Venezuelan Elections The Chávez Era

Elections that Created the Fifth Republic

• National elections of 1998

• Constituent Assembly and Constitutional Referendum of 1999– Continued domination by the Patriotic Pole – Manipulated electoral law shuts out opposition from writing of the

new constitution

• December referendum on the new constitution– Overwhelming approval – Abstention high

Charismatic Campaigner

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Presidential

• Conditions– Plurality – six year term – Delay of balloting

• The Contendors – MVR and MAS back Chavez– Francisco Arias Cardenas spearheads the opposition– Claudio Fermin: Punto Fijo revival?

• Outcome– Chavez wins 60% of the total popular vote

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: National Assembly

ConditionsMixed list-plurality system Five-year term

The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic PoleAD fields candidates in all statesNew political parties in the regions (states)

OutcomePatriotic Pole wins majority – but unable to modify

the constitutionAD has largest opposition delegationMiddle class parties elect numerous Assemblymen

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Regions

ConditionsGovernors elected – first past the post (five year

terms)Mixed list-plurality system for state legislatures

The Contendors MVR and MAS form Patriotic PoleAD fields candidates in all statesNew political parties in the regions (states)

OutcomePatriotic Pole wins 16 of the 21 governors Zulia remains with the opposition Central states (Aragua & Carabobo) back opposition AD elects governors in the Llanos

Elections that Staffed the Fifth Republic: Municipalities

ConditionsMayors elected in mega-elections of July 30, 2000 Councilmen elected in December local elections Neighborhood councils elected in December local

electionsThe Contendors

MVR and MAS form Patriotic PoleAD fields candidates in most municipalities New political parties in the regions run candidates for

mayor/councilmen Outcome

Patriotic Pole wins a majority of majors, but just barelyAD elects almost 30% of the majors sJunta parochiales split among opposition and

government forces

*increases progressively after the 1998 national elections

*reaches 80% in the municipal elections of December 2000

*Exhaustion with electoral politics

Abstention

Electoral Panorama: Marginalization of

Chávez Opponents Revocatory referendum (August, 15,

2004) 60% for retention Regional and Local elections (October 31,

2004) 80% of seats for the Revolution Municipal Council elections (August 7,

2005) 80 % of seats for the Revolution National Assembly Elections (November,

2006) opposition abstains; Chavez forces win all seats.

National Assembly of Venezuela Election Results

(December 2005) Fifth Republic Movement (Movimiento V [Quinta] República)

2,041,293 votes60.0 % - 116 seats (out of 167)

For Social Democracy (Por la Democracia Social)277,482 votes8.2% - 18 seats

Fatherland for All (Patria para Todos)197,459 votes6.8 % (10 seats)

Communist Party of Venezuela (Partido Comunista de Venezuela)94,606 votes 2.7% (7 seats)

LAGO61,789 votes 1.8% (2 seats)

Reelection emboldens Chavez to call for a Referendum to Change the

Constitution

November 2, 2007 – National Assembly approves a constitutional overhaul.

Leads to riots (light) in Caracas

Proposed major changes • Allowing the indefinite re-election of the president - not applicable to any other political post • Increasing the presidential term from six to seven years • Introducing changes to the country's administrative structure • Ending the autonomy of the central bank • lacing the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves • Reducing the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours

33 Articles of 1998 Constitution were to be amended

Voters Narrowly Reject the Reforms

First electoral defeat for Chavez followed by

government efforts to weaken the opposition

.RCTV (television

station) licensed was not renewed

272 people seeking public office banned from running for office in upcoming state & municipal elections

Elections scheduled for November 23, 2008

Creating PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela

Process initiated after Chavez won the presidential election of December 2006

Purpose – merge all parties that support the Bolivarian Revolution

On 24 March 2007, the first 2,000 party members took their oaths on a party ceremony.

Founding congress held in April 2008

Political Parties Joining PSUV

People's Electoral Movement (MEP)

Everybody Wins Independent Movement (MIGATO)

Venezuelan Popular Unity (UPV)[7]

Revolutionary Movement Tupamaro (MRT)

Socialist League (LS)

Movement for Direct Democracy (MDD)

Union PartyMilitant Civic Movem

ent (MCM)

Action Force of Base Coordination (FACOBA)

Independents for the National Community (IPCN)

Revolutionary Parties Not joining PSUV

For Social Democracy (PODEMOS)Fatherland for All (PPT)Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV)Revolutionary Middle Class (CMR)Emergent People (GE)National Socialist Group of Liberation Pro

Venezuela (PROVEN)Communitary Patriotic Unity (UPC)

•Recent Poll from Últimas Noticias •Communal +Popular Power

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAaK4jTcCf4

Public Attitudes Toward Creation

of PSUV

Elections 23 November,2008

22 governorships

All state legislators

328 Mayors

•About 2.5 million members of the party choose candidates

• 22 governors • 328 mayors

• If no single pre-candidate obtains at least 50% plus 1 of the votes, or 15% more votes than the next highest pre-candidate, the national executive body of the PSUV and President Chavez, can select the candidate out of the three who achieved the highest vote.

PSUV: Candidate Selection for Elections of November 23,

2008

Caracas: Municipalities

PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Caracas

ARISTOBULO IZTURIZ ALMEIDA94.64%129.873 votos

ANGEL LUIS AGOSTINI RINCONES00.88%1.208 votos

SORA ANGELLA MARTINEZ00.53%729 votos

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Miranda

DIOSDADO CABELLO RONDON87,39%22.155 votos

TULIO AMADO JIMENEZ RODRIGUEZ5,11%1.297 votos

ARMANDO GARCIA1,11%283 votos

REBECA PADILLA0,93%237 votos

 

PSUV: Primary vote for Metropolitan Mayor: Maracaibo HENRY JOSE RAMIREZ SANCHEZ

64,41%62.560 votos

CALIXTO ANTONIO ORTEGA RIOS12,5%12.142 votos

JOE ANTONIO BERMUDEZ RINCON4,18%4.068 votos

TáchiraState capital :

San Cristobal Area:  •% 11,100

km²1.2   (Ranked 16th)

Population: •% 1,177,300 hab. (2007 est.)4.5   (Ranked 9th)

Governor: Roland Blanco La Cruz(PSUV); 2004 – 2008)

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Tachira

LEONARDO ALI SALCEDO RAMIREZ39,4%50.266 votos

JOSE GREGORIO VIELMA MORA33,3%42.490 votos

FRANCISCO JAVIER ARIAS CARDENAS8,65%11.037 votos

 

Barinas: Fiefdom of the Chavez family

PSUV: Primary vote for Governor of Barinas

Gobernador o Gobernadora de Estado ADAN COROMOTO CHAVEZ FRIAS

91,15%59.568 votos

MARCOS RAMON FERNANDEZ3,4%2.226 votos

RAMON ADOLFO FALCON2,9%1.899 votos

Platform for PSUV

November 23, 2008 ElectionsRESULTS

Venezuelan Comptroller General banned almost 300 candidates

Opposition won five (out of 22) state governorshipsZulia, Tachira, Nueva Esparta, Carabobo & Miranda

Dissident Chavistas peform poorly ( Barinas, Lara & Guarico)

Opposition victories in race for mayor of metropolitan Caracas & Maracaibo

Government unhappy with losses in key states & municipios

Second Constitutional Referendum:

February 15, 2009

Economic deterioration leads President to schedule the referendum as quickly as possible

Rainy day funds used to prevent economic downturn

Initial proposal to permit indefinite reelection of president only in trouble

Changed to allow for indefinite reelection of governors & mayors

Electoral Appeal & VotingCampaign slogans &

outcome Bugles sounding from government vehicles roused people - queues swiftly formed outside polling

"Chávez loves us and love is repaid with love

Chávez is incapable of doing us harm

54% of voters support indefinite reelection of the president and other office holders

Love & War with Colombia:

Is there an electoral dimension?

•What is going on? Protest against U.S. Bases

Chavez orders troops to prepare for War

Popularity of Chavez government fallingBarrio Adentro

deterioratedElectricity and water

shortages Divert the attention of

voters in run up to 2010 elections?