waste management as secondary raw material supplier...waste management as secondary raw material...
TRANSCRIPT
Waste managementas secondary raw material supplier
Dr. Bärbel Birnstengel - Arno Häusler - Martin Knittel
MiMeR/ Boliden Metallurgical Foresight Seminar 2012 - Luleå, 25.08.2012
© 2012 Prognos AG
Meet the future challenges
We are all in the same boat...
2
Resource consumption leading to resource scarcity
Increasing waste volumes and changing
composition
- growing worldwide, details unknown -
- strain on environment -
Global climate change
- much faster, regionally unbalanced-
© 2012 Prognos AG
Distribution of selected critical metals
3
Sources: OECD, Materials Case Study 1: Critical metals and Mobile Devices critical raw materials (EU-level)
81%-90%
60%-80%
77%-80%
90%
60%-70%
45%-65%
85%-95%
© 2012 Prognos AG
World production of REE in 2011
World production of rare earth elements minerals in 2011 in total metric tons of rare earth oxides
4
China130,000
Brazil550
Commonwealth ofIndipendent States
2,500
India3,000
Malaysia30
Source: U.S. Geological Survey 2011
© 2012 Prognos AG
World resources of REE in 2011
World resources of rare earth elements minerals in 2011 in total metric tons of rare earth oxides
5
China55,000,000
Brazil48,000
Commonwealth ofIndipendent States
19,000,000
India3,100,000
Malaysia30,000
Australia1,600,000
United States13,000,000
Other22,000,000
Source: U.S. Geological Survey 2011
Greenland875,000
Sweden447,000Canada
8,0000,000
South Africa977,000
© 2012 Prognos AG
Imports of rare earth compounds by origin in tons
EU27 rare earth trade
6
Quelle: Eurostat (Comext)
© 2012 Prognos AG
EU27 rare earth imports 2011
7
Quelle: Eurostat (Comext)
© 2012 Prognos AG
Selected application examples for REE
8
Source: British Geological Survey 2011, according to British geological Survey, Rare Earth Elements, June 2010; Foto: fotolia (c
wind turbines
(hybrid) electric vehicles
catalysts
lighting systems
Elec-tronicalequip-ment
magnetsmedicaldevices
ceramics
© 2012 Prognos AG
Ressource potentials – example „laptop“
9
consumption~59 million*
import~55 million*
export̴ 5 million*
Quelle: Eurostat (Prodcom, Comext), umicore
* average weight of 3.5 kg assumed
production~9 million
copper: ~ 29.500 t gold: ~ 13 t
silver: ~ 59 t palladium: ~5 t
resource ?
waste ?
theoretical potential, e.g.
© 2012 Prognos AG
WEEE in Europe
10
EU 27 (data basis: 2008)
� put on the market: 10.4 Mt
� collected: 3.3 Mt / Ø 32%
range: 9% - 72%
� recovered: 2.3 Mt / Ø 23%
range: (0%) 3% - 64%
Quelle: Eurostat, analysis Prognos
© 2012 Prognos AG
Ressource potentials – example „mobile phone“
11
Example*: Survey carried out in Canada, USA, UK (2007-2008)
translated into EU 27 conditions(estimated for selected materials, based on productionfigures)
copper: ~ 586 t antimony: ~ 0.80 t
nickel: ~ 71.9 t beryllium: ~1.33 t
silver: ~ 1.60 t palladium: ~0.03 t
gold: ~ 0,14 t tantalum: ~1.33 t
illustrative only
Sources: ProdCom, OECD, Materials Case Study 1: Critical metals and Mobile Devices, 2010, composiiton as per Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft, analysis Prognos
© 2012 Prognos AG
Recycling rates of metals
12
1
H2
He3
Li4
Be5
B6
C7
N8
O9
F10
Ne11
Na12
Mg13
Al14
Si15
P16
S17
Cl18
Ar19
K20
Ca21
Sc22
Ti23
V24
Cr25
Mn26
Fe27
Co28
Ni29
Cu30
Zn31
Ga32
Ge33
As34
Se35
Br36
Kr37
Rb38
Sr39
Y40
Ze41
Nb42
Mo43
Tc44
Ru45
Rh46
Pd47
Ag38
Cd49
In50
Sn51
Sb52
Te53
I54
Xe55
Cs56
Ba* 72
Hf73
Ta74
W75
Re76
Os77
Ir78
Pt79
Au80
Hg81
Tl82
Pb83
Bi84
Po85
At86
Rn87
Fr88
Ra** 104
Rf105
Db106
Sg107
Bh108
Hs109
Mt110
Ds111
Rg112
Uub113
Uut114
Uug115
Uup116
Uuh117
Uus118
Uuo
57
La58
Ce59
Pr60
Nd61
Pm62
Sm63
Eu64
Gd65
Tb66
Dy67
Ho68
Er69
Tm70
Yb71
Lu89
Ac90
Th91
Pa92
U93
Np94
Pu95
Am96
Cm97
Bk98
Cf99
Es100
Fm101
Md102
No103
Lr
* Lanthanides** Actinides
< 1% 1% – 10% > 10 – 25% > 25% - 50% > 50%
Source: UNEP, Recycling Rates of Metals - A Status report, 2011
© 2012 Prognos AG
The high resource potential has only partly been used so far...
13
* in total 17 waste streams analysed / ** 2006: MSWI considered as disposal (D10)
… selected examples* based on data for 2006 …
share recovered
share disposed
% = share recovered
Range of share recovered within EU27
legend:
iron & steel
aluminium copper othermetals
zinc……
1.4 Mt1.07 Mt 0.89 Mt
4.7 Mt
103 MtØ 77%
Ø 66%
Ø 69%Ø 61%
Ø 39%
© 2012 Prognos AG
Copper waste stream potential and recovery 2006 in kg per capita
14
* fragmentary or missing data (total potential is higher but unknown) ** Verwertung = Recycling / recovery = recycling
Source: Prognos, European atlas of secondary raw materials
© 2012 Prognos AG
Focus on an integrated strategy
15
ensure access to primary raw materials at undistort ed conditions
promote substitution of selected raw materials by o ther materials
reduce consumption of primary raw materials
(more) efficient recycling of raw materials and raw material containing products
promote sustainable management of raw materials
improve materials / resource efficiency for scarce raw materials
© 2012 Prognos AG
EU 27 waste management has contributed …
16
… with 92 Mt CO2equ. to EU climate protection in 2004 (reference year)*
… and could make a further contribution until 2020 with
+ 146 Mt CO2equ. - only by implementation of waste legislation before WFD !
+ 197 Mt CO2equ. - roughly corresponding to WFD
+ 224 Mt CO2equ. - advanced waste management system
Source Prognos – INFU – IFEU, Resource savings and CO2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO2 reduction target in 2020, Berlin 2008 (based on the analysis for 12 selected waste streams)
19% - 31% of the European climate protection targets until 2020
© 2012 Prognos AG
� ...play an important role to close resource cycles and to secure important secondary raw materials and energy
� ...contribute significantly to climate protection
� …by organizing efficient collection systems and
� ...by diverting waste from landfills
17
Waste management can…
© 2012 Prognos AG
Global challenges need coordinated global solutions (1)
18
Secondary resource management needs to be optimized by improved waste management
waste management needs to become a really integrated part of environmental, economical and climate policy
waste management needs to be really turned to resource management, giving priority to diverting waste from landfills
recycling and energy recovery needs to go hand in hand (not against each other) giving priority to global environmental, climate etc. challenges
© 2012 Prognos AG
Global challenges need coordinated global solutions (2)
19
Climate protection needs to be optimized by improve d waste management
consumer needs to be better integrated into material cycles
secondary raw material and energy efficiency needs to be increased
regional crossboarder concepts (instead of strict national self sufficiency concepts) need to be more supported
© 2012 Prognos AG 20
Global challenges need coordinated global solutions !
© 2012 Prognos AG
Germany´s area of research
Germany ´s new research centres
� Recycling-Cluster of economicstrategic metals Niedersachsen (REWIMET)− network of 25 companies and institutes − focus on economic strategic metals− joint applied research (different clusters)− controlled by TU Clausthal under the management
of Prof. Goldmann (IFAD)
21
Recycling-Cluster of economicstrategic metals Niedersachsen (REWIMET)
AKR e.V.
Aachener competence centre ofresource technology
Frauenhofer IWKS
Hanau / Alzenau
Helmholtz Institut Freiberg
for resource technology
© 2012 Prognos AG
Objectives of the study „Europe becomes a raw material region“
22
…to recognize the demand for secondary raw materials
Raw material and resource scarcity are not only a threat, but also a chance!
… to realize the remaining potential of secondary raw materials
… to recognize the economic cost-benefit-balance of secondary raw materials
… to highlight the contribution of waste management to raw material security &
climate protection
© 2012 Prognos AG 23
Modular design „Europe becomes a raw material region“
Base module: (secondary) raw material potential in Europe (EU27)� secondary raw materials within waste (satus quo and maximum potential)****� climate protection potential (EU27) within waste*****
Stakeholder-Workshop (optional, as per module)
Final report
Module 1: development of SRM* Module 2: fin. benefit of SRM* Module 3: demand for RM*
� scenarios for the retrieval of secondary resources
� avoidance of landfill
� measures and instruments� imports / exports
� climate protection
� potential financial savings� costs of the development of
secondary resources
� financial benefit of a comprehensive raw material strategy
� benefits for the national economy by level of innovation / use of technologies
� demand for raw materials(EU27**) today and2020 (within basis / raw materials, wholesale products, end-consumer-products)
� mass flows for selected raw materials***
� potencial contribution / benefits of (secondary) raw materials
* SRM – secondary raw materials RM – raw materials ** product flows in to 42 countries (OECD, incl. EU 23 – exc. CY, MT, LV, LT) *** to be specified****: Prognos – European Atlas of Secondary raw materials 2006 Status Quo and potential – Edition 2009 *****: Prognos, IFEU, INFU - Resource savings and CO2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO2 reduction target in 2020 - 2008
Derivation of necessary targets & indicators to mea sure the achievement
© 2012 Prognos AG
Where can you find further information?
24
Prognos AG: Europäischer Sekundärrohstoffatlas 2006 Status Quo und Potenziale – Edition 2009 / European Atlas of Secondary Raw Materials 2006 Status Quo and Potential – Edition 2009, Berlin 2008, added by a forecast for 2020
(www.prognos.com/sekundaerrohstoffatlas)
Prognos – INFU – IFEU: Resource savings and CO2 reduction potential in waste management in Europe and the possible contribution to the CO2 reduction target in 2020; Berlin 2008
(http://www.prognos.com/CO2-study.609.0.html)
© 2012 Prognos AG 25
Picture Copyright: slides 1,2, 20 /left) – fotolia ©; slides 11, 16-20 (right) – PresenterMedia, slide 25 – Prognos AG
We give orientation .Prognos AG - European Centre for Economic Research and Strategy Advise