weather and climate services for pinga oya
DESCRIPTION
Weather and Climate Services for Pinga Oya. Lareef Zubair, Zeenas Yahiya, Sewwandhdhi Chandrasekera, Prabodha Agalawatte, Dumindu Herath, Michael Bell Foundation for Environment, Climate and Technology, Digana and International Research Institute for Climate and Society, . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Weather and Climate Services for Pinga Oya
Lareef Zubair, Zeenas Yahiya, Sewwandhdhi Chandrasekera, Prabodha Agalawatte, Dumindu
Herath, Michael BellFoundation for Environment, Climate and
Technology, Digana and International Research Institute for Climate and
Society,
Baseline Climatologies• 284 rainfall stations for 1960-2000 was used to create a
gridded dataset.
Climatologies
RainfallMean Std. Dev.
Temperature
Solar Radiation
WindspeedNortherlyEasterly
Cyclone risk
Flood riskWestern slopesEastern Slopes
Malaria
Dengue
Landslide Risk
RainfallMean Std. Dev.
Temperature
Solar Radiation
Wind speedNortherlyEasterly
Cyclone risk
Flood riskWestern slopesEastern slopes
Landslide Risk
Malaria
Dengue
Rice
Fine-scale Analysis• Top Row
– Population– Vulnerability– Flood Incidence – Flood Hazard
• Middle Row– Drought Incidence – Drought Hazard– Landslide Incidence – Landslide Hazard
• Bottom Row– Cyclone Incidence – Cyclone Hazard– Multi-hazard Analysis
.
5
Wind and Rainfall Climatology over Southern Asia
• Reversal in Wind Direction
Over SL– NE – Nov-Mar– W – May to
Sep• Migration of rain
bandsOver SL– Yala rains
(MJJ)– Maha rains
(OND)
W-E Cross-Section
0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 00
5 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 5 0 0
2 0 0 02000
1500
500
108
Distance from East to West (km)
Sita Eliya
Altitu
de (
m a
.s.l.
)
1000
0
0 226
Potuvil
Orographic Rainfall Model
• Orography and Lorentizian - >
• Observations ->
• Model ->
Rainfall in Lanka (July and Jan)
Our Mountains
Topography – Pinga Oya and Northern Hill Country
Monthly Rainfall Climatology around Kandy
Top – Peradeniya (1944 – 1985)Middle – Katugastota (1944 – 1985)Bottom – Rajawella ( 1944-1983)
Below – Temperature Climatology - Katugastota
Kandy Rainfall and Temperature 1866-1992
Top – Rainfall
Bottom - Temperature
Quality Control of Data
y = -0.0005x + 25.67
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year
Tem
pera
ture
(C)
Kandy-Actual Kandy-Reference Linear (Kandy-Actual)
y = 0.0055x + 13.665
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Year
Tem
pera
ture
(C)
Kandy-Observed Kandy-Adjusted Linear (Kandy-Adjusted)
Monitoring
Satellite Rainfall Monitoring for Akurana DSD
Top – Left: Dekadal RainfallTop- Right: Comparsion with Average – Blue Excess, Brown Deficit
Bottom- Left: - Rainfall Comparison last 6 years
Bottom Right – Cumulative Deficit over last 365 days
Downloaded: Feb 19, 2013
Intra-seasonal PredictionsPaul Roundy, SUNY Albany
Rainfall at Katugastota and Katugastota
Land Surface Prediction: Accurate land model prediction based on water and energy balance.Input - Output = Storage ChangeP + Gin –(Q + ET + Gout) = ΔSRn - G = Le + H
Land Surface Modeling, slide courtesy NASA GSFC
Overland Flow
Subsurface Flow
Total Flow
ET and Precip
Infiltration
Source Area
Soil
Canopy
rsoil
rararcrdrsurf
rplant
EHea
e*(Ts)MPr
ABL
Catchment Model (Koster et al., 2000): Models in catchment space rather than on grids.Uses Topmodel concepts to model groundwater
Discharge Conditioned on Indian Ocean
Drought Tendency in the Last 50 years in North, East, South and West
Annual Rainfall and Regionalization
Dengue In Kandy
Mahaweli River Basin Projects January 2000 onwards
http://iri.columbia.edu/~mahaweli [email protected] http://www.climate.lk
Pollutant Transport