What I’m Going to SayWhat I’m Going to Say• Everyone in this room understands how

climate works well enough -- arguing about the details is not worth your time

• Climate will change a lot in the next generation, and policy will be enacted in response to perceived needs

• The political right has been AWOL in proposing policy solutions to a global problem

• The world needs you to be engaged!

Ever Wonder Ever Wonder Why?Why?

• Day is warmer than night?

• Summer is warmer than winter?

• Miami is warmer than Minneapolis?

Five Simple FactsFive Simple Facts1. Today is Friday (on this side of dateline!)

2. Billions of people will need more energy to lift themselves out of abject poverty

3. Burning coal, oil, and gas produces CO2

4. CO2 emits heat

5. Heat warms things up

Nobody here disputes any of these statements

Nobody here disputes any of these statements

Forcing & FeedbacksForcing & Feedbacks• Doubled CO2 would add 4 Watts/m2, day

and night, winter and summer, pole to pole

• Producing a decent standard of living to 3 billion extra people won’t double CO2 this century: it will quadruple it (400% vs 30%)

• You should be extremely skeptical of claims of 8 Watts/m2 of negative feedback

• If the climate system really had such powerful negative feedback, climate could never have changed!

2 2 = 4 billion tons go out

Ocean

Fossil FuelBurning

+

8

800billion tons carbon

4billion tons go in

ATMOSPHERE

billion tons added every year

COCO22 “Budget” of the “Budget” of the WorldWorld

COCO22 “Budget” of the “Budget” of the WorldWorld

Extra heat comes from the water, not the faucet!

The Global Carbon The Global Carbon CycleCycle

The Global Carbon The Global Carbon CycleCycle

Fossil

Atmosphere

800 + 4/yr

Ocean

38,000

Land

2000

~90

~120

~120

8 GtC/yr

~90

About half the CO2 released by humans is absorbed by oceans and land

Where Has All the COWhere Has All the CO22 Gone?Gone?

Where Has All the COWhere Has All the CO22 Gone?Gone?

• Into the oceansoceans– Solubility pump (CO2 very soluble in cold water, but

rates are limited by slow physical mixing)– Biological pump (slow “rain” of organic debris)

• Into the landland– CO2 Fertilization

(plants eat CO2 … is more better?)– Nutrient fertilization

(N-deposition and fertilizers)– Land-use change

(forest regrowth, fire suppression, woody encroachment … but what about Wal-Marts?)

– Response to changing climate (e.g., Boreal warming)

Vertical Structure Vertical Structure of the Oceansof the Oceans

Vertical Structure Vertical Structure of the Oceansof the Oceans

• Warm buoyant “raft” floats at surface• Deep water is icy cold, inky black, most of the

ocean doesn’t know we’re here yet! • Very stable, hard to mix, takes ~ 1000 years!

sfc

4 km

Observing the Deep Observing the Deep OceanOcean

Observing the Deep Observing the Deep OceanOcean

WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global Survey Data

Observing the Deep Observing the Deep OceanOcean

Observing the Deep Observing the Deep OceanOcean

Measured Fossil COMeasured Fossil CO22

• Nearly all the fossil CO2 is confined to the upper “mixed layer” of the ocean

• Deeper water can hold way more CO2, but is cold and dense

• Takes about 1000 years to mix the oceans in the vertical

Dissolved in the OceansDissolved in the Oceans

Atlantic

Pacific

Indian

industrialrevolution

you arehere

CO

2 (p

pm)

The Long TailThe Long TailThe Long TailThe Long Tail“When we reduce or stop the burning of

fossil fuel, the CO2 will go away and things will go back to normal”

CO2 from fossil fuel will react with oceans, but only as fast as they “mix”

Eventually, fossil CO2 will react with rocks

Much of the CO2 emitted in China & India will stay in the air for many thousands of years!

Simple Facts RevisitedSimple Facts Revisited1. CO2 emits heat

2. CO2 stays around for thousands of years

3. Extra heat warms things up

4. Earth’s climate has always changed because of differences in heat

Physics doesn’t carePeople will have to

adapt

Physics doesn’t carePeople will have to

adapt

Bad & Ineffective Bad & Ineffective PolicyPolicy

• Lightbulbs

• State or national-level “penalties”

• Government choosing winners & losers

• Fiddling with the details

• Making people poorer

Effective SolutionsEffective Solutions• Decent quality of life for billions of people

• Energy to provide for wealth and well-being

• Only a free market can bring this about

• Who will advocate for effective solutions?

• If free-market advocates shirk their responsibility, others will dictate policy

When will you stand up and offer

solutions?

When will you stand up and offer

solutions?

What I SaidWhat I Said• Everyone in this room understands how

climate works well enough -- arguing about the details is not worth your time

• Climate will change a lot in the next generation, and policy will be enacted in response to perceived needs

• The political right has been AWOL in proposing policy solutions to a global problem

• The world needs you to be engaged!