website slide deck - nd pipeline authority · 2014-04-01 · website slide deck north dakota...

Website Slide Deck North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Justin J. Kringstad April 1, 2014

Understanding production potential

Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints

Understanding current and future market conditions

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Crude Oil

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Crude Oil


ND Drilling Stats


Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD

Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.

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Crude Oil





Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the

Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the

Williston Basin

*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines

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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines


210,000 BOPD

68,000 BOPD

160,000 BOPD

145,000 BOPD

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Oil Loading Rail Facilities


January 2014

Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation

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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes


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Crude Oil Gathering

Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the

Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the

Williston Basin

*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines

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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline

Sep 2012 Estimates – Some data incomplete or unavailable

All ND Production

ND Crude Oil Gathering



Sep 2013 Estimates Some data incomplete or unavailable

All ND Production

ND Oil Gathering



Sep 2013 Estimates Some data incomplete or unavailable

All ND Production

ND Oil Gathering


41% 59% 20%

80%

31% 69%

48% 52%

54% 46%

42% 58%

9%

91%

41% 59%

22%

78%

100%

100%

36% 64%

100%

14%

86%

3%

97%

~250 Additional Truckloads Per Day


Year-Over-Year Oil Gathering Changes*

*Best available estimate. Some data incomplete or missing


Estimated YOY Daily Truckload Change

Sep 2012 to Sep 2013 Assumes - 225 bbls/truck


Estimated YOY Oil Gathering Change

Sep 2012 to Sep 2013


Closer Look at Gathering Type

Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data

Crude Oil





US Refining Infrastructure


$106.38

$95.99

$84.53 $78.98

$100.76

EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost

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Major Pipelines and Refining Centers


$106.38

$95.99

$84.53

$78.98

$100.76


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Major Rail Lines and Refineries


$106.38

$95.99

$84.53 $78.98

$100.76


Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD



Simple Terms Blue – Lack of pipelines Orange – Challenges on existing infrastructure

GREEN – % of gas captured and sold Blue – % flared from zero sales wells Orange – % flared from wells with at least one mcf sold.

January 2014 Data – Non-Confidential Wells Statewide

Solving the Flaring Challenge


*Hess Tioga Gas Plant shut-in for 140 MMCFD expansion starting in November

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Capturing the 18% Faster Well Connections


*Weather Related & Gas

Plant Shutdown

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ND Gas Gathering Statistics


Weather Related & Gas

Plant Shutdown

North Dakota Natural Gas Production Forecast



ND Gas Transmission and Processing


Raw Natural Gas

(1500+ BTU) Processing Plant

Consumer Quality Dry Natural Gas

Methane

NGL’S (8-12 gpm)

Y-Grade or Fractionated

Ethane

41.64%

Propane

28.33%

Butane

16.53%

Natural Gasoline

13.51%

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*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study

Rich Natural Gas


ND Gas Plant NGL Production


North Dakota NGL Potential

Assumptions

• No Flaring

• 8 Gal/MCF

• All liquids extracted


Case 1: ND NGL Potential*

*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study

41.64%

28.33%

6.98% 9.55%

13.51%


Moving Future NGL Volumes

Transportation Options

• Trucking Regionally

• Rail Transportation

• Vantage Pipeline (Ethane)

• ONEOK Bakken Pipeline (Y-Grade)

• Alliance Pipeline (Rich Gas)

• New Pipeline Infrastructure??


NGL Pipeline Transportation


Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority

600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840

Phone: (701)220-6227

Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: [email protected]

Websites:

www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com


Contact Information

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http://www.pipeline.nd.gov/

http://www.ndpipelines.wordpress.com/

website slide deck - nd pipeline authority · 2014-04-01 · website slide deck north dakota...

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