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ISSUE 20NFL Divisional Playoffs

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

It seems hard to believe, but another college football season is in the books, as Alabama was able to upend Georgia in overtime for a 17th national title. What a fantastic game it was to watch, and bettors were left hanging till the final seconds when the Tide managed to secure the victory with a 41-yard TD pass. For those of you that had Georgia +3.5 or +4, congratulations. For those of you that were on the Alabama side

against the number, or on the UNDER for that matter, we feel for you. Fortunately, there is still some football left to be played to get that ugly taste out of your mouth.

Speaking of people who had Georgia though, we would like to sign off our college football coverage by congratulating VI Jim & VI Matt on their sweep of the championship game. Both guys had Georgia as a Best Bet and OVER on the total as well. With those Best Bet wins, they were able to forge a 3-way tie with VI Jason for the season handicapping title. Each finished at 25-23 ATS in Best Bets. In fact, this is the first year in the history of our publication that all of our handicappers finished over-.500 in college Best Bets. The overall title goes to Jason though, as he wound up 13-games over-.500 on feature games for the season.

With college football now in the rear view mirror, the VIFW tackles the divisional round of the playoffs head on. We continue with our series of trend articles for each progressive round of the playoffs. By the way, thanks for all the compliments on last week’s article. This week’s Divisional Round Trends article is even more powerful however, so you definitely don’t want to miss it. We’ve again included the divisional playoff games log for you to develop your own angles as well.

Our staff picks were fantastic last week for the Wild Card round, as were our Power Ratings and Bettor’s Ratings. In fact, all of this led to a consensus record of 7-1 ATS! Hopefully that is the sign of things to come for rest of the playoffs. VI Jim continues to pace the Best Bet standings in the NFL but he was 0-3 last week and VI Matt was able to gain three games on him with a perfect 3-0 week himself.

We are just a few short weeks away from Super Bowl 52. Just a quick briefing on coverage for the rest of the year, we will cover the AFC & NFC Championship Games next week, then take a week off to prepare for issue #22, covering the big one. We hope you enjoy the continuing coverage and we thank you for your support and feedback. For even more daily updated betting materials, visit our web property, VegasInsider.com, the Global Leader in Sports Gaming Information.great start!

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule ......................................................................1NFL VI Picks ...................................................................................2NFL Observations .........................................................................3Recent NFL Divisional Playoff Trends .........................................4NFL Matchups ..............................................................................8Football Line Moves ..................................................................12

101 TENNESSEE 45 44.5P: 1:20PM C: 3:20PM E: 4:20PM ESPN

102 KANSAS CITY -7.5 -9103 ATLANTA 49.5 48.5

P: 5:15PM C: 7:15PM E: 8:15PM NBC104 LA RAMS -4 -6

105 BUFFALO 41 40P: 10:05AM C: 12:05PM E: 1:05PM CBS

106 JACKSONVILLE -7.5 -8107 CAROLINA 48 48.5

P: 1:40PM C: 3:40PM E: 4:40PM FOX108 NEW ORLEANS -5.5 -6.5

151 ALABAMA -4 -4.5P: 5:45PM C: 7:45PM E: 8:45PM ESPN

152 GEORGIA 47.5 45.5

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFSSATURDAY, JANUARY 6, 2018

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NAT'L CHAMPIONSHIPMONDAY, JANUARY 8, 2018

MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUM - ATLANTA, GA

SUNDAY, JANUARY 7, 2018

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


NFL VI PICKSVI Jim 85-86 (50%) 27-23 (54%)*

VI Jason 86-85 (50%)25-25 (50%)*

VI Doug 82-89 (48%)24-26 (48%)*

VIMatt88-83 (51%)28-24 (54%)*

Power Rating 97-74 (57%)

Effective Strength 83-88 (49%)

Bettors Ratings 97-74 (57%)

Consensus 88-83 (51%)

Saturday, January 13, 2018 - (301) ATLANTA at (302) PHILADELPHIA (+3)Philadelphia* Philadephia* Atlanta Atlanta* Philadelphia Atlanta Philadelphia Philadelphia

Saturday, January 13, 2018 - (301) ATLANTA at (302) PHILADELPHIA - TOTAL (41.5)UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER

Saturday, January 13, 2018 - (303) TENNESSEE at (304) NEW ENGLAND (-13)Tennessee* New

England*

Tennessee Tennessee* Tennessee New

England

Tennessee Tennessee

Saturday, January 13, 2018 - (303) TENNESSEE at (304) NEW ENGLAND - TOTAL (46.5)OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

Sunday, January 14, 2018 - (305) JACKSONVILLE at (306) PITTSBURGH (-7)Jacksonville* Pittsburgh Pittsburgh* Jacksonville* Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville Jacksonville

Sunday, January 14, 2018 - (305) JACKSONVILLE at (306) PITTSBURGH - TOTAL (41)OVER OVER UNDER* OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, January 14, 2018 - (307) NEW ORLEANS at (308) MINNESOTA (-4)New

Orleans

New

Orleans*

Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota New

Orleans

Minnesota

Sunday, January 14, 2018 - (307) NEW ORLEANS at (308) MINNESOTA - TOTAL (45)UNDER OVER OVER* UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

Jim says…There will be a lot made about Philadelphia being the first #1 seed to be saddled in the underdog role in the divisional round, and while I consider that a highly motivating factor, I wouldn’t simply bet the Eagles because of it. However, I would bet a home underdog that is better up front than its opponent, and in terms of play at the line of scrimmage, there weren’t many teams better than Philly this season. To listen to a lot of talking heads out there, they are making it seem as if this is a one-on-one battle between QB’s Matt Ryan & Nick Foles. Of course that would favor Ryan, he is the defending MVP and led his team to the Super Bowl last year. That said, it was LAST YEAR, and this Falcons’s offense isn’t the same as that one. In fact, I attribute last week’s win more to the Rams being overwhelmed by the circumstances than I do to the Falcons earning the victory. In their L6 games, the Falcons have scored just 19 PPG, and with the total having dropped like it did out of the gate, it is leading me to believe that most experts feel the Falcons won’t be real successful offensively on Saturday. There is also this system concerning the Falcons low point totals lately: Play against All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season. This system is 30-9 ATS over the last 10 seasons. I’m not ready to discount the Eagles just yet, I’ll take the 3-points against an Atlanta team that has underachieved.

Jason says…Road underdogs of +3.5 to +9.5 in the divisional round are on an 18-8-1 ATS run, and I attribute this a lot to the rhythm that home teams lose by being off for the wild card round. Ironically, when considering that exact same line range, the Saints are 20-8 ATS as underdogs under Sean Payton. New Orleans is a team that I’ve been pointing to since mid-season as one that I felt could be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in a few weeks. While they haven’t been as sharp lately as they were at other points this season, the Saints are still here and right where they need to be. They lost at Minnesota in Week 1 29-19, but boast a 12-3 ATS record under Payton when revenging a same season loss. In other words, Payton is great at making adjustments, as his teams have scored 25.2 PPG in those contests. He has all the tools offensively to get to the promised land, his team rushes for 124 yards per game and 4.4 yards per rush, and they gain 8 yards per pass attempt. I don’t believe Minnesota can match that big play potential, and with these games being played close to the vest, most often it is the big plays that separate the teams. Oh by the way, Payton also boasts a QB with championship pedigree. Don’t overlook the fact that Sunday road teams are 18-5-1 ATS since ’06 as well. That extra day of rest pays dividends for the visiting teams that won last weekend. I’m going with the Saints.

Doug says…Sometimes you can catch yourself, as any sports bettor does, overreacting to something that just happened. After watching Blake Bortles play like, well, Blake Bortles, it would be easy to say - He stinks - and want to go against Jacksonville in a big way. Yet in Bortles case, we have history. Other than a few periods of time this season, the former Central Florida product was again a pedestrian signal caller. There was a strong reason why Tom Coughlin and coach Doug Marrone built this team around defense and running game. This was Bortles third straight rough outing and having to play on the road at Pittsburgh, if is very difficult to imagine Jacksonville manufacturing many points. The Steelers on the other hand have a hot Ben Roethlisberger and the running game to take on Jaguars No. 21 run defense. Pittsburgh wins and covers 24-13.


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NFL OBSERVATIONSWe are down to the Elite 8 of the NFL. This week we will take a look at the Super Bowl odds for the remaining participants still in the field. The numbers will not surprise anyone and we will offer our opinion on what are the best bets.

Odds as of 1/8/2018Patriots +200Vikings +340Steelers +450Saints +600Falcons +750Eagles +1500Jaguars +2000Titans +8000

AFC Teams With a Chance

While an upset is always possible, to think that either New England or Pittsburgh would not be one of the AFC teams in the Land of 10,000 Frozen Lakes on Feb.4th is unreasonable. No question if Marcus Mariota and/or Blake Bortles have a career day, Tennessee or Jacksonville could make AFC championship. But unless they would face each other, it’s almost unimaginable to think the Titans or Jaguars could slay two giants in their conference.

New England is the safest bet as the favorite, however, they seem more vulnerable than in past Super Bowl appearances if they get there. The Patriots offense is less dynamic than previous editions at 28.6 points a game. This is not a large sample size, yet it is worth noting kicker Stephen Gostkowski tied his second-most field goals attempts (40) this season and was one-off for career-best for field goals made (37). The Patriots did not win a Super Bowl on those other occasions.

Pittsburgh knows winning in New England will be a task, but they will have no problem mustering more emotion after the Week 15 loss. If the Steelers can control Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, they are definite threats to win Super Bowl and are arguably the best value outside of top two.

NFC Teams With a ChanceIf you wrote down the names of the four remaining quarterbacks in the NFC, in order of preference to win three games, Case Keenum would be third and Nick Foles would be last. Though Minnesota and Philadelphia have identical records and both are home this weekend, Keenum has proven during the regular season that he can win games, Nick Foles, well, not so much. That is really the main reason the Vikings are the top pick out of the NFC and the Eagles are last.

Neither home team is guaranteed they will win one time, let alone three. For Philadelphia to win the Super Bowl, they will have to win three times, likely all as underdogs to engineer such an accomplishment.

If Atlanta were to win in Philly this week, the Vikings could be sleeping in their own beds every night since Dec. 24th thru the completion of this football season. This is a great setup for Minnesota.

Because Philadelphia and Minnesota are not electric offensive teams at this juncture, New Orleans and Atlanta have the quarterbacks that could be the difference-makers. Drew Brees is more than capable of putting his team on his shoulders if needed. The Saints defense gave up a lot of yards and points to Carolina, but they came up big in that contest when needed and could again versus the Vikings. Also, a Saints upset along an Atlanta victory, would take the NFC title tilt to bayou country.

The Falcons impressive dismantling of the L.A. Rams showcased their defense has arrived and they have playmakers. If Atlanta receives the same kind of defense this week and the next and Matt Ryan can discover some of the magic of 2016 for a short spell, imagine how the Dirty Birds would feel about playing for the Lombardi Trophy again.

As of now in the NFC, Minnesota is the safest best, Atlanta is the best long shot.

Order of Super Bowl Futures Bets: Minnesota, Pittsburgh, New England and Atlanta

http://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/bios.cfm/hc/288/jim-mack

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Last week I dedicated my feature NFL article to looking at key trends for the wildcard games, so like the league itself, this week I will be moving on to the divisional round. With only two of the four hosts having won in the wild card round, Tennessee, Atlanta, Jacksonville, and New Orleans now join the top two seeded teams in each conference, and we have just eight teams still in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. Starting on Saturday, you’ll finally get to see the league’s “best teams” in action again. That is, if you consider the teams that earned the byes last weekend to be the best by virtue of their won-lost marks. Those clubs are of course New England & Pittsburgh in the AFC, and Philadelphia & Minnesota in the NFC. Of course, the Vikings are in a unique situation this season, trying to become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl game on their home field. That should add some flavor to the NFC proceedings.

If this season is like any other in recent memory, not all of the Top 4 seeded teams will advance to next week’s championship games, but it’s a good bet that at least three of them will. That has been the case in five of the last six seasons, a span during which only six road teams have moved on. However, last year was a break to the streak, as both Sunday road teams advanced, Green Bay & Pittsburgh. Still, if the typical pattern holds, expect one of this year’s four hosts to be eliminated early. On paper, that team would figure to be Philadelphia, with the Eagles being the only underdog of the four host teams.

One important point of note regarding the lines for the games…Last year was the first time since the 2009 playoffs that fewer than two teams were favored by at least a TD in this round, and I speculated at that time that perhaps it signaled a couple of upsets coming. Pittsburgh & Green Bay both pulled those upsets. For 2018, two of the teams are favored by at least 7-points, a return to normalcy of sorts.

Recent years have produced some wild action in this round, and perhaps this weekend could just as easily be called the “wild”card playoffs. The divisional playoffs have also produced a lot of points recently, with 19 of the 28 games over the last seven years having surpassed the posted total.

So, let’s start digging through the NFL Divisional Playoff log of recent seasons to see if we can’t uncover some trends and systems that we can apply when handicapping this weekend’s games. General Divisional Playoff ATS Trends• The OUTRIGHT winner has covered the

pointspread in 31 of the L39 Divisional Playoff games with one push. Interestingly, seven of those winning teams that failed to cover the pointspread did so in the last six seasons. If you recall, in last week’s Wildcard article, outright winners were on a 36-5-1 ATS run.

• Road teams have been very competitive in this playoff round, going 13-8-1 ATS in the L22 games. However, they have only won outright in six of those tries.

• There have only been three road favorites in the L22 years of the divisional playoffs, and San Francisco became the first to win in that scenario in 2014, beating Carolina 23-10. At this point, Atlanta is about a field goal favorite at Philadelphia. The Eagles are the first #1 seed to be a home dog.

• Pointspreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites of 5.5-points or less (or underdog) are just 8-9 SU & 5-12 ATS since ’06, while those laying 6-points or more are 21-9 SU & 13-16-1 ATS in that same span.

• Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are just 5-3 SU & ATS since 2006 but have won four in a row.

• Road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 18-8-1 ATS in the L27 tries (10-17 SU). Jacksonville and New Orleans are priced in that range for Sunday’s games.

• In inter-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS surge. None of the games this weekend are between divisional foes.

• Of the teams playing this weekend, in the L15 years, Atlanta is 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS in divisional round playoff games, New Orleans is 2-2 SU & ATS, while Minnesota is 1-1 SU & ATS and Philadelphia is 5-1 SU & ATS. In the AFC, Tennessee is 1-2 SU & ATS, Jacksonville is 0-1 SU & 1-0 ATS, Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU & 5-2-1 ATS, and New England is 11-2 SU & 7-5-1 ATS. One interesting trend finds Pittsburgh having gone OVER the total in its L4 divisional round games at home.

• There has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based upon the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on. On Saturday’s, HOME teams have gone 14-2 SU & 11-5 ATS over the L8 seasons. OVER the total is also 13-3 in those games. On Sunday’s, ROAD teams hold the edge, going 13-11 SU & 18-5-1 ATS since ’06!

• In terms of AFC/NFC breakdown, AFC home teams are 12-5 SU & 8-8-1 ATS in the L17, while NFC hosts are 16-8 SU & 10-14 ATS since ’06 in this playoff round

RECENT NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF TRENDS


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Divisional Trends by Seed Number• Teams fight all season long to half home-field

advantage throughout their conference playoffs, however, that advantage has not lasted long as #1 seeds are on a skid of just 18-10 SU & 8-19-1 ATS dating back to 2004.

• Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6’s, as in that matchup the home teams are just 6-5 SU & 2-8-1 ATS since ’06. Philadelphia is taking on #6 Atlanta for 2018 but again, is the first #1 to be playing as an underdog.

• #2 seeds have actually been better than #1’s when it comes to protecting home field advantage in the divisional round, going 18-8 SU & 14-12 ATS over the L13 playoff seasons.

• NFC #1 seeds are just 3-8 ATS in their L11 games, beware Philadelphia backers. If you recall, Dallas lost outright to Green Bay a year ago.

• Of the last 20 teams that pulled off road wins in the wildcard round to advance to this weekend, 15 of them have covered the pointspread (78.9% with one push) and nine have won a second straight road game outright. Atlanta & Tennessee will be seeking 2nd straight road wins on Saturday.

Divisional Trends regarding Totals• Of the L16 divisional playoff games with

posted totals of 41.5 or less, 10 have gone UNDER the total. Similarly, those games with extremely high totals, 49 or more, have shown a penchant for going OVER the total, 11-6-1 since’02.

• In the L17 matchups between a #1 seed and a wildcard team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, UNDER the total is 12-6-1 with the home team scoring just 22.1 PPG.

• Recently, #1 seeds have tended to go OVER, 11-3 in the L14. Alternatively, five of the L7 #2 seed games went UNDER.

• Ten of the L14 NFC Divisional Round games have also gone OVER the total. In the AFC, OVER is 11-8-1 in the divisional round.

• Home teams that have covered the pointspread in divisional round games have also gone OVER the total in 12 straight contests! Alternatively, road team covers have seen 14 UNDER’s, 7 OVER’s since ’08. In other words, home teams win with offense, road teams compete with defense. The last home team to win, cover, and go UNDER was Minnesota in 2010, a 34-3 winner over Dallas.

FOLLOWING THE LINE/TOTAL MOVESLast week we showed you how sharp bettors were right in 23 of the L30 wildcard playoff games heading into last weekend’s action. This was determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. This same group has been sharp in the divisional round too, going 14-6 ATS since ’09. Interestingly, only five of the L37 divisional round games moved more than a point off the opening number, and those came in each

of the last four years. Oddsmakers should be commended for that. Last year, lines moved to all four home favorites after opening. For 2018, early moves were favoring Tennessee & Minnesota, but often the key moves come late in the hours before kickoff.

Bettors have picked successfully on early totals as well, going 18-12 in the L30 divisional playoff games that have seen the total move off the opening number. As of presstime, early bettors were favoring the UNDER in the two Saturday games, and the OVER in the New Orleans-Minnesota contest.

Stats generated in Divisional Playoff Games• It has taken more points to win in the

divisional playoff round as opposed to the wildcard round. Last week we explained that only one home team that topped the 20-point mark lost in the L16 years of wildcard playoff action, going 35-1 SU & 30-5-1 ATS. The benchmark for the divisional round is 27 points, as home teams that reach that point total are 29-3 SU & 23-9 ATS since ’02, however Dallas did lose a year ago despite scoring 31 points.

• Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home teams with a 14-18 SU & 4-26-2 ATS record since ’02 in divisional playoff games. If you consider this year’s top four teams, the Vikings scored the fewest points per game in the regular season at 23.9. All three others scored 25.0+ PPG.

• The magic point total for road teams in divisional playoff action has proven to be 21 points, as they are 17-14 SU & 23-8 ATS since ’02 when they reach that mark. When scoring 14 points or less, the chance of a road team winning in this round drops dramatically to 1-15 SU & 3-12-1 ATS.

• Since ’02, the offensive potency of the road team typically controls the total result. When road teams in the divisional round score 24 points over more, OVER is 22-3. When road teams fail to reach 17 points, UNDER is 16-4.

• Teams that gain more first downs are just 20-14-1 ATS in the L9 divisional playoff seasons.

• Teams that control the time of possession are just 17-18-1 ATS in the divisional playoffs since ’09.

• Divisional playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 23-12-1 ATS over the L8 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a divisional playoff game are 14-13-1 ATS since 2010. If you recall, running the football also proved a very important ingredient in the wildcard success recipe, even more so than this.

• Putting up big passing numbers in divisional playoff games has also been big a key to success, since teams with an edge in that stat are 22-13-1 ATS since ’09.

• Teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays have been quite successful. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a divisional playoff

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game are on a 23-7-1 ATS run.• The turnover has been the biggest factor in

winning or losing divisional playoff games of late, as teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent have gone 24-6-1 ATS since ‘08.

Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record Trends• Home teams that won 13 or more games in

the regular season are only 13-12 SU & 7-18 ATS in the divisional playoffs since ’06. When matched up against a team that won 11 or more games in the regular season, that mark drops to just 4-6 SU & 1-9 ATS during that span. All four home teams for 2018 won 13 games, and the only road team this weekend that won 11 or more games was New Orleans.

• There seems to be a noticeable difference in success levels for road teams in the divisional playoff round that won 10 or less games in the regular season as opposed to those that were 11-5 or better. The lesser group is just 8-25 SU & 15-17-1 ATS since ’02, while the more elite group was 13-13 SU & 19-7 ATS. New Orleans qualifies for 2018 in that latter group, while the three other teams were 10 wins or fewer.

• Home teams that won at least four more games during the regular season than their divisional playoff opponent are 12-2 SU & 8-6 ATS since ’05. New England will test this trend in 2018.

Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends• Teams that scored more points per game

during the regular season are 24-12 SU & 19-16-1 ATS over the L9 divisional playoff seasons, including 6-1-1 ATS over the L2 seasons.

• Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 25-23 SU & 30-17-1 ATS since ’06, including 14-5-1 ATS the last five years. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were 22-26 SU & 30-17-1 ATS. Jacksonville, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Tennessee own these categories in 2018.

• Passing yardage has meant very little in terms of divisional playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going just 28-20 SU & 22-25-1 ATS over the L12 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt teams share a similar 26-22 SU & 22-25-1 ATS mark.

• Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to divisional playoff success, going 31-17 SU & 25-22-1 ATS over the L12 seasons. However, the offensive yards per play statistic doesn’t reflect that level of outright success at all, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are just 19-17 SU & 19-16-1 ATS over the L9 years.

• Unlike the wildcard round, offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective

statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 26-18 SU & 18-25-1 ATS in the divisional playoff round since ’07.

• Completely throw out the offensive turnovers statistic since teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are only 16-22 SU & 16-21-1 ATS since ’08 in divisional playoff games.

• Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were just 27-21 SU & 18-29-1 ATS in the L48 divisional playoff games. However, all four teams with edges here won a year ago.

Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends• Teams that allowed fewer points per game

during the regular season are 15-13 SU & 13-14-1 ATS in the divisional round over the L7 years. If you recall, defensive scoring edges were highly advantageous in the Wild Card round.

• Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game are on a surge of 21-15 SU & 19-16-1 ATS in the divisional playoff round. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush are even better for a more extended period at 33-13 SU & 28-17-1 ATS. Jacksonville, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Tennessee enjoy edges in this for 2018.

• Divisional playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are a healthy 28-16 SU & 23-20-1 ATS over the L11 seasons in this round. Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are on a nice run of 24-12 SU & 20-15-1 ATS over the L9 divisional playoff seasons.

• Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively own a record of 19-17 SU & 17-18-1 ATS since ’09 while those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a bit better outright at 20-15 SU & 16-18-1 ATS. Kansas City & Pittsburgh both allowed 5.70 yards per play heading into their 2017 matchup.

• When analyzing divisional playoff statistical matchups, defensive yards per point is NOT the golden nugget it was in the wildcard round, as teams with an edge there are just 21-25 SU & 22-23-1 ATS in the L46 games of this round. Those teams are 1-7 SU & 2-5-1 ATS over the L2 years.

• Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are 23-12 SU & 25-9-1 ATS since ’09 in divisional playoff games. This one sure figures to be one worth considering. Incidentally, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Philadelphia hold SIGNIFCANT edges in takeaways as all three were in the NFL’s Top 10 in this category. Tennessee holds a slight edge as well over New England.

• Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a 21-16 SU & 22-14-1 ATS run in the L37 divisional playoff games, but just 1-5 ATS in the L6.


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Date Day Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U SU ATS Conf

1/12/08 Saturday #2 - GREEN BAY 42 #3 - SEATTLE 20 -9 -7.5 40.5 43.5 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC1/12/08 Saturday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 31 #5 - JACKSONVILLE 20 -12 -14 48 51 HOME ROAD Push FAV DOG AFC1/13/08 Sunday #2 - INDIANAPOLIS 24 #3 - SAN DIEGO 28 -8 -11 49 46.5 ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG AFC1/13/08 Sunday #1 - DALLAS 17 #5 - NY GIANTS 21 -7 -7 48 47.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG NFC

1/10/09 Saturday #2 - CAROLINA 13 #4 - ARIZONA 33 -9.5 -10 46.5 50 ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG NFC1/10/09 Saturday #1 - TENNESSEE 10 #6 - BALTIMORE 13 -3 -3 34 33.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG AFC1/11/09 Sunday #1 - NY GIANTS 11 #6 - PHILADELPHIA 23 -5 -4 40.5 39 ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG NFC1/11/09 Sunday #2 - PITTSBURGH 35 #4 - SAN DIEGO 24 -6 -6.5 40 38 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC

1/16/10 Saturday #1 - NEW ORLEANS 45 #4 - ARIZONA 14 -6.5 -7.5 56 56.5 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC1/16/10 Saturday #1 - INDIANAPOLIS 20 #6 - BALTIMORE 3 -6.5 -6.5 44.5 44 HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV AFC1/17/10 Sunday #2 - MINNESOTA 34 #3 - DALLAS 3 -3 -3 48 45 HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV NFC1/17/10 Sunday #2 - SAN DIEGO 14 #5 - NY JETS 17 -9 -8.5 42.5 43 ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG AFC

1/15/11 Saturday #2 - PITTSBURGH 31 #5 - BALTIMORE 24 -3.5 -3 37 38 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC1/15/11 Saturday #1 - ATLANTA 21 #6 - GREEN BAY 48 -1.5 -1 45.5 44 ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG NFC1/16/11 Sunday #2 - CHICAGO 35 #4 - SEATTLE 24 -10 -10 40 42 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC1/16/11 Sunday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 21 #6 - NY JETS 28 -9 -9 45 45 ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG AFC

1/14/12 Saturday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 45 #4 - DENVER 10 -14 -14 50.5 51 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC1/14/12 Saturday #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 36 #3 - NEW ORLEANS 32 3 3 47 46 HOME HOME OVER DOG DOG NFC1/15/12 Sunday #2 - BALTIMORE 20 #3 - HOUSTON 13 -8 -7.5 38 37 HOME ROAD UNDER FAV DOG AFC1/15/12 Sunday #1 - GREEN BAY 20 #4 - NY GIANTS 37 -9.5 -8.5 51 54 ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG NFC

1/12/13 Saturday #1 - DENVER 35 #4 - BALTIMORE 38 -9 -9 46 44 ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG AFC1/12/13 Saturday #2 - SAN FRANCISCO 45 #3 - GREEN BAY 31 -3 -3 45.5 45 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC1/13/13 Sunday #1 - ATLANTA 30 #5 - SEATTLE 28 -3 -3 44.5 46.5 HOME ROAD OVER FAV DOG NFC1/13/13 Sunday #2 - NEW ENGLAND 41 #3 - HOUSTON 28 -9 -9 49 50 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC

1/11/14 Saturday #2 - NEW ENGLAND 43 #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 22 -7 -7 52.5 50.5 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC1/11/14 Saturday #1 - SEATTLE 23 #6 - NEW ORLEANS 15 -8.5 -9 48 44 HOME ROAD UNDER FAV DOG NFC1/12/14 Sunday #2 - CAROLINA 10 #5 - SAN FRANCISCO 23 1 1 43 41.5 ROAD ROAD UNDER FAV FAV NFC1/12/14 Sunday #1 - DENVER 24 #6 - SAN DIEGO 17 -9.5 -7.5 54.5 55 HOME ROAD UNDER FAV DOG AFC

1/10/15 Saturday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 35 #6 - BALTIMORE 31 -7 -7 49 47 HOME ROAD OVER FAV DOG AFC1/10/15 Saturday #1 - SEATTLE 31 #4 - CAROLINA 17 -12 -14 40.5 40 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC1/11/15 Sunday #2 - DENVER 13 #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 24 -7 -9.5 54 54 ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG AFC1/11/15 Sunday #2 - GREEN BAY 26 #3 - DALLAS 21 -6.5 -5.5 53 52.5 HOME ROAD UNDER FAV DOG NFC

1/16/16 Saturday #2 - NEW ENGLAND 27 #5 - KANSAS CITY 20 -4.5 -6 43 44.5 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC1/16/16 Saturday #2 - ARIZONA 26 #5 - GREEN BAY 20 -7 -7 50 49 HOME ROAD UNDER FAV DOG NFC1/17/16 Sunday #1 - CAROLINA 31 #6 - SEATTLE 24 -3 -2.5 44 42 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC1/17/16 Sunday #1 - DENVER 23 #6 - PITTSBURGH 16 -7.5 -7 39 41.5 HOME Push UNDER FAV Push AFC

1/14/17 Saturday #2 - ATLANTA 36 #3 - SEATTLE 20 -3.5 -6.5 49.5 51 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC1/14/17 Saturday #1 - NEW ENGLAND 34 #4 - HOUSTON 16 -16 -16 44.5 44 HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC1/15/17 Sunday #1 - DALLAS 31 #4 - GREEN BAY 34 -4 -5.5 51.5 53 ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG NFC1/15/17 Sunday #2 - KANSAS CITY 16 #3 - PITTSBURGH 18 -1.5 -2.5 46 45 ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG AFC

2012 Season

2013 Season

2014 Season

2015 Season

2016 Season

2007 Season

2008 Season

2009 Season

2010 Season

2011 Season

Teams’ Regular Season Statistics Combined TrendCombing the ability to run the ball on offense and stop the run on defense, two of the more successful angles from above, teams with an edge in yards per rush on BOTH sides of the ball are on a 22-6 ATS run in the divisional playoff round! Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Tennessee would be your ATS choices for 2018 if the trend holds true.

SummaryJust like the Wild Card round, it would seem that strength up front, good quarterbacking, a strong defense, and the backing of sharp bettors is a good recipe to start with as you sit down to handicap this week’s games.

Considering what we’ve analyzed with regards to divisional playoff performance and statistics, only certain statistics are really worthy of consideration when handicapping the games. Interestingly though, the key stat angles that have shown betting success recently are actually favoring the underdogs. Perhaps we could be in for a surprising weekend, continuing a trend that started last weekend in the Wild Card round.

Best of luck and I guess at his point, don’t be shocked to see a pair of matchups you might not have expected next weekend when we review the conference championships.

8




NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND(301) ATLANTA (-3 | 41.5) [SU:11-6 | ATS:8-9] AT (302) PHILADELPHIA [SU:13-3 | ATS:10-6]

JANUARY 13, 2018 4:35 PM on NBC - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ATLANTA 22.3 21 28-116 [4.2] 33-21-246 [7.5] 16.2 19.3 20 25-105 [4.3] 35-23-216 [6.1] 16.6 0 +3.0 PHILADELPHIA 28.6 21 30-132 [4.5] 35-21-234 [6.6] 12.8 18.4 17 21-79 [3.8] 38-23-227 [6.1] 16.6 +11 +10.2

While it does not end up being true every time, experience mattered in Atlanta’s upset of the Los Angeles Rams. In many ways, the Falcons’ (11-6, 8-9 ATS) game plan for Philadelphia will be similar to what they did against L.A. On defense, suck the life out of the Eagles running game. If they accomplish this, that helps them put more pressure on quarterback Nick Foles. From that point, the Dirty Birds defense figures to play tight pressure coverage to limit yards after the catch and they will attempt to heat up Foles in the pocket. Offensively, Atlanta has to stick with its running game even when it will not work from time to time against Philly’s No.1 run defense. Matt Ryan will face pressure and has to make wise choices to find secondary receivers to keep the chains moving.

Philadelphia (13-3, 10-6 ATS) is the first top seed in the divisional round to be listed as an underdog on the opening line (+3), as they prepare to host No. 6 Atlanta. The reason as to why is trading Foles for Carson Wentz. It is acknowledged that Foles will have to play better than he did in his past three starts for the Eagles to advance to next Sunday. The Philly offensive coaches will have to trust the running game even if the results are not great early, since they only averaged 22 carries per game in Foles’ three starts compared to 31 when Wentz was the starter. Expect the Eagles to play faster, since Foles has also played crisper at a quicker pace. Philadelphia cannot allow nemesis Julio Jones to have a big game against them.

GAME TRENDS• ATLANTA is 7-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(CS)• PHILADELPHIA is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - As underdog• ATLANTA is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - Against high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?301 ATLANTA -3 29.0 22.0 20.7 302 PHILADELPHIA 41.5 30.5 1.8 17.7 22.2 PHI SEASON GAME LOGSBUFFALO RESULTS JACKSONVILLE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU01-06 at LA RAMS + 6 48.5 26-13 W W U 12-31 VS DALLAS + 4 41 0-6 L L U 12-31 VS CAROLINA - 4.5 44.5 22-10 W W U 12-25 VS OAKLAND -10 46 19-10 W L U 12-24 at NEW ORLEANS + 5.5 51.5 13-23 L L U 12-17 at NY GIANTS - 7 41 34-29 W L O 12-18 at TAMPA BAY - 7 49.5 24-21 W L U 12-10 at LA RAMS - 1 47 43-35 W W O 12-07 VS NEW ORLEANS - 2.5 51.5 20-17 W W U 12-03 at SEATTLE - 3.5 46.5 10-24 L L U 12-03 VS MINNESOTA - 2 48 9-14 L L U 11-26 VS CHICAGO -14 43.5 31-3 W W U 11-26 VS TAMPA BAY -10 47 34-20 W W O 11-19 at DALLAS - 6 48 37-9 W W U 11-20 at SEATTLE + 1 46 34-31 W W O 11-05 VS DENVER - 7 41 51-23 W W O 11-12 VS DALLAS - 3 48.5 27-7 W W U 10-29 VS SAN FRANCISCO -13 45 33-10 W W U 11-05 at CAROLINA - 3 42 17-20 L L U 10-23 VS WASHINGTON - 5 48.5 34-24 W W O 10-29 at NY JETS - 6.5 43.5 25-20 W L O 10-12 at CAROLINA + 3 44 28-23 W W O 10-22 at NEW ENGLAND + 2.5 56.5 7-23 L L U 10-08 VS ARIZONA - 6 44.5 34-7 W W U 10-15 VS MIAMI -14 46 17-20 L L U 10-01 at LA CHARGERS + 2 47.5 26-24 W W O 10-01 VS BUFFALO - 8 47.5 17-23 L L U 09-24 VS NY GIANTS - 5 42 27-24 W L O 09-24 at DETROIT - 3 50.5 30-26 W W O 09-17 at KANSAS CITY + 4 46.5 20-27 L L O 09-17 VS GREEN BAY - 3 54 34-23 W W O 09-10 at WASHINGTON - 1 49.5 30-17 W W U 09-10 at CHICAGO - 6.5 48 23-17 W L U

HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONSThe Eagles will be hosting a playoff game for the first time in four years on Saturday and will be squaring off with the Falcons for the first time in the playoffs since the 2005 NFC Championship game. Philadelphia won that game 27-10 but went on to lose the Super Bowl to New England. Since that contest, the teams have met nine times, with the Eagles holding a 5-4 edge outright and Atlanta leading 5-4 ATS. The most profitable wagers in that span are the host teams (6-3 ATS) and UNDER the total (also 6-3). Going back a little further, since 2000, the Eagles boast a 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS record when hosting Atlanta. With the Falcons being favored in this week’s game, it should be noted that they haven’t been favored in Philadelphia in any of the 13 lined games they have played there since ’79.

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF


9


NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND(303) TENNESSEE [SU:10-7 | ATS:9-7-1] AT (304) NEW ENGLAND (-13 | 46.5) [SU:13-3 | ATS:11-5]

JANUARY 13, 2018 8:15 PM on CBS - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE 20.9 18 28-120 [4.3] 31-19-199 [6.4] 15.3 22.2 20 24-88 [3.6] 38-23-240 [6.4] 14.8 -6 -1.3 NEW ENGLAND 28.6 24 28-118 [4.2] 37-24-276 [7.5] 13.8 18.5 20 24-115 [4.7] 37-23-251 [6.8] 19.8 +6 +10.1

Tennessee (10-7, 9-8 ATS) might be double digit underdogs at New England, nevertheless, they are already playing one more game than anyone else anticipated. In addition, instead of being the rudderless offensive team they were all year, the Titans might actually have an offensive plan. Tennessee is built to run the ball and having Derrick Henry as their featured back seems to not only be a spark, but it helps the passing game. Let’s face facts, Marcus Mariota is not a pure pocket passer, so get him on the edge where he can run or throw to increase his effectiveness against a New England defense that still finished 29th in total defense. The Titans No.4 run defense has to take the run away from Patriots while still avoiding being carved up by Tom Brady.

For the first time in recent memory, New England (13-3, 11-5 ATS) has question marks entering the postseason. Not so much on the field, as the Patriots are 11-1 and 10-2 ATS since their 2-2 start, but in the hierarchy of the franchise. If New England is anything less than impressive against Tennessee, reports will persist about a house divided at the top, where all the power rests. This is not the Patriots best team either, with a below average defense that has figured out how to allow yards and not points (18.1 PPG). Brady will be helped by time off, but he still had five interceptions in the last five games and let’s face it, he is 40 and that number is only going up. If the Pats win 35-13, all questions marks evaporate. However, a 23-17 type of victory brings more pressure.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS(L10G) at HOME - as double digit favorite• TENNESSEE is 2-8 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per

point(CS)• TENNESSEE is 8-2 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8

yards per attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?303 TENNESSEE 46.5 23.5 15.4 18.5 304 NEW ENGLAND -13 31.5 -11.4 30.2 29.9 SEASON GAME LOGSCAROLINA RESULTS NEW ORLEANS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU01-06 at KANSAS CITY + 8.5 44 22-21 W W U 12-31 VS NY JETS -16.5 43.5 26-6 W W U 12-31 VS JACKSONVILLE - 2.5 40.5 15-10 W W U 12-24 VS BUFFALO -11 47.5 37-16 W W O 12-24 VS LA RAMS + 6 46.5 23-27 L W O 12-17 at PITTSBURGH - 2.5 53 27-24 W W U 12-17 at SAN FRANCISCO + 2.5 44.5 23-25 L W O 12-11 at MIAMI -10 48 20-27 L L U 12-10 at ARIZONA - 3 42 7-12 L L U 12-03 at BUFFALO - 7.5 49 23-3 W W U 12-03 VS HOUSTON - 7 42 24-13 W W U 11-26 VS MIAMI -16.5 48.5 35-17 W W O 11-26 at INDIANAPOLIS - 3 46.5 20-16 W W U 11-19 ** OAKLAND - 7 54.5 33-8 W W U 11-16 at PITTSBURGH + 7 44.5 17-40 L L O 11-12 at DENVER - 7 44.5 41-16 W W O 11-12 VS CINCINNATI - 5 40.5 24-20 W L O 10-29 VS LA CHARGERS - 6.5 49 21-13 W W U 11-05 VS BALTIMORE - 3 41 23-20 W P O 10-22 VS ATLANTA - 2.5 56.5 23-7 W W U 10-22 at CLEVELAND - 5.5 42.5 12-9 W L U 10-15 at NY JETS - 9 48.5 24-17 W L U 10-16 VS INDIANAPOLIS - 6.5 46.5 36-22 W W O 10-05 at TAMPA BAY - 3.5 55 19-14 W W U 10-08 at MIAMI + 1 41.5 10-16 L L U 10-01 VS CAROLINA - 8.5 48 30-33 L L O 10-01 at HOUSTON - 2.5 43.5 14-57 L L O 09-24 VS HOUSTON -13 44.5 36-33 W L O 09-24 VS SEATTLE - 2.5 41.5 33-27 W W O 09-17 at NEW ORLEANS - 5.5 55 36-20 W W O 09-17 at JACKSONVILLE - 1 41.5 37-16 W W O 09-07 VS KANSAS CITY - 8 47.5 27-42 L L O 09-10 VS OAKLAND - 3 50.5 16-26 L L U

HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONSThe last time the Titans and Patriots matched up in the playoffs was in the 2004 divisional round, a game won by host New England 17-14. Obviously a lot has changed since then, but two things that have remained constant are that Tom Brady is still the quarterback for the Patriots and Bill Belichick is still the head coach. The Titans, led by HC Jeff Fisher and QB Steve McNair in that game, covered the 6.5-point spread but haven’t been close to the patriots since in head-to-head play. In fact, Belichick & Brady are 4-0 SU & ATS against the Titans in that span and have outscored them by an average margin of 166-52, including 92-16 in two games at Foxboro. Dating back to ’91, seven of ten games between these franchises have gone OVER the total.


10




NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND(305) JACKSONVILLE [SU:11-6 | ATS:9-8] AT (306) PITTSBURGH (-7 | 41) [SU:13-3 | ATS:7-9]

JANUARY 14, 2018 1:05 PM on CBS - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF JACKSONVILLE 25.1 20 33-142 [4.3] 32-19-216 [6.7] 14.3 15.9 16 27-117 [4.3] 32-18-168 [5.2] 17.9 +12 +9.2 PITTSBURGH 25.4 22 27-104 [3.8] 37-24-274 [7.4] 14.9 19.2 17 24-106 [4.4] 31-19-201 [6.4] 16.0 +2 +6.2

For Jacksonville (11-6, 9-8 ATS) fans, winning a first playoff game in a decade and having already beaten Pittsburgh are positive developments. The Jaguars defense is one the best in the NFL and they will arrive in Pittsburgh as a fearless bunch. Where the problems reside is on the other side of the ball. After playing like a new quarterback for the first three weeks of December, Blake Bortles has returned to inconsistent ways. The Jags offensive coordinator was so afraid of a Bortles mistake he would not even try and throw deep for fear of an interception against Buffalo last week. Leonard Fournette had no holes to run through against Buffalo’s eight or nine-man run defense and he looks a half step slower after a long rookie season. Unless Bortles does a 180-degree flip, it will take another five-turnover performance by Jacksonville to have a chance to win.

For Pittsburgh, the Wild Card round was a welcome week off. We still do not know Antonio Brown’s status, which probably matters less in this game than the next. For everyone else on the Steelers, they should be reinvigorated and ready to go. Pittsburgh (13-3, 7-9 ATS) is one slight bobble from being undefeated since last facing Jacksonville in Week 5. No questions the Jaguars defense is outstanding, but Ben Roethlisberger and the Pitt offense is much more in sync since then. One would imagine the Steelers will be out to build an early lead on the Jaguars, looking to make Bortles beat them throwing the pigskin. If Pittsburgh can stone the Jaguars running game, there will be chances at interceptions that can change the outcome quickly.

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 6-1-1 ATS(L8G) - In Divisional Round Playoff Games• JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9

yards per carry(CS)• PITTSBURGH is 13-1-1 OVER(L15G) at HOME - In January STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?305 JACKSONVILLE 41 27.0 19.7 JAC 20.2 OVER306 PITTSBURGH -7 29.0 -4.9 22.1 24.5 SEASON GAME LOGSTENNESSEE RESULTS KANSAS CITY RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU01-07 VS BUFFALO - 9 39.5 10-3 W L U 12-31 VS CLEVELAND - 4.5 38 28-24 W L O 12-31 at TENNESSEE + 2.5 40.5 10-15 L L U 12-25 at HOUSTON - 8.5 45 34-6 W W U 12-24 at SAN FRANCISCO - 3.5 43.5 33-44 L L O 12-17 VS NEW ENGLAND + 2.5 53 24-27 L L U 12-17 VS HOUSTON -10.5 39.5 45-7 W W O 12-10 VS BALTIMORE - 6 43 39-38 W L O 12-10 VS SEATTLE - 3 41 30-24 W W O 12-04 at CINCINNATI - 4.5 43 23-20 W L P 12-03 VS INDIANAPOLIS -10 41 30-10 W W U 11-26 VS GREEN BAY -14 43 31-28 W L O 11-26 at ARIZONA - 6 37 24-27 L L O 11-16 VS TENNESSEE - 7 44.5 40-17 W W O 11-19 at CLEVELAND - 7 37 19-7 W W U 11-12 at INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 47 20-17 W L U 11-12 VS LA CHARGERS - 5 40.5 20-17 W L U 10-29 at DETROIT - 3 45 20-15 W W U 11-05 VS CINCINNATI - 6 38 23-7 W W U 10-22 VS CINCINNATI - 4 40 29-14 W W O 10-22 at INDIANAPOLIS - 3 41 27-0 W W U 10-15 at KANSAS CITY + 3.5 46 19-13 W W U 10-15 VS LA RAMS - 1 42 17-27 L L O 10-08 VS JACKSONVILLE - 7 41 9-30 L L U 10-08 at PITTSBURGH + 7 41 30-9 W W U 10-01 at BALTIMORE - 3.5 42 26-9 W W U 10-01 at NY JETS - 4 38.5 20-23 L L O 09-24 at CHICAGO - 7 43.5 17-23 L L U 09-24 ** BALTIMORE + 3 38 44-7 W W O 09-17 VS MINNESOTA - 8 43.5 26-9 W W U 09-17 VS TENNESSEE + 1 41.5 16-37 L L O 09-10 at CLEVELAND -10 47.5 21-18 W L U 09-10 at HOUSTON + 6 38 29-7 W W U

HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONSThe last time the Jaguars and Steelers met in the playoffs was in the 2008 Wild Card round, and the visiting Jaguars won 31-29 as, get this, 3-point road favorites. That game will mean little to the outcome of this weekend’s contest, but what could prove to be more important is the regular season meeting between these teams back in October. Jacksonville also won that game at Heinz Field, a 30-9 trouncing in which HC Doug Marrone’s team physically beat the Steelers down, forcing them into five turnovers. That was the fourth straight road win against the spread in head-to-head play (3-1 SU). Even more distinctive, consider that the underdogs in this rivalry are on a 9-1 ATS run dating back to ’02, and the Jaguars are 6-2 SU & ATS in their L8 trips to Pittsburgh.



11


NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND(307) NEW ORLEANS [SU:12-5 | ATS:9-8] AT (308) MINNESOTA (-4 | 45) [SU:13-3 | ATS:11-4-1]

JANUARY 14, 2018 4:40 PM on FOX - US BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2017 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 28.2 21 27-124 [4.5] 33-24-268 [8.0] 13.9 20.7 20 25-111 [4.4] 35-21-230 [6.6] 16.5 +6 +7.5 MINNESOTA 23.9 21 31-122 [3.9] 33-22-235 [7.1] 14.9 15.8 16 23-84 [3.7] 35-20-192 [5.5] 17.5 +5 +8.1

These teams met at the same location on opening Monday night, a game which Minnesota won 29-19. Back then the Saints defense was still anwork in progress and they were carved up by some quarterback named Sam Bradford. For New Orleans (12-5, 9-8 ATS) to knock off Minnesota, they will have to do something particularly well. The Saints had the No. 5 running game in the NFL this season. In first meeting, the Saints had 60 yards rushing and against Carolina this past week, they were held to 41 yards on the ground. Chances are that Drew Brees will not bail out his team on the road against the league’s best defense without a running game. The New Orleans top defensive task will be to keep Minnesota behind the chains on down and distance all game long and force field goal attempts similar to last week.

Minnesota (13-3, 11-4-1 ATS) has been built where the reliance is not on the quarterback for them to win. That does not mean Case Keenum can have a bad game and the Vikings will emerge victorious, rather, he and his teammates have to play their game. Keenum’s success is playing smart and not turning the ball over while effectively utilizing an underrated collection of offensive weapons behind a vastly improved offensive line. As long as Minnesota plays at its pace, the game should be in control. For the Vikings defense, it is about forcing third and long. If they contain New Orleans’ run game, besides all their other gaudy defensive numbers, they allowed a league-low 25.2 percent conversion rate on third downs this season.

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS(L3Y) - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles• NEW ORLEANS is 4-7 ATS(L3Y) - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against big play passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards

per attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?307 NEW ORLEANS 45 29.5 19.9 21.4 308 MINNESOTA -4 31.0 -4.3 24.1 24.9 SEASON GAME LOGSATLANTA RESULTS LA RAMS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU01-07 VS CAROLINA - 6.5 47.5 31-26 W L O 12-31 VS CHICAGO -13 38 23-10 W P U 12-31 at TAMPA BAY - 6 49 24-31 L L O 12-23 at GREEN BAY - 9 41 16-0 W W U 12-24 VS ATLANTA - 5.5 51.5 23-13 W W U 12-17 VS CINCINNATI -13 43 34-7 W W U 12-17 VS NY JETS -16 47 31-19 W L O 12-10 at CAROLINA - 2.5 40.5 24-31 L L O 12-07 at ATLANTA + 2.5 51.5 17-20 L L U 12-03 at ATLANTA + 2 48 14-9 W W U 12-03 VS CAROLINA - 6 48 31-21 W W O 11-23 at DETROIT - 2.5 46 30-23 W W O 11-26 at LA RAMS + 3 54 20-26 L L U 11-19 VS LA RAMS - 2 46 24-7 W W U 11-19 VS WASHINGTON - 9.5 52.5 34-31 W L O 11-12 at WASHINGTON PK 42 38-30 W W O 11-12 at BUFFALO - 2.5 48 47-10 W W O 10-29 ** CLEVELAND -11 38 33-16 W W O 11-05 VS TAMPA BAY - 7 54.5 30-10 W W U 10-22 VS BALTIMORE - 5.5 37.5 24-16 W W O 10-29 VS CHICAGO - 7.5 46 20-12 W W U 10-15 VS GREEN BAY + 3 46.5 23-10 W W U 10-22 at GREEN BAY - 3.5 45.5 26-17 W W U 10-09 at CHICAGO - 3.5 41 20-17 W L U 10-15 VS DETROIT - 5 50 52-38 W W O 10-01 VS DETROIT - 3 43.5 7-14 L L U 10-01 ** MIAMI - 4 51.5 20-0 W W U 09-24 VS TAMPA BAY - 1 41 34-17 W W O 09-24 at CAROLINA + 5 46.5 34-13 W W O 09-17 at PITTSBURGH + 8 43.5 9-26 L L U 09-17 VS NEW ENGLAND + 5.5 55 20-36 L L O 09-11 VS NEW ORLEANS - 3 47.5 29-19 W W O 09-11 at MINNESOTA + 3 47.5 19-29 L L O

HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONSThe Saints and Vikings have played three playoff games against one another in their rich histories, with the latter winning two. However, it is the most recent game that probably still stings Minnesota fans more than any other in recent memory. That was the 2010 NFC Championship game in which QB Brett Favre and the Vikings missed a golden opportunity to head to the Super Bowl because of a late interception. New Orleans went on to win its only Super Bowl title two weeks later. Since that game, these teams have played each other four times and the Saints own a 3-1 SU & ATS edge. However, the Vikings win came this season, in week 1, a 29-19 decision in Minneapolis. The rematch is this Sunday in the same location and New Orleans will be looking to snap a 4-game ATS winning streak by favorites in head-to-head play. In terms of totals, OVER is on a 6-0-1 run in the Saints’ L7 trips to Minnesota.


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Welcome back to another edition of Line Moves, looking at all the biggest betting moves in the NFL Playoffs. Besides this we will offer free picks on these contests. With so few options, we will cover even the smaller moves to this point as part of the discussion.

NFL(301) ATLANTA at (302) PHILADELPHIA4:35 ET NBCThe total on the weekend’s first playoff game has changed the most, moved from 43.5 to 41.5. The most obvious reason for falling number is the lack of faith bettors have in Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles, which makes sense. The other rationale is the ever-improving Atlanta defense, which has quietly given up on 16.3 points a game in their last half dozen outings. This has led to six straight UNDER’s for the Falcons. One can surmise the role the Eagles defense will have to play to limit Atlanta from scoring to keep Philly in the game as underdogs. On the surface, the lower score looks to be the correct side, with turnovers the one aspect that is unpredictable. Nonetheless, the Dirty Birds are 10-0 UNDER off four or more consecutive UNDER’s the last three seasons. Our View- Lean Under

(303) TENNESSEE at (304) NEW ENGLAND8:15 ET CBSOnce this AFC encounter was set, everyone understood this divisional round contest would have the largest point spread. New England was officially released as a chalk-laden 13.5-point favorite over Tennessee. As we went to post, of the 15 sportsbooks we checked, seven were either at -13 or -14 and the rest were still at the original figure. On one hand, there are those that can see the Titans having success running the ball on the Patriots and keeping game closer. On the other end of the spectrum is New England, who does not allow many points and by the fourth quarter at home, they could just wear-out the Tennessee defense and put them away. While this seems like a lot of points, since 2009 in the postseason, double digit favorites are 7-1 ATS.Our View- Lean New England covers

(305) JACKSONVILLE at (306) PITTSBURGH 1:05 ET CBSTo this point, just a minor move on Pittsburgh, elevated from -7 to -7.5. As good as the Jacksonville defense is, I would expect the Steelers to become an increasingly larger favorite and here is why. The current total is 41. On the presumption that holds, based on the spread, that would make Pittsburgh about a 24-17 winner. When sportsbooks set a key number like 7, something has to sway

them to come off it and my best guess is sharp money is driving this line movement. If you like the hook with Jacksonville, you have to be confident Blake Bortles will play better than he has the last three weeks. However, you should know the Steelers are 11-1 ATS at home revenging an upset loss as a home favorite, winning by 11.1 points a contest.Our View- Pittsburgh covers

(307) NEW ORLEANS at (308) MINNESOTA 4:40 ET FOXOddsmakers released an intriguing number on this NFC contest, making Minnesota a 3.5-point home favorite. In the traditional sense, they are saying that Minnesota is ever so slightly better than New Orleans, since the Vikings would normally give three points at home. Though not a massive shift, the Sunday night line release saw the action on Minnesota and later that night they went to -4. This is really tough call with the Vikings 18-6 ATS as home favorites and the Saints 12-3 ATS revenging a same season loss (wining by 1.8 PPG).Our View- Lean New Orleans covers

RECORDSNFL Playoffs - 1-3NFL Regular Season -46-32-2College Regular Season - 47-47-2College Bowls - 10-7

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

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