western treasure valley economic breakfast economic ... · labor force participation rate among...

Western Treasure Valley Economic Breakfast

Economic OverviewMarch 17, 2016

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing

States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013

U.S. Rate = 0.7%

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

National Economic Conditions



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

A period of increasing interest rates?...

It’s up to the Fed

National Job Growth Improving

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

8.7 Million Jobs Lost

13 Million

Jobs Recovered

Pa

yro

ll C

ha

ng

e 0

00

’s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Monthly Change in Employment by IndustryTotal Change in Number of Jobs by Industry: Jan 2016 to Feb 2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

Industry Sector Monthly Jobs Added/Lost

Natural Resources/Mining -18,000

Construction 19,000

Manufacturing -16,000

Trade, Transportation, Utilities 53,000

Information 12,000

Financial Activity 6,000

Professional & Business 23,000

Education & Health Services 86,000

Leisure & Hospitality 48,000

Other Services 17,000

Government 12,000

TOTAL 242,000

National Employment Change


Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Feb 2015 to Feb 2016

0.3%

1.2%

3.0%

3.2%

3.1%

1.8%

1.5%

1.8%

0.1%

4.0%

-16.1%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 1.9%

National Employment ChangeTotal Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Feb 2015 to Feb 2016

75

66

446

698

610

142

41

470

12

253

-141

-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining


U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

4.9% in Feb

U.S. Wage Growth Steady

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2007-2015

Average

2.4%

Consumption Drives Growth

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

2012 2013 2014

Fixed Investment

Inventories

Net Exports

Government

Personal Consumption

Co

ntr

ibu

tio

n t

o G

DP

Gro

wth

2015

Total GDP Growth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4Q GDP 1.0%

Consumer Confidence Only Slightly Higher than One Year Ago

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Ap

r 2

01

2

Ju

l 2

012

Oct

20

12

Jan

201

3

Ap

r 2

01

3

Ju

l 2

013

Oct

20

13

Jan

201

4

Ap

r 2

01

4

Ju

l 2

014

Oct

20

14

Jan

201

5

Ap

r 2

01

5

Ju

l 2

015

Oct

20

15

Jan

201

6

Above 110 indicates economic prosperity

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board


Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Pe

rce

nt

Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change

Underemployment Remains Stubbornly High


2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment)

Labor Force Participation Rate Among Lowest in Over 35 Years

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Seasonally adjusted

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

Mar 2000

67.3%

Feb 1978

62.8%

Feb 2016

62.9%

%

Producer Price Index

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.02

01

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Year-to-Year Change

Pe

rce

nt

CPI Inflation Increasing


-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Au

g 2

01

1

No

v 2

01

1

Fe

b 2

012

Ma

y 2

012

Au

g 2

01

2

No

v 2

01

2

Fe

b 2

013

Ma

y 2

013

Au

g 2

01

3

No

v 2

01

3

Fe

b 2

014

Ma

y 2

014

Au

g 2

01

4

No

v 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

015

Ma

y 2

015

Au

g 2

01

5

No

v 2

01

5

Fe

b 2

016

U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate

U.S. Core CPI vs Core PCE

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis; Core CPI and Core PCE represent all items less food and energy

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Pe

rce

nt

Yearly Change Rate

U.S. Core CPI U.S. Core PCE

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession

Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Euro compared to U.S. Dollar

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.6020

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

USD

PARITY

$1.39

Source: Investing.com

$1.05

US Dollar Compared to Chinese YuanInverted Scale

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

2010China allows

the yuanto rise

Aug 2015China

devalues the yuanby largest amount

in 20 years

2001China joins WTO 2005

China allows

the yuanto rise

2008China

stops the yuan’s

rise

The World’s Devaluing Currencies Compared to the USD

November 2014-November 2015

Source: CNNMoney’s reporting of data from Factset

Note: 12-month change ending November 10, 2015

Sources: Pre-2016 data from U.S. Energy Information Administration; Post-2016 from Investing.com

$ P

er

Barr

el

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

Sep

-13

Oct-

13

No

v-1

3

Dec-1

3

Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4

Ma

r-14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ap

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-16

$26

$108

Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; weekly averages

Oil Prices Hit Lowest Point in Over a Decade

$ P

er

Barr

el

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.002

00

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

$108

$26

Source: Baker Hughes

Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs

Total U.S. Rig Count Down Significantly

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,2002

00

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

1,931

480

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Effective Fed Rate

12-month change in PCE price index

Unemployment Rate (right axis)

Fed Fund Rate, Inflation, and Unemployment

Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures

First Fed rate increase since

2006

2015

Federal Funds Rate Forecast(December 2015)

Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve

2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

Pe

rce

nt

2017 2018

2016

Federal Funds Rate Forecast(March 2016)

Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve

2017

0

1

2

3

4

5

Pe

rce

nt

2018 2019



U.S. Rate = 0.7%


Population Loss

NM

0.1%

UT

1.6%

AZ

1.2%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.3%

OR

0.8%

TX

1.5%

OK

0.9%

CO

1.5%

WA

1.1%

ID

1.0%

MT

1.0%

WY

1.0%

ND

3.1%

SD

1.3%

MN

0.8%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.3%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.3%

IL

0.1%IN

0.5%

OH

0.2%

FL

1.2%

TN 0.6%

KY 0.4%

MS

0.2%AL

0.3%

GA

0.8%

SC

1.1%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.9%

WV

-0.1%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.4%

ME

-0.01%

AK

0.7%

HI

1.0%

MA

0.7%

VT

0.1%

NH

0.1%

RI

0.1%

CT

0.1%

NJ

0.4%

DE

0.9%

MD

0.7%

MI

0.1%

.075% to 1.10%

0.5% to 0.9%

DC

2.1%

1.15% or more

0% to 0.4%

KS

0.3%

Local Economic Conditions

Idaho Population Growth 11th Fastest in U.S.

Percent Change: 2014 to 2015U.S. Rate = 0.8%


Population Loss

0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate)

0.3% to 0.7%

1.5% or more

0.0% to 0.2%

NM

0.0%

UT

1.7%

AZ

1.5%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.9%

OR

1.5%

TX

1.8%

OK

0.8%

CO

1.9%

WA

1.5%

ID

1.2%

MT

0.9%

WY

0.3%

ND

2.3%

SD

0.6%

MN

0.6%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.4%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.2%

IL

-0.2%IN

0.3%

OH

0.1%

FL

1.8%

TN 0.8%

KY 0.3%

MS

0.0%AL

0.3%

GA

1.2%

SC

1.4%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.7%

WV

-0.3%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.2%

ME

-0.1%

AK

0.2%

HI

0.8%

MA

0.6%

VT

-0.1%

NH

0.2%

RI

0.1%

CT

-0.1%

NJ

0.2%

DE

1.1%

MD

0.5%

MI

0.1%

DC

1.9%

KS

0.3%

Oregon Population Growth9th in the Nation

Percent Change: 2014 to 2015U.S. Rate = 0.8%


Population Loss

0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate)

0.3% to 0.7%

1.5% or more

0.0% to 0.2%

NM

0.0%

UT

1.7%

AZ

1.5%

CA

0.9%

NV

1.9%

OR

1.5%

TX

1.8%

OK

0.8%

CO

1.9%

WA

1.5%

ID

1.2%

MT

0.9%

WY

0.3%

ND

2.3%

SD

0.6%

MN

0.6%

NE

0.7%

KS

0.3%

IA

0.5%

MO

0.3%

AR

0.4%

LA

0.5%

WI

0.2%

IL

-0.2%IN

0.3%

OH

0.1%

FL

1.8%

TN 0.8%

KY 0.3%

MS

0.0%AL

0.3%

GA

1.2%

SC

1.4%

NC 1.0%

VA

0.7%

WV

-0.3%

PA

0.1%

NY

0.2%

ME

-0.1%

AK

0.2%

HI

0.8%

MA

0.6%

VT

-0.1%

NH

0.2%

RI

0.1%

CT

-0.1%

NJ

0.2%

DE

1.1%

MD

0.5%

MI

0.1%

DC

1.9%

KS

0.3%

Idaho PopulationGrowth Rates

By County2013 to 2014

State Average = 1.3%

Increase of 0.4% to 0.8%


Increase of 1.4% or Greater


Population Loss

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Jerome

0.9%

Jefferson

0.6%

Idaho

0.1%

Gooding

-0.2%

Gem

1.0%

Fremont

-0.3%

Franklin

1.3%

Elmore

-0.2%

Custer

-2.2%

Clearwater

-0.5%

Washington

0.7% Clark

0.7%

Valley

2.5%

Cassia

0.8%

Twin Falls

1.3%

Caribou

0.1%

Teton

0.4%Canyon

2.1%

Shoshone

-2.3%

Camas

0.0%

Power

-1.0%

Butte

-0.2%

Payette

1.1%

Boundary

1.0%

Owyhee

-0.6%

Bonneville

1.0%

Bonner

2.2%

Nez Perce

0.2%

Boise

1.2%

Minidoka

0.1%

Blaine

0.8%

Madison

1.2%

Bingham

-0.3%Lincoln

0.2%

Benewah

0.8%

Lewis

0.3%

Bear Lake

0.3%

Lemhi

0.0%

Bannock

0.0%

Latah

0.5%

Adams

0.8%

Kootenai

2.1%

Ada

2.3%

Oneida

-2.0%

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,0001

98

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population

10,925

9,097

1,654,930

Idaho Population and Components of Change

Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

To

tal

Po

pu

lati

on

Co

mp

on

en

ts o

f Po

pu

latio

n C

ha

ng

e

Percent Change in Employment for States: Jan 2015 to Jan 2016U.S. Rate = 1.9%

Note: Seasonally Adjusted


NM

0.2%

UT

3.0%

AZ

2.9%

CA

2.8%

NV

2.7%

OR

3.4%

TX

1.6%

OK

-0.6%

CO

2.7%

WA

3.0%

ID

3.9%

MT

0.9%

WY

-3.0%

ND

-4.5%

SD

1.1%

MN

1.1%

NE

1.5%

KS

0.1%

IA

1.5%

MO

0.5%

AR

1.9%

LA

-0.8%

WI

0.9%

IL

0.8%IN

1.5%

OH

1.5%

FL

3.3%

TN 3.4%

KY1.4%

MS

1.3%

AL

0.8%

GA

2.8%

SC

2.2%

NC 2.5%

VA

2.3%

WV

-1.6%

PA

0.6%

NY

1.3%

ME

0.8%

AK

-0.5%

HI

1.8%

MA

1.4%

VT

1.2%

NH

1.2%

RI

0.7%

CT

0.6%

NJ

1.8%

DE

2.8%

MD

1.7%

MI

2.1%

DC

1.3%

Loss

1.9% to 2.7%

2.8% or more (above the U.S. rate)

1.0% to 1.5%

0.0% to 0.9%

Idaho Employment GrowthHighest in the Nation

Percent Change in Employment for States: Jan 2015 to Jan 2016U.S. Rate = 1.9%



NM

0.2%

UT

3.0%

AZ

2.9%

CA

2.8%

NV

2.7%

OR

3.4%

TX

1.6%

OK

-0.6%

CO

2.7%

WA

3.0%

ID

3.9%

MT

0.9%

WY

-3.0%

ND

-4.5%

SD

1.1%

MN

1.1%

NE

1.5%

KS

0.1%

IA

1.5%

MO

0.5%

AR

1.9%

LA

-0.8%

WI

0.9%

IL

0.8%IN

1.5%

OH

1.5%

FL

3.3%

TN 3.4%

KY1.4%

MS

1.3%

AL

0.8%

GA

2.8%

SC

2.2%

NC 2.5%

VA

2.3%

WV

-1.6%

PA

0.6%

NY

1.3%

ME

0.8%

AK

-0.5%

HI

1.8%

MA

1.4%

VT

1.2%

NH

1.2%

RI

0.7%

CT

0.6%

NJ

1.8%

DE

2.8%

MD

1.7%

MI

2.1%

DC

1.3%

Loss

1.9% to 2.7%

2.8% or more (above the U.S. rate)

1.0% to 1.5%

0.0% to 0.9%

Oregon Employment Growth2nd Highest in Nation

Idaho Employment at New Highs

400

500

600

700

8001

99

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Th

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es

Total Nonfarm Employment

Loss of 59,000 jobs from

2007 - 2010

Gain of 92,000 jobs since low

in 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted

Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

Oregon Employment at New Highs

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

19001

99

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Th

ou

sa

nd

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2008 - 2010

Gain of 223,000 jobs since low

in 2010



Idaho Employment Gains and Losses

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016

Total: 3.9%

2.5%

4.3%

7.3%

5.5%

3.3%

3.9%

-1.1%

3.5%

3.1%

5.1%

-7.9%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Idaho Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016

Total: 26,200

3,000

1,000

4,900

5,200

2,700

1,300

-100

4,700

1,900

1,900

-300

-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Oregon Employment Gains and Losses

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016

Total: 3.4%

2.1%

3.5%

4.6%

4.6%

4.9%

3.3%

7.8%

1.3%

3.2%

5.0%

0.0%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Oregon Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Jan 2015 – Jan 2016

Total: 59,600

6,200

2,100

8,700

11,700

11,000

3,100

2,500

4,200

5,900

4,100

0

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Idaho EmploymentChange Rates

By CountyDec 2014 toDec 2015

State Rate = 4.4%

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Employment

2.0% to 4.3%

0.0% to 1.9%

10.0% or more

4.4% to 9.9%

Loss

Jefferson

9.9%

Jerome

12.3%

Idaho

-7.1%

Gooding

-7.4%

Gem

13.6%

Fremont

26.2%

Franklin

10.4%

Elmore

4.2%

Custer

-7.6%

Clearwater

1.4%

Washington

-2.6% Clark

-15.1%

Valley

6.5%

Cassia

1.2%

Twin Falls

4.2%

Caribou

-1.9%

Teton

8.5%Canyon

7.0%

Shoshone

-12.8%

Camas

20.9%

Power

19.9%

Butte

7.4%

Payette

9.0%

Boundary

15.1%

Owyhee

15.5%

Bonneville

3.7%

Bonner

-1.3%

Nez Perce

14.5%

Boise

-1.8%

Minidoka

4.9%

Blaine

-2.6%

Madison

20.9%

Bingham

-2.0%Lincoln

8.0%

Benewah

5.5%

Lewis

-5.0%

Bear Lake

-13.5%

Lemhi

0.4%

Bannock

22.0%

Latah

10.5%

Adams

-3.3%

Kootenai

5.5%

Ada

7.5%

Oneida

-8.9%

Wyoming Employment Still Not Fully Recovered from Recession Loss

200

220

240

260

280

300

3201

99

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

Th

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2008-2009

Gain of 7,000 jobs from low

in 2009



WY Industries - Employment GainsPercent Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: January 2015 to January 2016



1.3%

-2.9%

-3.6%

2.6%

-1.6%

-3.5%

-2.6%

-1.6%

-3.0%

-5.1%

-20.2%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

Total: -3.0%

WY Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: January 2015 to January 2016

Total: -8,700



900

-300

-1,300

700

-300

-400

-100

-900

-300

-1,200

-5,500

-6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000

Government

Other Services


Ed. & Health Serv.

Prof. & Bus. Serv.

Financial Activity

Information


Manufacturing

Construction

Ntl. Res. & Mining

WyomingEmploymentChange Rates

By CountyJanuary 2015 toJanuary 2016

State Rate = -2.8%

1.0% to 1.9%

0.0 to 0.9%

3.0% or more

Source: Wyoming Department of Workforce Services

Note: Not seasonally adjusted

2.0% to 2.9%

Loss

Teton0.7%

Park0.1%

Hot Springs-3.1%

Fremont-3.0%

Sublette-8.1%

Lincoln-0.4%

Uinta-7.4%

Sweetwater-5.8%

Big Horn-2.4%

Sheridan-0.8%

Campbell-6.8%

Crook-2.6%

Washakie-1.2%

Johnson-5.1% Weston

-2.3%

Niobrara-4.3%

Converse-3.6%Natrona

-7.8%

Carbon5.8% Albany

3.7%

Platte1.5%

Goshen0.2%

Laramie-0.7%

Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment Rates in the Country

January 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% NH

2.9%

NM

6.5%

UT

3.4%

AZ

5.6%

CA

5.7%

NV

6.2%

OR

5.1%

TX

4.5%

OK

4.1%

CO

3.2%

WA

5.8%

ID

3.9%

MT

4.1%

WY

4.7%

ND

2.8%

SD

2.8%

MN

3.7%

NE

3.0%

KS

4.0%

IA

3.5%

MO

4.3%

AR

4.4%

LA

5.9%

WI

4.6%

IL

6.3%IN

4.6%

OH

4.9%

FL

5.0%

TN 5.4%

KY5.8%

MS

6.7%AL

6.2%

GA

5.4%

SC

5.5%

NC 5.6%

VA

4.1%

WV

6.3%

PA

4.6%

NY

4.9%

ME

3.8%

AK

6.6%

HI

3.2%

MA

4.7%

VT

3.4%

RI

5.3%

CT

5.5%

NJ

4.5%

DE

4.7%

MD

4.9%

MI

4.9%

DC

6.5%

6.0% or more

4.0% to 4.7%

4.9% to 5.5% (at or above the U.S. rate)

3.9% or less

5.6% to 5.9%



Oregon Unemployment Slightly Higher than Nation

January 2016 U.S. Rate = 4.9% NH

2.9%

NM

6.5%

UT

3.4%

AZ

5.6%

CA

5.7%

NV

6.2%

OR

5.1%

TX

4.5%

OK

4.1%

CO

3.2%

WA

5.8%

ID

3.9%

MT

4.1%

WY

4.7%

ND

2.8%

SD

2.8%

MN

3.7%

NE

3.0%

KS

4.0%

IA

3.5%

MO

4.3%

AR

4.4%

LA

5.9%

WI

4.6%

IL

6.3%IN

4.6%

OH

4.9%

FL

5.0%

TN 5.4%

KY5.8%

MS

6.7%AL

6.2%

GA

5.4%

SC

5.5%

NC 5.6%

VA

4.1%

WV

6.3%

PA

4.6%

NY

4.9%

ME

3.8%

AK

6.6%

HI

3.2%

MA

4.7%

VT

3.4%

RI

5.3%

CT

5.5%

NJ

4.5%

DE

4.7%

MD

4.9%

MI

4.9%

DC

6.5%

6.0% or more

4.0% to 4.7%


3.9% or less

5.6% to 5.9%



Idaho vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

U.S. Idaho

Oregon vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

U.S. Oregon

Idaho Unemployment

RatesBy County

December 2015

State Rate = 3.9%

4.0% to 4.9%

5.0% to 5.9%

3.4% or lower

3.5% to 3.9%

6.0% or greater

Source: Idaho Department of Labor

Jerome

3.3%

Jefferson

3.1%

Idaho

5.2%

Gooding

3.2%

Gem

4.7%

Fremont

3.7%

Franklin

4.4%

Elmore

4.5%

Custer

5.4%

Clearwater

8.4%

Washington

5.4% Clark

4.0%

Valley

5.7%

Cassia

3.4%

Twin Falls

3.5%

Caribou

5.4%

Teton

3.4%Canyon

4.7%

Shoshone

8.5%

Camas

4.8%

Power

3.9%

Butte

4.9%

Payette

4.9%

Boundary

6.0%

Owyhee

5.0%

Bonneville

3.2%

Bonner

5.9%

Nez Perce

3.3%

Boise

5.9%

Minidoka

3.4%

Blaine

3.3%

Madison

2.6%

Bingham

4.0%Lincoln

5.1%

Benewah

6.8%

Lewis

6.4%

Bear Lake

5.8%

Lemhi

5.9%

Bannock

3.6%

Latah

3.6%

Adams

7.8%

Kootenai

4.8%

Ada

3.2%

Oneida

4.2%

Idaho Personal Income Growth Slightly Lower than Nation


Percent Change in Personal Income : Q3 2014 – Q3 2015U.S. = 4.6%; ID = 4.2% NH

4.9%

NM

3.3%

UT

6.3%

AZ

5.2%

CA

6.5%

NV

5.9%

OR

5.7%

TX

3.9%

OK

2.0%

CO

5.3%

WA

5.9%

ID

4.2%

MT

4.6%

WY

1.4%

ND

-2.4%

SD

1.4%

MN

3.7%

NE

2.8%

KS

3.6%

IA

1.3%

MO

3.6%

AR

4.5%

LA

2.6%

WI

3.7%

IL

4.0%IN

4.6%

OH

3.5%

FL

5.4%

TN 4.9%

KY5.0%

MS

3.3%AL

3.9%

GA

5.2%

SC

5.1%

NC 5.3%

VA

4.6%

WV

2.3%

PA

3.6%

NY

4.6%

ME

3.9%

AK

4.7%

HI

4.8%

MA

5.2%

VT

3.0%

RI

4.6%

CT

4.1%

NJ

4.4%

DE

4.5%

MD

4.4%

MI

4.6%

DC

4.8%


3.0% to 4.5%

5.0% or more

0.0% to 2.9%

Decrease

Oregon Personal Income Growth 5th Highest in Nation


Percent Change in Personal Income : Q3 2014 – Q3 2015U.S. = 4.6%; WY = 1.4% NH

4.9%

NM

3.3%

UT

6.3%

AZ

5.2%

CA

6.5%

NV

5.9%

OR

5.7%

TX

3.9%

OK

2.0%

CO

5.3%

WA

5.9%

ID

4.2%

MT

4.6%

WY

1.4%

ND

-2.4%

SD

1.4%

MN

3.7%

NE

2.8%

KS

3.6%

IA

1.3%

MO

3.6%

AR

4.5%

LA

2.6%

WI

3.7%

IL

4.0%IN

4.6%

OH

3.5%

FL

5.4%

TN 4.9%

KY5.0%

MS

3.3%AL

3.9%

GA

5.2%

SC

5.1%

NC 5.3%

VA

4.6%

WV

2.3%

PA

3.6%

NY

4.6%

ME

3.9%

AK

4.7%

HI

4.8%

MA

5.2%

VT

3.0%

RI

4.6%

CT

4.1%

NJ

4.4%

DE

4.5%

MD

4.4%

MI

4.6%

DC

4.8%


3.0% to 4.5%

5.0% or more

0.0% to 2.9%

Decrease

Idaho Median Household Income Slightly Below National Rate

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey

2014 U.S. Rate = $53,657, 2014 Idaho Rate = $53,438

NM

$46,686

UT

$63,383

AZ

$49,254

CA

$60,487

NV

$49,875

OR

$58,875

TX

$53,875

OK

$47,199

CO

$60,940

WA

$59,068

ID

$53,438

MT

$51,102

WY

$55,690

ND

$60,730

SD

$53,053

MN

$67,244

NE

$56,870

KS

$53,444

IA

$57,810

MO

$56,630

AR

$44,922

LA

$42,406

WI

$58,080

IL

$54,916IN

$48,060

OH

$49,644

FL

$46,140

TN

$43,716

KY$42,786

MS

$35,521AL

$42,278

GA

$49,555

SC

$44,929

NC

$46,784

VA

$66,155

WV

$39,552

PA

$55,173

NY

$54,310

AK

$67,629

HI

$71,223

MA

$63,151VT

$60,708

NH

$73,397

RI

$58,633CT

$70,161

NJ

$65,243DE

$57,522

MD

$76,165

MI

$52,005

DC

$68,277

$53,658 to $59,999

$50,000 to $53,657 (at or below the U.S. Rate)

$60,000 or more

$40,000 to $49,999

$39,999 or less

ME

$51,710

Oregon Median Household Income Higher than National Rate

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Current Population Survey

2014 U.S. Rate = $53,657, 2014 Oregon Rate = $58,875

NM

$46,686

UT

$63,383

AZ

$49,254

CA

$60,487

NV

$49,875

OR

$58,875

TX

$53,875

OK

$47,199

CO

$60,940

WA

$59,068

ID

$53,438

MT

$51,102

WY

$55,690

ND

$60,730

SD

$53,053

MN

$67,244

NE

$56,870

KS

$53,444

IA

$57,810

MO

$56,630

AR

$44,922

LA

$42,406

WI

$58,080

IL

$54,916IN

$48,060

OH

$49,644

FL

$46,140

TN

$43,716

KY$42,786

MS

$35,521AL

$42,278

GA

$49,555

SC

$44,929

NC

$46,784

VA

$66,155

WV

$39,552

PA

$55,173

NY

$54,310

AK

$67,629

HI

$71,223

MA

$63,151VT

$60,708

NH

$73,397

RI

$58,633CT

$70,161

NJ

$65,243DE

$57,522

MD

$76,165

MI

$52,005

DC

$68,277

$53,658 to $59,999

$50,000 to $53,657 (at or below the U.S. Rate)

$60,000 or more

$40,000 to $49,999

$39,999 or less

ME

$51,710

Consumer Price Index Wasatch Front vs. United States

Year Over Year Change

Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Au

g 2

01

1

Dec

20

11

Ap

r 2

01

2

Au

g 2

01

2

Dec

20

12

Ap

r 2

01

3

Au

g 2

01

3

Dec

20

13

Ap

r 2

01

4

Au

g 2

01

4

Dec

20

14

Ap

r 2

01

5

Au

g 2

01

5

Dec

20

15

United States CPI

Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI

US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

Ap

r 2

01

2

Ju

l 2

012

Oct

20

12

Jan

201

3

Ap

r 2

01

3

Ju

l 2

013

Oct

20

13

Jan

201

4

Ap

r 2

01

4

Ju

l 2

014

Oct

20

14

Jan

201

5

Ap

r 2

01

5

Ju

l 2

015

Oct

20

15

Jan

201

6

Zions Bank Utah Consumer

Attitude Index

United States Consumer

Confidence Index

Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

Above 110 indicates economic prosperity

Idaho Poverty Rate Lower than National Average

2014 U.S. Rate = 14.8%, 2014 Idaho Rate = 12.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

NM

20.0%

UT

10.2%

AZ

21.2%

CA

15.8%

NV

17.0%

OR

14.4%

TX

16.4%

OK

17.3%

CO

12.3%

WA

12.0%

ID

12.4%

MT

12.0%

WY

9.7%

ND

9.7%

SD

12.8%

MN

8.3%

NE

11.8%

KS

12.1%

IA

10.3%

MO

10.4%

AR

18.4%

LA

23.1%

WI

10.9%

IL

13.7%IN

14.6%

OH

15.6%

FL

16.7%

TN 18.2%

KY20.0%

MS

22.1%

AL

17.8%

GA

16.8%

SC

16.5%

NC 17.1%

VA

10.2%

WV

17.3%

PA

12.5%

NY

14.0%

ME

13.5%

AK

11.9%

HI

10.8%

MA

14.6%

VT

9.3%

NH

7.2%

RI

1.3%

CT

8.6%

NJ

11.3%

DE

11.0%

MD

9.8%

MI

14.8%

DC

19.0%

10.6% to 12.0%

12.1% to 14.4%

10.5% or less


18.1% or more

Oregon Poverty Rate Slightly Lower than Nation

2014 U.S. Rate = 14.8%, 2014 Oregon Rate = 14.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 CPS data

NM

20.0%

UT

10.2%

AZ

21.2%

CA

15.8%

NV

17.0%

OR

14.4%

TX

16.4%

OK

17.3%

CO

12.3%

WA

12.0%

ID

12.4%

MT

12.0%

WY

9.7%

ND

9.7%

SD

12.8%

MN

8.3%

NE

11.8%

KS

12.1%

IA

10.3%

MO

10.4%

AR

18.4%

LA

23.1%

WI

10.9%

IL

13.7%IN

14.6%

OH

15.6%

FL

16.7%

TN 18.2%

KY20.0%

MS

22.1%

AL

17.8%

GA

16.8%

SC

16.5%

NC 17.1%

VA

10.2%

WV

17.3%

PA

12.5%

NY

14.0%

ME

13.5%

AK

11.9%

HI

10.8%

MA

14.6%

VT

9.3%

NH

7.2%

RI

1.3%

CT

8.6%

NJ

11.3%

DE

11.0%

MD

9.8%

MI

14.8%

DC

19.0%

10.6% to 12.0%

12.1% to 14.4%

10.5% or less


18.1% or more

Malheur County Economic Conditions

Sources: U.S Census Bureau and Oregon Employment Department Qualityinfo.org

• 2014 Population: 30,359

• 2010-2014 Household Size: 2.64

• Jan 2016 Unemployment Rate: 5.7%(Rank: 17 of 37)

• Jan 2016 Total Employment: 11,582(Year-Over-Year Growth: 3.0%)

• 2010-2014 Median Household Income: $34,380

Idaho Economic Indicators2015 - 2017

Source: Moody’s Analytics e = estimate f = forecast

4.3

3

8.2

3.8

2.3

1.2

5.4

3.5

7.3

3.8

2.0

1.3

3.8

6.1

3.8

4

3.1

1.4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Gross State Product

Home Prices

Personal Income

Unemployment Rate

Nonfarm Employment

Population

2015e 2016f 2017f

Robert Spendlove

Economic and Public Policy Officer

Email:

[email protected]

Phone: 801-560-5394

Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC.

Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with

third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.

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