wfm 6311: climate risk management © dr. akm saiful islamdr. akm saiful islam wfm 6311: climate...
Post on 19-Dec-2015
233 views
TRANSCRIPT
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Change Risk Management
Akm Saiful Islam
Lecture-1: Module-1 &2 Climate System, Global Warming,
Green House gases
December, 2009
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Module-1
Climate System and Hydrologic cycleAtmosphereCryosphere: Sea, Ice sheet, GlacierHydrosphere: River, Lakes, ocean interactionsHydrologic CycleBiosphere and Ecosystem
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Module-2
Climate variability and climate change. Global warming and green house gases Historic aspects of global climate change Climate change in South Asian context: Case
study
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Climate Systems
• The complicated system consisting of various components, including the dynamics and composition of the atmosphere, the ocean, the ice and snow cover, the land surface and its features, the many mutual interactions between them, and the large variety of physical, chemical and biological processes taking place in and among these components.
• Climate refers to the state of the climate system as a whole, including a statistical description of its variations.
Atmosphere 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. Carbon dioxide accounts for just 0.03 - 0.04%. Water vapor 0 to 2%
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Components of Climate System
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house gases CO2 and some other minor gases
1. Absorb some of the thermal radiation leaving the surface of the earth.
2. Emit radiation from much higher and colder levels out to space.
These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases. They act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the
surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house effect
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house effect
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Green house gas effect
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Human induced climate variation Perturbations of the atmospheric composition – the
enhanced greenhouse effect Effect of aerosols:
direct effect (scattering of incoming solar radiation) indirect effect (affecting the radiative properties of
clouds)
Land-use change (agriculture, deforestation, reforestation, afforestation, urbanisation, traffic, …)
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Increasing trends of CO2
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Human induced changes of green house gases
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful IslamGlobal temperature and Greenhouse gases
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Temperature variation past 1,000 years
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Increase of Temperature past 140 year
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Trends of increase of Temperature
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Ice melting Images gathered from the Defense
Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).
1979 2003
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Cracks in Ice bars
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Predicted changes of Temperature
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Trends of Precipitations
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Trends of Seal Surface temperature
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Sea Level Rise
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Emission of Green house gases Emission of Co2 Bangladesh < 0.2 ton/yr
WFM 6311: Climate Risk Management © Dr. Akm Saiful Islam
Per capita responsibility of Co2