West Gate Market PlazaFNCE 3334

Professor Clapp

4 student team

Missing from This Example

• Preliminary Market Defining Story– This is your thesis based on Steps 1-3– You have now answered 4 of the 5 questions

posed by Ling-Archer, so you should have a preliminary story.

Demand Analysis and Forecasting

“Often area analysis is based on the premise that general population and employment growth in the region will automatically result in growth in the submarket for the subject property. This premise is not logical because the effect does not necessarily follow the cause.“-Stephen Fanning

Haverhill by the numbers

• Haverhill’s unemployment rate is 8.9%

• 1.75% population growth rate

• Recent job growth is Negative. Haverhill jobs have Decreased by 4.56 percent.

Haverhill Continued

• As of 2010, Haverhill's population is 59,987 people.– Male 47.46% – Female 52.54%– Median age 35.5

Benchmarking

• Massachusetts unemployment rate is 8%

• The National unemployment rate is 9.5%

• Massachusetts ranks number one in US in job growth at 2%

Massachusetts GDP

Conclusions

• Haverhill inverse of Massachusetts and US economically at this time

• Overall struggle for the people of this area

Ratios Per Capita

• Show Total Retail Sales and Total Populations using Census and Costar Data

• Divide numbers to determine Retail Sales Per Capita• Combining Census data with Costar, room for error

Ratios Per Household• Find Total Retail Sales and Total Households• Divide to find Avg. Retail Sales per Household• Compare Census and Costar Data, large differences=error in data

Surplus?

• Data (using Retail per Household) shows surplus

• Difficult to believe considering circumstances of the SS

• Possible error in Costar data as well as inefficient Census information

Haverhill Income Range• According to Costar, Essex counties median household income as of 2008 is $65,183• The State of Massachusetts median household income is $65,304•As you can see, Westgate Plaza is in a fairly middle income class area with a lot of households that have a stable disposable incomeHousehold Income: Westgate

Plaza

Radius: 1 mile 3 mile 5 mile

Average $72,311 $76,895 $76,505

Median $61,774 $65,196 $64,067

Per Capita $29,320 $30,368 $28,545

Household Values (5 mile from Walmart Plaza)

Breakdown of Households• There are about nine different apartment building complexes within 5 minutes of our S.S.• Rent ranges anywhere from $900-$1600• 46.5% are family renter occupied housing units and 21.7% are married-couple renter

occupied housing units• Of the 46.5% family households, 28.9% have children under 18 years old• This younger population may look to our S.S. for the anchor stores that we offer

(Marshalls, Oriental Garden, and the Movie Theater)

Land Use Linkages• There are many colleges in the Essex County Area• The largest is Northern Essex Community• Located in Haverhill about 10 min from S.S.• 7,439 undergraduate students are enrolled

More Local Demand

• Some local hospitals around Haverhill: Whittier Rehabilitation Hospital and Merrimack Valley

• Health Services within five miles from the S.S. provide the third most businesses out of any other business sector

• Within a 3 mile radius its second for number of employees with 2,157 and first within 5 miles with 8,320 employees

Public Transportation: Positive for Demand?

Subject Site

Bus Routes

Consumer Demand: By Category

Westgate Market PlazaTenantsMarket BasketMarshallsPayless ShoeSovereign BankSherwin WilliamsWeight WatchersShamrock LiquorsWestgate CleanersTed & Art Hair StylistsOriental Garden

What Other Factors Would Influence Demand?

Improvements To Subject Site

Back

Front

View of Current Landscaping

View of Signage

Front Rear

Improvement to Signage

Rear IngressMain Ingress

Bringing in New Tenants

Sources• Google Maps• www.Collegeboard.com• Costar• www.Census.gov• www.gasbuddy.com• http://rmd-inc.net• http://www.mvrta.com/