weather forecasting using mm5 in peru and new perspective for climate modeling
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Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú. Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru and new perspective for climate modeling. Yamina Silva. Using RegCM for Climate Studies. Precipitation climatology in Peru Challenge for modeling in complex terrain. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru and new perspective for climate
modeling
Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú
Yamina Silva
Using RegCM for Climate Studies
• Precipitation climatology in Peru
• Challenge for modeling in complex terrain.
• Using the models for weather prediction (MM5)
• Climate change studies for a pilot region
Lima (13 masl), annual precip. 16mm
Huayao (3,350masl)Annual precip. 756mm
Iquitos (126 masl), annual precip. 2770mm
Precipitation Climatology
1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in Piura region
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 030
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
mm
/mo
nth
Piura Tumbes Talara
El Niño 1987 El Niño 1983 El Niño 1998 El Niño 1992
Huge positive anomaly in temp. And precip. during “EL Niño" events:Agriculture (Rice, limon, cotton, etc).FisheryFloods and diseases.
Northern coast (positive rainfall anomaly)Chira-Piura basin
Challenge for modeling in complex terrain
Precipitation vs SST
Ref.: Dr. R.Woodman, 1998
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 790
50
100
150
ANGASMAYO
HUANCAVELICA
The Central Andes 500-5000 meters (negative anomaly?)
1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the central Andes
40% of electric energy of Perú is generated by a hydroelectric power plant on this river (Mantaro river).
Mantaro basin
The Altiplano of Peru 3000-4000 meters (negative anomaly)
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 030
50
100
150
200
250
300
mm
/mo
nth
Lagunillas
Juliaca
1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the Altiplano Region
Negative anomaly during El Niño events (1983, 1992)
El Titicaca basin
Some experiences with the MM5
• Weather forecasting
• Modeling some extreme events during the summer
• Simulation with high resolution domain (nesting)
• Evaluation of cumulus and PBL schemes
MM5 Version 3.3: Nesting with 3 Domains: South America: 54x54km (180x205) Perú: 18x18km (124x100) Lima: 6x6km (100x100) 60 hours forecast
Cumulus: Grell Explicit: Simple ice PBL: Gayno-Seaman
IC & BC: AVN
WS Compaq ES-40 4 CPU, 2 GB RAM 500MHz18.2 GB HD (2 HD)
ACTUAL CONFIGURATION OF MM5 RUNNING IN PERU
Precipitation forecast for the 3 domains
Pronostico del Modelo MM5
Extreme precipitation events during the 18 and 19 March of 2001(North of Peru, Piura)
24 hour precipitation (MM5, 18km resolution) 24 hour precipitation (estimated by GOES)
CPS sensibility
•GOES Estimated precipitation• (Vicente, at.al, 1998)
March 2000 September 1999
Evaluation of Grell convective scheme
5.0/)(;1
5.0/)(5.0;0
5.0/)(;1
EEM
EEM
EEM
I•GOES Estimated precipitation (Vicente, at.al, 1998)vs MM5 precipitation - 24 hours acumulated
During the intense rainy period, Grell CPS tends to overstimate the precip.
March 2000 September 1999
Grell convective scheme
CORRELACION INDEX
GRELL CPS
KUO CPS
Region March 2000 September 1999 Ecuatorial 0.79 0.09 *
Subtropical 0.45 0.61
* Is equal to 0.78 if we not consider the model values greeter then 10mm (M>10)
Region March 2000 Septembee1999 Ecuatorial 0.44 0.12
Subtropical 0.15 0.35
•Ecuatorial region: 80ºW-40ºW / 10ºS-10ºN,
•Subtropical region:80ºW-40ºW / 30ºS-10ºS.
Silva and Takahashi, 2000 (MM5 Users workshop)
What we expect of using RegCM for Climate Studies
• Climate variability, El Niño response for a regional (local) scale
• Simulate some extreme events during the rainy season
• Using RegCM for climate change studies (high resolution)=> Pilot points for studing:
1. Mantaro Basin (central Andes)2. Chira-Piura basin (northern coast)3. Titicaca basin (southern Andes)
The GCM could represent the general pattern, but not the detals, specially over the Andes
Monthly precipitation (mm/day) March 2003 (GCM CPTEC/COLA, T42)
Domain 1 for South America: 80km (90x110), 11 levels, IC-BC: CPTEC/COLA GCM, 3 months simulations (16 Feb-02 May 2003)
Precipitation rate (mm/day)March 2003 (RegCM)
Precipitation rate (mm/day)March 2003 (GOES estimated)
Domain for Peru: 30km (90x110), 11 levels, IC-BC: RegCM Domain 1 (80km), 3 months simulations (16 Feb-
02 May 2003) Precipitation rate (mm/day)
March 2003 (RegCM) Precipitation rate (mm/day)
March 2003 (GOES estimated)
Precipitation rate (mm/day)March 2003 (RegCM)
Monthly Precipitation amount (mm/month)March 2003 (Observed-DCPs )
RegCM vs Observed precipitation
Sub-project: Integrated local evaluation in the Mantaro Basin.
National project for Climate change and adaptation, supported by the government of Holland: 2003-2005
Objectives:• Interannual climate variability studies and extend it
for climate change.• Identify vulnerable areas
• Questions? If the global temperature increase?• How will change the water resources in the basin?• What could be the agricultural impact?• Social impacts, etc…
Mining region
Agricultural region
Hydroelectricstation
High resolution domain:
HOPES!: Non-Hydrostatic RegCM, with nesting, using the global model
scenarios.
Conclusion
• The climate variability studies in the regional/local scales using the numerical climate models are an important issue for Peru, and also the challenge because of the complex terrain.
• We hope that the climate change scenarios for Peru using the RegCM, will became reality and the results will help for the future national planes.
• The collaborations in the climate variability and climate changes studies are very welcome.
Many thanks!
E-mail: [email protected]
Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú