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2010 Demographic Analysis Update

This presentation is released to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion. Any views expressed on statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

 

Jason DevinePopulation DivisionU.S. Census Bureau

APDU 2010 Annual Conference Public Data 2010: Opportunities and Challenges for the New Decade

September 20, 2010

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What is Demographic Analysis (DA)?

The term Demographic Analysis can be used to refer to a set of methods that have historically been used to develop estimates of the population for comparison with decennial census counts. DA estimates are developed from historical vital statistics, estimates of international migration, and other data sources that are essentially independent of the census.

These estimates are then compared to census counts and differences by age, sex, and limited race groups are examined.

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Census 2010 Timeline

• December 2010– We will finalize a series of DA population estimates by

single year of age, sex, race (Black, non-Black), and Hispanic origin (under age 20).

– Apportionment counts will be released.

• January - March 2011– Redistricting data will be released on a flow basis.

• 2012– Survey-based estimates of coverage will be released.

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Focus for DA in 2010• Collaboration with external experts (Jan. 8

workshop, COPAFS, FSCPE, SDA, PAA, JSM, APDU, Summer at Census, Dec. 6 conference)

• A component based sensitivity analysis and a range of DA estimates

• Alternative approaches for assigning race to the birth records

• The use of data from the ACS to estimate international migration

• Estimates by Hispanic origin (by age and sex for ages under 20)

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Two DA Estimation Subgroups

• Ages under 65 are based on historical components of change for cohorts beginning with 1945 [births, deaths, immigration, emigration]:

P = B – D + I – E• Ages 65 and over are based on aggregate

Medicare enrollments, adjusted for under-enrollment.

• Estimates for the population 65-74 are also being developed from the components of change.

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Uncertainty in the DA Estimates

• DA estimates contain uncertainty from errors in the data (sampling and nonsampling), the assumptions used to construct the estimates, and the inconsistencies between the DA and census race and Hispanic origin categories.

• For 2010 DA, we are developing a series of estimates to demonstrate the impact of varying assumptions in each major component of the DA estimates.

• Uncertainty will vary across each DA estimate by single year of age, sex, race (Black, non-Black), and Hispanic origin (under age 20).

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DA Components in 2000

Component Estimate (in thousands)

Total Population 281,760

Population Under Age 65 in 2000 + Births starting with 1935 234,860 - Deaths to persons born since 1935 14,767 + Immigration of persons born since 1935 32,564 - Emigration of persons born since 1935 5,485

Population Ages 65 and Over in 2000 + Medicare-based population 33,245 + Estimated number not enrolled 1,342

247,172

34,587

Source: Robinson, J. Gregory. 2010. “Coverage of Population in Census 2000 Based on Demographic Analysis: The History Behind the Numbers.” Paper prepared for the Demographic Analysis Technical Review Workshop, January 8, 2010.

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April 1, 2010 DA and Postcensal Estimates

Source: Robinson, J. Gregory. 2010. “Coverage of Population in Census 2000 Based on Demographic Analysis: The History Behind the Numbers.” Paper prepared for the Demographic Analysis Technical Review Workshop, January 8, 2010.

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• Completeness of reporting– build ranges around estimates of the completeness of coverage

• Records for those that may not be in the census universe

– provide estimates with and without these records

• Potential data reporting errors– too small to include in the sensitivity analysis

• Uncertainty in provisional and projected values– use previous differences between provisional and projected

values and final values to establish a high and low range

• Different race classifications between vital statistics and the decennial census

What makes us uncertain about the number of births and deaths used in DA?

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Using Census 2000 Data to Estimate the Black Alone and Black in Combination Population

Census and DA comparison will include the censusBlack alone and the Black alone or in combination categories

Vital Statistics

Black alone (B)Remainder (A+C)

Single Race of Mother Single Race of Father

A) Non-Black Alone or in Combination (with only non-Black races)B) Black AloneC) Black in Combination

Each birth in the vital statistics needs to be assigned to one of the following three race categories

Some years A & NHPIare combined

Some years include multiple race reporting

Black alone or in combination (B+C)Remainder (A)

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Assignment of Race to Births When One Parent is Black and the other is non-Black

• Our model is based on the idea that how parents of specific combinations of Black and non-Black races assigned their children as Black Alone, Black In Combination, or non-Black Alone or In Combination (with non-Black races) in Census 2000 is how those same combinations will assign a race to their children and how they will self identify their race in the 2010 Census.

• An underlying assumption of this approach is that patterns in how people identify as multiracial has not changed.

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Census 2000 Race of Children by Parental Race Combinations

Based on tabulations of Census 2000 imputed race data excluding Some Other Race responses

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International Migration Sensitivity Analysis

• What makes us uncertain about our estimates of international migration?

– Different estimates from the ACS– Residence One Year Ago (ROYA)– Year of Entry (YOE)– ACS Ratio of Foreign Born to Native Born

– Underrepresentation of the foreign born in the ACS– Alternative estimates with different results

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DA Estimates of International Migration

• Estimates of migration flows from April 2000 to April 2010 by age, sex, and the DA race categories are being developed.

• Primary estimates are based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS).

• Alternative estimates of migration flows and the stock of the foreign born are being developed.

• Alternative assumptions and multiple estimates will be used in a sensitivity analysis.

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Alternative Data and Methods

1. Estimates developed using year of entry (YOE) instead of residence one year ago (ROYA)

2. Adjusting ACS-based estimates for possible underrepresentation of the foreign born

3. Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) Data

4. Stock Estimate of the Foreign Born

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Residence One Year Ago (ROYA) Method

• Refers to the method used in the Census Bureau’s postcensal population estimates and includes methods for estimating all of the components of international migration

• Foreign-born immigration– ACS data on reported residence one year ago

• Foreign-born emigration– Residual method is used to develop rates of foreign-

born emigration based on Census 2000 and ACS data

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ROYA Method (continued)

• United States – Puerto Rico Migration– ACS and Puerto Rico Community Survey (PRCS)

data on reported residence in the prior year (2005 forward)

• Net Native Migration– Relies on previous research using census data from

other countries

• Net Movement of the Armed Forces– Data from Defense Manpower Data Center

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Year of Entry (YOE) Method

• Foreign-born immigration– ACS data on reported year of entry

• Other components are based on the same methods used in the ROYA method.

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Estimates of Net International Migration Using the ROYA and YOE Methods: April 1, 2000 to April 1, 2010

ROYA - 9.5 million

YOE – 11.1 million

Coverage factors are being developed to account for under-representation of the foreign-born population in the ACS

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Legal Permanent Resident Data

• Data on Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) admissions from 1972 to 2008 have been obtained from the Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics.

• These data will be used to develop estimates of immigration of LPRs by year of arrival.

• Estimates will be used to assess the foreign-born immigration estimates based on the ROYA and YOE.

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Foreign-Born Stock Estimate

• We have developed stock estimates of the foreign born on April 1, 2010.

• Estimates were developed using a combination of administrative data, estimates of net migration of natives, and the ACS foreign born/native born ratio.

• These estimates will allow us to assess our estimate of the total foreign-born population.

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Foreign-Born Stock Estimate (continued)• An initial stock estimate of the foreign born on April 1,

2010 was 38.4 million.

• The Census 2000 population count included 31.1 million foreign born.

• The development of the stock estimate does not require a separate estimate of foreign-born emigration.

• If deaths to the foreign born that occurred between 2000 and 2010 are accounted for the difference between the two estimates can represent net gain due to international migration.

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Summary

• A series of DA population estimates by age, sex, race (Black/non-Black) and Hispanic origin (under age 20) will be finalized in December.

• DA has three major components: Vital Statistics, International Migration, Medicare Enrollment data.

• We are working to establish and benefit from collaborations with external experts.

• A goal for DA in 2010 is to effectively communicate the uncertainty in the DA estimates by providing a range of DA estimates.