weather model development for aviation
DESCRIPTION
Weather Model Development for Aviation . Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt : Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO Stan/Steve: Lead/Expert - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Weather Model Development for Aviation Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt: Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO Stan/Steve: Lead/Expert Model Development and Enhancement Product Development Team, AWRP/FAA
12h NOAA HRRR model forecastValid 03z
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 1Aviation Model Development
Observed radar03z June 30 2012
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An Important Pinpoint Prediction Challenge: The 29 June 2012 Mid-Atlantic Derecho
A fast-moving damaging wind event…
700 mile long swath of damage, 5 million without
power, 22 fatalities
2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MID11 AM
StartHRRRrun
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Computer weather modeling:What is the potential?
HRRR 2012 derecho loop
Observed radar HRRR forecast initialized 15z (11am Eastern Time)
29 June 2012 – Mid-Atlantic/DC thunderstorm/derecho event
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Computer weather modeling:How is it done?
4
Weather computer
model:Solve physics
equations at many points repeatedly to mimic time-
evolution of 3-D of temperature, wind, moisture,
clouds, etc.
1800 points
1060
poi
nts
Model Terrain
1800 x 1060 pointsx 50 levels
= 95,000,000 3-d points every 20 seconds
50- levels
Model Equations
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NOAA Next-Generation Model Development
RAP
HRRR
RAP - Rapid Refresh – NOAA “situational awareness” model
for high impact weather– New 18-hour forecast each hour– NOAA operational – 1 May 2012– Hourly use by National Weather
Service, Storm Prediction Center, FAA, private sector
HRRR – High-ResolutionRapid Refresh
- Next-generation storm/energy/aviation guidance
- New 15-h forecast each hour- Real-time experimental on ESRL
supercomputer- Open ftp access
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RAP and HRRR data assimilation
6
RAP
Data Assimilation cycle
Observations
Hourly cycling model
HRRR
EnKF-Hybrid +Radar andCloud anx Radar and
Cloud anx+ 3DVAR
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Operational Prediction Process
Observations
ObjectiveAnalysis(adjust background)
ModelPrediction
AnalysisUpdate Cycle
HumanForecaster
Statistical post-processing
(downscaling, probability)
Data Assimilation
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HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesRapid updating – Why do it?
Betterforecasts
6 AM time9 AM noon 3 PM 6 PM
12-h fcst
Truth
12-h update to previous forecast
More frequentmodel updateswith newer obs
Smaller adjustments
9-h fcst
6-h fcst
3-h fcst
3-h update to previous forecast
Next forecast
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Benefits of Rapid Cycling NWPRapid update cycling with latest observations
improves short-range forecasts (including upper-level winds)
RUC jet-level (35 kft) wind forecast errors
3-h fcstwind errors
6-h fcstwind errors
12-h fcst wind errors
LAX
ORD
LAX
ORD
LAX
ORD
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 12 July 2012 9Aviation Model DevelopmentNOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 9Aviation Model Development
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RAP error reduction to 1-h forecast
1h 3 6 1218h
Rapid RefreshWind forecastaccuracy vs.
forecast length
The Rapid Refresh is able to use recent obs to improve forecast skill down to 1-h projection
1 Jan - 7 Mar 2012- Verification against weather balloon data
NCEP Production Suite Review 4-5 December 2012Rapid Refresh / HRRR 10NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 10Aviation Model Development
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Rapid RefreshHourly Update Cycle
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
1-hrfcst
11 12 13Time (UTC)
AnalysisFields
3DVAR
Obs
3DVAR
Obs
Back-groundFields
Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/dayCycle hydrometeorsFully cycle all land-sfc fields(soil temp, moisture, snow)
Hourly Observations RAP 2013 N. Amer
Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) 120
Profiler – NOAA Network (V) 21
Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv) 25
Radar – VAD (V) 125
Radar reflectivity - CONUS 1km
Lightning (proxy reflectivity) NLDN, GLD360
Aircraft (V,T) 2-15K
Aircraft - WVSS (RH) 0-800
Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) 2200- 2500
Buoys/ships (V, ps) 200-400
Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps) flagged
GOES AMVs (V) 2000- 4000
AMSU/HIRS/MHS radiances Used
GOES cloud-top press/temp 13km
GPS – Precipitable water 260
WindSat scatterometer 2-10K
Nacelle/Tower/Sodar 20/100/10
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Observations assimilated in hourly updated models (Rapid Refresh)- All used to initialize 3km HRRR
Radar reflectivity
12
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HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHigh Resolution – Why do we need it?
RAPHRRR
Thunderstorm~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms
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HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR MilestonesHigh Resolution – Why do we need it?
RAPHRRR
Thunderstorm~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms
~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms
…but 4x resolution costs 64x computer power
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13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast
13-kmResolution
ParameterizedConvection
3-kmResolution
ExplicitConvection
5 PM EDTobserved
07 June 2012NO
STORM STRUCTURE
NO ESTIMATE OFSTORM
PERMEABILITY
ACCURATESTORM
STRUCTURE
ACCURATE ESTIMATEOF STORM
PERMABILITY
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones3-km HRRR – what it gets you...
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Radar Obs06:00z
18 May 201305z + 1 hour
Radar data assimilation: Getting storms in the right places
1-hr fcstradar DA(13-km and 3-
km)
1-hr fcstNO radar DA
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• Run model backwards in time (reversible processes only)• Run model forward in time (heating from radar observations) • Digital filter after backward and forward step
Forward integration,full physics with obs-based latent heating
-20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min
RAP / HRRR model forecast
Backwards integration, no physics
Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation
17
Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP and HRRR
NO backward step or filter for HRRR
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00z init00z 12 Aug
2011
Convergence Cross-Section
RAPHRRR
RADARRAP
HRRRno radar
Rapid convective spin-up with radar data
Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP
Reflectivity
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+1 hr fcst01z 12 Aug
2011
Convergence Cross-Section
RAPHRRR
RADARRAP
HRRRno radar
Rapid convective spin-up with radar data
Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP
Reflectivity
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Cloud and Hydrometeor Analysis
Hydrometeor designation from radar
Adjust cycled explicit cloud fields using METAR and
satellite data
YES HM
29th Conf on EIPT (IIPS) 08 January 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 20NOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 20Aviation Model Development
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Observations
Data Assimilation Cycle
Rapid cyclingNWP
Data Assimilation and Rapid Cycling Numerical Weather Prediction (model)
Air transportation (NextGen)
Detailed, precise short-range weather guidance needed for:
Required for improved weather guidance for:• Turbulence• Ceiling/visibility• Convective weather• Icing• Terminal/enroute weatherSafety and efficiency
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Aviation hazard forecasts – all based on RAP and HRRR models (out to 15-18h)
Hourly updated 13km Rapid Refresh model forecasts
(development supported by FAA/MDE, NOAA)
Refreshing from latest observations every hour gives better accuracy
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Subset of full domain
An example of computations needed1800x1059x50 grid points = 95 E6 grid pointsx 50,000 floating pt ops per grid point = 4.75 E12 FPA / time stepx 2160 time steps / 12h forecast = 10 E15 FPA / 12h forecast
10,000,000,000,000,000 calculations for one12h HRRR CONUS forecast
Weather computer model: Solving physics equations on many points repeatedly to provide 3-D forecast forecast of temperature, wind, moisture, clouds, etc.
1800 points
1060 points
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Model Version Initialized Forecast Length Run Time # CPUs Disk Space
RAP WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 18 hrs ~30 min 200 230 GB (per run)
HRRR WRFv3.3.1+ Hourly 15 hrs ~50 min 1128 800 GB (per run)
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points
Grid Spacing
Vertical Levels
Height Lowest Level
Pressure Top Initialized
RAP GSD,NCO
North America
758 x 567 13 km 50 8 m 10 mb Hourly
(cycled)
HRRR GSD CONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km 50 8 m 20 mb Hourly
(no-cycle)
RAP and HRRR Resources
CW Overview Meeting 12 June 2012High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 24
NOAAHigh-Performance Computer System
Number of Filesystems
Total Reserved Disk Space CPU Type Total Reserved
CPUsPerformance
Increase
Jet (current) 4 150 TB Intel Nehalem 1736 -
Zeus (new) 2 230 TB Intel Westmere 2000-4000 30%
NOAA/ESRL/GSD 12 July 2012 24Aviation Model DevelopmentNOAA/ESRL/GSD 30 Oct 2013 24Aviation Model Development