velocity is not the goal code palo-usa
Post on 17-Sep-2014
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DESCRIPTION
Code PaLOUsa rendition of Velocity is NOT the Goal. Velocity is one of the most common metrics used—and one of the most commonly misused—on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction—the rate at which a team is delivering toward a product release. As with a vehicle en route to a particular destination, increasing the speed may appear to ensure a timely arrival. However, that assumption is dangerous because it ignores the risks with higher speeds. And while it’s easy to increase a vehicle’s speed, where exactly is the accelerator on a software team? Michael “Doc" Norton walks us through the Hawthorne Effect and Goodhart’s Law to explain why setting goals for velocity can actually hurt a project's chances. Take a look at what can negatively impact velocity, ways to stabilize fluctuating velocity, and methods to improve velocity without the risks. Leave with a toolkit of additional metrics that, coupled with velocity, give a better view of the project's overall health.TRANSCRIPT
Agile MetricsVelocity is NOT the Goal
GRANDFATHERHE’S SOOO CUTE!!
What is “Agile Velocity”?
WORK UNITS DELIVERED OVER TIMEUMMM.... WOULDN’T THAT BE “AGILE SPEED”?
A LAGGING INDICATORTELLS US ABOUT SOMETHING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED
PLANNING BY VELOCITYUSING THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE
0
10
20
30
40
03-Dec 17-Dec 31-Dec 14-Jan
Ideal Burn Down
0
125
250
375
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ideal
Velocity Graph
0
6
12
18
24
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
25
2827
2829
28
24
28
30
27
Velocity
Yesterday’s Weather
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6
12
18
24
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
30 25 28 27 28 29 28 24 28 30
25
2827
2829
28
24
28
30
27
Weather Actual
Weather Burn Down
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125
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375
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ideal Actual Estimate
THAT DOESN’T APPLY HERE, TONY.I’M SURE WE CAN MAKE THIS BETTER
Rolling Average
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
30 25 27 27 28 28 28 26 27 2730 25 28 27 28 29 28 24 28 30
25
2827
2829
28
24
28
30
27
Weather Rolling Actual
Rolling Burn Down
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125
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500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ideal Actual Estimate
All The Burn Downs
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125
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375
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Ideal Actual Rolling Weather
DO YOU FEEL CONFIDENT?ARE THESE NUMBERS GOOD?
STANDARD DEVIATIONSHOWING OUR CONFIDENCE
Standard Deviation:The Basics
IT’S NOT THAT HARDLET’S BREAK IT DOWN
Standard Deviation:Break-Down
Standard Deviation:Break-Down
CALCULATE THE MEAN OF THE POPULATION
Standard Deviation:Break-Down
SUBTRACT THE MEAN FROM EACH ITEM AND SQUARE THE RESULT
Standard Deviation:Break-Down
AVERAGE THOSE RESULTS AND GET THE SQUARE ROOT
Calculate the Mean
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6
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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2827
2829
28
24
28
30
27
Velocity
(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
SORRY, TONY.JUST LET ME DO THIS ONE THING.
“I feel like you’re not really hearing me.”
- Tony Robbins
Square the differences
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
25
2827
2829
28
24
28
30
27
Velocity
(25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56
(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.56(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16
(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
Square Root Result Mean
0
6
12
18
24
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
25
2827
2829
28
24
28
30
27
Velocity
(25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56
(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.56(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16
(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
(2.84)**1/2 = 1.685
Standard Deviation Is:
0
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18
24
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
25
2827
2829
28
24
28
30
27
Velocity
1.685
Burn Downs w/1SD
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125
250
375
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ideal Actual Estimate High Low
Burn Downs w/2SD
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125
250
375
500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Ideal Actual Estimate High Low
Set A:10, 11, 9, 10
Set B:10, 14, 9, 7
Set A:10, 11, 9, 10
Set B:10, 14, 9, 7
Mean: 10 Mean: 10
Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10
Set A:10, 11, 9, 10
Set B:10, 14, 9, 7
Mean: 10 Mean: 10
Deviation: 0.7 Deviation: 2.5Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10
Set A:10, 11, 9, 10
Set B:10, 14, 9, 7
Mean: 10 Mean: 10
Deviation: 0.7 Deviation: 2.5Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10
Set A:10, 11, 9, 10
Set B:10, 14, 9, 7
Mean: 10 Mean: 10
Vel: 9.3-10.7 Vel: 7.5-12.5
WHOOPS.NOW TONY’S ANGRY.
“You know what? Just... Do what you want. I don’t care.”
- Tony Robbins
YOU CAN’T MANAGE WHAT YOU CAN’T MEASURESAYS WHO?
SAYS WHO?
SAYS WHO?
Dr. W. Edwards DemingFather of the Quality Evolution
You can’t manage what you
can’t measure.
Dr. W. Edwards DemingFather of the Quality Evolution
Don’t be ridiculous!
Dr. W. Edwards DemingFather of the Quality Evolution
Running a company on
visible figures alone [is deadly]
Seven Deadly Diseasesof
Western Management1) Lack of constancy of purpose2) Emphasis on short-term profit3) Evaluation of performance, merit rating or annual reviews4) Mobility of top management5) Running a company on visible figures alone6) Excessive medical costs7) Excessive legal damage awards
THE HAWTHORN EFFECTTHAT WHICH IS MEASURED, WILL IMPROVE
What matters is not
setting quantitative
goals but fixing the method by which those
goals are attained
REPAIR THE ROOT CAUSESRATHER THAN THE SYMPTOMS
INSTABLE VELOCITYWHAT DOES IT TELL US?
POOR STORY COMPOSITIONYOU WANT CONSISTENT (SMALL) STORIES
TOO MUCH WIPGET THE HIGHEST VALUE DONE FIRST
DEPENDENCY ON OTHER TEAMGET EVERYONE YOU NEED ON THE TEAM
STABLE VELOCITYIT WON’T EVER BE PERFECT
INCREASE VELOCITYDO WE ALWAYS WANT TO GO FASTER?
GOODHART’S LAWMAKING A TARGET FOR A METRIC DESTROYS THE METRIC (AND THE TARGET)
What matters is not
setting quantitative
goals but fixing the method by which those
goals are attained
REPAIR THE ROOT CAUSESRATHER THAN THE SYMPTOMS
Scatter Diagrams
Scatter Diagrams
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10000
15000
20000
0 2 4 6 8
Velocity & Complexity
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 25 50 75 100
Velocity & Value
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12.5
25
37.5
50
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Velocity & Coverage
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 22.5 45 67.5 90
Cumulative Flow Diagrams
SAMPLE BACKLOGWHAT MATTERS HERE IS THE STAGES OF WORK
CUMULATIVE FLOW DIAGRAMVELOCITY DOESN’T ALWAYS TELL US ENOUGH
What does this tell us?
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity
What does this tell us?
0
25
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75
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
Balanced Metrics
Balanced Metrics
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12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity
Balanced Metrics
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
12.5
25
37.5
50
Velocity Quality
Balanced Metrics
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
12.5
25
37.5
50
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours
Balanced Metrics
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
12.5
25
37.5
50
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team Joy
AttributionsPlanning By Velocity Photo
http://www.flickr.com/photos/carfull/4984803509/sizes/l/in/photostream/Are You Confident Photo
http://www.brookston.org/photoblog/images/20060113083815_thumbs_up.jpgHugh Laurie Photo
http://www.freakingnews.com/pictures/58000/Hugh-Laurie-with-a-Thermometer-58178.jpgBack to The Future
http://www.wallpaperdev.com/imageres/1920x1440-back-to-the-future-wallpaper-hd.jpgSuccess Baby
http://ncclassof2013.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/success.jpgDouble Dutchess (Standard Deviants)
http://www.mtviggy.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/double_dutchess.jpgMath is hard
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/files/2013/03/math.jpgPast Doesn’t Equal The Future
http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/402800_10151021129543907_1273189465_n.jpgYou’re not hearing me
http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2670/3948482669_93d49c1dc8_o.jpgAngry Tony
http://marcianitosverdes.haaan.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/TonyRobbins_thumb.jpgHolding you back
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/p480x480/382197_426710810746267_1475892304_n.jpg