Water Supply & DemandCommitteeWRDC Report 4/15/2011

Co-Chairs: Leslie Meyers (USBOR) & Ron Doba (NAMWUA)Subcommittee Chairs: Christine Nuñez, Lyn White, Cliff Cauthen, Tim SkarupaInter Tribal Council Liaison: Norm DeWeaverADWR Staff Liaisons: Frank Corkhill, Don Gross, Dianne Yunker, Michael Johnson, Laura Grignano, Gerry Wildeman

WS&D Committee Organization

The Municipal Subcommittee work (draft) is complete.

Projections are based on GPCDs calculated from Atlas and population committee data.

The mid-population projection is used for the purpose of projecting future water demands.

The final draft report is posted on the DocuShare site.

Municipal Subcommittee

Municipal Projections

BASIN NAME BASELINE2005 2010 2035 2060 2110 (CS) 2110 (AS)

AGUA FRIA 1,800 1,931 2,888 3,471 4,800 64,732 ARAVAIPA CANYON 14 11 12 14 19 93 BIG SANDY 271 312 496 619 856 3,149 BILL WILLIAMS 1,250 1,253 1,564 1,790 2,505 8,431 BONITA CREEK - 4 5 6 8 332 BUTLER VALLEY 3 - - - - - CIENEGA CREEK 600 636 918 1,123 1,552 1,341 COCONINO PLATEAU 1,173 1,142 1,521 1,827 2,526 2,919 DETRITAL VALLEY 309 256 397 494 682 919 DONNELLY WASH 19 - - - 811 811 DOUGLAS 5,300 5,659 7,633 9,043 12,503 11,873 DRIPPING SPRINGS WASH 11 13 14 16 22 542 DUNCAN VALLEY 550 532 546 635 878 942 GILA BEND 750 339 1,332 1,672 2,312 21,922 GRAND WASH 2 - - - - 77 HARQUAHALA INA 128 131 245 354 652 4,576 HUALAPAI VALLEY 9,100 9,481 14,595 18,122 25,056 22,824 KANAB PLATEAU 2,500 2,481 3,885 4,852 6,708 7,651 LAKE HAVASU 16,070 18,531 31,036 39,425 54,511 54,153 LAKE MOHAVE 21,920 24,481 36,384 44,715 61,825 58,124

Municipal DemandsPROJECTED DEMANDS

2010 Census Data

2010 Census Data

2010 Census6,392,017 (4% lower

than anticipated)• Immigration laws• Recession• Communities over

estimating growth

2010 Census Split population data used by WS&D Committee to establish demand

Low – 6,589,080Med – 6,628,757High – 6,685,863

The Agricultural Subcommittee work (draft) is complete.

The projections “flat line” with the exception of the AMAs, Yuma and Lower Gila basins.

Dairy and feedlot projections completed and provided to Industrial Subcommittee.

The projection spreadsheets are posted on the DocuShare site.

Agricultural Subcommittee

Agricultural Projections

The Industrial Subcommittee work (draft) is complete.

Includes dairy and feedlot projections from the Agriculture Subcommittee (dairies relocated, new pig feeder).

Projections are provided as low and high for each time period, causing total demand projections to follow.

Reports from individual sectors are posted on the DocuShare site.

Industrial Subcommittee

Industrial Projections

Demand Projections

Demand Projections

Water Atlas includes tribal water estimates. Some tribes have indicated they had little

input and the Atlas may not correctly represent populations and water use.

Inter Tribal Council of Arizona Draft Report Projecting Tribal Water Use

identifying settlement water amounts for tribes. Draft report located on DocuShare site.

Report reviewed by Navajo, BOR, and ITC.

Tribal Water Needs

Pascua Yaqui Tribe have submitted a letter claiming a right to 3,520 AF of water in the Gila River Adjudication not previously identified.

Yavapai-Apache Nation have submitted a letter claiming a right to 6,848 AF of water in the Gila River Adjudication not previously identified.

The report from the WS&D Committee will include a table that identifies tribal water claims in each basin. Tribal water settlement amounts will be considered in the determination of future available water supplies.

Tribal Water Needs

Tribal Water Needs

Draft baseline supply determinations have been completed.

Projected supply as a result of climate change is not completed.

Conservation, additional effluent, increased groundwater pumping and water importation will be considered for future supplies and have not been determined.

Supply Subcommittee

What’s Left To Do?• Peter Culp is running the Central

Arizona Water Demand Model for the Phoenix, Tucson and Pinal AMA’s. We hope to be able to compare the results by 4/22/2011.

• Complete supply shortage projections.• Incorporate Environmental data into

WS&D report.• Identify sources of supply that can be

used to meet future demands (conservation, additional groundwater pumping, importation, etc.).

• Evaluate legal and/or technical issues with accessing identified supplies.

• Determine how basins with projected water shortages will be identified in report.

• Complete the report(s) from WS&D Committee.

Next WS&D Meeting May 2nd