Water Resources and International Conflict:

Game Theory

Water Resources and International Conflict:

Game Theory

Kristina SchneiderCE 384D

Kristina SchneiderCE 384D

“ The wars of the next century will be about water”

- Ismail Serageldin, Vice – President of the World Bank in a 1995 New York Times Article.

OverviewOverview

• The Nature of Water Resource Conflict

• Game Theory: A Brief Introduction• Application of Game Theory to the

Syr Darya River Basin• Conclusions

• The Nature of Water Resource Conflict

• Game Theory: A Brief Introduction• Application of Game Theory to the

Syr Darya River Basin• Conclusions

The Nature of Water Resource Conflict

The Nature of Water Resource Conflict

Water is not contained in political boundaries.

Boundary over which rivers cross!

Water is not contained in political boundaries.

Boundary over which rivers cross!

http://maps.esri.com/esri/arcview/world/world.html

Natural LimitsNatural Limits Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources:

Level of development desired

Absolute availability Water

Population supplied

The quality of the water

Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources:

Level of development desired

Absolute availability Water

Population supplied

The quality of the water

Resource RivalryResource Rivalry Potential causes of water disputes:

Amount the resource is shared among

the nations

Degree of scarcity of water

Relative power of each nation

Accessibility of alternative fresh water

supplies.

Potential causes of water disputes:

Amount the resource is shared among

the nations

Degree of scarcity of water

Relative power of each nation

Accessibility of alternative fresh water

supplies.

Will War result?Will War result? Most likely not!

It is not strategically rational.

It is hydrographically ineffective.

It is economically infeasible.

Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still:

Causes more poverty

Shortens lives

Decreases the stability of the nation

Most likely not!

It is not strategically rational.

It is hydrographically ineffective.

It is economically infeasible.

Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still:

Causes more poverty

Shortens lives

Decreases the stability of the nation

Game Theory: A Brief Introduction

Game Theory: A Brief Introduction

Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome.

- MSN Encarta

Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible.

- Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy

Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome.

- MSN Encarta

Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible.

- Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy

Game Theory: A Brief Introduction

Game Theory: A Brief Introduction

The decision makers are called players.

Two person or multi-person games exist.

The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game.

Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points.

The decision makers are called players.

Two person or multi-person games exist.

The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game.

Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points.

Game Theory: Assumptions

Game Theory: Assumptions

Each player can chose between two or more clear choices.

Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw.

The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants. The players will act rationally.

Each player can chose between two or more clear choices.

Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw.

The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants. The players will act rationally.

Game Theory: PayoffsGame Theory: Payoffs

Payoffs are often represented in matrix form.

Payoffs determine what type of game is played.

Zero-sum GamesOne player wins while the other loses.

Non-zero-sum GamesNo straight forward answer exists.

Payoffs are often represented in matrix form.

Payoffs determine what type of game is played.

Zero-sum GamesOne player wins while the other loses.

Non-zero-sum GamesNo straight forward answer exists.

Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya

River Basin

Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya

River Basin

The River Basin’s Unique Challenges: Former USSR

Republics

The River Basin’s Unique Challenges: Former USSR

Republics Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions:

The river was contained in one nation

Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs

Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia

Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels.

Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions:

The river was contained in one nation

Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs

Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia

Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels.

The Toktogul ReservoirThe Toktogul Reservoir

Main reservoir along the river Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Provides power - Kyrgyzstan

Main reservoir along the river Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Provides power - Kyrgyzstan

Toktogul ModelToktogul Model Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs.

Three scenarios: Maximize irrigation needs

Maximize power generation for both summer and winter.

Baseline – no dam exists.

Two flow regimes NNNNN

NNDNN

Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs.

Three scenarios: Maximize irrigation needs

Maximize power generation for both summer and winter.

Baseline – no dam exists.

Two flow regimes NNNNN

NNDNN

Economic Results of the Model

Economic Results of the Model

Game Theory: Syr DaryaGame Theory: Syr Darya

Two person non-zero-sum game

Players

Downstream - Kazakhstan and

Uzbekistan

Upstream – Kyrgyzstan

Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios

considered

Two person non-zero-sum game

Players

Downstream - Kazakhstan and

Uzbekistan

Upstream – Kyrgyzstan

Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios

considered

Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr

Darya River Basin

Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr

Darya River Basin

Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr

Darya River Basin

Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr

Darya River Basin

Analysis of Game Theory Application

Analysis of Game Theory Application

Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game. The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis. If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP. This is a logical choice.

Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game. The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis. If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP. This is a logical choice.

ConclusionsConclusions

International Water Conflict will occur.

Conflict situations will not be violent.

Game theory is a valid tool to help in

water resource decision making.

The correct payoffs must be used to

receive a correct solution to a game.

International Water Conflict will occur.

Conflict situations will not be violent.

Game theory is a valid tool to help in

water resource decision making.

The correct payoffs must be used to

receive a correct solution to a game.