week 11 summary

FFL 2008Week 11 Summary

Agenda

• Quick recap of Week 10

• maxjan vs. lengtime

• The Former Tony Fasano Era vs. charles

• Bindy vs. The Recream Team

• John Bowker Experience, The vs. pauloneill4ever

• Mark Chmura’s Hot Tub vs. Purple Panties

• Yes We Can vs. Less than Will Endowed

• Conclusions

Quick recap of week 10(on behalf of Elliot)

maxjan defeats Yes We Can T = 0-1

charles defeats lengtime T = 0-2

The Recream Team defeats pauloneill4ever T = 0-3

The Former Tony Fasano Era

defeats Bindy T = 0-4

Mark Chmura’s Hot Tub defeatsJohn Bowker Experience,

TheT = 0-5

Purple Panties defeats Less Than Will Endowed T = 1-5

Quick recap of week 10(on behalf of Elliot)

maxjan defeats Yes We Can T = 0-1

charles defeats lengtime T = 0-2

The Recream Team defeats pauloneill4ever T = 0-3

The Former Tony Fasano Era

defeats Bindy T = 0-4

Mark Chmura’s Hot Tub defeatsJohn Bowker Experience,

TheT = 0-5

Purple Panties defeats Less Than Will Endowed T = 1-5

Tommy season = 32-28

Agenda








• Conclusions

Matchup profile: Rice Bowl, game two

maxjan lengtime

Sign of zodiac

Scorpio Aquarius

Email thread participation

0% 48%

Playoff contender?

Strengths Running, passing, kicking Unimportant positions (TE, K)

Weaknesses Terrell Owens: clubhouse cancer Important positions (QB, RB, WR)

Key question

Can Max survive in such astrong division?

Will Derek Anderson ever find his way back to Roger’s roster?

The Rice Bowl has a long and storied history

20082007200620052004


20082007200620052004

Week 10

Roger beats Max,69-58


20082007200620052004

Week 10

Maxbeats Roger,106-67

Week 10



20082007200620052004

Week 10


Week 10


Week 10



Week 1

Max beats Roger,110-74

Week 11


20082007200620052004

Week 10


Week 10


Week 10



Week 1


Week 11


Week 3


20082007200620052004

Week 10


Week 10


Week 10


?

Week 11

????????

It’s a split year: Roger beats Max,87.78-79.76

0

20

40

60

80

100

Max J an

Dolphins

D. Clark

T. Owens

L. Moore

B. Marshall

C. Benson

M. MooreP. Rivers

79.76

Roger

Vikings

D. AkersA. Gates

B. Berrian

B. Edwards

C. J ohnson

T. Hightower

S. Slaton

J . Campbell

87.78

PointsHighlights

• Monday night comeback!- Roger entered Monday night down 6,

with stalwart Braylon Edwards playing unopposed

- Edwards’ 104 yard performance puts him over the top

• Measly production from Phillip Rivers and Mwelde Moore dooms the Janitors/janitors

• Buckle up: To get to the playoffs, Max (6-5) has to go through Glenn (6-5) and Elliot (7-4)

- Roger eliminated

It’s a split year: Roger beats Max,87.78-79.76

0

20

40

60

80

100

Max J an

Dolphins

D. Clark

T. Owens

L. Moore

B. Marshall

C. Benson

M. MooreP. Rivers

79.76

Roger

Vikings

D. AkersA. Gates

B. Berrian

B. Edwards

C. J ohnson

T. Hightower

S. Slaton

J . Campbell

87.78

PointsHighlights

Tommy = 0-1

• Monday night comeback!- Roger entered Monday night down 6,

with stalwart Braylon Edwards playing unopposed

- Edwards’ 104 yard performance puts him over the top

• Measly production from Phillip Rivers and Mwelde Moore dooms the Janitors/janitors

• Buckle up: To get to the playoffs, Max (6-5) has to go through Glenn (6-5) and Elliot (7-4)

- Roger eliminated

Agenda








• Conclusions

Matchup profile: Stuart Hall Lions face off, once again

The Former TonyFasano Era

charles

Sign of zodiac

Virgo [ed: that figures] Cancer


45% 0%

Playoff contender?

Strengths Fantasy team is good Leadership, Tony Gonzalez

Weaknesses Fantasy teams tend to choke 2L year sapping energy for FFL

Key question

What’s the best analogy for Tommy’s lack of championships?

Is there a role for Charlie in the Obama administration?

The “reverse jinx” does not appear to be a real effect

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Tommy's prediction and game outcomes(2007-08)

Tommy loses

Tommy wins

20 4

Tommy pickshimself

Tommy picksopponent

Observations

• Tommy picked himself to lose only once all last season

• This season, Tommy is 5-3 (.625) when picking himself and 2-1 (.667) when picking his opponent

• I liked it better when Emma picked the games

Tommy beats Charlie, 96.8-68.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

Tommy

M. Forte

G. J ennings

P. Manning

K. Smith

M. Colston

R. Gould

Titans

R. White

O. Daniels

96.80

Charlie

W. McGahee

R. Moss

M. Ryan

D. McAllister

C. J ohnson

K. Brown

Packers

S. Breaston

T. Gonzalez

68.50

PointsHighlights

• Good all-around effort by Tommy- Solid debuts by Manning (22.9) and

Jennings (14.9)- Kevin Smith makes a porno, runs for

112 years

• Game might have been close if Charlie had given the 49ers (Shaun Hill) a vote of confidence

• All players done by 4 pm on Sunday, in time to watch Barack Obama on 60 Minutes

Tommy beats Charlie, 96.8-68.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

Tommy

M. Forte

G. J ennings

P. Manning

K. Smith

M. Colston

R. Gould

Titans

R. White

O. Daniels

96.80

Charlie

W. McGahee

R. Moss

M. Ryan

D. McAllister

C. J ohnson

K. Brown

Packers

S. Breaston

T. Gonzalez

68.50

PointsHighlights

Tommy = 1-1

• Good all-around effort by Tommy- Solid debuts by Manning (22.9) and

Jennings (14.9)- Kevin Smith makes a porno, runs for

112 years

• Game might have been close if Charlie had given the 49ers (Shaun Hill) a vote of confidence

• All players done by 4 pm on Sunday, in time to watch Barack Obama on 60 Minutes

Agenda




• SURPRISE INTERLUDE: Return of the Luck Rating





• Conclusions

No surprises here: Will has been very lucky, Jason not so much

3

5

7

9

1,000 1,100 1,200

Points scored

900

Wins

Strong correlation between points scored and wins…

… and we blame deviation from the trend on luck

Expected wins

Actual wins

Luck Rating

Will 5.6 8 +2.4

Tommy 6.5 7 +0.5

Elliot 6.5 7 +0.5

Colin 5.7 6 +0.3

Dylan 3.8 4 +0.2

Max Jan 5.8 6 +0.2

Glenn 6.1 6 -0.1

BAG 5.3 5 -0.3

Charles 4.4 4 -0.4

Bestwick 4.7 4 -0.7

Roger 4.8 4 -0.8

Jason 6.8 5 -1.8

Unlu

cky

Luck

y

Agenda








• Conclusions

Matchup profile: Two owners versus none

Bindy The Recream Team

Sign of zodiac

Aquarius/Capricorn Aquarius


23% 13%

Playoff contender?

Strengths Consensus management None

Weaknesses Wide receivers, pale/blonde/frail Many

Key question

Are hopes and dreams resting on Tony Romo’s pinky?

Is Dylan even paying attention?

Despite making the fewest roster moves in the league, Bindy has fielded good teams

0.250

0.500

0.750

0 50 100 150 200 250

Winning percentage (2007-08)

Will

Tommy

Glenn

Dylan

Colin

Total number of roster moves (2007-08)

RogerMax JanJason

ElliotCharles

BestwickBAG

Management activism does not necessarily lead to team success

Dylan’s team blows…

… but he takes Bindy in a comeback victory!

0

25

50

75

100

125

Points

Bindy

Dylan

Sun AM Sun PM Sun Nite Mon Nite

Turner & Giants D lead way as Bindy takes early lead over Dylan (despite huge day from Housh)

Bo Scaife and Joe Nedney chip away at Bindy’s lead

Subpar day from Tony Romo barely outpaces Roy Williams

Marshawn Lynch cuts lead Bindy’s lead to 3 at the half…

… and leads Dylan to a 10 point victory! Lee Evans does not get a reception.

Dylan beats Bingo/Andy/Gage, 103-93.42

0

25

50

75

100

125

Bindy

D. Williams

S. Smith

T. Romo

M. Turner

J . Elam

Giants

M. MuhammadV. Shiancoe

93.42

Dylan

B. Green-Ellis

T. Housh-mandzadeh

J . Garcia

M. Lynch

R. Williams

J . NedneyRavens

W. Welker

B. Scaife

103.00

PointsHighlights

Tommy = 1-2

• Bindy starts DeAngelo Williams over LdT… and it works!

- Strong performances from Michael Turner and Giants

- Otherwise, uninspiring performances all around

• 56% of Dylan’s points came from Tim Houshmandzadeh and Marshawn Lynch

- And there’s nobody else on his roster that you care about or would ever start

- Dylan has won two straight!

• Bindy’s playoff hopes now are now seriously in doubt

Agenda








• Conclusions

Matchup profile: The all-too familiar versus the virtually unknown

John Bowker Experience, The

pauloneill4ever

Sign of zodiac

Gemini Unknown


55% 5%

Playoff contender?

Strengths Kurt Warner Anonymity

Weaknesses Kurt Warner, bunions QB controversies

Key question

Jerk me off?What does Glenn imagine we’re

all like in real life?

Elliot beats Glenn, 121-98.12

0

50

100

150

Elliot

RedskinsR. Bironas

D. Bowe

D. Avery

A. Boldin

B. Westbrook

T. J ones

K. Warner

121.00

Glenn

Panthers

M. PraterG. Olsen

A. J ohnsonL. Coles

H. Ward

C. J ohnson

F. Gore

J . Delhomme

98.12

PointsHighlights

• Impressive win by Elliot- Anquan Boldin acquisition looks very

good right now- Continued success from Thomas Jones,

Dwayne Bowe, and (eek) Kurt Warner

• Glenn’s inability to resolve his QB situation looms large

- Jake Delhomme? Really?- Loses third straight

• Balance of power shifts in Binary Division as Elliot takes outright lead


0

50

100

150

Elliot

RedskinsR. Bironas

D. Bowe

D. Avery

A. Boldin

B. Westbrook

T. J ones

K. Warner

121.00

Glenn

Panthers

M. PraterG. Olsen

A. J ohnsonL. Coles

H. Ward

C. J ohnson

F. Gore

J . Delhomme

98.12

PointsHighlights

Tommy = 2-2








0

50

100

150

Elliot

RedskinsR. Bironas

D. Bowe

D. Avery

A. Boldin

B. Westbrook

T. J ones

K. Warner

121.00

Glenn

Panthers

M. PraterG. Olsen

A. J ohnsonL. Coles

H. Ward

C. J ohnson

F. Gore

J . Delhomme

98.12

PointsHighlights

Tommy = 2-2







Further kudos on this call: “I expect Glenn to get back to his 100-point ways

(or close to it), but he won't have enough to silence the Eag-master.”

Agenda






• SURPRISE INTERLUDE: Tom-media bias



• Conclusions

Tommy’s predictions show a bias against Will, toward Glenn

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

(Tommy's predicted wins) - (Actual wins)

Will

-4

Dylan

-3

Colin

-2

Charles

-1

MaxJan

-1

Roger

0

BAG

1

Jason

1

Tommy

1

B'wick

2

Elliot

2

Glenn

4

6-54-7 8-34-7 6-53-84-71-10 9-2 10-16-55-6JTI prediction:5-64-7 7-48-3 4-74-76-54-7 7-4 6-55-66-5Actual record:

Biased against Biased toward

However, when normalizing for each player’s luck, the picture looks somewhat better

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

(Tommy's predicted wins) - (Expected wins)

Dylan

-2.8

Colin

-1.7

Will

-1.6

Charles

-1.4

Roger

-0.8

Jason

-0.8

MaxJan

-0.8

BAG

0.7

B'wick

1.3

Tommy

1.5

Elliot

2.5

Glenn

3.9

Biased against Biased toward

Tommy loooooves Glenn’s team

Agenda








• Conclusions

Matchup profile

Mark Chmura’s Hot Tub Purple Panties

Sign of zodiac

Leo Taurus


25% 7%

Playoff contender?

Strengths Scores a lot of points Well-balanced team, loud voice

Weaknesses Ohio Punctuation, orange Gatorade

Key question

Please don’t tuck your shirt into your jeans?

I’m a consultant?

If measured by kicker alone, Colin and Jason would be some of the league’s best teams…

0

2

4

6

8

10

Colin

9.7

J ason

8.7

BAG

8.7

Roger

8.6

B'wick

8.2

Will

8.2

Elliot

7.4

Tommy

7.4

Glenn

7.0

MaxJan

6.6

Dylan

6.5

Charlie

5.8

Points per week from kicker

… which leads to an important question:What if only kickers counted?

Note: These are real data. I really did go week by week and record the outcome of each kicker matchup.

Binary DivisionTeam Owner W L T PF PA Div Strk Previous Next Rank

*-lengtime rchu66 7 4 0 95 67 2-2-0 W1 W maxjan @John... 4

*-maxjan maxjan 6 4 1 73 76 1-2-1 L1 L @leng... paul... 6

y-John Bowker Experience, The eagan 4 5 2 81 81 1-1-2 T1 T @paul... leng... 7

yz-Pauloneill4ever grmoods 3 5 3 77 92 3-0-1 T1 T John... @maxjan 10

MGD DIVISION!!!Team Owner W L T PF PA Div Strk Previous Next Rank

*-Purple Panties Cmistele 7 4 0 107 92 3-1-0 W2 W Mark... @The ... 2

*- Mark Chmura's Hot Tub Thesteerat 6 3 2 96 84 1-2-1 L1 L @Purp... charles 5

y-The Former Tony Fasano Era jthussle 4 6 1 81 105 1-1-2 L3 L @charles Purp... 8

yz-charles CBisesto 4 7 0 64 90 1-3-0 W3 W The ... @Mark... 11

Don Slaze DivisionTeam Owner W L T PF PA Div Strk Previous Next Rank

*-Less Than Will Endowed will_curtiss 7 3 1 90 72 3-1-0 W1 W Yes ... @Bindy 1

*-Bindy Bingoandygage 7 4 0 96 67 3-1-0 W3 W @The ... Less... 3

yz-Yes We Can Bestwick 4 7 0 90 96 2-2-0 L4 L @Less... The ... 9

yz-The Recream Team Dblestx11 2 9 0 71 99 0-4-0 L5 L Bindy @Yes ... 12

Standings after replaying the season with kickers only:

Back in the real world, Jason beats Colin, 112.14-106.84

0

25

50

75

100

125

J ason

Cardinals

M. Bryant

J . WittenV. Jackson

E. Royal

L.Fitzgerald

W. Parker

R. Grant

J . Cutler

112.14

Colin

Buccaneers

M. Crosby

J . CarlsonD. Henderson

R. Wayne

S. Moss

J . Addai

R. Brown

D. Brees

106.84

PointsHighlights

• Huge win for Jason to stay in contention

- Big days from Ryan Grant and Larry Fitz put him over the top

• Cloin’s deadline acquisition, Joseph Addai, has huge day

- But it’s not enough for the win, as paltry WR production dooms him

• Ho-hum performances from two otherwise high-flying QBs

• Marcus Crosby outkicks Matt Bryant, 16-13

Back in the real world, Jason beats Colin, 112.14-106.84

0

25

50

75

100

125

J ason

Cardinals

M. Bryant

J . WittenV. Jackson

E. Royal

L.Fitzgerald

W. Parker

R. Grant

J . Cutler

112.14

Colin

Buccaneers

M. Crosby

J . CarlsonD. Henderson

R. Wayne

S. Moss

J . Addai

R. Brown

D. Brees

106.84

PointsHighlights

Tommy = 3-2

• Huge win for Jason to stay in contention

- Big days from Ryan Grant and Larry Fitz put him over the top

• Cloin’s deadline acquisition, Joseph Addai, has huge day

- But it’s not enough for the win, as paltry WR production dooms him

• Ho-hum performances from two otherwise high-flying QBs

• Marcus Crosby outkicks Matt Bryant, 16-13

Agenda







• SURPRISE INTERLUDE: Japan


• Conclusions

Japan

Hokkaido

Aomori

IwateAkita

Miyagi

Yamagata

Fukushima

Niigata

Ibaraki

Chiba

KanagawaTokyo

Shizuoka

Ishikawa

TochigiNagano

Gunma

Gifu

AichiYamanashi

Toyama

Fukui

Mie

Wakayama

Shiga

Kyoto

Nara

Osaka

Hyogo

Tottori

Okayama

Shimane

HiroshimaYamaguchi

KochiTokushima

KagawaEhimeOhita

FukuokaSaga

Nagasaki

Miyazaki

Kumamoto

Kagoshima

Saitama

Agenda








• Conclusions

Matchup profile: Aggressor versus victim

Less Than Will Endowed Yes We Can

Sign of zodiac

Aquarius Aries


12% 30%

Playoff contender?

Strengths Lack of filter Awesomeness

Weaknesses DecisivenessHe carestoo much

Key question

Why is he humping my leg? How does he survive daily life?

“The Former Tony Fasano Era”(3.9 points/game)

“The Tony Fasano Era”

(10.8 points/game)

Tony Fasano update: some kind of era this is

0

5

10

15

20

Anthony Fasano points

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Week

Even at zero points per game, worth it to torment Tommy

This matchup may not have been the biggest blowout of the season, but it was close

Week Winner Loser Score Margin

1 10 Charlie Roger 146-82.76 63.24

2 2 Elliot Roger 155.54-97 62.76

3 2 Bestwick Dylan 114.76-52 58.54

4 2 Jason Charles 144.8-90.44 54.36

5 11 Will Bestwick 111.96-59.28 52.68

Week Winner Loser ScoreMultipl

e

1 2 Bestwick Dylan 114.76-52 2.2x

2 11 Will Bestwick 111.96-59.28 1.9x

3 6 Elliot Dylan 110.54-60.24 1.8x

4 10 Charlie Roger 146-82.76 1.8x

5 4 Tommy Max Jan 115.68-68.4 1.7x

By margin of victory:

By multiple:

Similar cast of

characters involved in

a lot of blowouts

Will wins, 111.96-59.28

0

25

50

75

100

125

Will

B. J acobs

S. Holmes

D. McNabb

M. Barber

P. Burress

S.Gostkowski

Eagles

K. Walter

C. Cooley

111.96

Bestwick

L. WhiteB. Stokley

A. Rodgers

A. Peterson

R. LongwellBears

N. Washington

D. Mason

59.28

PointsHighlights

• Well balanced attack for Will- Five players in double digits- Every player above 6 points- Eagles sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick

eight times! Message to Fitzy: don’t let the

bastards get you down

• Defending champs, demoralized by fire sale, roll over and die

Will wins, 111.96-59.28

0

25

50

75

100

125

Will

B. J acobs

S. Holmes

D. McNabb

M. Barber

P. Burress

S.Gostkowski

Eagles

K. Walter

C. Cooley

111.96

Bestwick

L. WhiteB. Stokley

A. Rodgers

A. Peterson

R. LongwellBears

N. Washington

D. Mason

59.28

PointsHighlights

Tommy = 4-2

• Well balanced attack for Will- Five players in double digits- Every player above 6 points- Eagles sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick

eight times! Message to Fitzy: don’t let the

bastards get you down

• Defending champs, demoralized by fire sale, roll over and die

Agenda








• Conclusions

Tommy’s season record is:

Tommy’s season record is:

36-30

Final thoughts, via Deadspin

week 11 summary

Sports

roger beats max

max beats roger

storied history week

tommy beats charlie

agenda quick recap of

defeats purple panties

lengtime defeats charles

recream team t