Warc Consensus Adspend ForecastJuly 2014

warc.com

Warc’s Consensus Forecast publishes figures based on a weighted average of predictions from various sources, including advertising agencies, media monitoring companies and industry bodies.

Current sources include:Advertising Association; Carat; eMarketer; Magna Global; Media Partners Asia; Pivotal; Warc; Zenith Optimedia.

There will be some discrepancy between data series dependent on individual source methodology. For the purpose of this report it has been assumed that data series are comparable and figures should therefore be regarded as topline indicators of the market only.

Where ‘global’ forecasts are referenced, these are based on the weighted average of predictions from each source’s own definition of ‘global’ advertising spend. It should be noted that there may be variations in the number of countries included. For further detail please refer to individual sources.

Notes on data

warc.com

Consensus Forecast:Total Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia 2.1 2.9

Brazil 12.8 7.9

Canada 3.5 3.9

China 11.1 10.3

France 0.4 0.9

Germany 1.6 1.8

India 11.3 11.0

Italy -0.4 1.5

Japan 2.4 2.3

Russia 9.0 8.5

Spain 1.5 3.3

UK 6.4 5.7

US 5.5 3.8

Global 5.8 5.0

Consensus Forecast:Total Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

% change y/y

2014 2015

Consensus Forecast:Newspaper Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia -16.5 -12.4

Brazil -1.6 0.4

Canada -5.6 -3.5

China -10.1 -8.4

France -6.3 -5.2

Germany -5.0 -4.7

India 10.8 10.5

Italy -12.5 -8.4

Japan -0.1 -2.3

Russia -8.3 -7.7

Spain -3.9 -3.6

UK -5.7 -4.4

US -6.9 -6.2

Global -4.1 -3.1

Consensus Forecast:Newspaper Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

% change y/y

2014 2015

Consensus Forecast:Magazine Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia -11.0 -8.8

Brazil -4.4 -2.0

Canada -2.0 -1.4

China -5.8 -5.3

France -6.7 -4.6

Germany -2.0 -1.3

India 2.7 4.0

Italy -12.1 -7.5

Japan -0.7 -1.8

Russia -7.4 -7.5

Spain -6.5 -2.5

UK -5.9 -4.8

US -4.2 -3.2

Global -3.5 -2.8

Consensus Forecast:Magazine Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

-14.0

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

% change y/y

2014 2015

Consensus Forecast:TV Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia 1.6 2.9

Brazil 15.3 6.3

Canada 1.2 1.8

China 5.0 4.7

France -0.1 -0.2

Germany 2.7 2.5

India 11.2 11.6

Italy 0.1 0.6

Japan 2.2 1.9

Russia 5.4 5.3

Spain 3.3 5.1

UK 5.1 3.0

US 5.0 2.0

Global 5.3 3.6

Consensus Forecast:TV Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

% change y/y

2014 2015

Consensus Forecast:Radio Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia 1.0 0.2

Brazil 8.5 8.3

Canada 2.8 2.8

China 7.1 7.0

France 0.4 1.1

Germany 1.5 1.7

India 9.9 10.5

Italy 0.2 -0.5

Japan -1.2 -0.6

Russia 9.1 6.4

Spain -1.0 1.8

UK 1.4 1.4

US 0.9 0.9

Global 2.0 2.1

Consensus Forecast:Radio Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

% change

2014 2015

Consensus Forecast:Cinema Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia 7.2 4.8

Brazil 5.6 11.6

China 21.1 14.2

France 3.4 0.2

Germany 0.3 1.3

India 14.1 13.0

Italy -10.8 -2.6

Russia 8.0 5.4

Spain 5.8 2.4

UK 2.5 2.9

US 4.7 5.0

Global 4.6 6.6

Consensus Forecast:Cinema Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

% change y/y

2014 2015

Consensus Forecast:Outdoor Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia 2.4 4.2

Brazil 17.6 15.7

Canada 2.7 3.0

China 10.4 8.8

France 0.4 1.2

Germany 3.0 2.1

India 12.4 10.6

Italy -4.0 1.0

Japan 0.0 2.1

Russia 3.7 4.8

Spain -0.8 4.4

UK 2.7 3.1

US 3.8 4.5

Global 4.2 4.9

Consensus Forecast:Outdoor Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

% change y/y

2014 2015

Consensus Forecast:Internet Advertising Expenditure

Note: Global forecasts relate to each source organisation’s definition of ‘Global’. See ‘Notes on Data’ at start of presentation.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

Current prices, y/y % change

2014 2015

Australia 16.4 12.4

Brazil 20.8 16.6

Canada 12.8 11.3

China 30.0 23.3

France 6.4 6.3

Germany 9.8 8.5

India 32.3 30.3

Italy 9.2 10.0

Japan 8.1 8.1

Russia 21.9 18.7

Spain 5.3 9.1

UK 14.0 12.0

US 18.1 15.1

Global 16.4 15.1

Consensus Forecast:Internet Advertising Expenditure

Note: Chart ranked according to 2014 growth forecast.Source: Warc Consensus Adspend Forecast July 2014. warc.com

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

% change y/y

2014 2015