victorvan rij sesti europeparliament7april2011
DESCRIPTION
prentation held for the STOA forum of the Europese parliament on the importnace of wide early warning and RDI intelligence for EuropeTRANSCRIPT
Scanning for emerging science and
technology issuesProject funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
The SESTI project is funded under the European FP7 and researches the application of weak signals and emerging issues for improving the anticipatory intelligence of the European
Commission and the EU Member States on future developments and issues
[Experiences with searching for emerging S&T issues , tools and approaches
Presentation for STOAVictor van Rij7-april-2011
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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Objectives of the SESTI project
• Researching the added value of early warning signal scanning to identify emerging issues
• Assessing the pro’s and con’s of several scanning methods
• Identifying ways to connect scanning to the policy community
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
3
Lobbyists
Advisory boards
Planning agencies
Voters
Decisions for the
Future
Media
Info and Issues
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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Why should we look for emerging issues?
• Much info and many issues are biased by their bringers, even scientific advice is biased by disciplinary thinking
• Media got a good nose for bad news and incidents, they scan the world for this (allthough there are some good exceptions)
• Most issues coming to the policy makers have a short term character
• While good governing needs the capacity to foresee and to anticipate
• Luckily politicians and policymakers have a good intuition for what the future may bring, but the knowledge they can use for this , is limited to their sources
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
5
SESTI project
• Are there ways to improof the information basis to identify the most important future issues that need policy attention today?
• Are there early warning (weak) signals that can be used to identify them?
• If so where and how to find them and how to use them to feed them into the policymakers agenda?
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
6
Definition and criteria emerging issue
Emerging issues are storylines (Future Narratives) with:
• High impact (on society, economy, ecology and the domain)
• Plausible storyline (including factual basis –reliable sources )
• Novelty (is the issue described really new for the policy makers)
• Emotional aspects and critical aspects (does the issue appeal or concern emotional and or ethical legal aspects)
• Interests at stake (commonalities and or conflicts)
• Changeability (Can the story or its impact be altered by human action)
• Policy relevance (does the issue relate to present day decision making and action and on different levels)
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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Sources and tools for scanning
Non participative / (digital) written sources
• Systematic manual scanning (internet –search engines)
• Literature study
• Text mining
Participative / stakeholders & experts
• Survey
• Wiki
• Blogs/linked In /and others like Facebook
• Workhops etc
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
Systematic Internet scanning
• Internet Search on internet using search engines provided by : google / bing
• Google selects all pages (texts & vids) with the “search string”
• sorts the pages that are most connected/central Needed• Qualified scanners (fast interpretation)• Frame of reference (coordinates/for which
domain does the scan take place/criteria)• Intelligent questions• Workhops
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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SESTI-manual scanning
Past Present Future
Emerging issue BB
= Primary signal (full or partial future issue description)
= Affirmative Secondary signal
= Not affirmative Secondary signal
= Expected affirmative signal not showing up
= Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of
Secondary signals to watch for)
The principles of Issue / Wild card Centered Scanning
Past Present Future
Emerging issue BB
= Primary signal (full or partial future issue or wild card description)
= Affirmative Secondary signal
= Not affirmative Secondary signal
= Expected affirmative signal not showing up
= Analysis of Primary signal (leading to indication of
Secondary signals to watch for)
The principles of Issue / Wild card Centered Scanning
WCC
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
Primary signal & secondary signals
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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Emerging issue A
Emerging issue B
Hype issue C
Past Present Future
B
C
A
WC
ISSUE CENTERED SCANNING
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
Wiki/Blog/linked In/Twitter
• An invitation is send to experts- stakeholders : Q what they see as new emerging issues /early warning signals?
Needed:• own website (SESTI-wiki – blog ) or account on
existing platform (Linked In , Face book, Twitter)• Wide variety, qualified willing contribuants• Open /structured set up• Analists to interprete data (text mining)
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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SESTI Wiki –for emerging issues
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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SESTI Blog /Linked In Blog/Twitter
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 April 2011
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Experience scanning methodsTool Reach
/SourceObservation time
Coherence degree of the signal
Quality check
Novelty Dialogue
Manual scanning
Very largewww
Anytime Largeand small
Available high NA
Literature study
Largewwl
Anytime Large Available medium NA
Survey Specific limited
One time Small Low, except experts
medium NA
Text mining
Large Runs with preparation
Small ?? Complex
? NA
Wiki Specific limited
Dependent on participants
Large in theorySmall in practice
Available Medium to high
Some
Blog Linked In etc
Specific limited
Dependent on participants
Medium to large Dialogue Medium to high
Open
Twitter Specific limited
All the timecontinuous
Small NA high Twitter
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
SESTI Presentation for STOA 7 april 2011
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• TNO: Main coordinator
• MinOCW: Scanning ([email protected])
• AIT: Processing of information
• UniMan: In depth analysis
• IPTS: Policy workshops
• MCST: Knowledge dissemination
Partners
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
Set up of the SESTI project
Further information: www.sesti.info
Focus of this presentation
Scanning for emerging science and technology issues
Project funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities
Emerging issue F
Emerging issue A
Emerging issue C
Hype issue D
Past Present Future
WC
EXPLORATORY SCANNING