Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions Duke University

Water Resources & Adaptation to Climate Change with a Focus on the

Ganges

Regional Technical Workshop on Application of Modeling Tools forClimate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment. MRC/CSIRO.

8-9 September 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

Peter G. McCornick, PhD, D.WREDirector for Water Policy

CONTEXT• Water and how it is managed, presents one of the more

significant opportunities to enhance resilience and adapt to present and future climate variability

• Prudent water management can moderate the effect of hydrological extremes, provide the basic platform for livelihoods and economic development, reduce the fluctuations in production, and sustain ecosystems.

• However, most decisions related to water resources management are political in nature, many cases beyond the water sector itself, and taken with less than perfect information

• Ensuring good decisions is further complicated as current decision support and planning paradigms rest heavily on the assumption of climatic and hydrologic stationarity.

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Farakka Barrage-. FeederCanal JangipLjr Baffage-.

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Kolkata Ganges Basin [j Brahrnaputra Basin

L11 Meghna Basin

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Bay of Bengal

390 km

MYAN MAR

25'

CASE OF THE GANGES

Water resources and utilization are changing due to:– Population growth– Economic development– Governance and

management practices (including beyond the water sector), and

– Climate change

Source: Mirza (2002)

CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS• Glacier/Snowpack melt

characteristics– Varies by sub-basin– Greater significance to the west

• GLOFs• Yet Ganges is a monsoon

driven river with 500 million inhabitants– Water & Food security

• Surface – Groundwater –Rainfed - Interconnections

– Water & Flooding• Cyclones

Climate risks India Nepal Bangladesh

Temperature rise High Very high High

Glacier retreat High High ‐‐‐

Frequent floods High High Very high

Frequent droughts High High in some areas High in some areas

Sea‐level rise Modest ‐‐‐ Very high

Tajewala dam (10.75)

Chambal (30) F-

Betwa(10) H Ken (11) H

Tons (5.9) (7.4) Gormati

Sone(31.8) H H(52.2) Gandak

Punpun(3.6) H

Allaha bad

(152)

Patna (364)

Farakka Barrage (495)

Haridwar (23.9) - Upper Ganges Canal

Narora (31.4)

(94.4) Ghangra

H(7.1) Bun Gandak

(68.3) Koshi

- (15.6) Ramganga

- Lower Ganges Canal

West Bengal, India Bangladesh (Hoogh y River) (Padma River)

Yamuna Ganges

(93) (59)

(5105) f- Brahmaputra

Meghna

Sundarbans

Bay of Bengal

• Intersection of water and climate change on key sectors – experience, impacts and opportunities:– Agriculture/Food Security– Energy – Health– Ecosystems

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Legend

Class Number & Class Names

01 Irrigated, surface water, single crop

02 Irrigated, surface water, double crop

03 Irrigated, surface water. continuous crop

04 Irrigated, ground water, single crop

05 Irrigated, ground water, double crop

06 Irrigated. conjunctive use, single crop

07 Irrigated, conjunctive use, double crop

08 Irrigated, conjunctive use, continuous crop

00 Other area arid ocean I I

INDIA

IRRIGATED AREAS OF SOUTH ASIA

Thenkabail, et al (2005)

Nepal Co& 2.0%_

1ydro, oIar,

wind, and

geotherm& 2.3%

Hydro, solar,

wind, and 3iorra and geothermal.

waste L7% 865%

NscLear

0.8%

3omass and waste

29.4%

T'at.Jral Gas

5,4%

India

Oil

23.9%

Coal

387%

Hydro, solar,

w&,d, and

ge oth a rrnal

0.5%

Bangladesh Coal

1.4%

4 Biomass and

waste

34,3%

Oil 19.1%

Natural Gas

44.7%

Ganges basin countriesPer capita energy consumption in kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe)

Nepal India Bangladesh

Global

1990 304 377 123 1,668

2000 334 452 145 1,657

2005 338 491 171 1,778

5-

• Existing and emerging institutions, relevance to adaption & current commitments:– UNFCCC funding– South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI)– Ganga River Basin Authority (GRBA) – within

India– ICIMOD as a regional platform– Country specific NAPAs and other adaptation

plans• As with elsewhere, these are modest in scope

– Bilateral agencies (eg. DfID, DANIDA)

• Broad strategies for enhancing adaptation– Flexible institutions

• Based on adaptable planning and decision making systems

• Local to transboundary scale– Groundwater markets in

West Bengal– Water users groups and small

storage facilities– Transboundary - lessons

from the Indus Treaty– Conjunctively manage water resources

(surface, ground and precipitation)– Strategic use of storage continuum

(large scale surface – in-system reservoirs - groundwater – soil-water)

• Broad strategies for enhancing adaptation (cont)

– Increase yield/water productivity– Improve water quality

• Domestic wastewater is a major issue• Industrial pollution also, and severely

complicates the challenge• Agriculture

– Recognize and protect ecosystem services and environmental flows

– Support risk management• Bangladesh – fatalities have been declining, but

economic loss continues to increase (CEGIS)

• Barriers to implementation– Data & information– Capacity: Technical, Financial &

Human– Physical– Socio-Political– Institutional

CLOSING THOUGHTS

• Water resources are effected by a range of drivers beyond the water sector, and adaptation is entwined with broader development processes.

• Models and decision frameworks increasingly need to capture relationships between livelihoods and water management under changing conditions and circumstances.

WORKING PAPER

Water, Climate Change, and Adaptation

August2009

'NICHOLAS

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'Aftcho!ns&ho&oftheEuthronmeni. Duke Unhieoiy - 'Iutemnissn! Water Managemntlesltliii.

NI WP 09-03

Focus on the Ganges River Basin

Heather R. Hosterman

Peter G. McCornick

Elizabeth J. Kistiri

Anju Pantt

Bharat Sharma5

Luna Bharatit

Explores the intersection between water resources management and climate adaptation in this critical basin