what does obama mean for international development
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Prof. Lawrence Haddad, Director of the Institute of Development Studies, Sussex, UK talks about how President Elect Obama may affect international developmentTRANSCRIPT
The US Elections: Impacts on International Development
Lawrence HaddadInstitute of Development Studies
Outline
• Why does America matter for development? • The current US commitment to development• Candidates’ foreign policy framings• What the candidates say• What others say• Will the election make a difference?
Why does America matter for Development?
• American sneezes and global contagion• The “war on terror” $, &• Multilaterialism and absent Gorillas• Control of World Bank still strong
US: commitment to development aid, trade, investment, migration, environment, security, technology
UK/US comparisonUS
• Strengths– Trade– Investment in poorer
countries• Weaknesses– Aid– Environment– Arms exports
• Improvement since 2003 + 0.3 points
UK• Strengths– Investment in poorer
countries– Environment
• Weaknesses– Migration– Arms exports
• Improvement since 2003 + 0.3 points
McCain
• Generations of service in Armed Forces
• Hanoi Hilton• Senate – energy independence– campaign finance reform– reductions in pork-barrel
spending
Obama
• Father, Kenyan (Luo) • Lived in Indonesia as young
boy• Mother worked in Ford
Foundation• Community organiser in
Chicago• Senate– Not many clues
Backgrounds of the Candidates
McCain: An Enduring Peace Built on Freedom
• Winning the war on terror• Defending the homeland• Uniting the world’s democracies• Revitalising the transatlantic
partnership• Shaping the Asia-Pacific Century• Building a hemisphere of peace
and prosperity• Aiding an African
Renaissance• Preventing Nuclear Proliferation• Securing Energy and Saving the
Environment
Obama: Renewing American Leadership
• Common Security for our Common Humanity
• Moving Beyond Iraq• Revitalising the Military• Halting the Spread of Nuclear
Weapons• Combating Global Terrorism• Rebuilding our Partnerships• Building Just, Secure,
Democratic Societies• Restoring America’s Trust
Foreign Policy Agendas: The Articles in Foreign Affairs
What do the articles reveal?McCain
• More the Idealist school– US security & prosperity depends
on outcome of struggles--international terrorism at heart--between Future and Past, Progress and Reaction, Liberty and Despotism
• Exceptionalism & Leadership– Next president has a mandate to
build an enduring global peace on foundations of freedom, opportunity, prosperity and hope
• Ready to show America and the world that this country’s best days are yet to come
Obama• More the Realist school
– Military strength “plus”• Four Freedoms & FDR• Marshall Plan & Truman• Peace Corps & JFK
• Cooperation & Interconnectedness– Neither retreat from nor bully the
world into submission– Security and well being of
Americans depends on security and well being of those who live beyond our borders
• We can be this America again– To welcome American help– To want to come to America– Pictures of JFK on living room walls
What do they say about development?McCain Obama
General I would enable entrepreneurs, exporters to increase access to international markets
I would press nations on the critical importance on good governance
I'll make the Millennium Development Goals American policy
I'll double annual foreign assistance from $25b to $50b by 2012
Educat-ion
With a decent education, you can free yourself from the threat of poverty
By 2010 I will invest at least $2 billion in a Global Education Fund.
Water Recent U.S commitment to a public-private partnership to deliver clean water to 10 million Africans by 2010 -- example of how the U.S.can help bring basic necessities to needy populations
Through increased funding of up to $1.3b annually and innovative programs like 'play pumps,' I will expand access to clean water and sanitation.
Health The key to eradicating many diseases in poorer countries is through more accessible preventative health care, particularly prenatal and child care.
I will increase funding for child and maternal health and ensure that increases in other important areas - including HIV/AIDS is not at the expense of those programs.
www.one.org
VP Debate, October 2, 2008
• IFILL: I want to get -- try to get you both to answer a question that neither of your principals quite answered when my colleague, Jim Lehrer, asked it last week, starting with you, Senator Biden. What promises -- given the events of the week, the bailout plan, all of this, what promises have you and your campaigns made to the American people that you're not going to be able to keep?
• BIDEN: Well, the one thing we might have to slow down is a commitment we made to double foreign assistance. We'll probably have to slow that down.
Colin Powell endorses Obama, October 19, 2008• MR. BROKAW: What's not on the screen right now that
concerns you that should be more prominent in the minds of the American people and the people running for president?
• GEN. POWELL: ….also we have to do a lot more with respect to poverty alleviation and helping the needy people of the world. We need to increase the amount of resources we put into our development programs to help the rest of the world. Because when you help the poorest in the world, you start to move them up an economic and social ladder, and they're not going to be moving toward violence or terrorism of the kind that we worry about.
AfricaMcCain
• AGOA• MCC/MCA• PEPFAR• Democracy • Reduce US Farm subsidies• AFRICOM
Obama• Add Value to Agriculture Initiative• Engage Chinese on rules of the
road on investment in Africa• GEE, GEF• Stick with AGOA, PEPFAR, MCA• More on judiciary, parliament,
enterprise
www.africa.com
Climate change McCain
as Senator• Vocal advocate of cap and
tradeas candidate• Dropped from speeches• “Drill baby drill”
Obamaas Senator• Support cap and trade, but
not outspokenas candidate• Strong advocate, green
technologies, employment• Advocate of US cap and
trade
TradeMcCain
• A free trader “to his fingertips” Irwin Stelzer, Sunday Times
Obama• Statements on unilateral
renegotiation of NAFTA• Union support, Democratic
Congress• “I believe in free trade….but
not that any trade agreement is a good agreement” (3rd debate)
McCain will• Expand AGOA• Not reform Bretton Woods• Not double aid• Not do much on climate change • Be more interventionist in humanitarian disaster• Use MCA
Obama will• Not be energetic on Doha• Be energetic on Climate deal, but
then lose interest and focus on green jobs
• Not double aid, although it will increase
• Improve America’s image overseas
• Try to reform Bretton-Woods
Things they will do & more things they should…
They should… • Reform USAID & double the Peace Corps• Lead on post-Kyoto & make trade agreements work politically• Double aid & make the MCA work better• Reduce US farm subsidies & focus on African agriculture • Improve accountability – “you are the change you have been waiting for”
•
Will the election make a difference to development? Yes, because..
• It mark the end of an extreme kind of unipolar/unilateral conservatism
• We are entering a phase where people in the US are looking more to government – good and bad for development
• It reinforces the power of democracy to correct mistakes