violence, governance, development
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Violence, Governance, Development. Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa CCD Ghana/SOAS. CAUSE or CONSEQUENCE?. What we’ll (try to) cover. Analytical Links Trends Violence and Development I Violence and Development II. Trends, levels, classification. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Violence, Governance, Development
Mo Ibrahim FoundationGovernance for Development in
AfricaCCD Ghana/SOAS
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CAUSE or CONSEQUENCE?
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What we’ll (try to) cover
• Analytical Links• Trends• Violence and Development I• Violence and Development II
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TRENDS, LEVELS, CLASSIFICATION
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Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM
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Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas
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Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006
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Post-war violence problem
• The El Salvador issue• South Africa, Ethiopia, Angola…• Loser’s peace (USA); victor’s peace (Spain);
pacified peace (Liberia); divided peace (Afghanistan)
• What are the determinants of variation in post-war violence?
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VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT I
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Grievance
• Growth (5 years before onset)• Repression (elections, press freedom, etc)• Inequality (Gini coefficient)• Ethnicity (ELF)
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Greed
• Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP)
• Rascals (% of 15-24 year old males in population)
• Education (number of years average schooling)
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How to overcome constraints on collective action
• Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals• Coercion• Norms & ideology• Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local
and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy
• Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)
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Friendly Fire?
• Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables
• Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique
• Conclusions not justified by findings• Might be published in an IR journal but not in
a 3rd rate economics journal.
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VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT II
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POST-CONFLICT AID
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World Bank Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lending, 1980-98
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
year
US
$ m
illio
n
Africa post-conflict East Asia & Pacific post-conflictSuth Asia post-conflict Europe & Central Asia post-conflictMiddle East & North Africa post-conflict Latin America & Caribbean post-conflict
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From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper
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From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper
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Aid volatility coefficient
From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper