Violence in the north caucasus

trends since 2004

since January 2004, csis staff have been compiling, almost daily, a database that tracks violent incidents occurring in the North Caucasus. The following figures draw on this database, through august 31, 2008.

Due to the nature of these incidents and the difficulty in finding trusted reporting, we are not in a position to verify all of them. We will, however, continue to update our database as information is made available to us.

CENTER FOR STRATEGIC &INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Human Rights & Security Initiative

defining “Violent incidents”:

Violent incidents include abductions of military personnel and civilians, bombings, assassinations of key civilian and military leaders, rebel attacks, police/military operations against suspected militants, destruction of property by militants, and the discovery of weapons.

csis staff have been following events in the north caucasus for years, but the region’s escalating violence has received little international media attention. this graph contextualizes the death toll in the north caucasus this summer through a comparison to lebanon.

Deaths from Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus and LebanonSummer 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5/12-5/18

5/19-5/25

5/26-6/01

6/2-6/8

6/9-6/15

6/16-6/22

6/23-6/29

6/30-7/6

7/7-7/13

7/14-7/20

7/21-7/27

7/28-8/03

8/04-8/10

8/11-8/17

8/18-8/24

8/25-8/31

Date

Dea

ths

northcaucasus

lebanon

Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus Summer 2008

0369

12151821242730

5/05-5/11

5/12-5/18

5/19-5/25

5/26-6/01

6/2-6/8

6/9-6/15

6/16-6/22

6/23-6/29

6/30-7/6

7/7-7/13

7/14-7/20

7/21-7/27

7/28-8/03

8/04-8/10

8/11-8/17

8/18-8/24

8/25-8/31

Week

Inci

dent

s

“North Caucasus” Republics: the database tracks incidents in nine republics in russia including chechnya, ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, north ossetia, dagestan, adygeya, stavropol, Krasnodar, and rostov.

Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus January 2004 – August 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

incidents

incident inc.Kavkaz

Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus by Republic Summer 2008

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

5/05-5

/11

5/19-5

/25

6/2-6/

8

6/16-6

/22

6/30-7

/6

7/14-7

/20

7/28-8

/03

8/11-8

/17

8/25-8

/31

Dates

Inci

dent

s

ingushetia

dagestan

chechnya

north ossetia

Kabardino-Balkaria

as this graph demonstrates, the north caucasus is an extremely varied region. While north ossetia and Kabardino-Balkaria remained relatively calm this summer, chechnya and ingushetia experienced spikes in violence.

Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus January 2004 – August 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

incidents

incident inc.Kavkaz

Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus January 2004 – August 2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

incidents

incident inc.Kavkaz

the majority of incidents in our database were reported by mainstream news media. however, we have found that these sources are less thorough in their coverage of regional violence, particularly in comparison to Kavkaz-uzel.ru (caucasian Knot). csis staff have consulted numerous independent experts, all of whom separately agreed on the importance and reliability of Kavkaz-uzel’s reporting. in turn, we have included in our data those incidents reported only in Kavkaz-uzel, but because we increased our usage of this source beginning in May 2008 we present our findings both including and excluding events reported by this source in the figure above.

aug-08

-uzel

Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus by RepublicJanuary 2004 – August 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Num

ber o

f Inc

iden

ts

chechnyaingushetiadagestannorth ossetiaKabardino-Balkaria

aug-08

Violent Incidents in IngushetiaJanuary 2004 – August 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

Violent incidentsBY rePuBlic

aug-0

8

Violent Incidents in ChechnyaJanuary 2004 – August 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

Violent incidentsBY rePuBlic

aug-0

8

Violent Incidents in DagestanJanuary 2004 – August 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

Violent incidentsBY rePuBlic

aug-0

8

Violent Incidents in North OssetiaJanuary 2004 – August 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

Violent incidentsBY rePuBlic

aug-0

8

Violent Incidents in Kabardino-BalkariaJanuary 2004 – August 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-0

4

apr-04

Jul-0

4

oct-04

Jan-0

5

apr-05

Jul-0

5

oct-05

Jan-0

6

apr-06

Jul-0

6

oct-06

Jan-0

7

apr-07

Jul-0

7

oct-07

Jan-0

8

apr-08

Jul-0

8

Date

Inci

dent

s

Violent incidentsBY rePuBlic

aug-0

8

Deaths from Violent Incidents in the North CaucasusJanuary 2004 – August 2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

time

Mar-04

Jun-0

4

sep-04

dec-04

Mar-05

Jun-0

5

sep-05

dec-05

Mar-06

Jun-0

6

sep-06

dec-06

Mar-07

Jun-0

7

sep-07

dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-0

8

Date

Num

ber k

illed

aug-0

8

Deaths from Violent Incidents in the North Caucasus and LebanonSummer 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

5/12-5/18

5/19-5/25

5/26-6/01

6/2-6/8

6/9-6/15

6/16-6/22

6/23-6/29

6/30-7/6

7/7-7/13

7/14-7/20

7/21-7/27

7/28-8/03

8/04-8/10

8/11-8/17

8/18-8/24

8/25-8/31

Date

Dea

ths

northcaucasus

lebanon

sources:

• Ria Novosti (http://en.rian.ru/) • Caucasian Knot (http://kavkaz-uzel.ru/) • ITAR-TASS (http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/) • Chechnya Weekly, The Jamestown Foundation (http://www.jamestown.org/chechnya_weekly/archives.php)• RFE/RL (http://www.rferl.org/)• The Moscow Times (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/index.htm) • The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com)• Reuters (http://www.reuters.com)• USA Today (http://www.usatoday.com)• International Institute for Strategic Studies (http://www.iiss.org)

For more information please contact: lucy Moore, lmoore@csis.org

for recommendations on ways in which the international community can address issues facing the north caucasus see 49 Steps To Improve Human Rights and Security in the North Caucasus, a report of the csis human rights and security initiative and the robert Bosch stiftung:http://www.csis.org/index.php?option=com_csis_pubs&task=view&id=4045