what does a tech bubble mean for the cloud market?
DESCRIPTION
It seems as though Silicon Valley has more money than it knows what to do with these days, but how long do we have until the trend of lofty valuations is over? Should you accrue funding in prep of a downturn? What does this mean for the cloud industry specifically?TRANSCRIPT
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Orrick Presentation How long will the music keep playing and what should an entrepreneurs strategy be in this environment
September 23, 2014
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The Cloud Market Has Bounded Back Nicely and Valuations are Rich
260%
230%
173% 160% 149%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280% BVP Cloud Computing Index38 Publicly Traded Cloud CompaniesIndexed as of Jan. 2011 | @ 9/19/14
BVP Cloud Index Nasdaq Index S&P Index Dow Jones
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Cloud Multiples are Lower Than Feb/Mar Levels But Still Healthy Compared to Historical Standards
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9.6x
4.8x
6.1x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
11.0x1/1/2012
2/1/20
123/1/20
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4/1/20
125/1/20
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6/1/20
127/1/20
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8/1/20
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9/1/20
1210
/1/201
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11/1/201
212
/1/201
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1/1/2013
2/1/20
133/1/20
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4/1/20
135/1/20
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6/1/20
137/1/20
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8/1/2013
9/1/20
1310
/1/201
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11/1/201
312
/1/201
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1/1/20
14
2/1/20
143/1/20
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4/1/20
145/1/20
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6/1/20
147/1/20
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8/1/20
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9/1/20
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NTM Multiples Over Time
NTM Multiples
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Cloud Valuations Are Rich Compared To On-Prem Software
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Cloud On-‐Prem
Total Market Cap ($ in mm) $159,731 $1,024,518
Median 2015 Revenue ($ in mm) $238 $5,951
Median FCF Margin 6.6% 25.1%
# of Companies 38 12
# of Companies >$1bn Market Cap 23 12
2015 Revenue Mut
Median 5.4x 3.8x
Low 1.0x 2.3x
High 16.2x 6.3x
Cloud includes the 38 public companies in the BVP Cloud Index.!On-Prem includes Adobe, Autodesk, CA, Citrix, EMC, IBM, Intuit, Microsoft, Oracle, Red Hat, SAP, VMware!
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Multiples Have Been Even Higher In the Private Markets
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300+ Great Cloud Companies Are Already At Escape Velocity
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You!!
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The Panel
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Byron Deeter !Bessemer!
Vik Singh !CEO/Co-Founder Infer!
Jason Green !Emergence Capital!
Godard Abel CEO/Founder SteelBrick !
Kirk Dunn !COO Cloudera!