what is the future of the rare earths sector?

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GLOBAL RESOURCES INVESTMENT FORUM IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON TUESDAY, 25 SEPTEMBER 2012 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com What is the future of the Rare Earths sector? Gary Billingsley – Executive Chairman, Great Western Minerals

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Objective Capital's Global Resources Investment Forum 2012 Ironmongers' Hall, City of London 25 September 2012 Speaker: Gary Billingsley, Great Western Minerals

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Page 1: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

GLOBAL RESOURCESINVESTMENT FORUM

IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● TUESDAY, 25 SEPTEMBER 2012

www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com

What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?Gary Billingsley – Executive Chairman, Great Western Minerals

Page 2: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

TSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.caTSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.ca

Rare Earths: What Does The Future Hold?

Objective Capital ConferencesLondon, UK Sept. 25th, 2012

Page 3: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

Cautionary Statement on Forward Looking Statements

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Page 4: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

441 Projects…269 Companies…37 Countries

Source: TMR, GWMG

Perspective: Global RE Projects August 2012

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43 Advanced Projects40 Companies13 Countries

Page 5: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

Perspective: Global Rare Earth DemandKey elements of anticipated global demand for Rare Earth Oxides:

2012 Demand 2016 Demand IncreaseTonnes (China%) Tonnes (China%)

Permanent Magnets 23,000 (78%) 36,000 (78%) 56%NiMH Batteries 22,500 (73%) 30,000 (77%) 33%Catalysts 22,000 (58%) 25,000 (62%) 14%Phosphors 9,000 (67%) 12,000 (71%) 33%Total REO 115,000 160,000 39%Chinese Demand 77,000(67%) 104,000(65%) 35%

By 2016, the most significant surpluses (%supply>demand) of REO’s will include: Lanthanum 41%Cerium 25%Samarium 275%

By 2016, the most significant shortages (%demand>supply) of REO’s will include:Europium 30%Terbium 55%Dysprosium 28%Yttrium 35% Source: IMCOA Aug 2012

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Page 6: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

Perspective: Global Rare Earth SupplyKey locations of current REE Reserves and Production include (in tonnes):

Reserves (t) Production (2011 t)United States 13,120,000 0Australia 1,700,000 0China 55,220,000(48%) 138,800(97%)Others (CIS, India etc) 44,280,000 3,600Global Total (rounded) 114,000,000 142,400Source: USGS January 2012

Chinese Take On World Resources

United States 13,000,000Australia 5,400,000China 18,590,000 (23%)Others 44,100,000Global Total 81,090,000

Source: China Rare Earth Industry Association August 2012

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Page 7: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

Perspective: Global Rare Earth SupplyThe history of the Chinese export quotas is as follows:

Quota (Tonnes) % Change Over Prior Year2005 65,609 2006 61,821 - 6%2007 60,074 - 3%2008 56,939 - 5%2009 50,145 -12%2010 30,258 -40%2011 30,184 -0.2%2012 30,996 + 3%

LRE 27,122 M/HRE 3,874

However…Only 18,600t of the 30,184t quota in2011 was exported!

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Page 8: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

Perspective: REO Pricing

CeO2 Dy2O3

Eu2O3 Nd2O3

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Page 9: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

What Else Is Happening In China?

• Fine-tuning the quota: now split into LRE and MLE/HRE quantities. Companies now required to pass pollution control inspections.

• Mining licenses reduced: In 2012 only 67 mining licenses issued down from 113 in 2011. Ionic clay licenses (included in the previous total) were down to 45 from 88 the year before.

• Industry consolidation: in north China, Baotou Steel Rare Earths has announced forming a conglomerate to protect resources and improve vertical integration in the industry. This includes production, R&D, trading, stockpiling and capital management.

• Baotou Rare Earths Exchange: established Sept 2012, founders control over 80% of production and export quotas. The Exchange will attempt to stabilize pricing locally and internationally.

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Page 10: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

What Is Happening In The ROW?

• Exploration and development still ongoing but slowing down.

• More effort being put into HREE-enriched deposits

• Third party separation plants are being built: already established in Vietnam, Laos and Thailand, India and announced in North America.

• Initiatives focused on substitution, technical design, and recycling still ongoing

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Page 11: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

So Is The Panic Over?What next?

• Generally yes, but there is still concern over HREE.

• Vertical integration still necessary outside China as there are still not enough third party processors.

• Prices are still coming down. The Chinese are not interested in seeing prices drop too low. Whether their price control efforts work remains to be seen

• If the price of LREE drops too far it effectively increases the cost of producing Nd/Pr and HREE.

• Some substitution/technical advancement/recycling will be successful, but in most cases it will be hard to get rid of rare earths

• HREE projects need to accelerate progress and LREE projects may not succeed.

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Page 12: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

Why Vertically Integrate?

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Upstream viewpoint:• Mining not profitable in times of low prices• Mining does not produce a saleable product outside China• Vertical integration results in saleable products and increased potential for

profit when prices are low

Downstream viewpoint:• Dependency on China reduces security of supply for customers• Competitive pricing is difficult when purchasing raw materials from China• Vertical integration allows greater flexibility in fixing margins, increasing

profitability and competitiveness while offering customers security of supply

Page 13: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

Great Western Minerals Group

Ltd.

Hoidas LakeDouglas RiverRed WineBenjamin River

GWMG Corporate Structure

100%100%

74%

75% 100%100%

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Various %

Rareco LCM

North American

Exploration

Birkenhead, U.K

Troy, MichiganSKK

(Steenkampskraal)

GWTI

(Planned)Marketing

Co.

GQD Joint

Venture

B.E.E.(26%)

Steenkampskraal

Region

Tax Effective Location

Page 14: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

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GWMG’s Fully Integrated Model

Exploration

Mining

Mixed Chloride Production

Alloy Production

Solvent Extraction Separation

Industry Product Manufacturing

Metal Making

• Ore

• Concentrate and Mixed Rare Earth Chloride

• Individual Rare Earth Oxides

• Industrial, Consumer & Military End Products

• High Purity Rare Earth Metals

GWMG’s fully integrated model adds a sustainable competitive advantage

• Magnet alloys, super-alloys & other end-user metal alloys

• Drilling Results & Mine Development Plan

Page 15: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

• Mining: •GWMG owns 74% of the SKK mining operation•GWMG owns 100% of the SKK mine output

• Mixed Chloride Production:• GWMG owns 100% of chloride production

plant• Solvent Extraction Separation:

•GWMG owns 75% of separation plant, 100% of oxide production through GWMG marketing company

•Marketing company has chloride separated on a tolling basis, retaining 100% GWMG control

• Metal Making:•GWMG owns 100% of metal making that buys

GWMG produced oxides• Alloy Production:

•GWMG owns 100% of LCM and GWTI that manufacture alloys from GWMG owned metal

GWMG: Maintaining Control

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Page 16: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

GWMG MilestonesGWMG focuses on major milestones during

2012/2013:

• Operate with expanded furnace capacity at LCM.• Commence mining at Steenkampskraal• Q3 2012 scheduled receipt of chloride

production plant and separation plant CapEx, OpEx and timelines.

• Q4 2012 scheduled completion of Preliminary Economic Assessment.

• EPCM for Mixed Chloride Production Plant for construction.

• EPCM for Separation Plant for construction.

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Page 17: What is the future of the Rare Earths sector?

TSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.caTSX.V: GWG OTCQX: GWMGF [email protected] www.gwmg.ca

Thank You

Objective Capital Conferences September 25th, 2012