Vision in

Power sector

Subhendu Mukherjee

Deputy Manager

Eastern Regional Load Despatch Centre

Power System Operation Corporation Limited

Present Power Scenario

Growth Prospect

Existing Challenges in Generation, Transmission

and Distribution Sector

Strategic Planning and Decision Making for

business growth in Power sector

Presentation Out Line

Present Power

Scenario

Total Installed Capacity : 3,44,718.61 MW (as on 30.09.18)

Total Renewable Installed Capacity : 72623.37 (as on 31.07.18)

Wind Potential ~ 302

GW (at 100 m hub- height)

Source : MNRE

Solar Potential ~ 750 GW(4-7 kWh per sq. m per day)

Wind and Solar Potential

All India

SynchronousGrid

400 kVBackbone

Network

Bulk transfer

throughHVDCsGreenEnergy

CorridorsTransmission asa

CommonCarrier

Robust Settlement

Mechanisms

INDIA POWER SECTOR

765kVBackbone

NetworkPAN India Market

Open Access

Trans National

Exchange of

Power

>Million

Transmission

Tower

INDIAN GRID…LARGEFOOTPRINT

33

ER

Kudankulam

Kayamkulam

Vindhyachal

Coal

Hydro

Lignite

Coastal

Nuclear

Vizag

Simhadri

Kaiga Krishnapatnam

SIKKIM

CHICKEN

NECK

SRI LANKACOLOMBO

NEPAL

PartabpurBHUTAN

BANGLA DESH

Pipavav

LEGEND

Generation

Kolkata

Bhubaneswar

Patna

Lucknow

Delhi

EnnoreSouth Madras

Chennai

Cuddalore

Bangalore

Guwahati

NER

Jammu

Ludhiana

NR

RAPP Jaipur

Gandhinagar

Indore Bhopal

WR

Tarapur

Mumbai

Korba

Talcher/Ib Valley

Raipur

Thiruvananthapuram

Kozhikode Mangalore

Hyderabad

SR

Coal

Load-Centre

Hydro

Wind

and

Solar

Indian PowerSystem

• Peak Demand ~ 165GW

• Energy Met~ 3.5 BUs/day

• Installed Capacity – 345 GW

• Annual Generation - 1168BU

• Transmission Lines - 781330 Ckt.Km

• 11 Nos. HVDC Bi-pole/BtB & 1 MTDC

• > 125 nos. 765 kV,> 1475 nos. 400 kV

• Per Capita Consumption - 1075kWh

Nepal Bhutan

Bangladesh

Myanmar

Indian PowerMarket

Licensed Traders - 43Nos.

Generation Utilities ~ 160Nos.

Distribution Utilities ~ 55Nos.

Market Participants > 3000Nos.

Two Power Exchanges

Yearly Open AccessTransactions

~ 55,000 Nos. , Energy ~ 100 BUs

Short Term ~ 10%

HARNESSING DIVERSITY…REGIONALGRIDS

Typical All India LoadCurve

Monsoon

Summer

Winter

Solar Pumped Hydro

Diurnal Variation Seasonal Variation

Morning & Evening Peak @ 500 – 600 MW/min for 1 hour

Growth Prospect

17

Wind Potential ~ 100

GW(at 80 m hub- height)

Solar Potential ~ 750

GW(4-7 kWh per sq. m per

day)

National Offshore

Wind Energy Policy

Solar Cities~ 60 Nos.Green Energy

Corridors

Renewables

CAGR

~ 18 %

Total RES Installed Capacity : 72623.37 (as on 31.07.18)

34 Solar Parks – 20

GW

Solar RPO ~ 8 % of

total generation by

2022 (Excluding

Hydro)

Solar PV Reverse Bidding

~ Rs. 2.44/kWhr

Wind Atlas

Renewables on the Rise…MW to GW

Wind Reverse Auction

~ Rs 2.43 / kWhr

Power Scenario & Transmission Corridor requirement of India in

2021-22

500 (2030)

500 (2026)

Existing Challenges

in Generation,

Transmission and

Distribution Sector

• Fuel Availability: Supply constraints for domestic coal.

Imported coal to bridge the deficit.

Imported (Indonesia) coal poses significant political and legal

issues.

Limited Railway capacity (South Africa) and the capacity at ports

controlled by a group of existing users making it difficult for a

new entrant to ensure reliability.

• Problems of Coal Blocks: Only 24 blocks have become operational out of the total 210 nos.

Land acquisition (RULES AND REGULATION ) issues, permit

delays and infrastructure problems.

Lack of experience of the developers in coalmine development.

Capacity shortage for coal transportation by Indian Railways, at

the ports in India for imported coal.

Existing Challenges in Generation

Existing Challenges in Generation

• Equipment Shortage: Equipment shortages in the core components of Boilers,

Turbines and Generators, including coal-handling, ash- handling

plants, etc.

To alleviate supply shortage of equipment

Joint Ventures between Indian and Foreign suppliers.

Procuring equipment directly from international markets.

• Land Acquisition and Environment Clearance:

Delays regarding the availability of land and obtaining the

requisite environment and other clearances for the projects.

The new land Bill facing political opposition

70% acquisition by project developer.

30% by the Government.

Existing Challenges in Generation

• Financial Problem:

UMPP costing above INR 16,000 Crore, through private

investments, delay in payments may put severe pressure on

developers/suppliers to meet the performance commitments.

• Manpower Shortage: Talented manpower sought more lucrative career options.

Encouragement –

Flexibility in working hours.

Investment in existing employees.

Focus on training and higher salaries where possible.

• Right of way

• Forest clearances:

Norms regarding tower heights

and design can be considered for faster clearances.

• Time and cost over run:

Large number of clearances, no integrated processing leading to

delays, reduction in revenue earning period, and cost uncertainty

• Skilled Manpower : Efficient inflow of skilled manpower

• Modern project management:

Non timely monitoring and corrective actions leading to delays and

consequential losses.

Existing Challenges in Transmission

Existing Challenges in Distribution

• Lack of credible information :

Improper consumer database to provide exact baseline data about the

assets, consumers and finances is the biggest obstacle for the

DISCOMs for proper billing and collection of revenues.

Hinders decisions in estimating losses, arresting theft or making

investments.

• Regulatory Framework:

Infrequent tariff fixation

Inadequate coverage of increasing costs (change in fuel cost, transmission cost

etc.) resulting in loss for DISCOM.

Gap between the cost of supply and average tariff has actually worsened over

recent years.

Intervention in the working of DISCOMs and the regulator by other agencies

Disciplined standards of performance and penalties for service deficiencies.

• Better technology for DISCOMs:

Lack of infrastructure, equipment, automation, consumer interfaces

and services lead to huge losses.

Lack of funding for better and energy efficient technology instead of

and Government subsidies and cross subsidies.

• Agriculture and rural consumption segregation:

Segregation of agriculture (19% of country connected load) and rural

feeders.

Non segregation impacting loss calculations.

Agricultural consumption will help for subsidy estimations for the

state DISCOMs.

Subsidies are given to wealthy affluent farmer also.

Existing Challenges in Distribution

High Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses:

T&D losses correspond to electricity produced but not paid for.

T&D losses are caused by a variety of problems, including energy sold at

low voltage, sparsely distributed loads over large areas, inadequate

investments in the distribution system, improper billing and theft.

Deficiencies in revenue collection of utilities:

Energy losses, deficiencies in proper billing, revenue collection and financial

management are often aggravated by external interference.

Existing Challenges in Distribution

Existing Challenges in DistributionAggregate Transmission and Commercial (AT&C)

losses

Strategic Planning

for future business

growth in Power

sector

Renewable and Demand Response

is the Mantra

TRENDS TRANSFORMING THE POWER INDUSTRY

2

Characteristic Old New

Load Growth High Slow

Paradigm Centralized Decentralized

Generation Despatchable Intermittent

Fuel Fossil Renewables

Renewables Expensive Grid Parity

Grid Powerflow One-way Bi-directional

Customers Consumers Prosumers

Tariffs Volumetric Transactive

Demand Inflexible Price-responsive

Data Manageable Explosive Growth

Electric Vehicles Rare Massive Penetration

HISTORY OF THE FUTURE INDIANGRID

• Cross Border Transactions – Expanding Grid beyond borders

• TransactiveEnergy

• Energy Efficiency & DemandManagement

• Confluence of Energy andTransportation (EVs)

• Freedom and choice toconsumers

• Techgiants - Google andAmazon foray into energy market

• Smart Grid - Real time agents for market interaction

• Energy StorageSystems

• Certification – Capacity Building

• Sustainable Institutions

33

World Total and Coal Installed capacity

Solar

57%

Wind

34%

Bioma

ss

6%

Small

hydro…

Renewable Installed

Capacity Target by 2022

57,260

71,768

95,319

1,20,772

1,47,541

1,74,998

12,289

25,475

43,035

61,693

80,899

1,00,000

32,280 33,578

39,078 45,305

52,258 60,000

-10,000

40,000

90,000

1,40,000

1,90,000

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

MW

YEAR

Projected Growth of RES Installed Generating Capacity

(MW)

WIND

SOLAR

TOTAL

Government Targets & Installed Capacity

Source: https://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/annual-report/2016-2017/EN/pdf/1.pdf

TYPICAL ALL INDIA DEMAND & NET LOAD CURVE (2021-22)

34

20

36

75

20

03

24

19

69

01

19

47

71

19

53

54

19

94

12

20

49

88

20

55

98

20

51

94

20

71

61

20

94

87

21

03

31

20

80

52

20

52

04

20

45

51

20

53

89

20

54

10

20

28

24

20

23

70

22

07

98

22

57

51

22

10

86

21

77

90

21

57

02

19

68

01

19

43

56

19

11

76

18

88

76

18

86

36

19

24

83

19

87

26

19

40

79 17

26

74

15

66

13

14

71

47

14

10

50

13

67

40

13

79

38

14

56

95

16

07

06

17

94

18

19

31

63

19

43

62

21

03

23

21

53

26

21

12

14

20

77

65

20

70

85

1,11,000

1,31,000

1,51,000

1,71,000

1,91,000

2,11,000

2,31,000

2,51,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

HOUR

ALL INDIA DEMAND VS. NET DEMAND OF PEAK DAY

ALL INDIA DEMAND NET DEMAND

DUCK CURVE

Primary

•All India - 4000 MW

•Outage of Ultra Mega Power Plant (UMPP) or any similar event

• Automatic, Decentralized, mandated as per Grid Code

Secondary

• All India - 3623 MW

•NR – 800 MW

•WR – 800 MW

•SR – 1000 MW

•ER – 660 MW

•NER – 363 MW

• Automatic, regional level with suitable compensation

Tertiary

• All India - 5218 MW

•NR – 1658 MW

•WR – 1353 MW

•SR – 1343 MW

•ER – 857 MW

•NER – 65 MW

• Manual, state level

• UnRequisitioned Surplus

Reserves Services

Higher number of units should on Bar….

for handling large and fast ramps

Need of Adequate

Primary Response

from generators

(Presently under

RGMO and

inadequate response

observed)

Need of Pan India

Operation of AGC to

provide Secondary

Control for

balancing (Pilot

Project in Northern

Region Completed)

Requirement of

adoption of RRAS at

State level to have

adequate Tertiary

Control.

ANCILLARY SERVICES FACILITATING LARGE SCALE

INTEGRATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN INDIA

Transmission Line Outage

17th June-2017, 765 kV Agra-Gwalior -1 line was taken under E/S/D from 12:15 to

15:30 Hrs. Import ATC of NR was reduced from 7400 to 6400MW

Demand Response participation in the energy markets -

France

Implicit Valuation Demand Response :

Integrated supply contract between Supplier and Consumers;

Settlement between Supplier and its Consumers-Monopoly;

Explicit Valuation Demand Response

Market based- Consumers access to Market through Aggregators;

Bilateral Agreement Model : Consumers – Aggregators;

Regulated Model : Independent Aggregators from suppliers, TSO, Regulatory

framework for financial issues, aggregation management, data management,

verification aspects of demand response block effectiveness ;

Demand Response Models

Demand Response programs (Eco-Signal and Eco-Reduction) of residential

consumers in Poland

Eco- Signal: 2 hour load curtailment in peak period, Voluntary participation, Communication:

SMS (Consumers , aggregators), Efficient Reaction: at least 50% load curtailment, Incentivized;

Eco-Reduction: maximum demand supervision module, any time in a day, Consumer Incentivized;

Aggregate baseline and aggregate load curtailment:

Block Ahead method (BA) - energy consumption during the curtailment block equals to energy

consumption within two hours prior to the curtailment block;

Day Ahead method (DA) – energy consumption during the curtailment block equals to energy

consumption within the hours of curtailment block on the day ahead (D-1);

Control Group method (CG) – energy consumption during the curtailment block is estimated

based on energy consumed by consumers allocated to the so called control group. The

consumers are paired based on the similarity of their load profiles.

Program Effectiveness: Eco-Reduction (40-47%) is more effective in respect of

Demand Side Response than Eco-Signal (20- 40%);

Demand Response Models

Distribution System Operator (DSO) –Transmission System Operator (TSO)

coordination used in effective management of potential of flexibility resources

(demand response and distribution generation) connected to the distribution

grid.

TSO centered Approach: - Belgium Market

TSOs and DSOs should cooperate to find the solution to allow TSOs to curtail Distributed

Generator or activate Demand System Response , wherever its connection point, in alert and

emergency system states;

It is necessary to define an efficient operational procedure when:

Both networks are affected by congestions (i.e. who acts first, who pays, etc.),

TSO balancing actions have an impact on DSOs and DSO congestion management actions have the

potential to affect the TSO network;

DSO centered Approach: -Denmark

DSO contracts flexibility to be used for distribution grid and can be re-sold to TSO or third parties.

Avoiding double booking of resources;

Demand Response Models

Subhendu Mukherjee

ERLDC, POSOCOsubhendu@posoco.in