The US Elections: Impacts on International Development

Lawrence HaddadInstitute of Development Studies

Outline

• Why does America matter for development? • The current US commitment to development• Candidates’ foreign policy framings• What the candidates say• What others say• Will the election make a difference?

Why does America matter for Development?

• American sneezes and global contagion• The “war on terror” $, &• Multilaterialism and absent Gorillas• Control of World Bank still strong

US: commitment to development aid, trade, investment, migration, environment, security, technology

UK/US comparisonUS

• Strengths– Trade– Investment in poorer

countries• Weaknesses– Aid– Environment– Arms exports

• Improvement since 2003 + 0.3 points

UK• Strengths– Investment in poorer

countries– Environment

• Weaknesses– Migration– Arms exports

• Improvement since 2003 + 0.3 points

McCain

• Generations of service in Armed Forces

• Hanoi Hilton• Senate – energy independence– campaign finance reform– reductions in pork-barrel

spending

Obama

• Father, Kenyan (Luo) • Lived in Indonesia as young

boy• Mother worked in Ford

Foundation• Community organiser in

Chicago• Senate– Not many clues

Backgrounds of the Candidates

McCain: An Enduring Peace Built on Freedom

• Winning the war on terror• Defending the homeland• Uniting the world’s democracies• Revitalising the transatlantic

partnership• Shaping the Asia-Pacific Century• Building a hemisphere of peace

and prosperity• Aiding an African

Renaissance• Preventing Nuclear Proliferation• Securing Energy and Saving the

Environment

Obama: Renewing American Leadership

• Common Security for our Common Humanity

• Moving Beyond Iraq• Revitalising the Military• Halting the Spread of Nuclear

Weapons• Combating Global Terrorism• Rebuilding our Partnerships• Building Just, Secure,

Democratic Societies• Restoring America’s Trust

Foreign Policy Agendas: The Articles in Foreign Affairs

What do the articles reveal?McCain

• More the Idealist school– US security & prosperity depends

on outcome of struggles--international terrorism at heart--between Future and Past, Progress and Reaction, Liberty and Despotism

• Exceptionalism & Leadership– Next president has a mandate to

build an enduring global peace on foundations of freedom, opportunity, prosperity and hope

• Ready to show America and the world that this country’s best days are yet to come

Obama• More the Realist school

– Military strength “plus”• Four Freedoms & FDR• Marshall Plan & Truman• Peace Corps & JFK

• Cooperation & Interconnectedness– Neither retreat from nor bully the

world into submission– Security and well being of

Americans depends on security and well being of those who live beyond our borders

• We can be this America again– To welcome American help– To want to come to America– Pictures of JFK on living room walls

What do they say about development?McCain Obama

General I would enable entrepreneurs, exporters to increase access to international markets

I would press nations on the critical importance on good governance

I'll make the Millennium Development Goals American policy

I'll double annual foreign assistance from $25b to $50b by 2012

Educat-ion

With a decent education, you can free yourself from the threat of poverty

By 2010 I will invest at least $2 billion in a Global Education Fund.

Water Recent U.S commitment to a public-private partnership to deliver clean water to 10 million Africans by 2010 -- example of how the U.S.can help bring basic necessities to needy populations

Through increased funding of up to $1.3b annually and innovative programs like 'play pumps,' I will expand access to clean water and sanitation.

Health The key to eradicating many diseases in poorer countries is through more accessible preventative health care, particularly prenatal and child care.

I will increase funding for child and maternal health and ensure that increases in other important areas - including HIV/AIDS is not at the expense of those programs.

www.one.org

VP Debate, October 2, 2008

• IFILL: I want to get -- try to get you both to answer a question that neither of your principals quite answered when my colleague, Jim Lehrer, asked it last week, starting with you, Senator Biden. What promises -- given the events of the week, the bailout plan, all of this, what promises have you and your campaigns made to the American people that you're not going to be able to keep?

• BIDEN: Well, the one thing we might have to slow down is a commitment we made to double foreign assistance. We'll probably have to slow that down.

Colin Powell endorses Obama, October 19, 2008• MR. BROKAW: What's not on the screen right now that

concerns you that should be more prominent in the minds of the American people and the people running for president?

• GEN. POWELL: ….also we have to do a lot more with respect to poverty alleviation and helping the needy people of the world. We need to increase the amount of resources we put into our development programs to help the rest of the world. Because when you help the poorest in the world, you start to move them up an economic and social ladder, and they're not going to be moving toward violence or terrorism of the kind that we worry about.

AfricaMcCain

• AGOA• MCC/MCA• PEPFAR• Democracy • Reduce US Farm subsidies• AFRICOM

Obama• Add Value to Agriculture Initiative• Engage Chinese on rules of the

road on investment in Africa• GEE, GEF• Stick with AGOA, PEPFAR, MCA• More on judiciary, parliament,

enterprise

www.africa.com

Climate change McCain

as Senator• Vocal advocate of cap and

tradeas candidate• Dropped from speeches• “Drill baby drill”

Obamaas Senator• Support cap and trade, but

not outspokenas candidate• Strong advocate, green

technologies, employment• Advocate of US cap and

trade

TradeMcCain

• A free trader “to his fingertips” Irwin Stelzer, Sunday Times

Obama• Statements on unilateral

renegotiation of NAFTA• Union support, Democratic

Congress• “I believe in free trade….but

not that any trade agreement is a good agreement” (3rd debate)

McCain will• Expand AGOA• Not reform Bretton Woods• Not double aid• Not do much on climate change • Be more interventionist in humanitarian disaster• Use MCA

Obama will• Not be energetic on Doha• Be energetic on Climate deal, but

then lose interest and focus on green jobs

• Not double aid, although it will increase

• Improve America’s image overseas

• Try to reform Bretton-Woods

Things they will do & more things they should…

They should… • Reform USAID & double the Peace Corps• Lead on post-Kyoto & make trade agreements work politically• Double aid & make the MCA work better• Reduce US farm subsidies & focus on African agriculture • Improve accountability – “you are the change you have been waiting for”

•

Will the election make a difference to development? Yes, because..

• It mark the end of an extreme kind of unipolar/unilateral conservatism

• We are entering a phase where people in the US are looking more to government – good and bad for development

• It reinforces the power of democracy to correct mistakes