What are they thinking? What

motivates the political parties

in a General Election

Margaret Ounsley, Public Affairs Directorate

Tuesday 24 March 2015

What are they thinking

• 45 million electorate, of which 20% live in

marginal constituencies

• 9m electorate, of which 15% are floating voters

• 1.35m electorate, of which 65% actually vote

• 877, 500 decide the outcome of the election

Source IPSOS Mori

Accounts 2014

Conservatives £27m

Labour £33m

Liberal Democrat £7m

Source: The Electoral Commission

UK marketing budgets 2013 (£)

1 British Sky Broadcasting Ltd 264,338,785

2 Procter & Gamble Ltd 177,257,396

3 BT Ltd 149,788,119

4 Unilever UK Ltd 119,100,702

5 Tesco Plc 116,269,526

6 Asda Stores Ltd 97,035,247

7 Talktalk Grp 92,545,979

8 Virgin Media 88,357,222

9 Wm Morrison Supermarkets Plc 81,522,591

10 Dfs Furniture Co Ltd 75,682,183

IN THE AIR

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5

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15

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Jan-15 Feb-15

NHS

Immigration

Economy

Unemployment

Poverty

Education

Defence

Crime/Law and Order

Housing

Pensions

Low Pay

Ipsos Mori polling of most important issues facing the UK

Leaders’

debate 2010

Image credit: The Guardian

ON THE GROUND

Seats the Conservatives need to win

Hampstead and Kilburn Glenda Jackson

Bolton West Julie Hilling

Solihull Lorely Burt

Southampton Itchen John Denham

Dorset Mid and Poole North Annette Brooke

Wirral South Alison McGovern

Derby North Chris Williamson

Wells Tessa Munt

Dudley North Ian Austin

Great Grimsby Austin Mitchell

Morley and Outwood Ed Balls

Telford David Wright

Walsall North David Winnick

St Austell and Newquay Stephen Gilbert

Somerton and Frome David Heath

Birmingham Edgbaston Gisela Stuart

Sutton and Cheam Paul Burstow

Halifax Linda Riordan

Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly

Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Tom Blenkinsop

Warwickshire North Dan Byles

Thurrock Jackie Doyle-Price

Hendon Matthew Offord

Cardiff North Jonathan Evans

Sherwood Mark Spencer

Norwich South Simon Wright

Stockton South James Wharton

Broxtowe Anna Soubry

Lancaster and Fleetwood Eric Ollerenshaw

Bradford East David Ward

Amber Valley Nigel Mills

Waveney Peter Aldous

Wolverhampton South West Paul Uppal

Morecambe and Lunesdale David Morris

Carlisle John Stevenson

Stroud Neil Carmichael

Weaver Vale Graham Evans

Lincoln Karl McCartney

Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Oliver Colville

Dewsbury Simon Reevell

Warrington South David Mowat

Brent Central Sarah Teather

Bedford Richard Fuller

Brighton Kemptown Simon Kirby

Pudsey Stuart Andrew

Corby Louise Bagshaw

Brentford and Isleworth Mary Macleod

Hove Mike Weatherley

Enfield North Nick de Bois

Hastings and Rye Amber Rudd

Manchester Withington John Leech

Burnley Gordon Birtwistle

Ipswich Ben Gummer

Dundee East Stewart Hosie

Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson

Halesowen and Rowley Regis James Morris

Nuneaton Marcus Jones

Gloucester Richard Graham

Northampton North Michael Ellis

Bury North David Nuttall

Kingswood Chris Skidmore

Erewash Jessica Lee

Blackpool North and Cleveleys Paul Maynard

Chester, City of Stephen Mosley

Arfon Hywel Williams

Croydon Central Gavin Barwell

Worcester Robin Walker

Keighley Kris Hopkins

Wirral West Esther McVey

Cannock Chase Aidan Burley

Loughborough Nicky Morgan

Harrow East Bob Blackman

Warwick and Leamington Chris White

Birmingham Yardley John Hemming

Swindon South Robert Buckland

Ealing Central and Acton Angie Bray

Pendle Andrew Stephenson

Stevenage Stephen McPartland

Elmet and Rothwell Alec Shelbrooke

Edinburgh West Michael Crockart

Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Simon Hart

Vale of Glamorgan Alun Cairns

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards

Norwich North Chloe Smith

High Peak Andrew Bingham

Milton Keynes South Iain Stewart

68 seats Labour needs to win

Canvassing

What is it for?

Reacting to events

So what is likely to happen in this election?

Source IPSOS Mori

Source: IPSOS Mori

Source: IPSOS Mori

QUESTIONS?