what is risk?
DESCRIPTION
What is Risk?. Stella Swanson Golder Associates Ltd. Betty Hutchinson Northern Mines Monitoring Secretariat. Ecological Risk Assessment Workshop June 2005. Risk is an Everyday Thing. Planning a Boat Trip. Goal: Make Sure the Boat Stays Afloat. Is It Safe?. Standards: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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What is Risk?
Stella SwansonGolder Associates Ltd.
Betty HutchinsonNorthern Mines Monitoring Secretariat
Ecological Risk Assessment Workshop June 2005
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Risk is an Everyday Thing
Planning a Boat Trip
Goal: Make Sure the Boat Stays Afloat
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Is It Safe?
Standards:
• The rating of the motor
• How many people can the boat hold?
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Is It Safe?Variables:• Weather
• Distances to be travelled
• Experience of the boat operator
• Condition of the boat and motor
• The navigation aids and equipment – e.g. maps
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How Sure Are We?
Add to Our Confidence That it is Safe By:• Having enough approved life vests
• Having a first aid kit and bailing equipment
• Having fishing gear along in case have to get emergency food
• Checking the fuel – and having extra fuel along
• Tool kit for motor repairs
• Filing a travel plan
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Is this Reasonable?How much risk
are we willing to take?
• Can we really count on the weather and are we prepared if the weather gets bad?
• Is there really room for one more moose?
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Assessment of Risksfrom Chemicals
Goal: Make sure fish continue to be present in normal numbers and in a healthy state
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Is it Safe?“Standards”:• Water quality guidelines or
objectives• Sediment quality guidelines• Consumption guidelines for
concentration of chemicals in fish
• Benchmarks –the level of chemical where we are confident that the fish are protected at the population level
Benchmark
Guideline
Effluent Discharge Point
100 mDownstream
500 mDownstream
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Is it Safe?“Variables:”• Amount of chemical being
released after treatment in the effluent treatment system
• Size of the creek, river or lake that the chemical is entering
• Amount of the creek or lake that has changes in chemical concentrations
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Is it Safe?Variables, Cont’d• The kinds of fish present in the
creek, river or lake and how sensitive they are to the chemicals
• Whether the fish use the area right where the chemical enters the creek, river or lake for things such as spawning or over-wintering
• Whether the chemical is in a form that can enter the body of the fish
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How Sure Are We?Chemical• Treat the effluent to the
best of our ability in order to get chemical concentrations down as low as practical
• Apply safety factors to the water quality or sediment quality objectives or to the effects benchmarks for fish
Boat Trip• Use life vests and
have bailing buckets in the boat
• Boat maximum capacity and motor rating include safety factors
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How Sure Are We?Chemical• Deliberately over-estimate the
amount of time fish spend in the area right where the effluent enters the river or lake
• Monitor the water, sediments and fish to be sure that our assessment is correct
• Go back and correct if monitoring shows assessment has some errors
Boat Trip• Look at worst case
weather scenarios
• Keep an eye on weather and performance of the motor
• Leave half of the moose behind if over-loading the boat
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Is that Reasonable?
• how important is it to protect fish?
• is the level of safety for the fish correct given how important the fish are?
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Is that Reasonable?Chemicals• Different people will
have different opinions as to acceptable risk
• Basic principle for fish: fish continue to be there in normal numbers and in a healthy state
Boat Trip• There may be differences in
opinion re loading the boat with the moose even if somewhat overloaded
• Basic principle: correct balance between benefit of bringing back the whole moose and the risk of swamping the boat