Welcome!

SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting WorkshopNOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Salt Lake City, UT – March 21-22, 2011

Organized by Sponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board USBR NIDIS

Where are we now? 15 years of applied climate and flow forecasting research pertaining to western US

Variable use of findings within operational water prediction and management One of the biggest usage gaps: the upper Colorado River Basin Motivation: Increasing scrutiny of Colorado River water management

1970 1980 1990 2000

ESP first used at California-Nevada River Forecast Center

NWS/HRL begins ESP development

ESP first presented at the Western Snow Conference

ESP used for drought assessment

ESP used for water supply forecasts

ESP released with NWSRFS

ESP Analysis and Display Program (ESPADP) development started

ESPADP deployed to the field

Water Resources Forecasting Services (WARFS) quantifies

value of ESP

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast pre-adjustment developed for use in ESP

No lack of capacity, interest, or wille.g., NWS ESP

Medium to long-range ESP short-medium-long range ESP

Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) work begins

Western Snow Conference paper, 1977

Work to incorporate climate forecasts

Where are we going? *Goals

Development and Researcher to Operations Discussion of State of Practice versus State of Science Education of External Researchers and Partners Education of Internal Researchers and Forecasters Design and Establishment of Testbed for Evaluation and Intercomparison Next Steps toward Operational Advances

Stakeholder Interaction Disc…

*…and how can we get out of this hand-basket? (from Pulwarty)

AgendaToday (Monday)- Introductions- Current and future USBR and CBRFC practices- Ongoing research efforts on seasonal / 2 year prediction in

the Colorado Basin

Tomorrow (Tuesday)- Continue discussion on ongoing research efforts- Forecast testbed design and supporting datasets- Discussion: where do we go next?

Ample time built in for discussion through-out agendaInteraction with researchers and forecasters important

LogisticsLunches: - Today: catered in; use sign up sheets and pay with cash- Tomorrow: same thing?

Dinner:- Group dinner tonight at Squatters Brew Pub (147 W 300 South)

Wireless passcode: NWS$lc-1nternet

Teleconference / gotomeeting:- Slides online here: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/present/2011/s1y2/agenda.htm- Room is bad for audio… when presenting please be near microphone

Office Orientation / tour:- Building is shared with Weather Forecast Office and River Forecast

Center; you’re welcome to interact with either staff

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Sponsors

And now a word from today’s sponsors..

CWCB

NIDIS

Thank-you!!

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