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WEATHERFORECASTINGGroup 3| Ms. Charmaine Frago | 1 st Year – St.An ela

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WEATHER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

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Conditioning• Barometric Reading• Sky Conditions• Now casting• Forecast modelling

– Analog – Ensemble

CONCLUSION

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TECHNIQUES - CONDITIONING•

Relies on current or present conditions todetermine future weather conditions.

• Validity is dependent only on a steadystate (i.e. tropical countries)

• Highly dependent on a stagnant weatherpattern (i.e. Wet and Dry Seasons).

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TECHNIQUES – BAROMETRICREADING•

Monitors change in atmospheric pressure• Based on the concept of “changes in

atmospheric pressure reflects weatherchanges”

• High variances in atmospheric pressure isreflective of the scope of changes inweather.

• Technique is more accurate in predictingweather patterns than Conditionin g orrelying in present weather conditions.

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TECHNIQUES - NOWCASTING•

Reliable for contain time forecasting (6hour blocks).

• Utilizes a combination of previoustechniques to determine weatherconditions within a certain time block.

• Example would be cloudy skies wouldindicate rain showers within the next fewhours but not indicative of weatherconditions after 24 hours.

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FORECASTING MODELS•

Analog – Utilizing current data to determine patterns

on weather changes. – Not fully reliable as data is static while

weather patterns are dynamic in nature.• Ensemble

– Math based forecasting technique utilizingthe Chaos Theory

– Is fully able to generate multiple forecastingor condition scenarios of weather patte rns fo rdeduction.

– Can be adapted to fully reflect dynamic

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CONCLUSION•

There is no single way to performweather forecasting

• Each technique would be applicable forcertain conditions

• Each technique has limitations whichwould make it unusable in certainconditions

• Each technique would complimentanother for a more accurate result inforecasting weather.

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CHAOS THEORY•

Mathematical representation to describethe behavior of dynamic systems (i.e.weather, human behavior)

• Applied to systems or patterns whichevolve over time – improvement or de-evolution.

• Application is relative to the concept thatfuture dynamics are defined by initialconditions.

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Group 3•

Angela Denise P. Salas• Yvanne Cabacugan• Matthew Villanueva