we need more babies time 2004 copy

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Time We need more babies 1

We Need More Babies!

The Continent's plummeting fertility rate is a time bomb, threateningeconomic growth and social welfare. But what can goernments do aboutit "ow states are trying to get people to hae more #ids

B$ %&M( )*&++ -&*(

When Ester Blandford was born, 18 months ago, the Swedish state did all it could to ease

her way into the world — and encourage her parents to have even more kids !er mother,

"herese, #$, a children%s librarian in the small southern town of &yhamnsl'ge, took 1(months off work, most of it at 8)* pay, to care for the baby, her first child She now

works part+time Ester%s dad, hristian, also #$, a physical therapist, stays home one day a

week to help out !e too gets 8)* pay from the state for the day spent with his daughter

-f Ester is sick, her father or mother can stay at home for up to a total of 1#) days a yearto look after her — their lost wages are paid by the state "herese and hristian would

like four children and can look forward to increasing child allowances — from .1)( per

month for Ester to .1$) for &o / — if they get that far 0or "herese, it also helps toknow her ob will be waiting for her when she returns to the workforce 2- know - can

come back to my ob and get my old responsibilities back,2 she says 2-%m not

discriminated against because - raise children2

3ll that costly government support has helped boost Sweden%s fertility rate from a paltry

1( children per woman in 1$$$ to 141 last year — but that%s still not enough to keep the

Swedish population from declining without immigration 3nd Sweden is a success story-n much of Europe, fertility rates have plummeted over the past few decades Western

European women were having an average of #/ children each in 1$4) But as women

pursued higher education, increased their role in the workforce and started having babies

later, that figure has fallen to 1( last year -n the newer member states of entral andEastern Europe, the drop+off has been even deeper "hat means that the population of the

E5 — plus candidate countries Bulgaria and 6omania, e7pected to oin by #))4 —could drop from /8# million today to /(/ million by #)() -n the same period, the E5%s

working age population is proected to drop by 18* while the number of those aged ( or

more will soar by )*

!ospital maternity wards already stand empty in parts of 9atvia and Slovakia, and

schools are closing in eastern :ermany for lack of pupils :ermany, in fact, is

e7periencing such a birth dearth that its population could crash from 8# million to #/million by the end of the century -f the trend continues, former ;utch <rime =inister

Wim >ok suggested in a report to the European ouncil earlier this month, within ageneration spiraling pension and health costs will bust European state budgets — andcripple the ontinent%s economic growth rate

9ike Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors, Britain, -reland, 0rance and the &etherlands are faring relatively well, with fertility rates above 14 ?et nowhere in the

European 5nion does fertility approach #1, the level needed to keep the population

stable 23 people that doesn%t have children, that grows old, is a people without a future,2




says "i@iano "reu, a former -talian =inister of 9abor and Welfare who recently co+

authored a bill aimed at boosting -taly%s rock+bottom birth rate of 1#$

"he problem has been looming for decades, and governments have responded with

schemes to reform pension programs, raise retirement ages, increase labor participation

rates and encourage the immigration of skilled workers But politicians have been more bashful when it comes to urging people to have more babies 9ow birth rates 2will have a

maor impact on Europe%s economic future,2 says Aonathan :rant, director of independent

thinktank 63&; Europe%s ambridge office and principal author of a study of Europeanfertility released last year 2But there%s a disconnect between the cycle of political

elections and the generational cycle of demographics "hat%s one reason politicians

haven%t been willing to e7pend a lot of political capital in addressing it2

-t%s not the only reason politicians have been leery -n :ermany, -taly and Spain,

nationalist or fascist regimes often glorified childbirth as a boon to the race -n many

of entral Europe%s nations, fertility rates have imploded in the past 1( years because

many young adults worry that having kids would make them fall behind in theirincreasingly competitive post+ommunist societies "hese days, asking people to bear

children for the fatherland is only slightly less offensive than asking them to die for it

But the fertility crisis has reached such a dire pass that politicians are beginning to speak

out -n a letter to their E5 colleagues last month, 0rench <resident Aacues hirac,:erman hancellor :erhard SchrCder and <rime =inisters AosD 9uis 6odrgue@ Fapatero

of Spain and :Cran <ersson of Sweden urged the 5nion to 2take new action to sustain

Europe%s demography and better reconcile professional, personal and family life with the

aim of permitting couples to have as many babies as they want2

6on 9esthaeghe, a demographer at the 0ree 5niversity of Brussels GH5BI, is happy that

the taboo has been broken, but he says, 2-t%s still too little, too late2 -mmigration has sofar staved off population shrinkage in countries like :ermany, where death rates already

e7ceed birth rates, but even at numbers far beyond current levels it will have scant

influence on the long+term balance among generations 3fter all, immigrants get old, tooGand their birth rates decline within a generation of moving to EuropeI 9est+haeghe

warns that there%s no uick fi7 2We need to get back to two children per family,2 he says

2But even if we were able to do that, our population would continue to decline for

decades because we%ve got an old population, and that means a higher death rate2

9ast year%s 63&; study found that countries that invest in policies to make it easier to

have and raise children tend to have higher fertility rates than those that don%t "he paradee7ample is 0rance, which after -reland has the highest rate in Europe, 18$ 20rance has

always had a strong family policy,2 says demographer =arie+"hDrJse 9etablier of the

enter for Employment Studies near <aris -n its present form, that means women bearing their first child get a paid and ob+protected maternity leave of 1 weeks as well

as a palette of allowances to help out with everything from education to housing to

transportationK the benefits increase steeply for the third child <artly as a result of

policies like these, 0rance had a net natural gain in population last year of #11,))), while




the E5 as a whole only had a net natural gain of #)),))), not including immigration

-f the e7perience of 0rance suggests that spending pays, -reland — where the fertility ratewas 1$8 last year, the E5%s highest — shows it might not be that simple 2-reland is not

a child+friendly place,2 says Aohn 0it@:erald, an economics professor at the Economic

and Social 6esearch -nstitute in ;ublin 2hild care is underdeveloped and e7pensive3nd if women take time out from the labor force to have children, they are discriminated

against in the workplace2 -f it wasn%t for the high level of births to unmarried mothers,

-reland%s fertility rate would be in trouble, says sociologist "ony 0ahey 2-n 1$8), ust (*of births were to single mothersK now 1 in L2 kids are born out of wedlock, he says "he

atholic hurch played a role in that change -n the 1$4)s and %8)s, it decided that having

children outside of marriage was a lesser evil than abortion 2-nstead of berating women,

they became very supportive of unmarried mothers,2 0ahey says

9ow fertility rates in -taly and Spain, also 1#$, spring from high youth unemployment,

the prevalence of short+term work contracts, a chronic shortage of affordable housing for

young people — and a bias in the workplace against women who interrupt their careers tohave kids Barbara avuto, L(, a 6ome manager at an employment services company

who%s eight months pregnant with her first child, says combining family and career stilldoesn%t seem like a realistic possibility for -talian women 2"urning L( is ust about the

limit beyond which it becomes more difficult to have and raise children,2 she says 2=y

company is not uncaring, but in -taly you%re either seen as ambitious or not 3nd having achild is seen as a sign that you%re not2

3mid all the bad news, there are positive signs 0or one, European ommission studies

suggest that throughout Europe, women say they would like to have more children thanthey do Mne way to make that possible is to ensure that the goals of career and

parenthood are compatible "hat seems to have been accomplished in places like Sweden,

where women%s participation in the labor force is high and so is fertility -t%s an e7pensivesolution — critics might call it a parenthood bribe — since the government pays for

maternity and paternity leave, health care and education benefits 3nd it%s a level of social

spending some say Europe can no longer afford But the alternative — too few young people to take care of the old — may be even costlier -n Spain, Fapatero is hoping to

push his country in the Scandinavian direction by urging companies to set up child+care

facilities, subsidi@ing university fees and promoting long+term employment over short+

term contracts =ore generous policies like those of 0rance and Scandinavia wouldreuire higher ta7es, a trade+off many European governments aren%t willing to make

2What we need is a good cocktail,2 says 9esthaeghe, 2more policies aimed at promotingfle7ibility between work and home — day+care centers, early schooling, fle7 time — but

also a doubling of immigration rates and higher participation in the labor market for older

people and women2 But unless it becomes more palatable, affordable and evenfashionable for families to consist of two or more children again, Europe risks becoming

an Mld World in the worst sense of the term James Graaf Time Magazine 21 November 2004

we need more babies time 2004 copy

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