W4404: Regional climate and climate impacts

A discussion centered onthe US National Climate Assessment

4 March 2015

Outline

Introduction to the National Climate Assessmentand other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]

Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA

A little science [dynamics of climate change in theAmerican Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertaintyin projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]

A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report ofthe National Academies

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Outline

Introduction to the National Climate Assessmentand other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]

Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA

A little science [dynamics of climate change in theAmerican Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertaintyin projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]

A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report ofthe National Academies

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

US Global Change Research Programintegrates findings about climate, impacts, adaptationinto a National Climate Assessmentwhich by law has to be prepared and provided to President and Congress every 4 years.

US Departments of:Commerce, Defense, Energy, Interior, State,Transportation, Health and Human Services, AgricultureUS Government Agencies: NASA, NSF, USAID, EPA + Smithsonian Institution

are all contributors to the NCA.

http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

“National climate assessments act as status reports about climate change science and impacts. They are based on observations made across the country and compare these observations to predictions from climate system models.  

The NCA aims to incorporate advances in the understanding of climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems, and with this provide integrated analyses of impacts and vulnerability.”

http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. [… changes in emissions; observed and projected changes in climate, causes and attribution of climate change…] The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.

The IPCC Working Group III (WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing activities that remove them from the atmosphere.

http://www.ipcc.ch/working_groups/working_groups.shtml

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Goals of the NCA

“The NCA will help evaluate the effectiveness of our mitigation and adaptation activities and identify economic opportunities that arise as the climate changes. It will also serve to integrate scientific information from multiple sources and highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge.”

http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/nca-overview

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NCA – climate change impacts and regions

Our changing climate

Sectors

Regions

Response strategies

http://www.globalchange.gov/explorehttp://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Table of contents (p.1/2)

Introduction: Letter to the American People 1. Executive Summary 2. Our Changing Climate Introduction to Sectors 3. Water Resources 4. Energy Supply and Use 5. Transportation 6. Agriculture 7. Forestry 8. Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services 9. Human Health 10. Water, Energy, and Land Use 11. Urban Systems, Infrastructure, and Vulnerability 12. Impacts of Climate Change on Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources 13. Land Use and Land Cover Change 14. Rural Communities 15. Interactions of Climate Change and Biogeochemical Cycles

“physical climate basis”sectoral approach

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Table of contents (p.2/2)

Introduction to Regions 16. Northeast 17. Southeast and Caribbean 18. Midwest 19. Great Plains 20. Southwest* 21. Northwest 22. Alaska and the Arctic 23. Hawaii and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands 24. Oceans and Marine Resources 25. Coastal Zone Development and Ecosystems Introduction to Response Strategies 26. Decision Support: Supporting Policy, Planning, and Resource Management Decisions in a Climate Change Context 27. Mitigation 28. Adaptation 29. Research Agenda for Climate Change Science 30. The NCA Long-Term Process: Vision and Future Development Appendix I: NCA Climate Science - Addressing Commonly Asked Questions from A to Z Appendix II: The Science of Climate Change

regional approach

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate

anyone familiar w/this feature?

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the “warming hole” –

see Meehl, Arblaster and Branstator 2012, in J Climate

NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NCA, Ch.2 – Our changing climate

many more analyses/maps, on:

Flooding magnitude, drought extent

Hurricane frequency and intensity

Arctic sea ice extent

Sea level rise

…

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Outline

Introduction to the National Climate Assessmentand other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]

Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA

A little science [dynamics of climate change in theAmerican Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertaintyin projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]

A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report ofthe National Academies

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NCA – climate change impacts and regions

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

The National Climate Assessment

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report

For your region, jot down:

The most significant exposure, i.e. current and projected climatic impact

Exacerbating factors, i.e. projected increases in exposure,current/future sensitivity

Primary economic sector affected

Adaptation strategies, including possible gains from CC

Efforts to tackle mitigationEESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Some common threads:

Attention to current regional “climate problems”,recent anomalies

Attribution of recent trends is explicit

Concern about US vulnerability is comparable to that of many developing countries

Disconnect with CC policy/political discoursein Washington, US position in the global arena (?)

…

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NOAA’s goals:[a national climate service?]

Climate adaptation and mitigation

Weather-ready nation

Healthy oceans

Resilient coastal communities and economies

http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/goals/

Also see: http://www.climate.gov/

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NOAA’s goals:

Climate adaptation and mitigation

• Objective: Improved scientific understanding of the changing climate system and its impacts

• Objective: Assessments of current and future states of the climate system that identify potential impacts and inform science, service, and stewardship decisions

• Objective: Mitigation and adaptation efforts supported by sustained, reliable, and timely climate services

• Objective: A climate-literate public that understands its vulnerabilities to a changing climate and makes informed decisions

http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/goals/

Also see: http://www.climate.gov/

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2014/13

NOAA/Monitoring/Observations

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EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

NOAA/AdaptationRegional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program

http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms/ClimateandSocietalInteractions/RISAProgram.aspx EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast>> Malgosia Madajewicz – guest lecture next week Monday

[consider this to be the exposure layer of vulnerability]

http://www.ccrun.org/

… Recall the US CO2 emissions “bubble” from last time[slide #9]This is its evolution since 1990

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2014.pdfwww.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo >> annual energy outlook

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

U.S. emissions per capita and per dollar of GDP>> not only an increase in efficiency

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/pdfs/climateindicators-full-2014.pdfEESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

What changes to the economy may

account for this drop?

David OwenGreen ManhattanThe New Yorker 2004

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Outline

Introduction to the National Climate Assessmentand other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]

Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA

A little science [dynamics of climate change in theAmerican Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertaintyin projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]

A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report ofthe National Academies

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in Southwestern North America

Seager, R., et al. 2007. Originally published in Science Express on 5 April 2007Science, vol. 316 no. 5828 pp. 1181-1184. doi: 10.1126/science.1139601

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

A mechanisms-based approach to detecting recent anthropogenic hydro-climate change

Seager and Naik 2012, in J ClimateAlso recall Hall 2014, in Science>> March 30 lecture, on precipitation in climate change EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in Southwestern North America (i) a contribution from the change

in mean circulation [dynamics]

(ii) a contribution from the change in mean humidity [thermodynamic]

(iii) a contribution from eddies

Seager et al. 2007, in ScienceNews items at www.ldeo.columbia.edu

Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years:uncertainty due to internal variability

Linear trends 2010-2060 for single simulations in alarge ensemble

Deser et al. 2014, in J. Climate

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

single run with

least

most

warming

Runs with contrasted trends in SLP

positive

negative

Recall that the mid-latitude winter is characterized by: strong internal variability [low predictability]

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

Outline

Introduction to the National Climate Assessmentand other US Govt efforts in “climate services” (NOAA), [lots of web portals, online tools…]

Your reading and discussion of regional chapters of the NCA

A little science [dynamics of climate change in theAmerican Southwest – Seager et al. 2007; uncertaintyin projected 50-year temperature trends over North America – Deser et al. 2012]

A final word from America’s Climate Choices – a report ofthe National Academies

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

America’s Climate Choices (2011)-- a report of the National Academies

The United States lacks an overarching national strategy to respond to climate change

Climate change poses significant risks for a wide range of human and natural systems

The climate system is highly complex, as are the human institutions that are affected by and that must respond to climate change.

Iterative risk management is a flexible and powerful approach for addressing the complex challenges of climate change.

EESC 4404 – 3/4/2015

List of additional resources

US Global Change Research Program http://www.globalchange.gov/

National Climate Assessment http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessmenthttp://nca2014.globalchange.gov/http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/indicators

National Academies: America’s Climate Choiceshttp://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/sample-page/panel-reports/americas-climate-choices-final-report/

www.climate.govhttp://www.climate.gov/decision-supporthttp://www.climate.gov/decision-support/department/decision-support-toolshttp://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/state-and-local-plans

Energy Information Administrationhttp://www.eia.gov/state/maps.cfm

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