Voter Turnout

Historical Qualifications Religion (eliminated by state legislatures) Property (eliminated by state legislatures) Race (eliminated by 15th Amendment) Sex (eliminated by 19th Amendment) Income (eliminated by 24th Amendment) Literacy (eliminated by Voting Rights Act of 1965) Minimum age of 21 (eliminated by 26th Amendment)

Current qualifications (set by states) Citizenship Residency Age Registration (except ND)

Other qualifications (depending on state) Most states prevent convicted felons from voting

(Maine and Vermont allow even currently incarcerated felons to vote)

Some ban anyone ever convicted of a felony from ever voting again

Homeless Insane in insane asylums Some cities allow non-citizen residents to vote in

local elections

VAP: Voting Age PopulationVEP: Voter Eligibility Population, factoring out non-citizens, felons, homeless etc.

Who could vote before the Civil War?

A black business owner? An 18 year old college student? A nurse and mother of 4 boys? The wife of a US Senator? A poor drifter? A man who rents a room from the local hotel?

Who can vote today? An illiterate woman from the Ozark Mountains? A 19 year old high school drop out? An illegal immigrant? An unregistered business owner? A felon in prison for 2nd degree murder? A convicted smuggler who has served his time and is

now a law-abiding citizen? The guy with a “Will work for food” sign on the

street corner

Voter turnout US: ~50% in presidential elections, 30-40% in

midterms congressional elections Even lower in state/local elections. Decline since 1960

YearVoting-agepopulation

Voterregistration Voter turnout

Turnout of voting-age population (percent)

2008* 231,229,580 NA 132,618,580* 56.8%

2006 220,600,000 135,889,600 80,588,000 37.1%

2004 221,256,931 174,800,000 122,294,978 55.3

2002 215,473,000 150,990,598 79,830,119 37.0

2000 205,815,000 156,421,311 105,586,274 51.3

1998 200,929,000 141,850,558 73,117,022 36.4

1996 196,511,000 146,211,960 96,456,345 49.1

1994 193,650,000 130,292,822 75,105,860 38.8

1992 189,529,000 133,821,178 104,405,155 55.1

1990 185,812,000 121,105,630 67,859,189 36.5

1988 182,778,000 126,379,628 91,594,693 50.1

1986 178,566,000 118,399,984 64,991,128 36.4

1984 174,466,000 124,150,614 92,652,680 53.1

1982 169,938,000 110,671,225 67,615,576 39.8

1980 164,597,000 113,043,734 86,515,221 52.6

1978 158,373,000 103,291,265 58,917,938 37.2

1976 152,309,190 105,037,986 81,555,789 53.6

1974 146,336,000 96,199,0201 55,943,834 38.2

1972 140,776,000 97,328,541 77,718,554 55.2

1970 124,498,000 82,496,7472 58,014,338 46.6

1968 120,328,186 81,658,180 73,211,875 60.8

1966 116,132,000 76,288,2833 56,188,046 48.4

1964 114,090,000 73,715,818 70,644,592 61.9

1962 112,423,000 65,393,7514 53,141,227 47.3

1960 109,159,000 64,833,0965 68,838,204 63.1

Comparable industrialized nations in West, much higher turnout: as high as ~90%

The US imposes no penalties (fines, govt. papers stamped “DID NOT VOTE”) for not voting, as other countries do

32 countries, including Australia and Argentina have compulsory voting laws

Bolivian non-voters have their bank accounts frozen for up to 3 months

Nonvoters are fined in Belgium and Brazil Possible imprisonment in Fiji and Egypt

Other nations have multiparty systems that provide voters more choice

Other nations have automatic/same-day registration

Reasons for low voter turnout Institutional barriers

Registration: meant to limit voting fraud National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (“Motor Voter Bill”)

was designed to increase voter turnout Allows people to register when renewing drivers license Various public offices also offer registration forms Requires states to allow registration by mail Has had insignificant effect on voter turnout

Long ballot: excessive # of offices and issues to vote on Type of election

General election turnout higher than primary election turnout Chief executive election higher than legislative (midterm)

election turnout. Presidential elections have highest turnout National election higher than state election turnout

Difficulties in obtaining absentee ballots (no longer a real problem)

Too many elections – “ballot fatigue” “voter burnout” Young people (18 – 24) have lowest turnout. Passage of

26th Amendment naturally reduced voter turnout a large non-voting segment of the population was now

included in voter turnout rates

Political reasons Lack of political efficacy (Nothing changes!) Dissatisfaction with candidates, parties, politics, or the

campaign Lack of strong 2-party competition (My guy will lose,

so why bother?) Weakness of parties in mobilizing voters

Who votes? Who doesn’t? Who cares? Characteristics of those likely to vote

Level of education: greatest predictor of voting that cuts across other factors. Those with high levels of education (regardless of race, sex, or income), are more likely to vote than those with low levels

Income: higher incomes vote more Age: older voters (except for the very old) vote more

Still, 75+ voters vote more than next highest age group of 45-54

Greatest sense of civic duty (basic responsibility of citizenship)

Race: Whites vote more than Blacks, who vote more than Asians, who vote more than Hispanics

Youth have greatest sense of apathy (I don’t care) Minorities have greatest sense of alienation (They don’t

care)

Does low turnout matter? Older Whites with higher levels of income and

education are overrepresented in election results Problem of class bias Rebuttal: some studies show that although nonvoters are

demographically different, they are not politically different from voters generally, and would not vote in a significantly different way than those who do vote

Some argue we must make it as easy to vote as possible Some argue that if non-voters don’t care enough to

make the current sacrifice, why bother making it easier?

Who Votes for Whom?

The Split Personality Voter Activity Every factor to be represented and labeled

Quiz the following day

Factors Affecting Voter Behavior

Who votes for whom?

I. GeographyA. Solid South: traditionally Dem., but

increasingly Rep.B. Great Plains: Republican trendC. Rocky Mountain region: Rep. trendD. New England: traditionally Rep., but

increasingly Dem in recent yrs.E. Great Lakes region: Democratic trend, but

several swing states (Ohio)F. Republicans have built on the “L” – Rocky

Mnts.-SouthG. Far West: Democratic trend

II. Presence of an especially strong presidential candidate: coattail effect (Obama)

III. TimeA. Maintaining elections: political alignment remains same

(eg: 1960, 1964)B. Deviating elections: temporary change in political

alignment (eg: 1952, 1956)C. Critical (“realigning”) elections: long-term change in

political alignment (eg: 1860, 1932)D. Midterm elections: party in power has lost seats in

Congress every midterm election since 1983 (except 1998 and 2002)

IV. Political party identification: psychological sense of attachment to a political party

A. Probably the strongest predictor of voting behavior (who one votes for)

B. However, more voters likely “vote the man, not the party” more recently

C. Straight ticket voting: decline in recent years. Facilitated by party-column ballot

D. Split ticket voting: increase in recent yrs. Facilitated by the office-column ballot

E. Some party members are classified as “strong,” and others as “weak”

F. Independents1. Rising # (~1/3) decline in Dem. & Rep. members

2. Some are “leaners.” Independent Republicans or Ind. Dems.

3. Others are pure independents, with no pattern of voting behavior (~12%)

4. Many tend to be young, college educated, with above average incomes

V. Demographic factorsA. Sex

1. Males: more likely than females to vote Rep.2. Females: more likely than males to vote Dem (Gender gap)

B. Race1. White: more likley than nonwhites to vote Rep2. Nonwhite: more likely to vote Dem. Blacks most loyal Dem

voters

C. Social classA. Lower: more likely DemB. Upper: more likely Rep

D. ReligionA. Protestant: more likely RepB. Catholic: traditionally Dem., Bush 43 won the Cath. vote in

2004C. Jewish: more likely to vote DemD. More religious: vote more regularly and more Rep

VI. Other FactorsA. Labor unions tend to vote Democrat

1. Teachers unions

2. ABA (American Bar Association)