LREE projects may not succeed.
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Why Vertically Integrate?
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Upstream viewpoint:• Mining not profitable in times of low prices• Mining does not produce a saleable product outside China• Vertical integration results in saleable products and increased potential for
profit when prices are low
Downstream viewpoint:• Dependency on China reduces security of supply for customers• Competitive pricing is difficult when purchasing raw materials from China• Vertical integration allows greater flexibility in fixing margins, increasing
profitability and competitiveness while offering customers security of supply
Great Western Minerals Group
Ltd.
Hoidas LakeDouglas RiverRed WineBenjamin River
GWMG Corporate Structure
100%100%
74%
75% 100%100%
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Various %
Rareco LCM
North American
Exploration
Birkenhead, U.K
Troy, MichiganSKK
(Steenkampskraal)
GWTI
(Planned)Marketing
Co.
GQD Joint
Venture
B.E.E.(26%)
Steenkampskraal
Region
Tax Effective Location
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GWMG’s Fully Integrated Model
Exploration
Mining
Mixed Chloride Production
Alloy Production
Solvent Extraction Separation
Industry Product Manufacturing
Metal Making
• Ore
• Concentrate and Mixed Rare Earth Chloride
• Individual Rare Earth Oxides
• Industrial, Consumer & Military End Products
• High Purity Rare Earth Metals
GWMG’s fully integrated model adds a sustainable competitive advantage
• Magnet alloys, super-alloys & other end-user metal alloys
• Drilling Results & Mine Development Plan
• Mining: •GWMG owns 74% of the SKK mining operation•GWMG owns 100% of the SKK mine output
• Mixed Chloride Production:• GWMG owns 100% of chloride production
plant• Solvent Extraction Separation:
•GWMG owns 75% of separation plant, 100% of oxide production through GWMG marketing company
•Marketing company has chloride separated on a tolling basis, retaining 100% GWMG control
• Metal Making:•GWMG owns 100% of metal making that buys
GWMG produced oxides• Alloy Production:
•GWMG owns 100% of LCM and GWTI that manufacture alloys from GWMG owned metal
GWMG: Maintaining Control
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GWMG MilestonesGWMG focuses on major milestones during
2012/2013:
• Operate with expanded furnace capacity at LCM.• Commence mining at Steenkampskraal• Q3 2012 scheduled receipt of chloride
production plant and separation plant CapEx, OpEx and timelines.
• Q4 2012 scheduled completion of Preliminary Economic Assessment.
• EPCM for Mixed Chloride Production Plant for construction.
• EPCM for Separation Plant for construction.
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TSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.caTSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.ca
Thank You
Objective Capital Conferences September 25th, 2012