vulnerability assessment - exposure limits...23 1 = initial isolation zone: 155 meters 2 = daytime...

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1 Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits Respirator Standards April 17, 2001 Art Stuempfle OptiMetrics, Inc.

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Page 1: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

1

Vulnerability Assessment -

Exposure Limits

Respirator Standards

April 17, 2001

Art Stuempfle

OptiMetrics, Inc.

Page 2: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

2

Overview

To establish rationale and

reasonable/supportable test standards

for NIOSH to certify performance of

vendor respirators

Objective

Purpose

Why

Select likely Toxic Industrial Chemicals

(TIC) and Chemical Warfare Agents (CWA) of

use. Estimate vapor challenge levels

Identify credible scenarios

Page 3: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

3

Vulnerability

Assessment

Challenge

Concentration

Delivery

Methods

Vulnerability

Protectability

Toxicology

Page 4: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

4

Literature Survey

Reports/Articles Reviewed: 34

Findings

90% of reports are non-specific regarding:

Scenario

Venue

Intent of incident

Probable dissemination devices

Type of material dispersed

Page 5: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

5

SCENARIOS

CONSIDERED

Indoors

Public Meeting Area

Entertainment Centers

Transportation Nodes

Public Office Building

Outdoors

Town Center

Open-Air Stadium

Boardwalk at Beach

Page 6: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

6

Selection Criteria

Selection Criteria:

Toxicity and quantity required for desired effect

Acquisition ease and availability of compound

Dissemination properties and suitability for

dispersion

Handling requirements and transportability to

proposed incident site

Page 7: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

7

Relative Inhalation Toxicities

LCT50 (mg-min/m3)

VX 10

Soman (GD) 50

Sarin (GB) 100

Sulfur Mustard (HD) 1500

Hydrogen Cyanide (AC) 2500

Phosgene 3200

Methyl Isocyanate >4600

Page 8: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

8

Relative Inhalation Toxicities

LCT50 (mg-min/m3) (Cont)

Sarin (GB) 100

Cyanogen Chloride (CK) 11,000

Hydrogen Sulfide 25,000

Chlorine 35,000

Bromine 45,000

Ethylene Oxide 420,000

Carbon Monoxide ~700,000

Page 9: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

9

Indoor Scenario

Complexities

Building Structure

Compartmentalization

Ventilation Characteristics

Source Type and Location

Remediation Techniques

Page 10: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

10

Computation

Requirements

Specific Incident

Venue Description

Source Term

Chemicals of Interest

Quantity of Chemical Released

Dissemination Method

Page 11: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

11

Ventilation Kinetics

Natu

ral

Ven

tila

tio

n

CoSpill

Vapor Deposition

X

Positive Pressure Ventilation

Z

H

Ci

HVAC SystemCollective Protection

Y

F

Page 12: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

12

InDeVap Agent Profile

Typical Spray Release

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31

Time (minutes)

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

mg

/m3

)

Natural Ventilation

Positive Pressure Fan

Remediation MethodPositive Pressure Fan

Remediation Method

Natural Ventilation10 Minute Spray

Release

10 Minute Spray

Release

Page 13: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

13

Venues Considered

Large Meeting Room

Auditorium/Theater

Office Building

Airport Concourse

Shopping Mall Store

Shopping Mall Food Court

Page 14: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

14

GB Source Descriptions

Bottle

Bottle

Bottle

Knapsack

Pull Luggage

Luggage Cart

Spill

Spray

Explosive

Explosive

Explosive

Explosive

1 Liter

0.5-1 Liter

1-10 Liter

25 lbs

50 lbs

200 lbs

Container Method Amount

Indoor

Page 15: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

15

GB - 1 Liter spill

room size: 68' x 51' x 11'

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 101 201 301 401 501

minutes

mg

/m3

With AC

No AC

Page 16: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

16

GB - 1 Liter pre-val spray, 2 minute discharge;

room size: 68' x 51' x 11'

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1 101 201 301 401 501

minutes

mg

/m3

With AC

No AC

Page 17: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

17

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

AC on AC off

Spill

Spray

Explosive

Concentration after 30 Minutes

1 liter, Meeting Room 1

Page 18: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

18

GB - 11.35 Liter explosive

room size: 68' x 51' x 11' with 3500 CFM AC

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1 7

13

19

25

31

37

43

49

55

61

67

73

79

85

minutes

mg

/ m

3

Page 19: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

19

GB - 11.35 Liter explosive

room size: 128' x 160' x 33' with 9100 CFM AC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1

19

37

55

73

91

109

127

145

163

181

199

217

235

253

271

289

minutes

mg

/ m

3

Page 20: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

20

Indoor Scenario CWA

Trends

Practically any vapor concentration level is

possible to achieve

Concentration-time profiles are situation

dependent

Ventilation kinetics of facility critical

Concentration levels can exceed IDLH values for

long times [IDLH = 0.1 mg/m3 for GB]

Page 21: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

21

Outdoor Venues

Urban Setting

(Times Square)

Open-Air

Stadium

Boardwalk

At Beach

Sarin

(GB)

Nerve

(VX)

Mustard

(HD)

Knapsack

(Explosive)

Sprayer

(Upper Deck)

Cropduster

(Aircraft Spray)

Venue Hazard Source

Page 22: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

22

Source Descriptions

Bottle (GB)

Bottle (VX)

Knapsack (VX)

Knapsack (GB)

Cropduster (HD)

Spill

Spray

Spray

Explosive

Spray

5-55 Gallons

0.5-1 Liter

25 Lbs

25 Lbs

~1000 Liters

Container Method Amount

Outdoor

Page 23: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

23

1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters

2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters

3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters

4 = Modeled Hazard: 635 meters (to no effects level)

4

> 1% Lethal Dose (max extent: 129 meters)

(10 mg-min/m3)

> No Deaths Dose (max extent: 169 meters)

(6 mg-min/m3)

> No Effects Dose (max extent: 635 meters)

(0.5 mg-min/m3)

Visual Comparison:

5 gallon GB spill, Stability ‘C’, Wind Speed 2mps

Accumulated Dosage Values at ERG Zone Distances:Zone Dosage (mg-min/m3) Cloud Arrival Time (min) Cloud End Time (min)

Isolation 6.669e+00 0.9 62

Day Protect Less than Minimal N/A N/A

Night Protect Less than Minimal N/A N/A

2000 Emergency Response Guidebook

vs.

Model Predictions of D2PCw (EMIS ver. 3.1)

3

2

1

Page 24: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

24

1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters

2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters

3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters

4 = Modeled Hazard: 1,976 meters (to minimal effects level)

> 1% Lethal Dose (max extent: 402 meters)

(10 mg-min/m3)

> No Deaths Dose (max extent: 528 meters)

(6 mg-min/m3)

> No Effects Dose (max extent: 1,976 meters)

(0.5 mg-min/m3)

Visual Comparison:

55 gallon GB spill, Stability ‘C’, Wind Speed 2mps

Accumulated Dosage Values at ERG Zone Distances:Zone Dosage (mg-min/m3) Cloud Arrival Time (min) Cloud End Time (min)

Isolation 5.582e+01 0.9 62

Day Protect 7.336e-01 9.8 77

Night Protect Less than Minimal N/A N/A

2000 Emergency Response Guidebook

vs.

Model Predictions of D2PCw (EMIS ver. 3.1)

4

3

2

1

1

2

Page 25: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

25

Observations: Outdoor

Scenarios

Large areas involved

Meteorology dependent

Page 26: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

26

Conclusions

Vulnerability Assessment Factors Involve

Delivery Methods

Toxicology

Concentration Challenge

Protectability

Toxicities of TIC and CWA Span Orders of

Magnitude in Values

Challenge Levels are Venue Specific

Page 27: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled

27

Comments Requested

Alternative Scenario Suggestions

Hot Zone Entry/Exit Times for Responders

(Police, HAZMAT, Firefighters, Cleanup Crews,

Others)

Page 28: Vulnerability Assessment - Exposure Limits...23 1 = Initial Isolation Zone: 155 meters 2 = Daytime Protection Zone: 1,600 meters 3 = Nighttime Protection Zone: 3,400 meters 4 = Modeled