vol 34, no 10 november 8, 2016 - constant...

19
1 VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 REVIEW AND PREVIEW This month report comes out just a day before the USA 2016 presidential election take place. Like war markets, election markets are also often filled with surprises, making the art of forecasting a little more challenging than usual because both cycles and technical studies tend to get distorted. MMA’s geocosmic studies continue to work fine, but the amplitude or narrowness is affected by the “noise” generated from the polls. When the leader of the incumbent party moves up in the pools, stock markets rise. When the opposing candidate rises in the polls the stock markets fall. However, within the next day or two, the most dreaded election in modern USA history, involving the two most unpopular candidates in modern USA history, will be over. For students of geocosmic studies, this was truly a Saturn square Neptune experience. Saturn rules accountability, honor, and the quest for truth, while Neptune (in hard aspect to Saturn) can indicate betrayal, scandal, deception, and mistrust. It is a period where idealism turns into shattered disappointment, where faith in authority turns into cynicism about one’s motivation. That is the bad news about what we are going through. The good news is that it is ending and we are moving from a hard Saturn aspect to Neptune, into a harmonious Saturn aspect to Uranus, known as a waning trine. This is a period in which the finer qualities of Saturn will likely rise to the surface, and be rewarded for their expression (accountability, achievement, honesty, integrity). The central time band will be in effect December 25, 2016 through November 11, 2017. My take on this is that whoever wins will make concerted efforts to behave with maturity, work hard to bring unity and respect back into politics, and will be accountable and responsible – for about one year. After that, the basic character and pattern of that person – the flaws that made him or her so reprehensible to the American public – could reappear and created new crises between the government, its leaders, and the electorate it serves. In terms of financial markets, the latest MMA geocosmic critical reversal date (CRD) was October 25-26. That was the day of the all-time high in NASDAQ futures (unconfirmed by the DJIA or S&P), the low in the Euro, and two days before the low in Treasuries. Our next CRD is a three-star type on November 25, +/- 3 trading days, which is just one day after the first passage (of three) of the Jupiter/Pluto waning square. You may remember that this planetary pair cycle started with its conjunction in December 2007, which was the official month that started the Great Recession. It is not that another great recession will start then, but many of themes present in 2007-2009 are apt to return, such as the four D’s: debt, deficits, defaults and downgrades, plus taxes. What may protect the financial system from repeating that drama this time (from a cosmic viewpoint) is that Saturn will also form its long-term waning trine to Uranus during the same period (late 2016 through the first three quarters of 2017). Historically, the Saturn/Uranus trine has coincided with long-term cycle highs in the stock market. That’s sounds good – except that once those highs ended, a crushing bear market began, as in its last instance,

Upload: others

Post on 31-May-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

1

VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016

REVIEW AND PREVIEW This month report comes out just a day before the USA 2016 presidential election take place. Like war markets, election markets are also often filled with surprises, making the art of forecasting a little more challenging than usual because both cycles and technical studies tend to get distorted. MMA’s geocosmic studies continue to work fine, but the amplitude or narrowness is affected by the “noise” generated from the polls. When the leader of the incumbent party moves up in the pools, stock markets rise. When the opposing candidate rises in the polls the stock markets fall. However, within the next day or two, the most dreaded election in modern USA history, involving the two most unpopular candidates in modern USA history, will be over. For students of geocosmic studies, this was truly a Saturn square Neptune experience. Saturn rules accountability, honor, and the quest for truth, while Neptune (in hard aspect to Saturn) can indicate betrayal, scandal, deception, and mistrust. It is a period where idealism turns into shattered disappointment, where faith in authority turns into cynicism about one’s motivation. That is the bad news about what we are going through. The good news is that it is ending and we are moving from a hard Saturn aspect to Neptune, into a harmonious Saturn aspect to Uranus, known as a waning trine. This is a period in which the finer qualities of Saturn will likely rise to the surface, and be rewarded for their expression (accountability, achievement, honesty, integrity). The central time band will be in effect December 25, 2016 through November 11, 2017. My take on this is that whoever wins will make concerted efforts to behave with maturity, work hard to bring unity and respect back into politics, and will be accountable and responsible – for about one year. After that, the basic character and pattern of that person – the flaws that made him or her so reprehensible to the American public – could reappear and created new crises between the government, its leaders, and the electorate it serves. In terms of financial markets, the latest MMA geocosmic critical reversal date (CRD) was October 25-26. That was the day of the all-time high in NASDAQ futures (unconfirmed by the DJIA or S&P), the low in the Euro, and two days before the low in Treasuries. Our next CRD is a three-star type on November 25, +/- 3 trading days, which is just one day after the first passage (of three) of the Jupiter/Pluto waning square. You may remember that this planetary pair cycle started with its conjunction in December 2007, which was the official month that started the Great Recession. It is not that another great recession will start then, but many of themes present in 2007-2009 are apt to return, such as the four D’s: debt, deficits, defaults and downgrades, plus taxes. What may protect the financial system from repeating that drama this time (from a cosmic viewpoint) is that Saturn will also form its long-term waning trine to Uranus during the same period (late 2016 through the first three quarters of 2017). Historically, the Saturn/Uranus trine has coincided with long-term cycle highs in the stock market. That’s sounds good – except that once those highs ended, a crushing bear market began, as in its last instance,

Page 2: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

2

which was July 1972 through May 1973. You may remember what happened then politically as well as in terms of the USA stock market. The DJIA made it all-time high (at the time) in January 1973, right in the middle of this transit, following the 1972 election of Richard Nixon. However, the DJIA then lost 46% of this value in the next 23 months as Nixon was forced to resign due to the Watergate scandal. GEOCOSMIC CRITICAL REVERSAL DATES The following geocosmic critical reversal dates for all markets are based on the studies published in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles. The more stars, the higher the correlation to a reversal. Three stars have the strongest correlation. Look for cycle crests or troughs to form within three trading days. Nov 25*** Dec 12* Dec 31*** (Dec 26-Jan 3)

U.S. STOCKS COULD BE STARTING A NEW PRIMARY CYCLE Since our last report, the NASDAQ futures made another new all-time high on October 25, right on our last CRD, and again it was unaccompanied by the S&P futures or the cash Dow Jones Industrial Average. As stated last issue, “The S&P all-time high remains August 23, while the DJIA all-time high remains August 15. Thus, these markets continue to exhibit intermarket bearish divergence patterns until the S&P and DJIA can post new highs. This is a concern from a geocosmic point of view, for the highs in the DJIA and S&P occurred during the central time band of the Saturn/Neptune waning square, which ended September 10. Usually, long-term cycle highs or lows unfold during the central time band of such an aspect, although there are occasions when it can happen up to nine months outside of that range.” Both the DJIA and S&P futures continued their decline on Friday, November 4, falling to their lowest levels since early July. The DJIA dropped to a low of 17,883 and the December S&P to 2078.75. However, over the weekend, FBI director James Comey announced that it would once again end its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email practices while Secretary of State. On that news, the stock markets exploded, with the DJIA up over 300 points in the first two hours of trading Monday morning. The “gap up” above the entire trading range of Friday implies that this begins a new primary cycle, and the longer-term trend remains bullish. Long-Term Cycle Status The long-term cycle status did not change on the recent decline. As stated previously, “The 6.5- and 4-year cycle lows in the DJIA remain intact at 15,370 back on August 24, 2015. The S&P completed its long-term cycle lows in February 2016, for a stunning case of intermarket bullish divergence to the DJIA shortly afterwards. We are thus in the early stages of both the 6.5- and 4-year cycles… Since our labeling of long-term cycles is bullish, our strategy (for investors) has been (and continues to be) bullish, which means we look to buy every primary and 50-week cycle low.” The current 50-week cycle began with the low of 17,063 on June 27 in the DJIA, and 1981.50 in the nearby S&P falls on the same day. There are usually two or three primary cycles within a 50-week cycle (sometimes four). The low of November 4 was probably the end of the first primary cycle. If so, it will now take a close below that recent low to downgrade this indicator from bullish to neutral or bearish. Our report of last month was quite remarkable in its statement, “An earlier sign of weakness will arise on a weekly close below 17,882 in the DJIA, which will downgrade its weekly trend status from bullish to neutral.” Friday’s low was 17,883. The 17,882 support level for the bull market held almost perfectly.

Page 3: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

3

New intermediate-term geocosmic signatures will start up this month. On November 24, Jupiter will make its first of three waning square passages to Pluto, as discussed in the introductory comments this issue. The central time band of this Jupiter/Pluto waning square will be in effect November 24, 2016 through August 4, 2017. Jupiter will also enter an opposition aspect with Uranus, December 26, 2016 through September 27, 2017, thus forming a cardinal T-square with Pluto during much of that period. The highly respected French Mundane Astrologer, Andre Barbault, has written that these types of cardinal T-squares (involving Jupiter and Uranus) are often present when there is a shock to the world financial system and stock markets. Given that the long-term Saturn/Uranus waning trine is also in effect during this same period, and has a historical correspondence to long-term cycle crests followed by bear markets, all readers must be very vigilant in these next few months for such a possibility. Ideally, a new all-time high would happen first, according to both cycle studies and the Saturn/Uranus trine history. As the U.S. stock market is now beginning its second of two or three primary cycle phases, we will be watching for its crest – and the crest of these longer-term cycles – to occur in either this or the next primary cycle. With a normal range of 38-62 weeks, the next 50-week cycle trough is due within 12 weeks of June 12, 2017. For now, the 50-week cycle is still pointed up, suggesting new all-time highs ahead, or at least a re-test of the all-time highs of August. A move below last week’s low of 17,883 in the DJIA or 2078.75 in the December S&P contract could necessitate a change in this outlook. The Primary Cycle The 17,883 low in the DJIA and 2078.75 in the S&P futures on November 4, occurred in the 18th week of 13-21-week primary cycle in the DJIA and the 18th week of the 15-23-week primary cycle in the nearby S&P futures. Thus, that was in the normal time band for the primary cycle trough, and suggests that this begins the first week of a new primary cycle in each. In support of this labeling, the DJIA has

Page 4: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

4

already rallied above its 42-day moving average, currently at 18,168. The S&P, however, has not risen above its 45-day MA, currently at 2147.75. These moving averages represent levels of resistance that – once they are broken to the upside - serve as confirmation signals that a primary cycle trough has been completed. The DJIA has satisfied this criterion, but the S&P has not, thus leaving open the possibility that Monday’s big opening rally could just be a case of “noise,” and November 7 could instead start the 19th week of an older primary cycle. Since both markets opened with “gap up” above Friday’s trading range, any close below Friday’s close would support the idea that this is still an older primary cycle, and probably still headed lower into the November 25 three-star CRD period, +/- 3 trading days.

From a technical point of view, there are other reasons why we need to be a little suspicious of the low of November 4. There was no case of bullish oscillator divergence on November 4. There was no case of intermarket bullish divergence between the DJIA and S&P futures, as both made new cycle lows then. However, the December NASAQ futures did not make a new low then, so there is a possible case of intermarket bullish divergence if one considers that – which is like considering the effect of a third party candidate on the final results of the USA presidential election. Furthermore, it was not a geocosmic critical reversal date (CRD) – at least not one that we would have thought strong enough to coincide with a primary cycle. Venus did make a trine to Uranus on November 4, following its conjunction to Saturn on October 29, which is a translation (and preview) of the forthcoming Saturn/Uranus trine that will first occur on December 24.

Given that the markets opened with a “gap up” this week, my bias is that November 4 was a primary

cycle trough, and this will start the first week of a new primary cycle in each. Supporting that view on the S&P daily chart is the fact that prices had broken below the baseline of a descending triangle (see daily chart) and are now back into it. As long as it remains back above that baseline, it is bullish. That bias will change if prices close below last week’s close, or even if the daily S&P starts to close back below the lower line of its descending triangle. To be bullish, it needs three consecutive days of closing above that

Page 5: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

5

line. If correct and this is a new primary cycle, then new all-time highs, or at least a test of the August highs, can be anticipated within this primary cycle, maybe even as early as November 25 or late December when the Jupiter/Uranus opposition occurs along with the Saturn/Uranus trine and Uranus station.

If both markets exceed their all-time highs of August, then the upside price targets become 19,488

+/- 286 and 19,872 +/- 522 in the DJIA, and 2290.75 +/- 37.50 and 2319.25 +/- 61 in the nearby S&P futures contract. In the event that both markets fall below their closes of November 4, then this will have to be labeled the 19th week of an older primary cycle, with downside price targets of 17,865 +/- 190 and 17,773 +/- 106 in the DJIA. Note that the 17,883 low on November 4 qualifies. In December S&P, the downside targets would be 2078.25 +/- 25 and 2088.25 +/- 11.50. The 2078.75 low of November 4 was right on the first price target, and thus it fits here too. These are additional reasons to think the low of November 4 was a primary cycle bottom. That is, the price targets and time bands for the lows fit as of November 4. However, it is also possible that there could be another sell off yet this month in which one market takes out the low of November 4 and the other does not, and if so, we will probably also see a case of bullish oscillator divergence. If that happens around November 25, it will be an excellent buy signal, based on MMA’s market timing methodology.

Trading Strategies: Our last issue stated, “Position traders may remain long with a stop-loss on a close below 17,063 in the DJIA and 1981.50 in the nearby S&P contract. You may take some profits on a re-test of the all-time highs in the next month, especially if those highs occur with a new case of intermarket bearish divergence between the indices, or with a case of oscillator divergence.” This advice remains intact. Aggressive traders, however, were stopped out of remaining longs on the close below 17,992 and 2100 in the DJIA and Dec S&P respectively after having covered part of that position for healthy profits earlier. Aggressive traders may look to re-enter from the long side now in the DJIA (a decline back to 18,050 +/- 50 would be ideal, but don’t hold your breath for that). In the Dec S&P futures, you may also

Page 6: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

6

look to buy now, and ideally as close to 2115 as possible, with a stop-loss on a close below 2078. You may look to cover all for profits, and sell short if a case of intermarket bearish divergence arises between these two indices, or if there is a case of bearish oscillator divergence at a new high for one of these indices, with a stop-loss based on both then making new all-time highs, especially if that happens around November 25. In the event that November 25 +/- 3 trading days is a double bottom low with intermarket or oscillator bullish divergence between the two indices, make sure you get long. Short-Term Reversal Dates in U.S. Stocks: Look for isolated highs or lows in these solar-lunar periods, from which prices reverse at least 2.5% (and better if 4%):

Nov 4* Nov 7-8* Nov 9-10* Dec 5*** Dec 8-9* Dec 16*

GOLD AND SILVER RALLY, THEN FALL Right after our last report, Gold collapsed below the lower line of a downward channel on October 4 that was positioned around 1294. It eventually bottomed three days later, on October 7, at 1243.20 and has since moved back into that previous downward channel, reaching a high of 1309.30 on November 2. During that move down, Gold remained above a weekly downward channel that it broken above earlier in the year. Consequently, the longer-term cycles (7.4-year) still remains bullish, but the intermediate-term cycle is vulnerable to an 11-14 month cycle trough that could still take prices lower.

Page 7: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

7

Longer-term, Gold is still bullish. As stated before, “The double bottom lows of December 3 and 17, at around 1045, represent the start of the 7.4-year cycle, a revision of our previous cycle periodicity of 8.33 years… (and) this is still only the first year of a relatively new 7.4-year cycle, which – if correct – means Gold is bullish still.” However, our report last month, just before the breakdown, stated, “… there are concerns that an intermediate-term cycle is bringing prices down. The weekly chart shows a case of bearish oscillator divergence at the high in July (higher price but lower stochastic). A break the 37-week moving average (currently at 1278.70) would confirm that a correction of the entre move up from December 2015 is underway. A normal price target would then be 1210.20 +/- 38.90. Note that an extension of a former downward trendline is present in this zone.” The sharp decline fell into the price target zone, and also held above the downward trendline, which is a positive for bulls. The rally since October 7 looks good, but not good enough to rule out another possible decline within the price target zone given above, or even back to the extension yet of that former downward trendline. The belief that the FED will raise interest rates in December would fit into that outlook, for Gold tends to fall when the Dollar rises, as it did during the last month (Dollar soared and Gold fell, and then the Dollar started to fall as Gold began to rise). This probably starts the 5th week of a newer 15-21-week primary cycle off the low of October 7 at 1243.20, basis the December contract. That low was above the former primary cycle trough of 1200.90 on May 31, and thus our basic trend study remains bullish. To continue being bullish, it needs to exceed the multi-year high of 1375.50 made in the last primary cycle on July 6, before breaking below 1243.20. Otherwise, this study will be downgraded to neutral or even bearish.

There are a couple of scenarios possible here. The most “normal” is that a major cycle crest occurred last week, November 2, at 1309.30. A 3-8 day corrective decline is now in process to the 5-7 week major cycle trough, with a normal price target of 1276.20 +/- 7.80. Today’s (Monday, November 7) low has already seen 1278.60, which is in this range, and the third day off the high of November 2. This low is

Page 8: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

8

also re-testing the former lower line of a downward channel, which is around 1280 this week. It needs to close back into that channel to be bullish short-term. If it can do that, then the next test will be the upper line of that former downward channel formation, which is currently around 1335. A move above there gives a further upside target of 1344.70 +/- 12.00, or even 1420.60 +/- 25.20.

Another possible scenario is that Gold just peaked and is starting it second and final leg down to its 11-14 month cycle low. Here the price target would be 1222 +/- 19.20. If it gets oversold, it could even fall to 1168 +/- 25.50. The first target zone is better because it covers the extension of the upper line of the former downward channel on the weekly chart. What makes this scenario interesting is that it could all happen within weeks #11-14, which would 1) be in the time band for the 11-14 month intermediate-term low (due November-February) and 2) it would be a contracted primary cycle. We consider contracted primary cycles at the end of an intermediate or long-term cycle low to be very bullish. Traders would be strongly advised to buy if that happens December 19-January 13. It would likely be the best buy signal in Gold in over a year.

For now, we will look to buy this developing major cycle trough. But be careful, for if the Fed does

indicate they will be raising rates in December, Gold could fall fast and hard. Short-Term Reversal Dates in Gold: Look for isolated highs or lows in Gold in these solar-lunar periods, and from which prices reverse at least 2.5% (and better if 3% or more): Nov 7-8* Nov 11* Nov 14** Nov 21-23** Nov 24-25* Nov 29-30* Dec 1-2** Dec 14-15* Dec 19-20** SILVER TESTING ITS RECENT LOW Like Gold, December Silver also fell hard on October 4, breaking below the lower line of a contracting triangle just below 1900, and falling all the way to 1711.50, three days later, on October 7. Like Gold, Silver has now rallied back above its 45-day moving average as it soared to 1875 on November 2. On that same day, Silver’s 18-day standard CCI oscillator reading was a whopping +333. It had fallen to -260 on October 5, two days before its low of October 7. Our rule is that there is a 75% probability of a 9% or greater rally from a low that forms within 7 trading days of a CCI reading below -200, and a 75% probability of a 9% or greater decline from a high that forms within 7 trading days of a CCI reading above +200. In this case, a 9% rally from the probable primary cycle low of 1711.50 would take prices up to 1865.50. The high on November 2 was 1875. Now, a 9% decline would take prices back to 1706 area. The other 25% of the time, the market does not yet reverse 9% nearby to a CCI reading of -200 or +200, but instead makes a higher high or lower low in price, but not a higher high or lower low in the CCI reading, for a case of bullish or bearish oscillator divergence. If either of these things happen on a critical reversal date, +/- 3 trading days, it is a usually a good risk/reward trading set up. Therefore, the high of November 2 may be a good shorting opportunity, or if Silver exceeds that 1875 high with a lower CCI reading, that will become a sell signal, especially if it happens around November 25, and/or if Gold and Silver don’t also make a new high in the same week.

Page 9: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

9

As with Gold, Silver is now beginning the 5th week of its 13-21 week primary cycle, off its low of October 7. If the market is bullish, Silver will make a 3-8 day corrective decline to a major cycle trough, with a price objective of 1793 +/- 20. Today’s (November 7) low was 1800.50, so it is already in this range. As long as it doesn’t fall below 1711, and even better if it doesn’t fall below 1750, there will be another rally to the crest of the second major cycle phase after this correction ends. That is when it will get interesting, given our CCI studies. If the next rally exhibits a case of bearish oscillator divergence (higher price, but not a higher CCI), it is a sell. If either Silver or Gold take out the high of last week, but not both, it becomes a case of intermarket bearish divergence. Either, or both, could lead to another sharp selloff, especially if the Fed indicates it is indeed ready to raise its short-term rates in December, which the movement of Saturn in the chart of the FRB implies is the case. If Silver and Gold can both exceed their highs of last week, then the next upside price target for Silver becomes 1964 +/- 30. If instead the primary cycle crest happened last week in Silver at 1875 as the CCI soared to +333, then a move down is already underway, with a downside price target of 1620 +/- 60, 1564.50 +/- 54, or 1461.50 +/- 78. My bias is it will find support this week, and then rally to the crest of the next major cycle. It is unclear whether that high will exceed the high of last week, so we need to be alert that it might in Gold or Silver, but not both. More importantly to our methodology, we want to prepare for a reversal from an important higher low around the November 25 three-star CRD. If that is a high with some divergence signals, we will sell. If it is a low with some strong technical support, we will buy. Right now, my bias is for a high, but really, my bias won’t matter until we get there and see. Trading Strategies: All traders are flat after being stopped out on the decline into October 7. Position traders may wait until November 25 +/- 3 trading days and prepare to buy or sell, depending on what the market is doing and if Gold and Silver are exhibiting any sign of intermarket divergences with one another. Aggressive short term traders may look to buy Gold and Silver now as the major cycle trough is

Page 10: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

10

due and prices of each are in their price objective zones. Start with a stop-loss on a close below the lows of October 7 in both. In the event that both are making highs around November 25, look to cover all longs and sell short, especially if there is a case of intermarket bearish divergence or oscillator divergence in either market. If that happens, we will then be preparing to buy a contracted primary cycle trough that could form December 19-January 13. That is the trade we really want if it sets up that way. Short-Term Reversal Dates in Silver: Look for isolated highs or lows in Silver (and probably Gold) in these solar-lunar periods, and from which prices reverse at least 2.5% (and better if 4%):

Oct 14* Oct 17** Oct 25-26* Oct 31* Nov 7-8* Nov 15-16** Nov 17-18**

10-YEAR NOTES CONTINUE BEAR MARKET PATTERN

Ten-Year Notes continue their bearish pattern of lower highs and lower lows of the same cycle type. On October 28, just two days after our October 25-26 two-star CRD, the nearby T-Notes market fell to 129/06.5, it lowest mark since late April. Last month’s report contained a monthly chart on both Treasury Bonds and Ten-Year Notes, and stated, “In these charts, you will note that the all-time in high in the U.S. Treasury Bonds occurred on July 11 at 177/11. The T-Notes, on the other hand, topped out four years earlier, in June 2012, at 135/29. On July 6, 2016, T-Notes made a lower secondary high at 134/07, for a stunning case of intermarket bearish divergence on a long-term chart to T-Bonds… The all-time high in

Page 11: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

11

T-Bonds occurred during the central time band of the Saturn/Neptune waning square. As written earlier, this aspect has a powerful correlation to long-term cycle highs or lows in interest rates. In the case of T-Bonds, it indicates the long-term low in long-term rates has been achieved. We can now anticipate that rates will rise, and T-Note values will go down, for the next 2-5 years, until the 18-year cycle is completed.” True to expectation, T-Notes have started a bearish pattern, which continues today. Shorter-term, however, we are re-labeling the primary cycle to reflect that November 7 begins the 16th week of the 15-21 week primary cycle, via the nearby contract as shown here. If one looks only at the December contract, an argument can be made to keep the primary cycle bottom labeled as September 13, making this the start of the 8th week of a newer primary cycle (per last month’s report). My view is that T-Notes will sink further in any event, as the Fed gears up to raise rates in December, and everyone knows this (of course, that itself may be an issue if “everyone” really knows this). Back to the charts… if this is the 16th week of the primary cycle, then a normal primary cycle is due within the next 5 weeks. It could have even happened at the low of October 28, but if so, that was an early 14-week cycle. There was bullish oscillator divergence at that low, but my bias is that it was not the primary bottom. However, a move above the 45-day moving average would suggest it was. That moving average is currently at 130/19. As long as T- Notes remain below this MA, the primary cycle can continue moving lower. Our next target is 127/22 -128/26. In terms of geocosmic signatures, our most important factors are the transit of Saturn over natal planets in the chart of the Federal Reserve Board (Dec 23, 1913), which has already started and will last into 2020. Shorter-term, there is a harmonious Jupiter transit to the FRB natal Mercury and Saturn through November 18 that might hold prices up a little longer. But the transit of the Jupiter/Pluto waning square on November 26, which includes Venus in conjunction to Pluto and square both Jupiter and Uranus (November 25-29), has the makings of powerful reversal signature for this market. Trading Strategy: All traders were stopped out longs recently long, and advised to “…. sell all rallies once T-Notes fall below 129/26, with a stop-loss on a close above 132.” Stay short with this same stop-loss or a close above 131/19, depending on your risk allowance. EURO FALLS TO HALF-PRIMARY BOTTOM AND THEN ATTEMPTS RECOVERY

Since our last report, the Euro has fallen to a new 7-month low of 1.0848 on our last two-star CRD, October 25. It has now taken out the low that started the primary cycle on June 24th, the day of the Brexit voting results. The low of October 25 was in the 18th week of the primary cycle, and thus is probably a 12-18 week half-primary cycle trough. If so, a sharp 1-5 week rally can take place to the crest of the second half-primary cycle. It is possible that crest has already occurred with the high of 1.1143 on November 4. A look at the daily chart will show that was a test of the extension of the upward trendline in a former triangle formation. It was also a test of the 69-day moving average, which is normal in a bearish primary cycle trying to post a half-primary cycle crest. Thus, criteria for a half-primary cycle crest are being met, but not yet confirmed. If the half-primary cycle crest did occur late last week, then the Euro is headed lower – much lower – over the next 9-15 weeks. A stated before, “… if at any time it breaks below the lower line of this triangle, currently at 1.1070-1.1080 and rising, then… the danger is that it could plunge, first to the 1.0900-1.0950 support zone, but possibly down to par (1.0000) by next summer.” It could go even lower, but we will hold off that call until a later issue. For now, a break below 1.0848 points to 1.0626 +/- .0087 as the next price target.

Page 12: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

12

As with all markets, we are focused on the November 25 three-star CRD. With Venus conjunct Pluto, and both planets forming a T-square to the Jupiter/Uranus opposition, we anticipate a major reversal then. Venus and Pluto both rule currencies, and they are at the midpoint of the explosive Jupiter/Uranus opposition. To us, this is major, but we don’t know yet whether that will be a high or a low. If it is a high and still struggling to get back above the former upward trendline to the previously broken triangle, we would sell short. In the meantime, there may be support around 1.0995 +/- .0035 if the market has not yet completed its second half-primary cycle crest. There was no sign of bearish oscillator divergence at that high. Thus, it is possible that if this decline is only corrective, the Euro may get to a higher high under weaker stochastics, and that would set up a stronger sell signal.

Trading Strategy: Position traders may stand aside until we get to the period around November 25. If the Euro is rallying into that period, but still struggling with the extension of the former upward trendline, you may sell short, with a stop-loss on a close above 1.1560. Aggressive traders may look to sell short now (ideally above or around 1.1100) with a stop-loss on a close above that extended former trendline. CRUDE OIL – A NEW PRIMARY CYCLE? by Nitin Bhandari, MMTA Graduate

Since our report of last month, crude oil has made a new cycle high of 51.93 on October 19 and a probable primary cycle low of 43.57 on November 4. Last month`s report stated “This rally was followed by a double bottom new multi-year low of 26.05 made on February 11, 2016. More than likely this multi-year low of 26.05 was an 18-year cycle low with a contracted 9-year cycle low and a contracted 3-year cycle low. As longer term cycles come due, shorter cycles distort.” The month of November starts the ninth month from multi-year low of 26.05 made on February 11, 2016. The longer-term cycle is very bullish unless prices fall below the low of 26.05.

Page 13: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

13

November 7 starts 14th week of newer primary cycle off that 39.19 low of August 3, 2016. This also starts either the 7th week of second 5-8 week major cycle or the 1st week of third major cycle. The low of 43.57 on November 4, probably was a second major cycle low and prices may rally for 2-10 days to form 3rd major cycle crest. The price target for this rally would be 47.75 +/- 0.99. Once this 3rd phase is completed, prices may sell off for the 3rd and final major cycle phase of the current primary cycle. The price target would be 41.10 +/- 1.50.

There is another rare possibility (although it is too early to confirm), that this starts the 1st week of

newer primary cycle off that 43.57 low of November 4, which means the primary cycle started from the low of August 3, and was a contracted 13- week primary cycle (normal range 15-23 weeks). This kind of phenomenon is seen when the earlier primary cycle was expanded, and in fact the earlier primary cycle was indeed an expanded 25-week primary cycle. In this case, prices will rally a minimum 2-5 weeks or, more likely, over 8 weeks. The initial price target for this rally would be 56.31 +/- 1.51. The confirmation would be if prices close above 45-day moving average, which is 47.47. As mentioned in our last report “This also starts 2nd week of second major cycle phase. The low of 42.55 on September 20 was first 5-8 week major cycle low (actual length 7 weeks). The price target for this 2nd major cycle crest is 50.10 +/- 1.50. Once this major cycle crest is confirmed, we expect a 2-10 day selloff for a second major cycle trough, which is due in the next 3-6 weeks. If this cycle is bullish, crude oil will make a new high past Tuesday of 9th week (October 4). This cycle remains bullish until the primary cycle low is taken out, which is 39.19. That mark is important.” Still, 39.19 remains important for the longer-term cycles.

The ruler of crude oil, Neptune, will go direct on November 19. Neptune turned retrograde on June 13 and a primary cycle high of 51.67 was made on June 9. Now Neptune is turning direct and a low may have been made 2 weeks before. Would this be a primary cycle low? Probably, yes. The co-ruler of crude oil, Jupiter will make square aspect to Pluto on November 24. This aspect could exaggerate price volatility.

Page 14: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

14

Strategy: Last month`s report suggested “Traders are long with stop loss on close below 41.00. They may look to book profit on 1/3rd position at 50.50 +/ - 0.50 and another 1/3rd at 56.00 +/- .50”. We booked a nice profit on 1/3rd. Traders may look to book profit on another 1/3rd long position at 54.50 +/- 0.50. SOYBEANS – THE CORRECTIVE RALLY IS OVER? By Kat Powell, MMTA Graduate Soybeans are now in the 14th week of their normal 15-21 week primary cycle that began with the August 2 low of 944-1/4 in the January contract (938 in the March contract). This is the preferred count derived from comparing pattern formations of the corrective rally across contracts. Last month, we were monitoring the formation of bearish triangles and stated, “Short-term, we cannot rule out a rally to again challenge the 45-day MA and/or the upper triangle boundary marked in blue, or even a push higher. Triangles typically precede significant price moves...”

SOYBEANS DAILY: January Contract – Prices have three months of support illustrated with the green trendline. Note the potential to crest or trough into the November and December Forecast CRDs. Prices stayed within triangle boundaries, holding trending support lines at the lows, until October 13-16 as the Sun moved into opposition with Uranus, and then Venus ingressed into Sagittarius. Prices then broke out above the formation and crested October 27 in the critical reversal date (CRD) zone as Venus moved to a conjunction with Saturn. Prices have since fallen to short-term support at the 23-day moving average (MA) and typically will fall to the 45-day MA and/or the upper triangle boundary. Prices may also retrace to the September and October lows, only to again find support. In summary, until prices clearly break below trending support lines, traders need to be prepared for another bounce and potentially higher highs.

Page 15: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

15

My bias is that lower prices are still ahead once the rally is complete. The market may have wrapped up the “C-wave” high into the October CRD. However, another short-term push above the October high cannot be ruled out at this time. Unfortunately, these sideways flat/expanded flat rally formations can continue over time while building more complex formations. The January contract is holding support, shown in green on the daily chart, within a bullish crossover zone at 933-3/4 – 942-1/4. The 1031 crest reached a 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June high. The November contract marked a double top at 1020 at the same CRD and the March contract crested at 1037-1/4 (daily chart) with the most aggressive move up into a 50% retrace of the June high.

SOYBEANS DAILY: March Contract – Prices held support at the lower boundary of the triangle and are now trading above the 45-day MA. Note the potential to crest or trough into the November and December Forecast CRDs. Geocosmics: Neptune will station direct on November 19 and traders may remember that the June high and previous primary top (PT) occurred as Neptune stationed retrograde. Over the Thanksgiving Holiday in the U.S., Jupiter will square Pluto on November 24, immediately followed by Venus conjunct Pluto, while in square to Jupiter. On November 29, Venus will move into square with Uranus. This setup facilitates the FORECAST CRD for November 25 and with Uranus and Jupiter in the mix, large price swings with fake-out or breakout highs or lows are always possible. All traders should be aware of the potential for “gap and go” price action mixed with holiday market closure. The November CRD will occur in the 16th week of the primary cycle and offers potential for a one-year cycle low from the November 2015 longer-term low. A primary cycle low, in that time frame, that did not break below the 2015 lows, could be a buying opportunity for a seasonal rally into early 2017.

Page 16: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

16

However, the December CRD, with Mercury retrograde, may offer the real reversal energy and will be examined in next month’s report. Price Analysis: As illustrated on the weekly chart, prices closed above the 18-week MA while challenging the 50% retracement of the entire move from the November 2015 low to the June 2016 high. However, the 18-week MA has crossed below the 36-week MA. If prices now trade below both MAs, it is a confirming bearish trend indicator. If prices hold above the 18-week MA and the upper blue trendline, this rally may continue. Prices could easily hit a double top (DT) to the October highs. If prices bounce from the 45-day MA, the January contract may target 1056 +/- 11 and a 50% retrace of the move down from the June high. The March contract could test a 61.8% retrace with a target of 1067 +/-10 (see the daily charts). If prices continue immediately lower, without first overlapping the October 31 lows, the short-term target low in the January contract is 965 +/- 7, but the decline could extend to 938 +/- 9, finding support at the illustrated green line on the daily chart. A primary cycle lower target remains at 882 +/- 35 and 867 +/- 40. For the March contract, the primary cycle low target range is now 915 +/- 26.

SOYBEANS WEEKLY: Continuous rolling futures with illustrations of Venus aspect reversals. Prices closed above the 18-week MA, however the 18-week MA has crossed below the 36-week MA. If prices now trade below both MAs, it is a confirming bearish trend indicator. If prices hold above the 18-week MA and the upper blue trendline, this rally may continue. Strategies: Our last report advised that, “… all traders should prepare to go short for a downside breakdown. Watch price action at challenges to the 15- or 45-day MAs and take immediate short positions on any failure to close above those MAs based on risk allowance. Place your stops above the upper triangle boundaries, recognizing that this market could rally short-term into the October CRD zone. If that rally occurs, prepare to go short on any failure to make a new high above the August highs with a primary cycle low objective by year’s end based on the price analysis provided.

Page 17: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

17

Traders who attempted shorts last month would have been stopped out on the mid-October breakout. Any traders who went short into the October CRD should take profits on any failure to close below the 45-day MA or the multi-month support zones with respect to the price analysis provided above and your individual risk allowance. ABC counter-trend rallies are not over until they are done and position traders should stand aside until a clearer pattern emerges with a new primary cycle high or low. Aggressive traders may go short on any new immediate primary cycle high looking for a primary cycle low into the end of November or December. Alternately you may go long on any low that does not close below the noted bullish crossover zone in the nearby contract looking for another rally to at least the September highs. In summary, the pattern is not clear at this time and could break either way in this chaotic week. The next MMA Cycles Report will be issued on December 12-13.

Geocosmic Signatures for near-term: Oct 25 $G( (8.89), Oct 28 %G* (9.59**), Oct 29 $A& (8.67), Nov 1 !H( (9.08*), Nov 5 $H* (8.91), Nov 19 (V (8.86), Nov 24 ^G_ (9.60**), Nov 25 $A_ (8.70), $G^ (8.83), Nov 29 $G* (9.25*), Nov 30 !G( (9.30*), Dec 1 %H^ (9.13*), Dec 10 !A& (9.00*), Dec 12 !H* (9.42**), Dec 19 #C (9.15*), Dec 24 &H* (9.40**), Dec 25 $H^ (9.76**), Dec 26 ^K* (9.82**), Dec 29 *V (9.54**), The idea is to find a “cluster” in which there are no more than six calendar days between any two consecutive signatures, and then take the midpoint of that cluster as a critical reversal date, +/- 3 trading days. For example, there are 7 geocosmic signatures present November 19-December 1, with no more than 6 calendar days between any two consecutive ones. The midpoint is November 25. Furthermore, there is a Level 1 signature (value greater than 9.60**) on November 24. Therefore, November 25 is an important three-star Critical Reversal Date (CRD), +/- 3 trading days. PLEASE NOTE: THIS INFO IS FOR PRIVATE USE ONLY OF MMA CYCLES SUBSCRIBERS. TRANSMISSION OF THIS REPORT BY ELECTRONIC MEANS OR OTHERWISE IS ILLEGAL UNLESS PERMISSION TO DO SO IS GRANTED BY MMA, INC. Disclaimer: No guarantees are made. You are solely responsible for any action you initiate in the market. Information is provided with sincere intent, and according to our own studies and methodologies. ANNOUNCEMENTS

The Forecast 2017 Book is on schedule for completion by December 1, and release on December 15. Written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, it is one of the most unique, affordable ($55.00), and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, the annual Forecast book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. This book has an impressive history of insightful accuracy into world economic and financial market conditions that you will not want to miss! Last year’s printed edition sold out within three weeks of its release. For further information, go to www.mmacycles.com and click the banner (or click Products – Books). ORDER NOW AND MAKE SURE YOU RESERVE YOUR COPY BEFORE THEY SELL OUT!!! Excerpt from the introduction to Forecasts 2017:

The significance of 0° Capricorn is important to understand as we begin the analysis of the year 2017. That is, zero degrees of Capricorn symbolizes the true end of a matter in time, and the start of a new cycle, or era. In astrology, Saturn rules Capricorn. On December 20, 2017, the 29-year cyclical orbit of Saturn around the Sun will enter Capricorn, as seen from Earth. One day later, the winter solstice will commence as the Sun also enters Capricorn and joins Saturn at 0° Capricorn. The last time an “inner

Page 18: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

18

planet” (Sun, Mercury, or Venus) entered 0° Capricorn with an “outer planet” (Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, or Pluto) was January 24-25, 2008. That was the week when the financial panic exploded. It commenced the Great Recession. That was the week when central banks of the world began their extraordinary, unprecedented, and unorthodox measures regarding interest rates (the move towards ZIRP, or Zero Interest Rate Policy), which led to worldwide debt, stagnant economic growth, and the decimation of middle class savers, which continues to this day. It was the end of an era, and the start of a new era. That era is now approaching its end, which means we are on the brink of beginning another new era. For more information, visit www.mmacycles.com or call 1-800-662-3349 or 1-248-626-3034. This year’s printed version of Forecast 2017 will also be available in three additional languages: Dutch: at www.markettiming.nl German: at http://www.mma-europe.ch/ Japanese: at http://merriman.jp THE 2017 MMA INVESTMENT RETREAT IN SAN DIEGO, CA IS ON!!! This unique event will take place at the beautiful Kona Kai Resort on Shelter Island in San Diego, California, March 9-13, 2017, located right on the Pacific Ocean. Featured presenters will be Ted Lee Fisher, money manager, former member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and a legend in Commodity Futures trading, and Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management in Zurich, Switzerland, an asset management company based on wealth preservation principles that also owns Gold vaults in Zurich, the Swiss Alps, Singapore and Hong Kong. Egon was one of the individuals behind the “Save Our Swiss Gold” referendum in Switzerland in 2015. Along with Retreat Coordinator Raymond Merriman, some of the brightest minds from the MMTA (Merriman Market Timing Academy) will present their latest research on the best investment ideas of 2017-2018, including MMA analysts Kat Powell and Nitin Bhandari, ICR analyst Ulric Aspegren and ICR editor Mark Shtayerman. For registration and further information, go to at http://new.mmacycles.com/sandiego2017/index.shtml Do not miss this powerfully enlightening opportunity to connect with other investors and some of the best market timers in the world. There will be discussions between presenters and attendees every day. MP4’s OF THE SEPTEMBER 24 WEBINAR ON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE USA ELECTION ARE NOW AVAILABLE!!! This Autumnal Equinox webinar analyzed the end-of year outlook for Gold, Silver, the USA stock market, crude oil, and the U.S. Dollar, as of September 24, 2016. It also discussed, at length, the USA Election and the change in the world order that will result. A forecast was made as to who would win. The cost of the MP4 recording is $45.00. Get ready for Election 2016! This is a presentation you will not want to miss! To order your MP4 recording, call MMA at 1-248-626-3034, or email [email protected]. Or, go to the www.mmacycles.com website to make your reservation. EVENTS

January 13, 2017: “Trends for 2017!” Astrodata, Zurich, Switzerland. This will be part of a congress on Forecasts for 2017, including Claude Weiss, Monica Kissling. Alexandra Klingenhammer, Verena Bachmann, and Christoph-Schubert-Weller. My talk will be on “The Coming Reset of World Financial and Political Cycles via Saturn Approaching Capricorn.” For further information on this exciting event, please go to www.mma-europe.ch, or call AstroData at 41 (0) 43 343 33 66, or email at [email protected].

March 9-13, 2017: The Second MMA Investment Retreat is now confirmed at the beautiful Kona Kai Hotel right on the Pacific Ocean, in San Diego, California. Save the dates! It will be special. Cost is

Page 19: VOL 34, NO 10 NOVEMBER 8, 2016 - Constant Contactfiles.constantcontact.com/6c600f5f201/94c8025e-2120-4d10... · 2016-11-08 · 1 . VOL 34, NO 10 . NOVEMBER 8, 2016 . REVIEW AND PREVIEW

19

$4000. Go to http://new.mmacycles.com/sandiego2017/index.shtml for details, or on the MMA website at www.mmacycles.com under the banner at the top of the page. Just click it. June 3-4, 2017: It is on! Trinity College at Oxford University! Two-day workshop on MMA Financial Market Timing in Oxford, England. Cost is £995. With the British Pound so low, now would be a good time for non-UK residents to sign up and lock in the great currency conversion rate. For more information, go to http://oxfordastrologygroup.blogspot.co.uk/