visualising politics
TRANSCRIPT
INDIA’S 543 CONSTITUENCIES
The country has been divided into 543 Parliamentary Constituencies, each of which returns one MP to the Lok Sabha.
FOUR COLOUR THEOREM
“Every map can be coloured with just 4 colours, with no 2 adjacent areas having the same colour.”
Proven by Appel & Haken in 1979 – using a computer to solve the problem.
The Indian state map can also be coloured with just four colours.
DELIMITED BY POPULATION
The shape of each constituency aims to house the same population.
The last delimitation exercise was in 1976. The next one, based on the 2001 census is under process.
This has led to wide discrepancies in the size of constituencies, with the largest having over 33 lakh electors, and the smallest just 39,000.
Ideally, this map should have had a uniform shade of blue.
Electors 1000000 1500000
POPULATION DENSITY
If we treat the amount of “blueness” as population, then the right colouring scheme to use is population density.
This varies considerably too – from 1 person per sq km (Ladakh) to over 45,000 people per sq km (Calcutta North West and Mumbai South)
Pop Density 50 500
RESERVATION OF SEATS
In a number of seats in the Lok Sabha, the candidates can only be from either one of the scheduled castes or scheduled tribes. The number of these reserved seats is meant to be approximately in proportion to the number of people from scheduled castes or scheduled tribes in each state.
There are currently 79 seats reserved for the scheduled castes and 41 reserved for the scheduled tribes in the Lok Sabha.
GEN SC ST
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES
The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6.
In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased.
The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
Contestants 2 20
POLLING PERCENTAGE
The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6.
In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased.
The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
Poll % 40% 90%
0
500,
000
1,00
0,00
0
1,50
0,00
0
2,00
0,00
0
2,50
0,00
0
3,00
0,00
0
3,50
0,00
0
4,00
0,00
00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
… REDUCES WITH ELECTORS
The more electors there are in a constituency, the lower the polling percentage.
Poll%
Electors
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,0000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Population density
Poll%
… AND WITH POP. DENSITY
The denser the population in a constituency, the lower the polling percentage.
0
500,
000
1,00
0,00
0
1,50
0,00
0
2,00
0,00
0
2,50
0,00
0
3,00
0,00
0
3,50
0,00
0
4,00
0,00
00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Electors
# contestants
CONTESTANTS INCREASE
As the number of electors in a constituency increase, the number of contestants increase as well.
(Remember: the number of seats per constituency is the same – just one. So this is not a proportional effect.)
WINNING PARTIES
In the 2004 election to Lok Sabha there were 1,351 candidates from 6 National parties, 801 candidates from 36 State parties, 898 candidates from officially recognised parties and 2385 Independent candidates.
The Congress (INC) won 145 seats in the 2004 elections. BJP won 138, coming a close second.
The constituencies where each party won is shown here.
Party BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SP
Party BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SPWINNING PARTIES
In the 2004 election to Lok Sabha there were 1,351 candidates from 6 National parties, 801 candidates from 36 State parties, 898 candidates from officially recognised parties and 2385 Independent candidates.
The Congress (INC) won 145 seats in the 2004 elections. BJP won 138, coming a close second.
The constituencies where each party won is shown here.
NUMBER OF CANDIDATES
The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6.
In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased.
The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
Contestants 2 20
Contestants 2 20NUMBER OF CANDIDATES
The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6.
In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased.
The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
POLLING PERCENTAGE
The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6.
In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased.
The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
Poll % 40% 90%
POLLING PERCENTAGE
The number of candidates contesting each election steadily increased. In the general election of 1952 the average number of candidates in each constituency was 3.8; by 1991 it had risen to 16.3, and in 1996 stood at 25.6.
In August 1996, the size of the deposit and the number of people required to nominate were increased.
The 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the number of candidates came down to an average of 8.74 per constituency. In 1999 Lok Sabha elections, it was 8.6, and in 2004 it was 10.
Poll % 40% 90%
LOSING THE DEPOSIT
Every candidate has to make a deposit of Rs. 10,000/- for Lok Sabha elections. The deposit is returned if the candidate receives more than one-sixth of the total number of valid votes polled in the constituency.
% Lost Deposit 50% 90%
WINNER MARGIN
The percentage margin of victory is shown against each constituency.
The person with the single largest number of votes is returned to the parliament.
% Margin 0 5%
INC 145 12%BJP 138 11%CPM 43 19%SP 36 10%RJD 24 11%BSP 19 5%DMK 16 23%SHS 12 8%BJD 11 10%CPI 10 15%
WINNER MARGIN
The percentage margin of victory is shown against each constituency.
The person with the single largest number of votes is returned to the parliament.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
# contestants
Winner margin
INCREASES WITH CONTESTANTS
As the number of contestants increase, the percentage margin by which the winner wins increases – suggesting that candidates do not split up the winners votes much…
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 400%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Runner-up margin
# contestants
RUNNER UP MARGIN
… however, the runner-up’s margin significantly drops with the number of candidates.
WOMEN CANDIDATES
How many women candidates stand for elections? And where?
# Women 0 1 5
Women % 0 0.5 1WOMEN CANDIDATES
There was only one constituency in the 2004 general elections where there were more women candidates than men: at Udaipur.
Incidentally, they were the winner, runner up and second runner up.
The men lost their deposit.
NAME LENGTH
Where do candidates have long names?
Name length 10 30
The only other such times were Feb 23, 2008 (28 decisions) &Dec 26, 2008 (23 decisions).
Nearly two-thirds of decisions are taken on Thursday sessions, which is also visible on the calendar alongside.
UPA's best cabinet performance was last Friday, with a record 23 decisions taken in a single day, including some long pending key reform measures.
PARLIAMENT DECISIONS (CABINET + CCEA* + CCI**)
* CCEA: Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs** CCI: Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure
Mon 63 5%Tue 56 4%Wed 105 8%Thu 854 65%Fri 223 17%Sat 6 0%
PRE-2009 2009 AND AFTER
Decisions to increase the number of lanes on highways grew
significantly post-2009, especially as part of the CCI (Cabinet
Committee on Infrastructure) decisions
A significant rise in the number of decisions related to the
States is seen post 2009 – in contrast with the focus on
“Central” pre-2009
The number of international agreements has declined dramatically between pre-2009 and post-2009
Decisions related to intervention, assistance and relief were almost entirely concentrated in pre-2009
There’s enough data out there.
I’ll be sharing the Excel file that built this presentation.
Let’s get people to see politics.