Water as a Source of Conflict or Cooperation?

Lessons from the Indus Waters Treaty

Ahmad Rafay AlamAdvocate of the High Courts

Vice President, Pakistan Environmental Law AssociationDepartment of Law & Policy, LUMS

LUMS Water Program/Development Policy Research Centre

T A R B E L A D A M

M A N G L A D A M

Q A D IR A B AH /W

B A L L O K IH /W

P A N J N A DH E A D W O R K

G U D D U B A R R A G E

CHENAB RIV

ER

IS L A M A B A D

R A W A L P IN D I

A R E A = 3 5 0 ,0 0 0 S Q MIN F L O W = 1 7 0 M A F

CHEN

AB R

IVER

J A C O B A B A D

K A R A C H I

A R A B IA N S E A

M A N C H U R L A K E

B E L A

IN D U S B A S IN B O U N D A R Y

R A N N O F K U C H H

S U K K U R B A R R A G E

M IT H A N K O T

IN T E R H A T IO N A LB O U N D A R Y

K O T R IB A R R A G E

A F G H A N I S T A N

W A R S A K D A M

D E R A S IM A ILK H A N

P E S H A W E R

C H A S H M AB A R R A G E

T R IM M U B A R R A G E

T A U N S A B A R R A G E

K A L A B A G H D A M

JHEL

UM R

IVER

R A S U LH E A D W O R K

K O H A T

C . I . S

I N D I A

S U L E IM A N K EH E A D W O R K

IS L A M H E A D W O R K

B H A K R A D A M

R U P A R H E A D W O R K

C H I N A

P O N G D A M

F E R O Z E P U RH E A D W O R K

J A M M U

W U L L A R L A K ES R IN A G A R

K H A N K IH /W

BEAS

RIV

ER

S U T L E J R IV E R

H A R IK EH /W

M A R A L AH /W

INDUS R IVER

J A M M U

K A S H M I R

S ID N K IN G (C H IN A )

T IB E T (C H IN A )

B A G L IH A RH /E P L A N T

S A L A L

K IS H E N G A N G AH /E P L A N T

IN D U S B A S IN B O U N D A R YR IV E R

IN T . B O U N D A R Y

L E G E N D

E A S T E R N R IV E R

W E S T E R N R IV E R

R AVI RIVER

Pakistan’s Dependence on Water

80% of Pakistan arid; 20% water-availability

95% of freshwater (mostly glacial melt) used to irrigate some 40 million acres of land

Nearly 75% of water resource is available during the 3 months of the Monsoon season (water storage capacity)

Irrigation accounts for 24% of GDP, 90% of exports and 48% of workforce

The Pakistani economy has developed by harnessing the Indus Basin

The “poverty-water nexus”

Water is an existential issue for Pakistan

Origins of the Indus Waters Treaty, 1960

Partition of Land – 1947 Created riparian relations where none existed David Lilianthal’s vision of joint watershed management The “Good Offices of the World Bank”

Partition of Waters – 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, 1960 Negotiated when international water law in its infancy Highly technical; meant to be “politician proof”

Characteristics of the IWT Does not divide waters, divides rivers

Eastern Rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi) to India Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan

Bilateral; does not include other riparians China and Afghanistan

Did not consider sub-national issues (Sindh & Kashmir)

Pakistan allowed to use waters of certain tributaries of Ravi River foragriculture (Annex B)

India allowed to use waters of Western Rivers for agriculture (Annex C),generation of hydro-electric power (Annex D), storage (Annex E)

Co-signed by third party World Bank assisted parties to agreement “Financial Provisions” of IWT (Article V) dealt contributions from India and

Indus Basin Development Fund (US$ 800m) to finance replacement works: 8 link canals (400 miles) 2 storage dams (Tarbela on Indus and Mangla on Jhelum) Power Stations 2,500 tubewells etc.

Characteristics II Creation of Indian & Pakistan Indus Water Commissioners (the

Permanent Indus Commission, Article VIII) To exchange of information To provide notice

“Settlement of Differences and Disputes (Article IX) Questions concerning interpretation firstly to be examined by Permanent

Indus Commission Inability to resolve question = “difference” Differences to be resolved by Neutral Expert. Decision of the Neutral Expert

to be final and binding Comprehensive process of appointment

Neutral expert confined to 23 questions (set out in Annex F) If question outside authority of Neutral Expert, then it is to be settled by

referring it to a Court of Arbitration Court to consist of 7 arbitrators, two appointed by each party, the rest through

a comprehensive process (Annex G) No hierarchy; reference not an appeal

IT has worked and withstood the test of time!

Pakistan’s Concern over IWT Construction of dams on Western Rivers a violation of the

“spirit of the Treaty” and can cause up to 30% water loss

Construction of dams will give India ability to affect Pakistan’swater resource (assistance to Afghanistan in construction ofwater-storage dams also alluded to)

Filing of Baghliar Resoivor cited as proof of intentions (thoughofficially Baghliar issue has been resolved)

Water issues have been inextricably linked to Indo-Pakpolitical issues (Iyer: “Water is not an issue between India andPakistan, it is an issue of India and Pakistan”)

Indian view on IWT Elaborate restrictions on water use on Western Rivers

Fear that Pakistan is trying to nullify the permissible usesclause of the IWT.

India will not cut off its economic nose to spite Pakistan(“Many pondages do not make a storage”)

Poor water usage and water infrastructure in Pakistan(low cost recovery, “BNR”)

Restriction on run-of-river dams impact energydevelopment in Kashmir and elsewhere

Water a Source of Conflict Only 5-6 incidents in history where water a source of conflict; it is primarily a source of

cooperation

Current paradigm under IWT a zero sum game. Disputes amount to a “stay order”, costescalation and a waste of time

Very little that can be done about perceptions

Treaty now facing new challenges: Climate Change EIA’s, minimum flows unheard of in 1960 Water scarcity (how do you allocate a scarce resource?) Groundwater

Rhetoric is going out of control (the unintended consequence of “politician proof”)

IWT is hardwired into Pakistani security establishment Shadows of unresolved Kashmir issues

Indus Basin one of many watershed concerns for India

Water as a Source of Cooperation Shadow of the Treaty is only 50 years old. The Indus Civilization is

5000 years old. No competition.

Move outside IWT paradigm of dividing the resource LUMS/ORF Indus Basin Water Usage Mapping Study

Must create an alternative dialogue

Must have long term view. There are a billion and a half people,Children of the Monsoon, that are going to be affected by water-related issues in the coming decades. We cannot sit back andreact. We must formulate and lead this debate

Indo-Pak cooperation on water (outside Kashmir and War onTerror) can be leveraged (IWT resulted in US$ (1960) 1 billion ininvestment from WB IWDF) and will create enormous internationalgoodwill.

Can Peace Parks be a Way Forward?

Siachen, the “highest battleground in the world” or “a struggle between two bald men for a comb” IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas UNESCO World Heritage list Rio Declaration Hague & Geneva Conventions Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use

of Environmental Modification (necessity, proportionality, selectivity & humanity)

Constitutional Rights Local laws

Siachen Peace Park Management System

Huge international goodwill; a chance to change the discourse

Thank you – Be Green