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@DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co Stanford Univ - Feb 2016 Venture Capital 2.0 Make Lots of Little Bets. Expect Most to Fail.

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Page 1: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

@DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co

Stanford Univ - Feb 2016

Venture Capital 2.0 Make Lots of Little Bets.

Expect Most to Fail.

Page 2: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Dave McClureFounding Partner, 500 Startups

00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly

80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math

Page 3: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

How to Become a VC

• Option 1: Go to Harvard/Stanford/Wharton, Get MBA, Become VC Associate, Work at McKinsey / Google / Facebook, Re-Join VC as Junior Partner or Partner

• Option 2: Start a Startup, Grow Really Big, Sell for $1B+, Join VC as Partner

• Option 3: Wander around lost in the forest, Work Your Ass Off for 25 yrs, do some angel investing, Start your own Firm

Page 4: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

• What is 500? – $220M silicon valley VC fund + startup accelerator – 100 people / 30 partners / 25 languages / 20 countries – 1500+ Companies / 3000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors – Investment, Accelerator, Distro, Marketing, Events, Education – Community + Content + Conferences

• 1500+ Co’s / 50+ Countries – Credit Karma ($3.5B) – Twilio ($1B+) – GrabTaxi ($1B+) – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Behance (acq Adobe, $150M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Sunrise (acq MSFT, $100M) – Udemy – Ipsy – TalkDesk – Intercom

500 Startups Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator

Page 5: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Re-inventing a 50 year old sport:Venture Capital 2.0

Page 6: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Football

West Coast Offense

Baseball

MoneyBall

Basketball

3 point revolution

Venture Capital

500 Startups

“Lots of little bets”

500 Strategy: MoneyBall for StartupsRe-inventing a 50-year old sport

Page 7: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Startups… WTF?

Page 8: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Startups Mission

1. Find Smart People.

2. Give Them Money.

3. Wait for Good Shit to Happen.

Page 9: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Building Startup Ecosystems

Page 10: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Startups Mission

• Provide capital, community, education to smart people (founders, investors)

• Build functional startup ecosystems (founders, team, angels, accelerators, VC funds, capital, exits, liquidity, etc)

• #HFGSD: Have Fun, Get Shit Done.

Page 11: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Startups History: What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been

Page 12: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Year People Locations AUM $ Companies

2010 5 MV 10 75

2011 10 BRZ 30 250

2012 15 MX, IND 50 450

2013 30 CHN, SEA 75 650

2014 50 SF, MENA 125 900

2015 100 Korea, UK, Thailand, Vietnam, Germany, E.EU,

Israel, Japan, Turkey

200 1400

2016 150+ +10-20 More ??? 2000+

500 Startups History: What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been

Page 13: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Startups: a Platform made of People#500STRONG #500LOVE #HFGSD

Page 14: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

100 People, 20 Countries, 25 Languages

Page 15: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Startups: “Full-Stack” VC

Page 16: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Legal review Partner approvalAngel Pre-Seed Seed Post-Seed Series A/B Growth

Accelerator

Seed

“Distro"

Follow-On

Selection Criteria – Data-Driven Process Based on Pre-defined Metrics • Product or service solves a problem for a specific target customer • Capital-efficient business; operational at less than $1M in external financing • Scalable internet-based distribution (search, social, mobile) or proven ability to scale sales • Functional prototype required before investing (or previous product success) • Measurable traction: engaged users, some revenue, and attractive unit economics • Cross-functional team with design, engineering and marketing expertise

How 500 Invests: Accelerator, Seed, Distro

Page 17: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

http://bit.ly/99VCProblems

Page 18: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Portfolio Diversification “Spray, not Pray”

Page 19: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0
Page 20: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Q: Chances of spotting unicorn? /

a) 1% b) 2% c) 5% d) 10% e) ZERO

Page 21: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Chances of spotting unicorn = ~1%/

Page 22: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

If portfolio size = 15 companies /

Page 23: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

/ If portfolio size = 30 companies

Page 24: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

/ If portfolio size = 100 companies

Page 25: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets*

1) make lots of little bets on pre-traction, early-stage startups

3) wait 5-10 years for returns: -10-20% small exits @1-5X ($5-25M+) -5-10% larger exits @5-20X ($25-250M+) -1-2% unicorns @20-50X+ ($250M-1B+)

*See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”

2) over the next five years, double-down on top 20-30%

~500 co’s @ $100K 1st checks

100-200 co’s @ $200-500K 2nd/3rd checks

(target 25-50 exits @ $100M+)

(assume high failure rate ~50-80%)

Page 26: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Startup Risk Reduction

ConceptEarly

Customer Usage

Scalable Customer

Acquisition

[about to be] Profitable

Unit Economics

Scalable Profitable Business

Functional Prototype

PRODUCT

MARKET

REVENUE

Exit?

When 500 Likes to Invest

Page 27: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investor Ecosystem

Angels & Incubators ($0-10M)

“Micro-VC” Funds ($10-100M)

“Big” VC Funds ($100-500M)

“Mega” VC Funds (>$500M)

Incubation 0-$100K

Seed $100K-$2M

Series A/B $2-10M

Series B/C $10-50M

Bootstrap, KickStarter, AngelList, Crowdfunding

stage where 500 writes first checks

stage where 500 doubles-down

(maybe)

Page 28: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

[ This Talk ]

• Changes in Building Technology Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Investment Workshop: “VC101 in 60m” • Q&A

Page 29: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Changes in Tech Startups• LESS Capital required to build product, get to market

– Dramatically reduced cost for servers, software, bandwidth – Funding Platforms: KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Access to online platforms for 100M-1B+ consumers, smallbiz, etc

• MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – Search (Google, Baidu) – Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – E-Commerce (Amazon, PayPal, Alibaba) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram) – Comm/Msgs (WeChat, WhatsApp, SnapChat, Email, Voice, SMS, etc)

• LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments

Page 30: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Platforms 2.0 Search, Social, Mobile,

Video, Messaging

Page 31: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Before & After 2 Dot-Com CrashesLEAN Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter

Before 2000 ”Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup” • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl

After 2008 ”Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup” • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility

Page 32: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Startup Education• Business Plans / Revenue Projections • Software + Design/UX • Lean Startups + Continuous Deploy (Iterate) • Metrics Framework + Continuous Testing • Functional Prototypes / Customer Development • Scalable [Internet] Marketing & Sales • Cash-Flow Positive Unit Economics • Pitching + Fundraising (Angel List) • Monetization + Payments • Customer Service + Support

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Page 33: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

[ This Talk ]

• Changes in Building Technology Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Investment Workshop: “VC101 in 60m” • Q&A

Page 34: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Industry Changes• Financial Market Crises (2000, 2008) • Startup Efficiency, Lean Startup Movement, Reduced Capital Costs • Growing Market, Global Distribution Platforms, “Growth Hacking” • Improved Monetization, Payments Infrastructure • Developing Startup Ecosystems, Global M&A

• Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: First Round Capital) • Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator, 500 Startups) • Funding Platforms (ex: Angel List, Kickstarter) • Global Market of Angel Investors, Accelerators, Seed Funds

more info: http://PreMoney.co

Page 35: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

SV Investor Ecosystem

Angels & Incubators ($0-10M)

“Micro-VC” Funds ($10-100M)

“Big” VC Funds ($100-500M)

“Mega” VC Funds (>$500M)

First Round

A16Z

Y-Combinator

SoftTech (Clavier)

Felicis (Senkut)

SV Angel

Sequoia

Union Square

Incubation

Seed/A

Series A/B

Series B/C

Bootstrap, KickStarter, AngelList, Crowdfunding

Page 36: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Angel List: Platform for Investors + Startups

• Startups + Metrics • Founders + Bios • Investors + Syndicates • Accelerators + Online Applications • Jobs + Talent

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Page 37: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investor Education• Startups are NOT Real Estate • Most Startups Fail / Power Law Returns • Portfolio Approach (20-100+ investments) • Legal Structure, Financial Structure • Syndication + Co-Investment • Access to Downstream Capital • Exits & Liquidity

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Page 38: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Critical Ecosystem Factors

• Optimism & Belief (“Silicon Valley”) • Mentorship + Education (Knowledge) • Universities + Companies (People) • Capital, Legal, Finance (Infrastructure) • Engineering + Design / UX (Product) • Platforms + Distribution (Customers) • Online Payments (Monetization) • IPO / M&A Market (Exits)

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Page 39: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

[ This Talk ]

• Changes in Building Technology Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Investment Workshop: “VC101 in 60m” • Q&A

Page 40: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Building Startup Ecosystems

Page 41: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets*

1) make lots of little bets on pre-traction, early-stage startups

3) wait 5-10 years for returns: -10-20% small exits @1-5X ($5-25M+) -5-10% larger exits @5-20X ($25-250M+) -1-2% unicorns @20-50X+ ($250M-1B+)

*See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”

2) over the next five years, double-down on top 20-30%

~500 co’s @ $100K 1st checks

100-200 co’s @ $200-500K 2nd/3rd checks

(target 25-50 exits @ $100M+)

(assume high failure rate ~50-80%)

Page 42: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

The Lean Investor

Make lots of little bets: • Start with many small “experiments” • Filter out failures + small wins • Double-down on stuff that looks like it’s working

• Incubation: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)

Page 43: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investment Stage #1: Product Validation + Customer Usage

• Structure – 1-3 founders – $0-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors

• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)

• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment

Page 44: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investment Stage #2: Market Validation + Revenue Testing

• Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds

• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments

• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires

Page 45: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investment Stage #3: Revenue Validation + Growth

• Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors

• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth

• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options

Page 46: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

[ This Talk ]

• Changes in Building Technology Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Investment Workshop: “VC101 in 60m” • Q&A

Page 47: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investing Workshop

• General Strategy • Investment Thesis & Model • Helping Companies Succeed • Generating Dealflow • Selecting / Evaluating Opportunities • Deal Terms / Deal Memo • Follow-On Strategy • Investing Resources

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Page 48: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Startup Investment Stages• Concept • Product • Functional Prototype • Early Users/Customers • Other Investors • Profitable Unit Economics? • Scalable Cust Acquisition? • Profitable Business • Scalable Organization • Exit / Liquidity?

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Page 49: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Startup Risk Reduction

ConceptEarly

Customer Usage

Scalable Customer

Acquisition

[about to be] Profitable

Unit Economics

Scalable Profitable Business

Functional Prototype

PRODUCT

MARKET

REVENUE

Exit?

When 500 Likes to Invest

Page 50: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investment Thesis + Model

• Define Investment Thesis (geography, technology, customer segment, investment stage, etc)

• What’s Your Unique Insight / Advantage? Show some proof or evidence of why you’re not crazy (or at least not always wrong, occasionally…)

• Build Model of Potential Investments vs Returns

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Page 51: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Helping Companies Succeed

• Advice (Product, Design, Marketing, etc) • Recruiting • Advisor / Mentor Intros • Growth Consulting • Next Round / Investor Intros • Exits? M&A Consulting?

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Page 52: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investment Allocation Strategy

• How long will companies take to exit / reach liquidity? (3-7 yrs)

• How long is your investment cycle? (ex: 3-5 yrs)

• When will capital be returned? (1X in 5-8 yrs, 2-5X in 8-12 yrs)

• Simple allocation for $10M investment budget over first 5 years • 50% 1st checks + 50% 2nd/3rd checks • ~100 1st checks @ $50K each ($5M), ~20 checks / yr

• ~10-20 2nd checks @ $250-500K each ($5M), ~3 checks / yr

1 2 3 54 7 8 109 11 12 13 15146

1 5432

50

15

.. .. ..

Page 53: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Generating Dealflow

• Writing / Speaking • Attend (or Run!) User Groups / Conferences • Networking / Referrals / LinkedIn / Email • Angel List / other funding platforms • 500 / YC / TechStars / StartX / other acc • Sand Hill Angels / angel investing clubs • Domain Focus: What’s Your Thesis? • Community: Founders / Mentors

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Page 54: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Writing / Speaking

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Page 55: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Selecting/Evaluating

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Page 56: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Deal Terms, Deal Memos

• Summarize Opportunity:

• Concept, Product, Problem, Market, Traction, Team, Terms, IP, Users, Revenue, Other Investors, Conviction

• [Summary of Previous Investments made + % ownership]

• Pre-Money Valuation or Cap + Discount (Ask for Min 2x?)

• Ask for Info Rights? (YES) Ask for Pro-Rata / Follow-On Rights?

• Major Investor Status? (Usually Info Rights + Pro-Rata Rights)

• Do You Have Leverage (or Not)?

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Page 57: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

The Flat, The Elbow, The Wall• Invest @ “The Flat”

when prices are low

• Double-down if/when you detect “The Elbow” (if valuation isn’t crazy)

• Don’t invest @ “The Wall” unless capital is infinite — if valuation starts running away, you usually can’t buy any meaningful ownership relative to existing. Time

Revenue, Growth Startup W

Startup L

Startup K

“The Flat”

“The Elbow”

“The Wall”

1

2

3

3

Page 58: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Investing Resources

• The Venture Capital Cycle (Gompers, Lerner) • Venture Deals (Feld, Mendelson) • Angel Investing (Rose) • Venture Hacks (Naval, Nivi) • blogs: Fred Wilson, Brad Feld, Mark Suster • Quora: Jason Lemkin, David Rose, etc

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Page 59: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Questions? Comments?

• More Info? – http://500.co (our company) – http://500hats.com (my blog) – https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) – Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

Page 60: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Appendix

Page 61: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

500 Startupsto 500 VCs

Page 62: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

We live in a World of ABUNDANCE

• There are LOTS of talented people in the world

• There are LOTS of entrepreneurs everywhere

• There is a LOT of capital sitting around, BUT….

• Not much is available for un-tested entrepreneurs :(

• 500 Startups plans to change that.

Page 63: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Who, What is an Entrepreneur?

Page 64: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

Who/What is an Entrepreneur?

• someone who WANTS to start a business

• someone who can RUN a business

• someone who can run a SUSTAINABLE business

• someone who can run a PROFITABLE business that creates VALUE & employs LARGE # people

• someone who can run a $10M/yr business that employs 100+people

Page 65: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

How Big Is The Market?Q: How Many Entrepreneurs?

• How Many People = 7,000,000,000 on earth

• 1% of Humanity is Entrepreneurial = 70,000,000 founders

• Live 70 years, try at least once = 1,000,000 founders / year

• How Much Do They Need? Zero? $100K? $1M? $10M?

• How Big is the Market = 1M founders x $10M = $10 TRILLION / year

• Come on, REALLY? (ok Divide by 100)

• 100,000 founders / year * $1M each = $100 BILLION / year

Page 66: Venture Capital Unlocked (Stanford) / Venture Capital 2.0

How Many VCs?

• How Many Founders? 1,000,000 founders / year

• (ok, divide by 100, let’s say 10,000 founders / year)

• 1 VC can make 20 investments / year

• 10,000 founders / 20 deals per VC = 500 VCs