water scarcity versus agricultural production a new way ... · •optimal and sustainable...
TRANSCRIPT
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
10th WSTA Gulf Water Conference, Doha, Qatar
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management
of resources under arid conditions –
Dr. Jens Grundmann
Dresden University of Technology
Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology
Co-Authors
Schütze, N.; Walther, M.; Schmitz, G.H.; Lennartz, F.; Al-Kindi, R.
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Latin AmericaBrazil
Middle EastOman
Eastern EuropeUkraine
Central AsiaMongolia
South-East AsiaVietnam
Outline
Surface and Subsur-face Water Module
AssessmentWater Resources Availability
Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios
Groundwater Module
Water Demand
AgriculturePotential and actual
water use
Irrigation ModuleTechnical SystemWater-BackboneAquifer Pumping
Artificial Recharge
Management: • optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources• operative optimal control of the technical system
Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy
APPM
Robust Simulation Tool of Water Resour-ces System (ANN)
Optimisation and Management Tool
Water supply
Water Productivity of Agriculture
Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.
Mon
itorin
g
Soci
o-ec
onom
icD
evel
opm
entSurface and Subsur-
face Water Module
AssessmentWater Resources Availability
Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios
Groundwater Module
Water Demand
AgriculturePotential and actual
water use
Irrigation ModuleTechnical SystemWater-BackboneAquifer Pumping
Artificial Recharge
Management: • optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources• operative optimal control of the technical system
Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy
APPM
Robust Simulation Tool of Water Resour-ces System (ANN)
Optimisation and Management Tool
Water supply
Water Productivity of Agriculture
Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.
Mon
itorin
g
Soci
o-ec
onom
icD
evel
opm
ent
1 Motivation & Objectives
2 A new Tool for sustainable Management of
Resources
• Structure
& Modules
• Water Resources
• Agriculture
• Management
3 Implementation
4 Summary, Conclusion
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
1 Motivation & Objectives
Batinah Region of Oman
excessive groundwater abstraction
due to irrigated agriculture
Inversion of groundwater’s natural
gradient (flow direction)
Marine saltwater intrusion
Saline irrigation water and thus –
saline soils
Destruction of agricultural resources
Decreasing farm income &
abandoned farms
impacts the food security of the
country
Saline intrusion in coastal areas
Wadis Bani Kharus, Ma‘awil, Taww
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Saline intrusion in coastal areas
Objectives
• Optimal integrated water management
and long-term planning system for
water quality and quantity
• Sustainable management of water and
soils
• Balancing water demand and
availability
• Improvement of water use efficiency in
irrigated agriculture by novel irrigation
techniques
1 Motivation & Objectives
Challenges
• Coupled dynamic agricultural - coastal
aquifer system
• Climate and global change
Wadis Bani Kharus, Ma‘awil, Taww
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
APPM
Management:• optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources • operative optimal control of the technical system
Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy
Water Demand
AgriculturePotential and actual
water use
Irrigation Module
Water Productivity of Agriculture
Surface and Subsur-face Water Module
AssessmentWater Resources Availability
Groundwater Module
Robust Simulation Tool of Water Resour-ces System (ANN)
Technical SystemWater-BackboneAquifer Pumping
Artificial Recharge
Water supply
Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios
Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.
Mo
nit
ori
ng
Soci
o-e
con
om
ic D
eve
lop
me
nt
Optimisation and Management Tool
2 A Tool for sustainable IWRM in arid RegionsStructure and Submodules
12
3
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
wadi runoff(flash floods)
sea
saltwater intrusion
extraction wellsnear the coastline
irrigated agriculture(most important)
rainfall
recharge dam for artificial ground-water recharge
infiltration
Hadjar mountain Batinah plain Coastal zone
P(x,y,t)
Aflaj(3 types)
surface runoffQi(x,y,t)
irrigated oases agriculture
Groundwater
model domain
Qgwn,m
Qin
Qa
Qw
Qinf
ET
ETET
ETR
Qp
Qw,d
Qgwn,w
Qs
QloSea losses
Qa
Qw,d
P(x,y,t)
ETR
Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Hydrological Processes -
1
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
wadi runoff(flash floods)
sea
saltwater intrusion
extraction wellsnear the coastline
irrigated agriculture(most important)
rainfall
recharge dam for artificial ground-water recharge
infiltration
Hadjar mountain Batinah plain Coastal zone
P(x,y,t)
Aflaj(3 types)
surface runoffQi(x,y,t)
irrigated oases agriculture
Groundwater
model domain
Qgwn,m
Qin
Qa
Qw
Qinf
ET
ETET
ETR
Qp
Qw,d
Qgwn,w
Qs
QloSea losses
Qa
Qw,d
P(x,y,t)
ETR
Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Modelling -
1
• Three-dimensional density driven
groundwater flow model for simulating
the aquifer behavior inclusive salt
water intrusion phenomena based on
OpenGeoSys (OGS) Kolditz et al. 2012
• Development of a hydrogeological
model of the coastal aquifer for the
pilot area
• Steady state calibration
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
wadi runoff(flash floods)
sea
saltwater intrusion
extraction wellsnear the coastline
irrigated agriculture(most important)
rainfall
recharge dam for artificial ground-water recharge
infiltration
Hadjar mountain Batinah plain Coastal zone
P(x,y,t)
Aflaj(3 types)
surface runoffQi(x,y,t)
irrigated oases agriculture
Groundwater
model domain
Qgwn,m
Qin
Qa
Qw
Qinf
ET
ETET
ETR
Qp
Qw,d
Qgwn,w
Qs
QloSea losses
Qa
Qw,d
P(x,y,t)
ETR
Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Recharge -
1
Q(t)
t
Q(t)
t
Dam inflow
Dam outflow
Q(t)
tRecharge Recharge
Wadi channel routing
with infiltration
Recharge dam
simulation
Wadi channel routing
with infiltration;
free lower boundary
Subsurface
Runoff
Recharge at the
mountain front
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
• Boundary Conditions for the Groundwater-
Model
• Uncertain subsurface catchment divide due
to geological characteristicsContour plot of oxygen isotopes (d18O) (Weyhenmeyer et al., 2002)
Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Recharge -
1
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
GIS-based approach for spatially distributed
recharge-rates in % of annual areal
precipitation based on geomorphologic
variables (height, slope, lithology, soils)
Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Recharge -
1
• Boundary Conditions for the Groundwater-
Model
• Uncertain subsurface catchment divide due
to geological characteristics
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
GIS-based approach for spatially distributed
recharge-rates in % of annual areal
precipitation based on geomorphologic
variables (height, slope, lithology, soils)
Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Recharge -
1
Fuzzy-approach for characterising
uncertain subsurface catchments
estimation of potential ranges of fresh
water availability
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Recharge -
1
Groundwater recharge estimation
Approach 1: Straightforward
60 – 73 MCM/a
Mean annual value Gerner et al. 2011
Groundwater recharge estimation
Approach 2: Inverse
68 MCM/a
Steady state calibration of Groundwater
model using optimizationWalther et al. 2012
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
„more crop per drop“The UN World Water Development Report, 2003
sustainable IWRM requires reducing the amount of water used in Oman’s agriculture without reducing food production
Higher water productivity
Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production -
2
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Simulation optimization of irrigation control and scheduling -
2
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Basic TOOLS for Assessment,
Management, Planning and
Adaption:
• Irrigation experiments
• Validated SVAT Models
→ transfer of experiments in
space and time
• Optimization tools
→ best layout, scheduling,
cropping pattern
• Monte Carlo simulation
→ high reliability of irrigation
management under climate and
soil variabilitySchütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool
for Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation.
In: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 136
Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production -
2
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
seasonal applied water
Schütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool
for Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation.
In: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 136
Estimation of Crop Water Production
Functions - CWPF
Deficit
irrigation
Full
irrigation
Non
sustainable
range
max WP max Yield
Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production -
2
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Schütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool
for Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation.
In: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 136
Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production -
2
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production -
2
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably
regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts ?
Challenges
• Long simulation times and the complexity of physically based models as well as
global optimization procedures
• Consideration of the model interactions within the optimization process
3-dimensional density dependent
groundwater flow
Crop growth and yield by
salty irrigation water
Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Challenges -
3
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
2D-CWPF0.9OGS-ANN
Methodology
1. Development of appropriate surrogate models
2. Multicriterial simulation-based optimization
How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably
regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts ?
Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - The use of surrogates -
3
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Objective Function
Optimisation Module
Global Evolutionary Technique for
Optimal Water Management
Cropping pattern Aj
Water demands Qj
Cultivated Acrage Lj
Water demands Qj
Agricultural Module
Revenues
Pj*Yj
IrrigationSchedule
Irrigation
Costs CIj
Water Resources Module
Groundwater
Pumping Cost CPj
OpenGeoSys-2D Groundwater
Model packed in ANN
Aquifer State
S(ti-1), h(ti-1)
Aquifer State
S(ti), h(ti)
SustainabilityIndex
Aquifer State
[S(tn), h(tn)]-
[S(t0), h(t0)]
MaximizeProfit and
Sustainability
Yields Yj
for m crops
2D-CWPF‘s
for m crops
Irrigation Water
Salinity S(ti)
Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Multicriterial simulation-based Optimization framework -
3
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Management objective:
GroundwaterManagement objective:
Farmer
High profit
Low costs
High quality products
Water with good quality
Long term availability
of water resources
good water quality
Abstraction < recharge
How to find the best compromise between the two objectives ?
depends on the actual preferences of the decision makers
Multicriterial optimisation Evaluation of pareto-optimal solutions
Contradicting objectives
How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably
regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts ?
Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Multicriterial simulation-based Optimization -
3
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Szenario:
Long term profit
Szenario:
multi-objective
Szenario:
Long term sustainability
Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Exemplary Application - Results -
3
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Long term profit Multi-objective
cro
p f
rac
tio
n [
%]
sa
lin
ity [
dS
]p
rofi
t [$
]
Sorghum
MaizeSorghum
Maize
OUTPUT
Crop pattern
Abstraction rates
Cultivated acreage
Profit for farmers
Salinity of the aquifer
Water levels of the aquifer
Cost benefit analysis for
stakeholders
Salinity of irrigation water
Irrigation schedule
Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Results -
3
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
AssessmentResources,
Impacts / Pressures,
Players / Needs
Management
optionsDevelopment,
Investigation
Decision
makingEvaluation
of options
ImplementationMeasures,
Investments,
Awareness
Monitoring
Follow upLessons learned
3 Implementation
The integrated management process
Recursion after 6-10 years
time
Aim: sustainable IWRM and development of resources
Surface and Subsur-face Water Module
AssessmentWater Resources Availability
Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios
Groundwater Module
Water Demand
AgriculturePotential and actual
water use
Irrigation ModuleTechnical SystemWater-BackboneAquifer Pumping
Artificial Recharge
Management: • optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources• operative optimal control of the technical system
Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy
APPM
Robust Simulation Tool of Water Resour-ces System (ANN)
Optimisation and Management Tool
Water supply
Water Productivity of Agriculture
Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.
Mo
nit
ori
ng
Soci
o-e
con
om
icD
evel
op
men
tSurface and Subsur-face Water Module
AssessmentWater Resources Availability
Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios
Groundwater Module
Water Demand
AgriculturePotential and actual
water use
Irrigation ModuleTechnical SystemWater-BackboneAquifer Pumping
Artificial Recharge
Management: • optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources• operative optimal control of the technical system
Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy
APPM
Robust Simulation Tool of Water Resour-ces System (ANN)
Optimisation and Management Tool
Water supply
Water Productivity of Agriculture
Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.
Mo
nit
ori
ng
Soci
o-e
con
om
icD
evel
op
men
tAppropriate methods and models are required
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
workshops
Pilote Farms &
Guidebook
Experiments
3 Implementation - Capacity Development & Activity Plan
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
• Some key issues of the new APPM-Tool for an integrated management of
arid zone water resources were presented inclusive first steps of
implementation.
• Modelling of density driven groundwater flow is mandatory.
• An increase of water productivity can be achieved by introducing novel
irrigation methods.
• A prototype of a simulation based water management model for
managing both water quality and quantity was presented.
• The methods of artificial intelligence (ANN) allow for a fast and robust
application of the process models in an optimisation framework.
• Multicriterial optimization can provide a tool for decision makers to find
sustainable solutions in an environmental, economical and social sense.
• A sustainable management of water and soils is a precondition for food
security
4 Summary
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Thank you for your attention !
Thanks to Niels Schütze, Gerd H. Schmitz, Franz Lennartz,
Alex Gerner, Sebastian Kloss,
Marc Walther, Hamed Al-Hatmi
The Omani Ministries of:
Regional Municipalities and Water Resources
Agriculture and Fisheries
Thanks for funding
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Journal papers
Schütze, N., & Schmitz, G. H., 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool for Optimal
Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation. Journal of Irrigation and
Drainage Engineering. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)IR.1943-4774.0000266
HONORABLE MENTION PAPER AWARD 2012
Grundmann, J., Schütze, N., Schmitz, G.-H., & Al-Shaqsi, S., 2011: Towards an
integrated arid zone water management using simulation based optimisation.
Environmental Earth Sciences. Doi: 10.1007/s12665-011-1253-z.
Schütze, N., de Paly, M., & Shamir, U., 2011:. Novel simulation-based algorithms for
optimal open-loop and closed-loop scheduling of deficit irrigation systems. Journal
of Hydroinformatics. doi:10.2166/hydro.2011.073
Kloss, S., Schütze, N., Schmitz, G.-H., 2011: Comparison of SVAT models for
simulating and optimizing deficit irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid countries
under climate variability. Water Resources Management. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-
011-9906-y.
Walther, M., Delfs, J.-O., Grundmann, J., Kolditz, O., Liedl, R., 2012: Saltwater
Intrusion Modeling: Verification and Application to an Agricultural Coastal Arid
Region in Oman, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics (accepted)
Gerner, A., Grundmann, J., Walther, M., Schmitz, G.H., 2011: Groundwater recharge
as a crucial aspect in water resources development for the Barka region.
International Conference on Drought Management Strategies in Arid and Semi-
Arid Regions, Muscat, Oman
Philipp, A., G. H. Schmitz, R. Liedl (2010): An Analytical Model of Surge Flow in Non-
Prismatic Permeable Channels and Its Application in Arid Regions. Journal of
Hydraulic Engineering 136(5), 290-298
OMAN
Water scarcity versus agricultural production
– a new way for an optimal and sustainable management of
resources under arid conditions –
Perspectives of an Integrated Management• Design of a water distribution network (Water-Backbone) to
deliver water of good quality to the farms
Suitable Sites for Groundwater Extraction
new wellfields
Desali-nation
water reuse
Aflaj ?
neighboring catchments
• Recultivation of
salty farm land and
of valuable soils for
agriculture
• Incorporation of
other sources of
water
• Recycling of water
for a sustainable
economic and
environmental
development
• Water of better quality delivered to consumers
•Extraction of ground-water at suitable sites
Technical realisation by
Supply System