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Diaper Market Update: Carlos Richer Richer Investment SA de CV Richer Investment New Orleans, Jan 25 2012

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Paper presented at INDA\'s Vision 2012 in January 2012 at New Orleans

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Page 1: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Diaper Market Update:

Carlos Richer Richer Investment SA de CV

Richer Investment

Diaper Consulting

New Orleans, Jan 25 2012

Page 2: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Baby diaper market size and potential by country

Page 3: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth Rate

United States22.3

Billions/year21.3

Billions/year 96% -China 75.7 12.1 16% +++Brazil 15.7 7.7 49% ++Mexico 9.9 6.8 68% +Japan 5.8 5.7 98% -Russia 6.3 4.1 65% +UK 4.1 3.8 95% -Turkey 6.5 3.6 55% +France 3.9 3.7 97% -Indonesia 18.5 3.3 18% +Germany 3.4 3.3 96% -India 99.6 2.4 2% ++South Africa 4.4 2.4 55% +Argentina 3.3 2.4 72% +Italy 2.4 2.2 93% -Korea, South 2.40 2.16 90% =Spain 1.98 1.91 96% -Egypt 8.25 1.73 21% ++Canada 1.88 1.76 94% =Thailand 3.59 1.51 42% +Saudi Arabia 2.18 1.64 75% +Vietnam 6.35 1.59 25% ++Iran 5.86 1.46 25% ++Australia 1.46 1.35 93% =Venezuela 2.27 1.39 61% ++ (*)

Page 4: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth RateMalaysia 2.49 1.24 50% ++Poland 1.71 1.26 74% +Philippines 10.53 1.05 10% ++Nigeria 20.19 1.01 5% +++Taiwan 1.15 1.09 95% -Colombia 2.210 1.485 67% +Peru 2.333 0.910 39% +Morocco 2.519 0.952 38% ++Netherlands 0.879 0.844 96% -Algeria 2.372 0.688 29% +Pakistan 19.043 0.571 3% ++Chile 1.090 0.572 53% +Belgim 0.570 0.541 95% -Ukraine 1.998 0.500 25% +Kazakhstan 1.079 0.496 46% +Azerbaijan 0.733 0.498 68% ++Portugal 0.500 0.483 97% -Greece 0.507 0.457 90% =Sweden 0.500 0.464 93% -Hungary 0.488 0.440 90% =Romania 0.959 0.423 44% ++Libya 0.654 0.392 60% +Arab Emirates 0.400 0.388 97% +Guatemala 1.542 0.407 26% +Ecuador 1.270 0.381 30% +

Page 5: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Country Mkt Potential 2011 Current Mkt 2011 % Mkt Penetr Growth RateCzech Republic 0.420 0.393 93% +

Angola 2.325 0.349 15% ++

Syria 2.229 0.334 15% +

Ireland 0.348 0.347 100% =

Iraq 3.587 0.323 9% +

Dom.Republic 0.799 0.338 42% +

Swistzeralnd 0.370 0.352 95% -

Austria 0.360 0.346 96% =

Tunisia 0.674 0.304 45% =

Bangladesh 15.058 0.301 2% +

Hong Kong 0.310 0.294 95% -

Kuwait 0.290 0.270 93% +

Sri Lanka 1.439 0.259 18% +

Denmark 0.290 0.275 95% +

Oman 0.292 0.248 85% +

New Zeland 0.293 0.273 93% =

Finland 0.287 0.276 96% -

Slovakia 0.264 0.237 90% +

Belarus 0.450 0.247 55% ++

Singapore 0.230 0.219 95% =

Sudan 6.607 0.198 3% ++

Lebanon 0.314 0.204 65% +

Bulgaria 0.323 0.194 60% +

Cuba 0.542 0.163 30% +

Puerto Rico 0.207 0.165 80% +

Page 6: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

World Statistics for baby diapers*

(* updated Jan, 2012) 7 Billion people live in our planet today. 129.6 Million babies were born in 2011. 326 Million babies between 0 to 30 Months live

today. 342 million diapers will be changed today (Jan

25) World market penetration for disposable

diapers today is 21% One third of the world remains with < 2%

market penetration. Only 8.5% of the world with market penetration

>90% About 817 baby diaper machines are running

today.

Richer Investment

Diaper Consulting

Page 7: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Chassis Design World Trends

For Baby Diapers

Richer Investment

Diaper Consulting

Page 8: Vision2012 Carlos Richer
Page 9: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

2012 China USA Europe Australia

S. America

ME

KC

P&G

SCA

Other

Hengan, Chiaus, UnicharmDSG, Impex

Ontex, Asda,Sainsbury,Carrefour

KC- Italy

Page 10: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Diaper Chassis Trends

Richer

InvestmentDiaper Consulting

Core Trends………(Increased Density, ADL, lower 3D ratios)Fastening Trends…..(BOPP, Hook, Loopless)Elastic Trends….. Stretchable sides…Fully stretchable

Page 11: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Baby Pants Trends

Richer Investment

Diaper Consulting

Page 12: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Compare with only 14.5% of pant sales in USA in 2010

1992 1995 2005 2010 20110

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Baby Pants .vs. Baby Diapers in

Japan Baby Pants Baby Diapers

Year

% o

f T

ota

l S

ale

s

Page 13: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

KC Little Movers 4

(37 lb)

KC L. Movers

Cameo 37 Lb

KC Slip On 4, 37

lb

KC Pull Ups, 40 lb

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50$

U

nit

ary

Pri

ce

in U

SD

Page 14: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Richer Investment

Diaper Consulting

Huggies Little Movers Slip -On:

Page 15: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Confidential

Richer Investment

Diaper Consulting

Huggies Little Movers Slip -On:

Page 16: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Confidential

Richer Investment

Diaper Consulting

Huggies Little Movers Slip -On:

Elastic Side PanelsF: 100 mm X 100 mmB: 140 mm X 130 mm “Loopless System"

Lycra Slip-On

Page 17: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

KC’s Little Movers Slip On - Data

Instead of Spandex it uses an exclusive elastomeric material extruded in threads apparently manufactured on an Off-Line centralized site and then shipped all over the world to all its factories.

The total GSM of the side panels is 125 GSM while relaxed and 40 GSM while extended.

Elastic material is used at 24 GSM while Relaxed or 8 GSM stretched.

Maximum elongation is 500% versus 300% for Spandex.

Retractile force is about 40% of Spandex, you need more threads.

It may be less expensive than other commercial side panels in the market

Richer Investment

Diaper ConsultingConfidential

Page 18: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Adult diaper market potential by country

Page 19: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

China

India

United S

tate

s

Japan

Russia

Germ

any

Brazi

l

Indones

iaIta

ly

France

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025

Older>65 Y2012 Older>65 Y2025

Mill

ion

s o

f P

eo

ple

Page 20: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

United K

ingdom

Spain

Mex

ico

Ukrai

ne

Pakis

tan

Canad

a

Thaila

nd

Poland

Vietn

am

Turkey

Argen

tina

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Grow of people >65 between 2012 and 2025

Older>65 Y2012 Older>65 Y2025

Mill

ion

of P

eopl

e

Page 21: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

What is the biggest diaper market with an

unmet need today?

Incontinence Diapers for those with Limited Mobility

Page 22: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Adult Incontinence: a new perspective

Medical literature usually classify Incontinence in subgroups: Stress, Urge, Overflow, Mixed, and Bowel Incontinence. 31 million people in the US have Incontinence: 26 MM have urinary incontinent and 5 MM are bowel incontinent. It is estimated that 1/10 of the world population is incontinent.

Let us explore incontinence by looking at it from the perspective of the users and not their urinary condition: Active Adults; and Bedridden or Wheelchair patients.

How much risk do each have in relation to Incontinence Associated Dermatitis (IAD)?

Page 23: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Incontinence and Limited Mobility

When an Active adult is wet, he/she is capable of changing the diaper. This action results in minimal risk of irritation to the skin and minimal IAD; being active helps to have healthy skin, for sure somewhat compromised with age.

Babies are constantly cared by their parents, in addition they have the most elastic skin; because its young, baby’s skin is more resistant to damage than any other.

Bedridden Adults and people in Wheelchairs are several times more prone to skin infections and IAD than babies or Active Adults due to weaker skin, the lack of mobility (pressure sores), and less overall care or attention.

Page 24: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Who needs the better diaper?Who is using the best diaper?

Page 25: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

The Diaper Paradox Only those who do not have alternatives, such as

bedridden, or those who are in wheelchairs or hospitalized in intensive care, will be the only ones forced to use a diaper, they do not have a valid alternative.

Most of these bedridden patients end up in Institutions. Institutional US diapers are close to being the worst in

the world. The Paradox: People that require the best diapers

many times end up using the worst performance products just because of government regulations.

Many times the cost of skin control medications is by far more expensive than the cost of the diapers, many times the patience die because of skin infection that started with IAD.

Using under-beds as a treatment for frequent or regular incontinence is a solution that denigrates users, in my opinion, they should be banned of this use.

Page 26: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

What can be done? A new national health regulation is needed, it must be

based on the needs of each kind of institutional patient, active and non active.

Diapers designed for adults without mobility should be much drier than commercial diapers and also provide the required pH to help the skin with an acidic 4.5 pH and a low friction surface.

A good solution is a diaper with an acidic top-layer separated from the alkaline poly-acrylate liquid retention region. This could be either curly fiber or a specially made ADL. (BMC Geriatr, France Nov 2010).

Wetness in the diaper increases the toxicity of fecal incontinence as solid feces dissolve. Wetness is the most important cause of IAD, it is also the origin of main discomfort due to heath exchange from the body to the cold urine. Removing the urine from the diaper helps to eliminate the problem.

What is the industry doing ?

Page 27: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

UNICHARM’s Humany

Page 28: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Humany Unicharm

A robot costing more than $1,284 USD per unit. Each disposable diaper has a cost of $3 Designed for adult male users…. What about

females? There are 3 Females for every male with

incontinence. Uses an electronic sensor and a pump. Is this a

good solution? Is there a better alternative? FOR SURE!!

A new diaper that may cost less than a regular commercial diaper!

Page 29: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

(1)(2)

(magnets attached with a cord)

A suction cup made of rigid material

Why a 1,320 solution when you can do the same with $9.99

Page 30: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

(4)

(10)

(30)

(30)

(3b)

(2)

(3c)

(3a)

Page 31: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

(31)

(4)

(10)(1)

(2)

(32)

Page 32: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

(27)

(27)

(29)

(28)

Page 33: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Right idea….wrong approach

Vacuum Dry Diaper was the wrong name! It is not a theoretical idea it is a proven concept We showed working prototypes at the Idea show

in Miami. We demonstrated our concept to many

companies… It works! The industry reacted in a defensive way…

threatened… What we have invented is not a diaper it is a PDT: Personal Disposable Toilet The best solution yet for adult incontinence

without mobility

Page 34: Vision2012 Carlos Richer

Thank YouQuestions?

Carlos RicherRicher Investment SA de CVDiaper Consulting [email protected]

Diaper Factory AuditsStrategic PlanningFeasibility StudiesBenchmark ReportsTechnical Support, R&DMachine AppraisalsInsurance ClaimsExpert Witness

What do I do?

Join the Disposable Diaper Network Group: www.linkedin.com/e/gis/136568www.disposablediaper.net