weak signals

Weak Signals…for whom - at what time?

First they ignore you…

29.05.2009Weak Signals Miriam Leis2

Weak Signal Scanning

Theory, Background, Findings…


Three examples of topics that are now gaining relevance

Human Enhancement Technologies

• Gaining interest within EU politics/STOA, US government, policy advise (Rathenau Institute, ITAS/FZK, TNO) and already parts of the industry

Synthetic Biology

• Gaining interest within EC, industry (e.g. Craig Venter) and with students (DIY biology)

Donation-based research funding

• (Funds for research projects are based on donation and voluntary work and the projects are conducted within specific communities)

In a way all are related


Three examples of topics that are now gaining relevance

Are the issues new?Except for the donation-based research funding – No!

Are the issues relevant?If successful, yes!

Have there been earlier indications for the developments?Yes!

Have these earlier indicators been taken serious?Not really…

Have we missed some weak signals in the past?Maybe…


Example: Human Enhancement Technologies and related issues

2004

2008

1957

1988

1991

1970

1978

2000

2002

Julian Huxley(transhumanism)

BCI researchbegins

ExI

STOA onHET

CTEKS(Europe)

US NBIC reportFukuyama

Bill Joy

OscarPistorius

1998

WTA Human BCICochlearImplant

Ritalin & Co. HGP

ExI goesInternet

FictionTheoryWeak

SciencePracticeStrong

Insider/Closed CommunitiesGovernments

Early GeneralPublic

Community PR Press

…ignore you …laugh at you

PIGD hESC

Dolly

…fight you …you win

weak(!!!) signal??? weak(!) signal?? weak signal? weak(?) signal (!) (weak) signal!

1953

Double Helix

Singularity University


When will the signal become relevant?

2004

2008

1957

1988

1991

1970

1978

2000

2002

Julian Huxley(transhumanism)

BCI researchbegins

ExI

STOA onHET

CTEKS(Europe)

US NBIC reportFukuyama

Bill Joy

OscarPistorius

1998

WTA Human BCICochlearImplant

Ritalin & Co. HGP

ExI goesInternet

PIGD hESC

Dolly

1953

Double Helix

Futurist communitieshad a faint idea…

Futurist communities triedto push the issue(help: internet!)

Policy-makers discovered relevance

WS1

Futurist communities sawevidence piling up

Critical mass WS2

Critics picked upthe issue and initiated open debates

…ignore you …laugh at you …fight you …you win

Singularity University


How come?

The groups who discussed the issue quite early were initially closedcommunities… (ignored – not known)

As the groups tried to bring the issue to the public, the ideas and groupswere not taken seriously… (laughed at – too visionary )

As scientific evidence for the (future) feasibility of HET began to show,the groups were on the ‘wrong side’… (fought – have we missed something?) we want to avoid missing things

Now they are integrated into rational discussions(won – they know something relevant...) we tried to do this since 15 years!

research need: how do we get there?

Tim

e

weak signals! weak signals!

crucial point!


Actors, developments and coincidences…

Vision: Out of an interaction between scientific ideas and own visions and goals, some people developed a “selective perception” about scientific and societal developments (emerging technologies, state and religion…)Ideas – selective perception – scenario thinking

External circumstances:As scientific development progressed, indications piled up and were interpreted as indicators (weak signals?) for the envisioned development and used to gain credibilityIndependent scientific and technological developments – interpretation – foresight thinking

Agenda-setting:The ideas were pushed and co-incided with observable technological developments thatwere interpreted that they could lead to the envisioned developments (e.g. HET) and offeredto the publicInternet – funding – relations to the press – sensation seeking – social climate Context of environmentalism

Interpretation goes mainstream:This interpretation is taken up by the press and slowly enters the mainstreamCritics – intellectuals - philosophers – press/media – policy-makers


What do you need to discover the stuff?

• Access to respective (semi-closed) communities• Knowledge about the real science behind it (vision assessment) and development-tracking• Scenario skills (where could it lead to?)• Open mindedness • Selective perception• No fear about the “they laugh at you” phase (here many “visionaries” exist)

…???


Discussion – Weak Signal Candidates <Impact 1-5, evidence: 1-5>

Signal Weakness?(when did I discover it)

Potential change Impact/evidence(my estimation)

21.12.2012 (?) first heard around 2003getting dense: 2009

cults, religion i: 3, e: 1

Atheism gaining ground

increasing from mid 1990s to 2009

religion vs. non-religion (biopolitics)

i: 3, e: 3

Transhumanism 1990s*Public: around 2000

Gaining relevance as societal dimension

i: 3, e: 4

Neurotechnology as futurist: mid 1990s*public: 2000s

engineering the human mind

i: 4, e: 3

BMI/BCI around 2003 engineering the human mind

i: 4, e: 3

HET as futurist: mid 1980* public: around 2002

future humankind? i: 4, e: 3

* only superficially in books and print media due to insufficient data access (no or limited internet)





AI/AGI first heard mid 1980s*AGI: around 2005

Human-machine co-operation

i: 4, e: 2

Non-industrial robots (military, SAYA)

evidence: late 1990s Human-machine co-operation

i: 4, e: 3

Cheap low integrated chips

evidence: 2008 bridging the digital divide

i: 3, e: 3






DIY biology(currency etc.)

2007/2008 biology/economy i: 4, e: 3

Synthetic biology AL mid 1980s*discussions: around 2004evidence: around 2006

biology/economy i: 4, e: 3

RepRap Visions: mid 1980s*around 2006

New economic logic (vision: post scarcity)

i: 4, e: 3

Open Source 2004??? New economic logic (vision: post scarcity)

i: 3, e: 4

donation-based science funding

consulting: around 2000sscience: around 2006(larger projects)

new research opportunities, non-mainstream research

i: 4, e: 2



Discussion – Weak Signal Candidates

Entries added by others:

• Wireless controlled beetle (Neurotech)• Open documents (DIY/open source)• China IPR (related to new economic logic)• Nanotube fuel cells (environment)• Aerosol research for climate (environment)


…and what are “hard-core” futurists talking about now?

Technological feasibility and ELSI/philosophy about:

Gaining• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)/ greater-than-human AI• Neuro/Brain simulation (of individuals)• Post scarcity society• DIY science• Biopolitical conflicts 2.0• Existential technology risks• Radical life-extension/”immortality”• Technological singularity

Fading• Cyborg HET• Genetic engineering• Embryonic stem cell research• Biopolitical conflicts 1.0 (“bioconservatives”)• Robotics


Ray Kurzweil, Chancellor, Singularity University“We are now in the steep part of the exponential trajectory of information technologies in a broad variety of fields, including health, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence. It is only these accelerating technologies that have the scale to address the major challenges of humanity ranging from energy and the environment to disease and poverty. With its strong focus on interdisciplinary learning, Singularity University is poised to foster the leaders who will create a uniquely creative and productive future world.”

Peter Diamandis*, Vice-Chancellor, Singularity University“We are reaching out across the globe to gather the smartest and most passionate future leaders and arm them with the tools and network they need to wrestle with the Grand Challenges of our day. There is no existing program that will offer the breadth and intensity that SU will offer. During the year, between the Graduate Summer Programs, SU will offer a unique 3-day and 10-day program for CEOs and executives that will give them the forward looking radar they need to determine how these key technologies might transform their companies and industries in the next 5 - 10 years ahead.”

* Founder of the X-Prize

thank you for your attention

weak signals

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