What Happened during Twenty Years after the first EMECS (1990) (1/2)

• 30% Increase of World Population5.29 billion (1990)

to 6.91 billion (2010)

• More than Doubled Gross World Product27.5 trillion (1990) to 62.3 trillion (2010)

in dollars (1990)

M. Suzuki

8

4

2

0

6

8

4

2

0

6

More Developed Countries

Less Developed Countries

billions

What Happened during Twenty Years after the first EMECS (1990) (2/2)

• Down-Sizing of the World: three profiles– Progress of IT technologies

• Performance of Computer: a million times in twenty years

• Common sharing of various information

– Collapse of the East-West structures• Unification of economy systems, aggravation of worldwide

competition in resources acquisition

– Clarification of the mechanism and fragility of the earth system through global climate change events

⇒ Understanding of the finiteness of the Globe capacity.

M. Suzuki

Global Warming Simulation

Sum

#１

#500

1000 times per

10 years

Pe

rfo

rman

ceWorld Top500 Computer Performance Development

Glacier/S now24,064

Ground water23,400

Sea Water1,338,000

Prec ipitation458

E vaporation502.8

E vaporation65.25

Prec ipitation110

S oil Moisture17

Permafros t300

BiologicalWater

1

176L ake

River water2

Mar sh11

Water Vaporover L and

3

Water Vaporover Ocean

10

2.2 42.6

2.2

44.8

Global Water Distribution

Unit: 1012 m3, 1012 m3/year Suzuki

and Cycle

Limited Water Supply

.

Organincs, N, P, IC, SS

Algae

AlgaeHeterotrophs

Sedimentation

Sedimentation

Aeration

Flow Flow

IC, N, P

IC, Metabolites

Metabolites

IC

recurrence

Sediment, Aerobic/Anaerobic

Metabolites, IC, P

Volatile Organics

Water Quality Model in Eutrophicated Water Body

Metabolites

Dissolvd Orgaanics

Oxygen

Precipitation

Forest,

Mountainous Area

Agriculture,

Stockbreediing

Anthropogenic Sphere

Water supply

Sources

Rivers

Receiving water body

Organics

Sun Light

Evaporation

Sun Light

Factors Influencing Water Qualities in Basin Area

M. Suzuki

Enclosed Sea

Results of Human Activities ⇒ Enclosed Seas

Human Pressures on Water Environment

Drivers Examples of Pressures on Water Environment

Population

Growth

Increased competition for land and resources,

Increased load to natural systems

Economic

Growth

Can increase natural resource use and

pollution

Social ChangeAwareness can lower impact

Consumption lifestyles can increase impact

Technological

Innovation

Can increase/decrease impacts-sometimes

both

Policies, Laws

and FinanceCan impose protection measures

Climate Change

Threatens ecological balances, Extreme

Events,

Flood, Drought, Leads to shifting habitats

Modified from Richard Connor

Example of Human Impact

• Global/local change has more human/social dimensions

than natural dimension

• Nitrogen balance

as an example:

Nitrogen Fixation

150

100

50

0Glo

bal

N f

ixat

ion

(Tg

/yr)

YEARAfter Vitousek (1994)

Nitrogen Flux to Coastal Zone

Nit

roge

n F

lux

(Tg/

yr)

0

50

100

YEAR

After Mackenzie et al (2002)

For food security,

ammonium synthesis and

industrial agriculture begin

Excess nitrogen applied is flushed to receiving water bodies

Eutrophication of water and deterioration of ecosystems in fresh and saline water

World Run-off Monthly

http://www.grdc.sr.unh.edu/

-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

90

60

30

0

-30

-60

-90

90

60

30

0

-30

-60

-90

Human Densities Seen at Night

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/earthday/gall_earth_night.html

-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

90

60

30

0

-30

-60

-90

90

60

30

0

-30

-60

-90

-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180

90

60

30

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-30

-60

-90

90

60

30

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-30

-60

-90

Human Densities and Sea Programs21 Enclosed Seas, EMECSRegional Seas, UNEP

88 Enclosed/semienclosed Seas Identified by Ministry of Environment, Japan

Epicenter of The Eastern Japan Great Earthquake that caused Tsunami Disaster, March 11

18 out of 88 enclosed seas are located here.

Shin-Miyako city in the middle of Iwate coast, established as a typical traditional community in Tohoku (2010.1, pop 63,000)

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/massive_earthquake_hits_japan.html

A Tsunami after a powerful earthquake in Natori, Miyagi

Earthquake-triggered tsumanis sweep shores along Iwanuma in northern Japan.(Kyodo News/Associated Press)

http://hibikizi.net/2011/03/magnitude9-0/

Before and After: Upper: Yuriage, Natori and Lower: Yagawahama, Ishinomaki

NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team

ASTER Images of Baltimore, MD

March 14, 20112008

ASTER Images of Ofunato and Kesennuma Areas 130km North of Sendai, before and after

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/japanquake/pia13915.html

A Sight Seeing Boat on a Roof of a Travelors’ Lodge

Some of the Lessons Learnt from the Event

• Re-cognition of possible destructing powers of the Nature – Needs for more respect to the nature systems

that provide diversified services to human beings• Heavy damage due to the tsunami, especially on

marginal/fragile areas, such as enclosed seas – Needs for recovering fishery/recreational areas

after complete loss of ecosystems including bottom algae fields caused by the tsunami debris

• Radioactive substances emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi power plant– Needs for careful monitoring and establishing

fate analysis methods for radioactive substances in coastal seas