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  • 1.VISUALISING POLITICSS ANANDDATA SCIENTISTGRAMENER.COMS.Anand@Gramener.com @sanand0

2. INDIAS 543 CONSTITUENCIESThe country has beendivided into 543ParliamentaryConstituencies, each ofwhich returns one MP to theLok Sabha. 3. FOUR COLOUR THEOREMEvery map can be colouredwith just 4 colours, with no 2adjacent areas having thesame colour.Proven by Appel & Haken in1979 using a computer tosolve the problem.The Indian state map canalso be coloured with justfour colours. 4. DELIMITED BY POPULATIONElectors 1000000 1500000The shape of eachconstituency aims to housethe same population.The last delimitation exercisewas in 1976. The nextone, based on the 2001census is under process.This has led to widediscrepancies in the size ofconstituencies, with thelargest having over 33 lakhelectors, and the smallestjust 39,000.Ideally, this map should havehad a uniform shade of blue. 5. POPULATION DENSITY Pop Density 50 500If we treat the amount ofblueness aspopulation, then the rightcolouring scheme to use ispopulation density.This varies considerably too from 1 person per sq km(Ladakh) to over 45,000people per sq km (CalcuttaNorth West and MumbaiSouth) 6. RESERVATION OF SEATS GEN SC STIn a number of seats in theLok Sabha, the candidatescan only be from either oneof the scheduled castes orscheduled tribes. Thenumber of these reservedseats is meant to beapproximately in proportionto the number of people fromscheduled castes orscheduled tribes in eachstate.There are currently 79 seatsreserved for the scheduledcastes and 41 reserved forthe scheduled tribes in theLok Sabha. 7. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10. 8. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10. 9. REDUCES WITH ELECTORSThe more electors there are Poll%in a constituency, the lower100%the polling percentage. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%0% 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 Electors 10. AND WITH POP. DENSITYThe denser the population inPoll%a constituency, the lower the100%polling percentage.90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0%1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000Population density 11. CONTESTANTS INCREASEAs the number of electors in# contestantsa constituency increase, the 40number of contestantsincrease as well.35(Remember: the number of 30seats per constituency is thesame just one. So this is25not a proportional effect.) 20 15 10500500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 Electors 12. WINNING PARTIESParty BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SPIn the 2004 election to LokSabha there were 1,351candidates from 6 Nationalparties, 801 candidates from36 State parties, 898candidates from officiallyrecognised parties and 2385Independent candidates.The Congress (INC) won145 seats in the 2004elections. BJP won138, coming a close second.The constituencies whereeach party won is shownhere. 13. WINNING PARTIESParty BJP BSP CPM INC RJD SPIn the 2004 election to LokSabha there were 1,351candidates from 6 Nationalparties, 801 candidates from36 State parties, 898candidates from officiallyrecognised parties and 2385Independent candidates.The Congress (INC) won145 seats in the 2004elections. BJP won138, coming a close second.The constituencies whereeach party won is shownhere. 14. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10. 15. NUMBER OF CANDIDATES Contestants 2 20The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10. 16. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10. 17. POLLING PERCENTAGE Poll % 40% 90%The number of candidatescontesting each electionsteadily increased. In thegeneral election of 1952 theaverage number ofcandidates in eachconstituency was 3.8; by1991 it had risen to16.3, and in 1996 stood at25.6.In August 1996, the size ofthe deposit and the numberof people required tonominate were increased.The 1998 Lok Sabhaelections, the number ofcandidates came down to anaverage of 8.74 perconstituency. In 1999 LokSabha elections, it was8.6, and in 2004 it was 10. 18. LOSING THE DEPOSIT% Lost Deposit 50% 90%Every candidate has to makea deposit of Rs. 10,000/- forLok Sabha elections. Thedeposit is returned if thecandidate receives morethan one-sixth of the totalnumber of valid votes polledin the constituency. 19. WINNER MARGIN % Margin 0 5%The percentage margin ofvictory is shown againsteach constituency.The person with the singlelargest number of votes isreturned to the parliament. 20. WINNER MARGINThe percentage margin ofvictory is shown againsteach constituency.INC 145 12%The person with the singlelargest number of votes isBJP 138 11%returned to the parliament. CPM 4319%SP 36 10%RJD24 11%BSP195%DMK 1623%SHS128%BJD11 10%CPI10 15% 21. INCREASES WITH CONTESTANTSAs the number ofWinner margincontestants increase, the70%percentage margin by whichthe winner wins increases 60%suggesting that candidatesdo not split up the winnersvotes much50% 40% 30% 20% 10%0% 05 10 15 20 25 30 3540 # contestants 22. RUNNER UP MARGIN however, the runner-ups Runner-up marginmargin significantly drops50%with the number ofcandidates. 45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 5% 0%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 3540 # contestants 23. WOMEN CANDIDATES# Women 0 1 5How many womencandidates stand forelections? And where? 24. WOMEN CANDIDATESWomen % 0 0.5 1There was only oneconstituency in the 2004general elections wherethere were more womencandidates than men: atUdaipur.Incidentally, they were thewinner, runner up andsecond runner up.The men lost their deposit. 25. NAME LENGTHName length 10 30Where do candidates havelong names? 26. PARLIAMENT DECISIONS (CABINET + CCEA* + CCI**)UPAs best cabinet performance was lastFriday, with a record 23 decisions taken in asingle day, including some long pending keyreform measures. The only other such times were Feb 23, 2008 (28 decisions) & Dec 26, 2008 (23 decisions).Mon 635%Tue56 4%Wed 105 8%Thu 85465%Fri 22317%Sat 6 0% Nearly two-thirds of decisions are taken on Thursday sessions, which is also visible on the calendar alongside.* CCEA: Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs** CCI: Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure 27. PRE-2009 2009 AND AFTERDecisions related tointervention, assistance and relief Decisions to increase the number ofwere almost entirely concentrated in lanes on highways grew significantlypre-2009 post-2009, especially as part of the CCI(Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure)decisions A significant rise in the number ofThe number of internationaldecisions related to the States isagreements has declinedseen post 2009 in contrast withdramatically between pre-2009 andthe focus on Central pre-2009post-2009 28. Theres enough data out there.Ill be sharing the Excel file that built thispresentation.Lets get people to see politics.